I hate to clutter up the main page with posts (which I scheduled last night; thanks, SB Nation tech wizards! I love 2.0!), but we'd be remiss if we didn't acknowledge Keyon Dooling's 28th birthday. Dooling's played the best ball of his life this season, leading all Magic reserves with 8.1 points per game while shooting career-bests from the field (46.8%) and from the foul line (84.5%). He's also played great defense on opposing point guards. Case in point: this swat of Jannero Pargo's fast-break layup attempt on April Fool's Day was the best defensive play of the year by any Magic player, Dwight Howard be darned.

So, happy birthday, Keyon. Thanks for your fantastic play and effort this season, and we hope to see you back in Magic blue next season.

Lots of buzz hubbub surrounding last night's Magic/Hornets game. Let's check out the reaction from around the web...

• First, if you missed Keyon Dooling swatting Jannero Pargo's fast-break layup attempt, click here for the NBA.com highlight. I promise you won't get Rick Roll'd.
• Kelly Dwyer of Ball Don't Lie in today's Behind the Boxscore feature:

  I wrote a lot about this game, and I'll get to it in a sec, but the best summation about the back-and-forth comes from an email from Matt at Hardwood Paroxysm:

  "These two in a Finals would be fascinating. It may not be as interesting as Kobe vs. KG, but the basketball may not be better."

  Just the thought of the Lakers and Celtics (regardless of roster makeup) in the Finals leaves me giddy, and the thought of the Boston and Los Angeles rosters (forgetting, for a second, that the franchises in question are the Celtics and Lakers) in the Finals leaves me swimming. Either one works.

  And yet, for the two and a half hours of actual game action, man, it might be hard to top Orlando and New Orleans. I know we've seen some real crackers from the C's and Lakers games this season, this is just a hypothetical, but it's worth understanding that this was a terrific, terrific pairing.

  In case you missed it, Pat Garrity played 14 minutes last night. More from Dwyer:

  Pat Garrity cannot help an NBDL team.

  From another email, this one coming from a prominent scribe from another major sports site who also invented something called PER:

  "They have to sign another 4 to a 10-day. HAVE TO. This is ridiculous."

  Garrity's PER of 1.3 puts him below the lowest designation on the PER reference scale, which is "On the next play to Yakima." Maybe the Sun Kings could use a power forward...?

• Matt sent me an email as well:

  I take it back, you're not going to get swept in the first round. You have way too many offensive weapons and too much pure talent for that to happen. And the best part is, if you can get one on the road, you'll actually be in a pretty great spot, even against the beasts from the East.

  Nothing to be embarrassed about from this loss. Learning process, and a good one against a great team.

  Nothing to be embarrassed about except being outhustled when it counted, I guess. Still, losing to the Hornets by only a point is a result most teams would be happy with.

• At the Hive:

  Nothing like winning a game you have no business being in.

  Given our pathetic rebounding effort, we had no business winning either.

• Hornets247:

  • The Magic have some impressive pieces. I knew what to expect from Howard, but I didn't realize Lewis could D up like that, or that Hedo was so versatile. That dude has great handles for a guy listed as 6-10, and he has those big lunging steps that help him get by guys and finish in the lane. Very nice player.

  Nice to see some recognition for Lewis and Hedo. Something tells me they won't sneak up on people in the postseason, though.

• Basketbawful:

  Hedo Turkoglu cordially invites you to visit Peja Stojakovic's man region, and Peja's welcoming expression seems to say: "Go to that fertile land of gentle breezes where the peaceful waters flow."

  While Matt and John Hollinger emailed Dwyer with observations on the game itself, I emailed Basketbawful a silly picture of Hedo and Peja before the game. Perhaps I don't have my priorities quite in order.

The Magic's Hedo Turkoglu drives past the Hornets' Peja Stojakovic in New Orleans' 98-97 victory over Orlando on Tuesday night. Turkoglu scored a game-high 26 points, but Stojakovic had the last laugh on April Fool's Day, hitting the go-ahead three-pointer in the fourth quarter.
Photo by Kevin Kolczynski, Reuters

Damn. What a way to lose. The Magic dropped a tough one to the Hornets tonight, 98-97, despite having a lead as large as 14 points. Here's the boxscore.

The Hornets wanted this game more, and we only have to look at rebounding to see why. Their 21 offensive rebounds (in 49 opportunities) compensated for their poor field goal shooting. And make no mistake: the rebounds they got weren't balls that took lucky bounces. Jannero Pargo and Chris Paul both took boards away from Dwight Howard. That's a terrible showing on the defensive glass, and we didn't compensate by dominating on our end. Our final offensive rebound total -- 2 -- sets a new franchise low. Inexcusable.

