Orlando Magic News for January 12th: The Magic and Jameer Nelson in the Spotlight; Courtney Lee in the Starting Lineup; and Brian Cook and J.J. Redick on the Block

by Ben Q Rock on Jan 12, 2009 5:11 PM EST in News Comment 24 comments

Lots to get to today.

John Hollinger has seen enough of the Magic to assert that they are indeed elite:

The Orlando Magic have no history of playoff success, and don't have one of the uber-stars like Kobe Bryant or LeBron James (no disrespect to Dwight Howard). They only have one perennial All-Star on the roster. Their guard play can be spotty, they don't always play well with leads and their best player can't make foul shots and is prone to turnovers.

Yet after this weekend, it's impossible to ignore the reality any longer: The Magic are legitimate championship contenders.

High praise from one of the game's noted statisticians and thinkers.
Jameer Nelson is currently the front-page story on the NBA page Sports Illustrated's website; here's a screengrab for posterity. The headline? "EXCLAMATION POINT". Paul Forrester's story is well worth the read. Here's an excerpt:

"Every offseason I try to get with a shooting coach and concentrate on my form. But last summer I wanted to try it by myself," said Nelson, who shot 45.7 percent from the field in his first four seasons.

"I tried to make 1,000 shots a day and stuck with a routine one of my old college coaches, [former St. Joe's assistant] Matt Brady, gave me two summers ago. I also tried to incorporate some things to help me use my left hand a little better. It's working out right now."

Yeah, I'll say. Meanwhile, here's an insightful quote from Nelson about his personality:

"Over the last year, I was trying to make myself into a guy who sets the team up and does things the right way as a point guard, but from an individual standpoint, that wasn't working. So I went back to being aggressive and taking shots through our offense. I never try to force anything, but at the same time, I'm trying to put pressure on the defense at all times."

Last year, his saying that would have caused an uproar in some Magic fan communities ("ZOMG HE'S A SHOOT-FIRST POINT GUARD!!!1") but now it's like, dude, just keep doing your thing. Because it's working.
Stan Van Gundy is on the record as saying that Courtney Lee is this team's starting shooting guard. From Brian Schmitz of the Orlando Sentinel:

"We're planning on right now that Courtney's our starter," said Van Gundy. "I never say never to making changes anywhere, but right now it's not going to be an in-or-out thing. That's the way we're going to go right now.

"J.J.'s playing well. He'll be the first guard off the bench. And we'll go from there."

I wonder what happens to J.J. and Keith Bogans when Mickael Pietrus returns from injury. Right now, my guess is Bogans will fall even further out of the rotation, and maybe even find himself on a plane out of town as part of a trade near the deadline, which is February 19th.
Interesting trade-related note from Truth&Rumors:

The Magic have been a constant in NBA rumors circles, namely because the team is very thin at the point guard position. The Magic have been rumored to have entertained trades involving forward Brian Cook and fan favorite J.J. Redick, both player [sic] played extended minutes last night and shot the ball very well from outside.

[....]

The constant roadblock to a deal according to sources near the Magic is the commitment to the team's unique chemistry.

The way J.J. is shooting right now, it wouldn't make sense to part with him, especially with Bogans' season-long struggle and Pietrus' fragility. Cook isn't an integral part of this team on the court, and I don't get the sense he's much of a locker-room presence either. If Otis Smith gets the chance to swing him for a serviceable backup point guard, even a rental, he should do it. Anthony Johnson is just not cutting it as a backup. Were it not for Jameer Nelson's breakout season, we'd all be clamoring for Carlos Arroyo to return from Israel, where he's playing professionally these days.
Dwight Howard was named the Eastern Conference Player of the Week after leading the Magic to a 4-0 record, um, last week.

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JJ over Bogans?

That is actually tougher than you’d think. I know JJ is all the rave right now but Bogans is mister reliable. Plus I’m getting the feeling that JJ has the better value. The bottom line to me is that in a pinch Bogans makes the better starter, and believe it our not is the more reliable clutch player.

Needless to say it will be interesting to see what happens. 4 sg’s, when they are all healthy, is overkill.

'Coach, Dwight is a nice guy. Dwight don't hit anybody. But Superman will knock the crap out of you.' - D12

by Eyriq the Red on Jan 12, 2009 5:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Bogan is having a terrible year, though. His PER is horrendous. It's at 8.4.

Want to know what J.J.’s PER is? 9.2.

Case closed.

Senior Writer for DePaul's Scout.com website

by erivera7 on Jan 12, 2009 5:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'll say that I'm also curious to see how the guard situation plays out too.

It’s looking more and more as though Bogans will be the odd man out, though .. Pietrus being healthy for the remainder of the season is no guarantee so the Magic may need to hang onto Keith as insurance.

Senior Writer for DePaul's Scout.com website

by erivera7 on Jan 12, 2009 5:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'll add.

