I say no to this trade.

Lewis is just as effective at the 4 as Odom is, and I am still of the opinion that a two small forward lineup can win a championship next to Dwight. A core of Howard/Shard/Turk/Nelson/Pietrus is good enough to make noise.

Trading a player because we may not be able to keep him, but then getting a player with the same circumstances, is completely illogical to me.

Personally I don’t think Turk is better than Lewis, thus making him the 3rd best player on the team. Unless you don’t like Dwight Howard for some reason, though I suppose that’s arguable too.

Yeah I’m against this trade. I think it makes the Magic worse.

The Advantages of Lamar Odom

There’s no doubt that Lamar Odom improves the rebounding, he’d be a huge gain in that department, absolutely huge. Orlando would be a top 5 rebounding team or close to it with Odom on board. It’s also true that Lamar Odom had his best season under SVG and would excel if placed back into this system. It’s also true that Lamar is a very good fit alongside Dwight Howard.

Defensively I think Odom adds a little, but not a significant amount. Rashard did a pretty good job defending the four last year, and Hedo is a solid defender (comparable to Lewis as a perimeter defender) too. More different than better, because Odom does a better job altering shots as a secondary help defender.

The Perimeter Weakness

The problem is that the Magic’s roster couldn’t handle losing Hedo Turkolgu. Right now he’s the guy holding the whole perimeter together, his passing/playmaking/ballhandling/creativity is crucial to Orlando and make no mistake Lamar Odom is nowhere near as good as Hedo in these departments. He’s also not as good in the open court. Odom is also a worse scorer and jump shooter.

Orlando’s trio of perimeter players – Lewis, Pietrus, Nelson – would be the worst of any contender in the league. Look through the list of team’s you think have a chance of contending for a Championship, in how many scenarios is Rashard Lewis is the worst out of the single best player on each team’s perimeter? In how many cases is the other team’s trio superior to the Magic’s trio?

That trio of perimeter players would leave the team’s offense lacking any imagination and would seriously lack penetration (already an issue, one which gets bigger with the loss of Hedo) making Orlando overly vulnerable against good defensive squads. Then teams that defend the post well (like Detroit) and the issues get more serious.

Clutch and Very Much Not

Hedo Turkoglu is also the team’s best player in the clutch. Where was he in fourth quarter scoring last year across the whole NBA? Top 5 right? I think it was fourth. He put the team on his back time and time again in tough pressure filled situations. He was the team’s go-to guy, their best scorer and their best creator.

Where’s Lamar Odom under pressure? How does he do in big games? Where does his scoring go? Where does his playmaking go to? his whole offensive game vanishes with regularity. This isn’t just with the Lakers, it was the same in Miami and with the Clippers.

Remember Miami made that nice playoff run when Lamar Odom was there. Have a look at the closeout games in that final series against Indiana = Lamar went 6-15 from the floor, and followed that up with a 5-17 display that ended Miami’s season. In the previous series Miami went up 3-1 and had a chance to end the series, Lamar vanishes again, he goes 3-12 from the floor with 6 turnovers. He had one good game (game 6 first round 16/9/3) out four in closeouts.

Gone is Orlando’s fourth quarter offense and suddenly Jameer Nelson and Rashard Lewis are asked to step up and create off the bounce at a championship level … what odds do you give that? That scares the life out of me.

Inconsistency

This ties in to the previous point (poor under pressure) but I thought it deserved it’s own header

Look at Lamar’s final two series last season against San Antonio and Boston = 3-for-12, 7-for-10, 2-for-11, 4-for-9, 5-for-10, 6-for-11, 5-for-11, 2-9, 8-for-11, 8-for-10, 2-for-8. His scoring was 12.8ppg against San An, and 13.5ppg against Boston.

Lamar Odom’s performances are up and down like a yo-yo. He’s completely undependable.

Second Option

Lamar Odom has to be the second option on the Orlando Magic. This isn’t about points. It’s about touches and levels of offensive responsibility, it’s a mixture of scoring and creating for others. There’s no other option. Rashard Lewis doesn’t create for others. He’s a very good scorer who can give 20+ppg a night, but he won’t get Pietrus or Tony Battie easy shots. He won’t limit the burden on Nelson’s shoulders.

This is a man who cannot function as a go-to offensive threat. This is a man who spent three and half seasons in LA failing to supply Kobe Bryant with a good enough second option to succeed. This is a man who was scoring 13 points a game before Pau Gasol came around and made him look good. Odom consistently failed to be a good second scoring option and on a team that desperately needed him to be so.

Lamar Odom has to be the second option. He’s worse at that in every respect to Hedo Turkoglu … now add in the inconsistency, the floundering performances under pressure, and this next part .

Matches Up Badly With The East + Easy To Limit

Also consider how easy Lamar Odom is to stop or at least limit. KG will take him out of the series from the tip off. So will Detroit. Any power forward with good athleticism can contain Lamar Odom.

I’ll put some numbers out there, this is not a small sample, this 48 games. KG has owned Lamar Odom throughout his career. Lamar struggles his way to 14ppg and 7rpg on 41% shooting all below his career numbers, meanwhile KG pummels him in every category. Why is this important? Who do Orlando have to beat to win the East? Boston. Who’s Lamar Odom going to be matched up with? KG.

