Tom Ziller of Sactown Royalty pointed out this formula to his readers earlier this year when trying to project how well the Kings would do on a five-game homestand. In the interest of mere curiosity, I've applied the formula to the Magic's next six games. Here's what it bore out:

If this prediction holds true, we'll go 4-2 over our next 6 games, which would bring our record to 20-9. Although that'd lower our season win percentage a bit, from .696 to .690, I'm sure that we'd be happy with that, especially given the way we've been playing lately.

That said, I'm not that optimistic. The formula takes into account winning percentages of both teams, as well as a variable that accounts for home-court advantage. What it doesn't take into account is the visiting team's success rate in the home arena. We're awful against the Bobcats when we play them in Charlotte, with just one win in six visits there. Then again, they are the Bobcats, and we did crush them at home earlier this season.

Then again, the game against Dallas is fairly evenly split. We could eke out a victory there like we nearly did last season. And if we are able to beat Charlotte, we could conceivably go 5-1 over the next week-plus, only losing to the Celtics on their home floor, where they are undefeated.

So, that's what the numbers tell us. 4-2 during the next 6 games. What do you think?

I should note that the Magic's lineup may indeed be different by the time this next stretch of games is completed. Stan Van Gundy told reporters the following after last night's loss to Milwaukee:

"I'll give them two more games," he said. "If the intensity, the defensive mentality doesn't change, we will have to make some changes. Some guys have just gotten too comfortable in the lineup. Things came so easily for us in the first 20 games, and we haven't responded to the changes people have made against us."

Sounds like Jameer Nelson's starting job is in jeopardy. Keith Bogans' too, although he had scored in double-figures in four straight games before last night. Carlos Arroyo and Keyon Dooling, come on down...?

Jameer Nelson loses control of his dribble against the defense of the Milwaukee Bucks in the Magic's loss Wednesday night.
Photo by Gary Dineen, NBAE/Getty Images

The Magic played an uninspired, amateur, embarrassing game Wednesday night against the Milwaukee Bucks and fell by a final score of 100-86. Here's the boxscore. And here's a Bucks-centered recap from Frank of Brew Hoop.

I'll be brief: the Bucks wanted this game more than we did. They were quicker to every loose ball, sharper on offense, and outplayed the Magic in every phase of the game. Even when the Magic pulled to within 2 early in the fourth quarter, I never got the sense they were going to win. They had a chance, though: Hedo Turkoglu had a wide-open layup that would have tied the score, but he missed it short, and the Bucks never really looked back.

Here's how bad the game was: the Magic did not make a field goal for the final 9:22 of the third quarter. They even resorted to intentionally fouling Dan Gadzuric, a career 50% foul shooter, hoping to rebound his misses to create offense. I'm not an old guy or anything, but I have seen a lot of basketball games, and I've never seen a team intentionally foul in the third quarter. It was incredible... for all the wrong reasons.

I don't understand why the Magic don't go to Dwight Howard more. It seemed like they were content to jack three-pointers all game, which has to be a concern. One poster at MagicMadness, I don't remember who, noted in the open game thread that even when the Magic made their runs, it wasn't due to any offensive creativity or inspired play; instead, their shots just went in. It's like we have no Plan B. If the three-pointers aren't falling, we're a mediocre team -- or worse. The only solution I can think of is to give Dwight 20 shots a game. Pound the ball inside. See what happens.

I'd like to commend Keith Bogans and Jameer Nelson for their remarkably awful play tonight. Really, they went above and beyond the call of duty (doodie?), combining for 7 points on 3-of-14 shooting. How?! How does a starting NBA backcourt play so horribly against the Milwaukee Bucks, of all teams?!

It wasn't all bad, though. I mean, at least Rashard Lewis warmed up in the fourth quarter, hitting four three-pointers in the period. And Keyon Dooling was sharp off the bench, with 13 points. But overall, this game was a big stinker, and I think it's officially time to start worrying about this team. Really. At this point, I don't see how we're any better than last year's squad.

What a disgusting game. Our putridity will be on display on national TV Saturday night, as we'll take on the Bobcats in Charlotte on ESPN.

	vs.
8-12		16-6
Bradley Center
8:00 PM
Sun Sports HD
Probable starters:
Mo Williams	PG	Jameer Nelson
Michael Redd	SG	Keith Bogans
Desmond Mason	SF	Hedo Turkoglu
Yi Jianlian	PF	Rashard Lewis
Andrew Bogut	C	Dwight Howard

• UPDATE: The Orlando Sentinel reports that Rashard Lewis is a game-time decision tonight with neck spasms. If he's unavailable, James Augustine will get his first career start. James Augustine!
  • UPDATE: Lewis is available and will start. Carlos Arroyo will not play due to a sore left foot.
• I'm still battling a nasty cold. Six hours of sleep after an 18-hour day? Ben Q. Rock's life: Where Exhaustion Happens.
• It'd be nice to get Rashard Lewis back on track tonight, wouldn't it?  His swag, which he debuted against Milwaukee on opening night to the tune of 26 points on 9-of-13 shooting, has since disappeared. More of this, please.
• It'll be interesting to see if Jameer Nelson is on a short leash tonight. He has not played well lately and might start losing minutes to Carlos Arroyo.
• The Magic: 4th in eFG%. The Bucks: 29th in eFG% defense. Start raining threes!
• Check out Brew Hoop's preview of tonight's game from the Bucks' perspective. They're worried about Hedo Turkoglu, and rightfully so. He torched the Bucks for 24 points on opening night and averaged 21 per game against them last year.