I hate repeating myself or even brag/bring attention to myself .. but Hollinger is a bit late to the party declaring the Magic title contenders. Sure, it’s nice to see him jump on board, but .. check back three weeks ago and you’ll see a certain someone on this blog declare essentially the same spiel.

Senior Writer for DePaul's Scout.com website

by erivera7 on Jan 12, 2009 5:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

You could argue Hollinger’s just a more objective judge.

If I claim the Knicks are title challengers and they win the title in 2029, there’s not a lot of value in being 20 years early.

by eltharion_doa on Jan 12, 2009 6:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Especially if it happens in 17 years instead.

Then you would just lose all credibility with me.

by funny80sguy on Jan 12, 2009 6:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That's fair to say, though I'd like to say I'm objective as well.

When I made my post, wasn’t like it was some fan-laded rant .. I provided pretty indisputable evidence to support my claim. But I get your point.

Senior Writer for DePaul's Scout.com website

by erivera7 on Jan 12, 2009 6:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Writing professionally for about two years before contributing on here has forced me to be that way.

It’s tough avoiding bias as a writer .. personally, I think it’s impossible. But I try to do the best I can to walk down a straight path when I write. That’s all I can guarantee.

Senior Writer for DePaul's Scout.com website

by erivera7 on Jan 12, 2009 6:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Random Thoughts???

Is it me or are the Spurs a team full of Whinners??? I’ve read some of their quotes from their local newspapers (Duncan is crying foul on last night’s officiating) and i watched the Post-game interviews with Pop ( who looked like he couldn’t believe he just lost to the MAgic, or in this case got sweep). Duncan can whine all he wants the bottom line was that the offensive foul he picked up for setting that screen was a legit call (He through his hip out), Bonner’s call was legit AND Manu’s flopping is really getting old…. The Refs last night got duked once with Finley’s dive but i thought after that they smart’en up and didn’t fall for that garbage…. The only reason Hollinger is giving us props now is because he HAS TOO…. Hollinger is apart of a looonnnnggg list of “Experts” who have hated on us from day one this year…. The ONLY one from ESPN that i can say gave us a little credit from day one is David Thorpe ( and he really didn’t do us any favors). thorpe goes to the Magic games so he knows how good this team is…..

by orltragic07 on Jan 12, 2009 5:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Well, the Spurs may be whiners but it got them 4 rings .. so why stop?

I agree that at this point Hollinger has no point but to crown Orlando as contenders. Like I said last night, all the critics out there are losing ammo with each Magic win.

Can’t blame the experts out there for questioning the team, however. Aside from a little playoff success last season, Orlando hasn’t done much to warrant any faith. But that perception is changing given how well the squad has played so far this season.

Senior Writer for DePaul's Scout.com website

by erivera7 on Jan 12, 2009 6:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hollinger has no choice*

Senior Writer for DePaul's Scout.com website

by erivera7 on Jan 12, 2009 6:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think that sounds more whiney then you intend it to.

I don’t think it’s a begrudging endorsement from Hollinger, or Stein, or any of the other media types who are now starting to write more about the Magic – they just needed stronger proof than what we’d given them. Respect has to be earned, and beating up on the teams we were beating up on isn’t the way to do it.

But now we’re beating good teams, and our record is in the same group as the Cavs and Celtics. Which is why we’ve inserted ourselves into the conversation.

I know it’s not fashionable to be anything other than a ludicrous homer for your team, but I really don’t think the mainstream media’s coverage of us has been anything abnormal.

by eltharion_doa on Jan 12, 2009 8:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Dwight & Kobe: Players of the Week

Magic are playing the Lakers this Friday where the 2 reigning players of the week face off. The last time this happened was when Jameer faced off against Chris Paul a few weeks ago. Let’s hope we get the same result of a Magic victory.

by funny80sguy on Jan 12, 2009 6:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Would be nice. The game will be on ESPN so it should be epic. I'm excited.

Senior Writer for DePaul's Scout.com website

by erivera7 on Jan 12, 2009 6:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

On the Jameer Nelson SI article

Long-time 3rd Quarter Collapse reader, first time poster. The most interesting part of the SI article, in my view, was Jameer’s quote about taking shots in the Magic offense. His assertiveness in taking those shots— and the Magic structuring their offense around his shot-making— is among the most important factors in explaining Jameer’s success. It simply took a few seasons for everyone, including Jameer himself, to realize that Jameer is best suited to playing as a shoot-first point guard.

But there’s another key reason for Jameer’s success: Hedo. Jameer’s offensive approach works in large part because Hedo, as point forward, shares playmaking duties with him. Hedo’s playmaking is so important for the Magic that his fairly inconsistent shooting and occasional mental lapses are comparatively minor.