Now add in how important he is to Orlando’s offense with his passing/creativity/scoring … that series is over before it’s begun. Boston’s perimeter defenders will all load up on the ball-handlers and choke Orlando’s offense. KG will keep Odom quiet and suddenly Dwight is stuck on an island. It’s not a pretty picture.

Look at Odom’s performances against Detroit over the past few years, they’re every bit as concerning. His more recent matchups (last two years) against the Cavs raise red flags too. His performances against Elton Brand are a bit better but still below his career numbers. That gets worse and more inconsistent (odd good games sandwiched between poor performances) the more you look at his recent games against Elton.

Lamar Odom has all the skills in the world but he doesn’t use them intelligently and that’s his curse. That’s why he’s never been an All-Star and his nowhere near the quality of top power forwards or small forwards in this league. He’s a high level starter who’s maddeningly inconsistent and struggles under pressure. He’s completely undependable.

Finances

From a financial perspective it does nothing to aid the Magic either. He’ll cost just as much as Hedo to keep around in 12 months time.

Conclusion

So I’m against the trade. You can’t win if you depend as much as the Magic will on a Lamar Odom.

Now if you want to flip Hedo for Rashard Lewis I’m all for the trade. Instead of being the second option he’s now the third option, and has guys that make up for his flaws on either side of him (Hedo-Dwight). A Hedo-Odom partnership would be extremely difficult to defend because both guys can take you off the dribble, plus you get the rebounding …. and all the financial gifts although some of that would likely vanish with whatever throw ins you’d have to accept.

…………………………………………………………………………………………..

These types of trade ideas are great because there are lot of merits and demerits to them, it helps you focus in on what identity you want the team to build, and oftentimes that identity is the reason why you like or dislike a trade. So do I know what identity I wish the Magic had? Yes.

That identity is an inside-outside combination. Dwight Howard is on the inside and dominating, and I want him to have an outlet on the perimeter who can break down the defense when it collapses all over him. I want someone who can both score and create. I’d like someone who can shoot from distance but also needs to be a talented penetrator off the dribble. I want inside-outside combination like Wade-Shaq or Kobe-Shaq or Drexler-Olajuwon or Magic-Kareem.

I don’t think player necessarily needs to be an MVP candidate like Dwyane Wade but he likely needs to be either be (1) an All-Pro level player, or, (2) an All-Star level performer who plays alongside another All-Star caliber player - which Orlando already have in Rashard Lewis - which opens up more options for Orlando. That means players like Brandon Roy or Joe Johnson would work and take this team to the next level.

A trio of Odom-Lewis-Dwight does not fulfill the identity I want. It also creates an imbalance throughout the roster, making Orlando overly vulnerable on the perimeter and also raises questions on the quality of top scoring options. So I’m very much against this trade idea … strongly so.

The Trouble Of Trading Hedo

This all deals with a higher issue and that’s the inherent complications of trading Hedo Turkoglu. It’s going to be extremely difficult for Otis Smith to organize a trade that benefits Orlando. Hedo contributes too much to this team and has too many complications in any trade proposal.

Then there’s the extra issues such as his salary, then the likely cost of an extension, and the lack of security that he’ll be there beyond one season, and several will see him as a system player or a fluke season player. That’s four massive issues making any trade involving Hedo Turkoglu more complicated.

You add in all the above complications and you very unlikely to find a team willing to part with a player talented enough to improve Orlando’s team.

Anyway, that’s my take on it.

Let’s just replace Tony Battie with someone like Paul Millsap or Jason Maxiell in the offseason. Both those guys will be available for the MLE and will give that rebounding power forward the team needs. Then play big on the wings with Hedo-Lewis.

Maybe make a run at Drew Gooden. Or Varejao. Or Leon Powe in Boston.

There’ll be options to add a rebounding PF while allowing the team to keep their present core. The team won’t need a star four man, just someone who can be a quality role player and fix some holes in the squad.

If savings need to be made, someone like Pietrus or Nelson can go and be replaced by cheaper options.

No thanks, no thanks a million times. If we’re going to trade Hedo – and I still think we should, purely for value reasons – we should be going for a tough, rebounding power forward. Someone who can help out Dwight around the basket. I like Odom fine as a player, but he’s not a true power forward and he’s not going to take enough pressure off Dwight. Plus, he doesn’t like being a third wheel in an offense, let alone a fourth or lower wheel and if Hedo goes you can bet #2 becomes Lewis.

Odom just doesn’t fit.

I don’t know if the Heat would have the same interest in Hedo, Battie and Reddick, but if so maybe a trade with those guys for Shawn Marion? Or if the Heat wouldn’t want them, then maybe a 3-way with Odom to Miami, Marion to Orlando and the above 3 to LA? Supposedly Riley really likes Odom and wants him back, and Marion’s probably out of there this summer anyway. He’s not a “true” power forward, but he can rebound and score extremely well and is more versatile at both ends of the floor.