Anytime Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis combine for 50 points on 31 shots, and we hit 13 three-pointers, we should win running away. Instead, the Hornets' extra effort put them over-the-top. They earned this win.

However, the officiating seemed suspect at times. As a rule, I never directly blame a loss on the referees' whistles; it's our fault for letting the game get close enough for a single call to swing momentum in either direction, and the officials weren't the guys beating the Magic to every loose ball. However, I should note the Magic were called for 25 fouls compared to the Hornets' 18. As a result, the Hornets enjoyed a solid 27-15 edge in free throw attempts. The game-changing play came when Maurice Evans was whistled for an away-from-the-ball foul when he got tangled-up with Morris Peterson. Replays showed Peterson clearly pushed Evans first, and fell because he merely lost his balance, but it didn't matter. Peja Stojakovic hit the penalty free throw, then drilled a three-pointer on the resulting possession -- just his second field goal of the night -- to give the Hornets a 96-95 lead they would not relinquish.

Final notes:

• The Magic got the final shot with a chance to win. Coming out of a timeout, Turkoglu inbounded the ball to Lewis, who drove to his right and... dished the ball to Keyon Dooling, who came up well short on the final shot. That's the best we could do? Yes, Tyson Chandler gave Lewis some trouble when he switched to cover him, but Lewis needed to be more aggressive and assertive.
• Sun Sports displayed a graphic at the beginning of the fourth quarter that showed the Magic have the fifth-best record of any NBA team when entering the fourth quarter with the lead. I called it a jinx as soon as it happened. Hate to say I told you so, ALRIGHT.
• Dwight Howard played 42 minutes, yet got just 9 shots from the field and 5 shots from the  line. He needs more touches if we expect to win.
• Jameer Nelson was a late scratch. Carlos Arroyo got the start at point guard, and had a game to forget: no points on 5 shots. Jameer might have been able to make the difference tonight.
• Think we miss Brian Cook? Pat Garrity took Cook's spot in the rotation, going 1-of-4 and registering a plus-minus rating of minus-14. Ouch.

We have a tough matchup Cleveland in a nationally televised affair on Saturday. BIG GAME for us. Sure, we're essentially locked into the East's third seed, but we need to come out and stomp the Cavaliers to show the league and its observers that we can't be written-off.

	vs.
47-27		50-22
Amway Arena
7:00 PM
Sun Sports
Probable starters:
Jameer Nelson	PG	Chris Paul
Maurice Evans	SG	Morris Peterson
Hedo Turkoglu	SF	P. Stojakovic
Rashard Lewis	PF	David West
Dwight Howard	C	T. Chandler
19 Nov 2007: Magic 95, Hornets 88

I did a double-take when I looked back in the archives and saw we beat the Hornets in our first meeting. Really? We beat the Hornets? Then I remembered that Chris Paul missed that game, and Tyson Chandler left early with a knee injury. So we eked-out a victory over a team missing the best point guard in the league and its All-Star caliber center. Forgive me if I'm not too enthusiastic about that win, which also happened to be the last time Trevor Ariza played in a Magic uniform; we traded him to the Lakers for Maurice Evans and Brian Cook the next day.

The New Orleans Hornets are really freaking good. 50-22, on top of the best conference in the NBA, and, by extension, on top of the best division in the NBA. But because they play in a small market, haven't gone on a huge win streak, and didn't make a huge trade this season, they're flying under the radar. For more on the Hornets, let's hear from Rohan, who writes for At The Hive.

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3QC: Chris Paul is a legitimate MVP candidate having arguably the best "pure" point guard statistical season (21.6 points, 11.3 assists, 2.7 steals, 49% shooting as of this writing) in the history of the league... and he won't turn 23 until May. How high is his ceiling? Can he -- or anyone else, for that matter -- play the position any better than he is right now?

Rohan: This guy is playing scary basketball right now. You put it well- he is indeed having the greatest year statistically in the history of the point guard position. His 28.8 PER eclipses anything Oscar Robertson, or Magic ever did; in fact the top 10 PER years by point guards are all Magic and Oscar, except for CP up at number 1. Right now there's nobody even close to Paul; Nash is posting a 21.1 (his best MVP year was 23.8), and he's the closest guy there is to Paul this year. In fact, Nash, Jose Calderon of Toronto, and Utah's Deron Williams are the only other guys in the 20's, but Paul is getting close to the 30's nonetheless.