…which raises the issue of how/whether to resign Hedo for next year. We should want to resign Hedo because point forwards are rare and we lack much flexibility to create playmakers at other positions. E.g., Rashard is not a playmaker and locked down at PF; Mickael is not a playmaker and (probably) locked down at SG. Two significant caveats to this point are the further emergence of Courtney Lee (who has not shown much in the way of passing so far, but who knows?) and future drafts/acquisitions (the latter constrained by our salary cap position). On the other hand, we may not want to sign Hedo because his price tag is too high (this issue made somewhat more manageable, perhaps, by his shooting slump) and/or because his age becomes an issue for any three year+ contract.

So what to do next with Hedo? I’d love to hear in-house “capologists” speculate on what the Magic can reasonably/should do with Hedo during the off-season.

by gift of the magi on Jan 12, 2009 9:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Welcome to 3QC! Glad to have you aboard.

I’ll go straight to the Hedo issue because that’s more of an urgent situation that needs to be addressed.

Right now, Hedo has a player option for next season. If he exercises that option, he’ll get paid roughly $7.3 Million. Before the season, Hedo indicated he’d opt out. Sure. But .. given the fact his numbers are down a bit, as well as the fact multiple teams are clearing cap space in hopes of landing a superstar in the highly anticipated 2010 FA class and are looking past next year, there’s a lot of obstacles in Hedo’s way when it comes to getting paid this coming off-season. Right now, signs point to him opting out but you never know. Things change. Everyone had LeBron gone to NYC, now he may just stay in Cleveland after all (or it could all just be a ruse, who knows).

The cap this year is just a hair under $59 Mill. and the luxury tax level is set at $71. The cap and luxury tax may rise a bit next season, but nothing too dramatic so with these current numbers (especially with the economy), we have a rough estimate of what the Magic are dealing with in terms of available cap space.

Foyle is off the books after this year. Bogans is off the books after this year. Cook is too, but he has a player option. Let’s just assume he bounces. That’s roughly $6.7 Mill. available right there .. let’s say Richardson & Wilks don’t come back. Now roughly $8.1 Mill. is free from the books. I haven’t even talked about Gortat yet, but let’s leave him out of the discussion for now.

In terms of what Orlando’s payroll looks like with the above players off from the team, there’s about $58 Mill. accounted for. Let’s just stick with the current Luxury Tax figure. It’s at $71 .. so, the Magic theoretically in this case have as much as $12 Mill. to offer Hedo. Is that too much? Probably but that’s what’s technically available for Orlando without surpassing the Luxury Tax. Assuming Cook exercises his option, then only $8.5 Mill. is available. Is that enough? Maybe .. (personally, I think that’s roughly Hedo’s value at this point, though he may beg to differ). And again, I haven’t even touched Gortat who’ll certainly be in for a raise if he stays (he has stated he may leave for Europe though). Or the fact the Magic will have an incoming rookie from the ‘09 Draft that will eat up money. Or the fact an NBA team is required to carry at minimum, a 13 man roster. In this scenario I’ve been blabbing about, only 9 players are accounted for (including Gortat, not including Hedo). So ..

It’s tough .. the Magic are cutting it real thin but if GM Otis Smith is savvy enough, he could make something work. Also, depending on how much the salary cap will increase, Orlando may get enough precious millions to throw at Hedo (but there’s no guarantee with this economy that the cap will increase a little bit, if at all). It also depends on how the landscape looks once the season is over. There’s just too many variables to take into account right now but that’s the best answer I can provide.

Senior Writer for DePaul's Scout.com website

by erivera7 on Jan 12, 2009 9:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry for the rant. I didn't even answer the question.

If the Magic can re-sign him, they should try. If they can’t, then obviously Otis needs to make sure he gets some value out of Hedo and doesn’t let him walk (sign and trade, for example).

Senior Writer for DePaul's Scout.com website

by erivera7 on Jan 12, 2009 9:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

thanks so much...

…for your thorough response re: resigning Hedo.

I agree with your bottom line: The Magic should resign Hedo if they can, and especially if they can limit the contract length to 3 years. If the Magic cannot/decide not to resign Hedo, then— given Jammer’s shoot-first mentality— they must try to find a starter-quality non-PG playmaker (ballhandling + passing ability).

That’s a tall order, I fear.

by gift of the magi on Jan 12, 2009 10:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No problem.

It’s a tall order, I agree .. but for the most part, I trust both Otis Smith’s & Stan Van Gundy’s judgment when the time comes to make a collective decision.

Senior Writer for DePaul's Scout.com website

by erivera7 on Jan 12, 2009 10:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

very thorough job.

You guys don’t get enough props on your attention to detail. I promised early in the season to help with game recaps and etc., however my work schedule has changed dramatically. I will still fulfill this commitment as my time gives me the opprortunity. I’d love to be involved with these conversations more.

by hevchv on Jan 14, 2009 9:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs