Jameer Nelson, the All-Star?

by erivera7 on Jan 3, 2009 2:30 PM EST in Analysis Comment 8 comments

Before the season began, the question in the title would seem preposterous to pose. Jameer Nelson and All-Star, in the same sentence? Prior to this year, the constant critique of the Orlando Magic has always been .. "a team in need of an upgrade at point guard."

Turns out that position has been upgraded.

Exit Jameer Nelson, enter JAMEER NELSON.

For the goof, I googled 'Jameer Nelson All-Star' into the search engine just to see what would come up. My MacBook proceeded to crash. The first result I received was an article written by Dime Magazine, roughly two weeks ago. The piece was simple .. it just asked the reader if Jameer Nelson is an All-Star? If you scroll down below, you'll see a plethora of comments ranging from "No, No, No" to other more graphic responses.

Needless to say, those people couldn't be more wrong.

Jameer Nelson IS an All-Star, though unfortunately given the current setup determining the All-Star rosters .. he'll probably get snubbed. Doesn't change the fact Nelson is deserving of having the title, All-Star, next to his name.

With the help of some data, I'll show why.

Click after the jump to see the results.

Just recently, Basketball-Statistics released its first Overall Composite Score numbers of the 2008-09 season. Click here for an in-depth explanation about this rating system.

Essentially, the purpose of the OCS is to use a combination of six (three offensive/three defensive) advanced statistical metrics and adjust them based on the player's position & playing time. The result is a rating that determines how good a player is.

The average score is set at 0.

-40 and below: Terrible
-40 to -20: Very bad
-20 to 0: Below average
0 to 20: Above average
20 to 40: Very good
40+: Elite

In ranking the players, Basketball-Statistics uses a percentile-based system. For example, the Magic's Dwight Howard places in the 98th percentile among NBA centers ac cording to their rankings .. meaning he's better than 98% of the players at his position in the League.

The OCS of a player isn't the 'end all, be all' determiner for how good/bad he is. However, the rating provides nice supporting data when placed alongside other advanced statistics (like PER, for example).

So .. looking into the numbers, here's what pops up for Orlando's Jameer Nelson.

Nelson

Minutes Per Game (31.4)

OCS - 65.54 (95.05%)

PER - 20.76 (t-4th)

To put that number in perspective, here's what pops up for Boston's Rajon Rondo and New Jersey's Devin Harris.

Rondo

Minutes Per Game (31.7)

OCS - 78.86 (97.83%)

PER - 19.93 (7th)

Harris

Minutes Per Game (36.8)

OCS - 48.43 (89.78%)

PER - 25.40 (2nd)

As you can see, Nelson fares well statistically when pitted against Rondo & Harris. Between the trio, 'Meer ranks second in OCS & PER. Who's the best of the three? There's no wrong answer to be honest.

Given the fact both Rondo & Harris appear to be locks as reserves on the All-Star roster for the Eastern Conference, by simple logic, wouldn't that mean Nelson would be a shoe-in as well?

Again, the stats don't lie.

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Comments

I've always been pro-Jameer

However, if we go by the Hedo Turkoglu all-star snub from last year where that was Turk’s first great year statistically, Jameer will probably not make the all-star team this year due to this being his first really good year (not that the past few years were that bad). If he produces these numbers next year though, Jameer is a shoe-in for the all-star game.

Other than the obvious that it makes the Magic better, I love that Jameer is producing at an awesome rate this year. I’ve been a huge fan of his ever since I read about his organizing the team getting together in the summer a couple of years ago and paid for it out of his own pocket. I love his leadership for this team. Even though he probably has been the leader since his 3rd year in the league, this year he is a much more effective leader because he is also now one of the better players on the team (arguably the 2nd best behind Howard; although, I wouldn’t get uptight over it if somebody said Turk, Rashard or Jeremy Richardson were better than Jameer).

I guess it also helps that Anthony Johnson is the backup this year because it forces Jameer to produce for 2.5 players (AJ, of course, producing for the remaining -0.5 players where whatever move he makes for the Magic somehow helps the opposing team). Last year, there were legitimate debates for Carlos Arroyo to start (mostly because he sucked as a reserve and was only really effective while starting) or for Keyon Dooling to take more minutes away from Jameer. Otis Smith really made a nice call by removing Jameer’s buffers and forcing him to take more responsibility. Jameer is thriving with the increase pressure.

by funny80sguy on Jan 3, 2009 3:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Jameer has proven to be a phenomenal player before.

Lest we forget his time at St. Joe’s, when he was the National Player of the Year. The kid could always play .. it just seemed that there was always a player in his rearview mirror threatening to take his job the past few years in Orlando. It’s clear that once Otis Smith eliminated those threats once and for all, Jameer could rest easy. It’s shown in his play this year .. his confidence is sky high.

It’s a shame that Jameer will get snubbed because the Magic deserve to have a second play represented alongside Dwight in the All-Star Game. Oh well.

Senior Writer for DePaul's Scout.com website

by erivera7 on Jan 3, 2009 5:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Rashard has a chance to make it

Been there before (once), leading the team in scoring, second-best player on the third-best team in the conference (and fourth in the league)…

Call it the Dwight Howard Bonus.

Third Quarter Collapse: An Orlando Magic blog at SB Nation

by Ben Q Rock on Jan 3, 2009 7:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed.

’Shard is the more realistic choice, obviously. Nelson just has too much competition ahead of him .. Lewis, not so much. Be interesting to see how it plays out. I have an idea .. but things can always change quickly.

Senior Writer for DePaul's Scout.com website

by erivera7 on Jan 3, 2009 8:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs