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Is Joe Smith The Answer?

In case you haven't read Ben's thoughts on Jameer Nelson earlier today, check it out. - ER

"Did those rumors say what we are giving up for him? What am I going to do with another big? Am I just collecting them?" Smith said with a laugh.

In leu of Orlando Magic GM Otis Smith's recent statement to the Orlando Sentinel denying his interest in acquiring an additional big man (OKC's Joe Smith), I decided to snoop around and see if this decision was good or bad for the team. 

 

A recent quote I came across by professor Dave Berri from the Wages of Wins Journal caught my eye regarding big men on elite teams (note: the following was written exactly a week ago) ..

"Cleveland (with Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Ben Wallace, and A nderson Varejao), Boston (with Kevin Garnett and Kendrick Perkins), and the Lakers (with Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum) have all found some success playing big players.  In other words, the top teams seem to think that bigger is better in basketball.

 

Perhaps the Magic could learn from the example of the NBA’s top teams."

Perhaps.

 

Given what was stated above, I felt it was important to see if the Magic's big men were up to snuff compared to the other top teams in the NBA. 

 

When comparing big men, I wanted to see how Orlando stacked up against strictly the Eastern bloc (Boston, Cleveland) of the triumvirate stated above. 

 

Team A

Player A - PER (13.42), ORtg (110), DRtg (100)

Player B - PER (19.05), ORtg (120), DRtg (94)

 

Team B

Player A - PER (17.08), ORtg (123), DRtg (96)

Player B - PER (12.80), ORtg (113), DRtg (95)

 

Team C

Player A - PER (13.90), ORtg (103), DRtg (96)

Player B - PER (16.73), ORtg (113), DRtg (98)

 

Click after the jump to see the results. 

 

Star-divide

Orlando Magic

Tony Battie - PER (13.42), ORtg (110), DRtg (100) [16.5 min]

Marcin Gortat - PER (19.05), ORtg (120), DRtg (94) [10.7 min]

 

Cleveland Cavaliers

Anderson Varejao - PER (17.08), ORtg (123), DRtg (96) [26.1 min]

Ben Wallace - PER (12.80), ORtg (113), DRtg (95) [24.3 min]

 

Boston Celtics 

Kendrick Perkins - PER (13.90), ORtg (103), DRtg (96) [28.8 min]

Leon Powe - PER (16.73), ORtg (113), DRtg (98) [15.7 min]

 

I purposely left out the best big men, in this case Orlando's Dwight Howard, Cleveland's Zydrunas Ilgauskas, and Boston's Kevin Garnett, to see how each team's main "role-playing" big men stacked up against each other. 

 

As you can see, Orlando's crop of bigs actually compare favorably against Cleveland and Boston. Statistically, at least. In the case of Gortat, he has the best PER of the bunch but with such limited minutes, we can't be certain if he is able to maintain such a high output if granted more playing time. All we know for sure is that he has been highly productive with his minutes. If Gortat were to earn more PT, it's likely he would take some hits statistically but he probably would still be a productive player. 

 

Since it's been shown that Orlando's bigs are "good enough", they could probably help the team if they were granted more playing time. That way, the Magic can emulate the top teams and play some "big ball" of its own, as Berri suggests earlier in this post. 

 

With all that said ..

 

Would the Magic ultimately benefit from adding another big man like Joe Smith?

 

Here are his peripherals:

 

Joe Smith - PER (13.82), ORtg (111), DRtg (109) [20.3 min]

 

The one statistic that immediately jumps out is Smith's below-average DRtg (league average this year is 106.6). One may think that this is due to the fact that Oklahoma City plays bad defense, thus affecting the stats of each of the team's players a bit. This specific point has certainly had a small effect on Smith, but for his career, his DRtg stands at 106.  How about last year? Wh en Smith benefitted from playing on a good defensive squad in Cleveland? It made no difference, Smith's DRtg was 107 (league average last year was 107.5). 

 

Seeing how well the Magic have performed defensively this year, it probably would not be wise for the team to trade for Joe Smith. Sure, he may help Orlando a bit offensively, but he would hurt the team defensively .. thus nullifying his impact. Also, since its been shown that the Magic's current crop of big men are adequate, Smith doesn't appear to be needed. 

 

So to answer the question, is Joe Smith the answer?

 

No. 

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Excellent Post!

You showed what I had assumed, and that is simply that Joe Smith is not an upgrade over what we have right now. Would he be nice to add as depth? Sure. Is it worth a 1st round pick and Cook or JJ? Not so sure on that. I think Otis is making the right choice on this one and you laid out an excellent argument for why.

'Coach, Dwight is a nice guy. Dwight don't hit anybody. But Superman will knock the crap out of you.' - D12

by Eyriq the Red on Dec 30, 2008 9:24 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Thanks, appreciate it.

You’re right. Would he be nice to add as depth? I mean .. yeah, but the Magic already have a guy like that. His name? Brian Cook. Sure, Smith is the better player but they would both be serving the same purpose in this instance. Orlando doesn’t need that ..

.. what they do need is a back-up PG. Anthony Johnson is, well .. terrible. That’s the trade Otis Smith needs to make to really solidify Orlando as a whole.

Senior Writer for DePaul's Scout.com website

by erivera7 on Dec 30, 2008 9:38 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

JJ & second rounder for Jerryd Bayless?

Would we do it? Would they? Does Jerryd Bayless even play PG?

by josh99 on Dec 30, 2008 10:34 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I’d do JJ & a 2nd for Bayless in a heartbeat .. but Portland would never do that.

Bayless is a shoot-first PG that has the size to play the 2 when a team wants to play small. He’d be a nice fit for Orlando, given his potential, but .. again, Portland would never trade him for JJ & and a 2nd, let alone trade him at all (for right now).

Senior Writer for DePaul's Scout.com website

by erivera7 on Dec 30, 2008 11:00 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I understand your point, which is fair

.. I agree that Smith is better (already stated it above) .. I just feel that he would be serving the exact same purpose if the Magic traded for him that someone on our team already fulfills in Brian Cook, depth. Yes, Smith > Cook .. but, in the end, there’s no difference in terms of the type of impact Smith would have, theoretically. That’s all I’m really saying, in essence.

Senior Writer for DePaul's Scout.com website

by erivera7 on Dec 31, 2008 12:28 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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