Pretty much any Hornet telecast you tune into, you'll hear the announcers comparing Paul to another great, Isiah Thomas. Comparing with the same stage in Isiah's career, Paul shoots about 3 percent better, pulls down half a rebound more per game, shoots 12 percent better from the stripe and 4 percent better from long range, is about even on steals and assists, but impressively averages an entire turnover less. And according to Dean Oliver's DRtg stat, Paul is actually the better defensive point guard overall.

As far as his ceiling goes... let me just say, I'd be happy if he didn't improve from his current level at all. That said, there's two things I can pinpoint as areas of potential improvement. The first is a must- improving defensively against bigger point guards. I'm sure you've heard of his struggles against Deron Williams. The Jazz guard has about 4 inches and almost 40 pounds on him, which is huge. CP is going to have to learn to outsmart Williams on the court, and rely on his quickness to defend him. Utah's the one team I absolutely do not want to see in the playoffs, and the Chris Paul-DWill matchup is a large part of that. The second potential improvement isn't as much of a necessity- I want to see if Chris Paul can continue his fantastic improvement on jump shots. He came into the league at 45 eFG% and is currently at 53%. That's a testament to the work he's put in during the offseasons, and if he can ever come near Steve Nash levels (ie, 60%), playing against him would just be unfair.

3QC: In a Q-and-A session with ClipsNation, I gave Steve an opportunity to talk about how great Al Thornton is. So, in that vein, I'm giving you a few paragraphs to rave about David West, the Hornets' starting power forward and arguably the league's most underappreciated player. Have at it.

Rohan: Haha, I just kind of went off on Chris Paul, so this feels weird. Nevertheless, I'll gladly take the opportunity. West is one my favorites for one big reason: he gets maximum results out of his specific skill set. What I mean by that is West isn't as athletically gifted as the Howards (who is?), Amares, Odoms, or Garnetts of the world. When you watch him play, you won't be awed by an explosive first step or come from behind rejection into the eighth row. Even with Paul continually throwing alley-oop lobs, you'll never see West on the finishing end of one of those dunks. And he understands that. When he first broke into the league, I (and other Hornets' fans) came to know him as a tireless worker on the glass. Gradually, he improved his offensive game, year by year.

West is equal parts power and finesse- one of his go-to moves is powering his upper body into a defender, before taking a soft fall away jumper. Unlike most power forwards, he will give you a decent cross over as part of his drive to the hole. One thing you and your readers might not like though is that he'll be yelling every second of every minute of every game (at the refs). I'm stunned he hasn't gotten more technicals this year, but off the court, he's a really low-key and mild mannered dude.

3QC: Talk a bit about the job Byron Scott has done coaching this team. Certainly having the All-Star talent of Paul and West helps, but he's also turned the likes of Ryan Bowen, Rasual Butler, and Melvin Ely into regular rotation players. Is there a more deserving candidate for Coach of the Year?

Rohan: I say he's COY. First, I don't think he gets enough credit for the offensive system he's implemented in New Orleans. A lot of people will just point at Chris Paul and say it's pretty easy to coach with a point guard like him. However, they miss how well he's taught the other Hornets' players their specific duties on offense; New Orleans implements a highly complex variation of the Princeton offense. This allows the finds CP has to make to be a lot less risky; Peja Stojakovic is having one of the best seasons of his career due to the way Scott has set up the offense for him.

On the defensive end, Scott makes his case even stronger. In the last three years, the Hornets have jumped up in defensive efficiency rankings, starting at 20th, getting to 16th, and culminating at 9th. That's really impressive to me when you have a guy like Peja Stojakovic as a starter. Stojakovic isn't atrocious, but he's certainly a weak link; Scott specifically designs the defensive strategies, game to game, to cover for Peja through various types of help defense. On the player-coach interaction front, Scott has successfully integrated a known head case, Bonzi Wells, and a guy coming off a 2 year NBA ban, Chris Andersen, back into the rotation. That has to count for something.

3QC: Along the same lines, how about the work Jeff Bower has done in assembling this team? It really is hard to imagine better complements to Paul than Peja Stojakovic at the three and Tyson Chandler at the five. Does he deserve Executive of the Year consideration? Or is he just really, really, really good?

Rohan: Yeah, this team has been assembled through some very shrewd moves over the past few years. Number one is obviously the Chris Paul selection (by all accounts, New Orleans had him higher on their board than Deron Williams). The P.J. Brown and J.R. Smith for Tyson Chandler deal is looking brilliant. The decision to slowly elevate David West into the starting PF role (let alone giving him a chance as an undersized PF) instead of pursuing a big name free agent has worked out beautifully. Getting a three point shooter some pegged to be on the downside of his career has paid dividends. Most impressive, to me, was Bower pulling the trigger on acquiring Bonzi Wells, and reacquiring Chris Andersen. You have to understand that this was a playoff team with or without those two guys. Bower could've easily sat back, and have been absolved of any of the potential blame that comes with acquiring a head-case and a former drug user. Instead, he showed real commitment to building a bona fide contender- he put his own neck on the line for the good of the franchise. To me, that's worth just as much, if not more, than signing two big name free agents in one offseason (Boston).

3QC: This question's really just for fun. This year, the Hornets introduced an alternate logo, cleverly titled the "fleur de bee," to be worn on a jersey patch. What's your take on the fleur de bee? I ask only because I think it's the best alternate logo in the league, and because not enough people see it.

Rohan: Hahaha, you're right, it's indeed a clever play on the "fleur de lis" and props are in order to whomever coined that. I think it really showed the Hornets commitment (at the time it was released) to the city of New Orleans, with all the drama floating around about leaving the city. The city and its fans have just rewarded the franchise's commitment by showing up to games en masse these last two months.

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Thanks once again to Rohan for his insight. Check out his site, At The Hive, for more on the Hornets. Click here for my answers to his questions about the Magic, including my take on Rashard Lewis' contract. Another great resource for Hornets news and analysis is Hornets 247. There's also this great post about the Hornets at Hardwood Paroxysm.

As Biased Fan reminds us in this comment here at 3QC, a Magic victory over the Hornets tonight goes one step closer to helping the Jazz secure home-court advantage in the West. I think we owe them that much, since their drubbing of the Wizards last night sealed the Southeast Division title for us.

The tip's at 7 on Sun Sports, and there really is no excuse not to watch this game. Clear your schedule. Chris Paul should will be a joy to watch, even if when he's shredding our perimeter defense.

Get them donuts. Go Magic.

The Dream Shake posted its predictions for how the rest of the Rockets' season would play out. I shamelessly ripped-off was inspired by that post, and now submit a Magic-oriented version of it, with a mathematic twist. The "Prediction" column shows how I think we'll do. The "Worst Case" column shows what we'll do if Murphy's Law rears its ugly head. The "Pythagorean Odds" column shows our chances of winning, based on point differential. I'll explain more after the table.

Date	Opponent	Prediction		Worst Case		Pyth. Odds
21 March	vs. Philadelphia	W	46-25	L	45-26	.721
22 March	@ Atlanta	W	47-25	W	46-26	.641
25 March	vs. San Antonio	W	48-25	L	46-27	.611
28 March	@ Milwaukee	L	48-26	L	46-28	.769
1 April	vs. New Orleans	L	48-27	L	46-29	.576
5 April	@ Cleveland	W	49-27	L	46-30	.572
6 April	@ New York	W	50-27	L	46-31	.770
9 April	vs. Chicago	W	51-27	W	47-31	.803
11 April	vs. Minnesota	W	52-27	W	48-31	.886
13 April	@ Chicago	W	53-27	L	48-32	.645
15 April	@ Atlanta	L	53-28	L	48-33	.641
16 April	vs. Washington	W	54-28	L	48-34	.750
		9-3		3-9		12-0 (!)

I'm not sure how much stock you put into this metric, but if its predictions hold true -- that is, if the team that's predicted to win actually does win -- the Magic will run the table the rest of the way and finish with a record of 57-25. Likely? No. Possible? Practically and mathematically speaking, absolutely.

There are some caveats here, obviously. For one thing, I did not calculate the splits for home and road teams; that is, I considered only a team's overall point differential, not its respective home and road differentials. For another, the Cavaliers actually have a sub-.500 Pythagorean win percentage, mostly because of the games LeBron James missed. As a result of that discrepancy, the formula exaggerates our chances of winning that game. Considering that it's already the most difficult one on the schedule, I was pretty hesitant to predict a victory. But I did.

In the interest of full disclosure, the last time I used this formula on this site, it predicted we would go 4-2 over a 6-game stretch. The predictions held true in 4 of the 6 games. Another time I used the formula in my notebook, and the predictions held true in again in 4 of the 6 games. So it's certainly not infallible.

As you can see from my predictions -- which are far less interesting than the Pythagorean ones -- I believe there are only three games we are guaranteed to win: Saturday against Atlanta, April 9th versus Chicago, and April 11th versus Minnesota. Every other game could go either way, even the road games at Milwaukee and at New York. In fact, I guarantee a loss at Milwaukee next Friday. We're going to come out soft and complacent after several days of rest, and one unheralded Buck, possibly Royal Ivey, will post a career-high. Write it down.

So, just to prompt some discussion: what are your predictions for the rest of the season? Do you think we'll sweep the remaining 12 games, as the formula suggests we might? What's the biggest "trap game" left on our schedule?