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Final - 3.4.2008 1 2 3 4 Total
Toronto Raptors 18 23 27 19 87
Orlando Magic 20 24 27 31 102

Matchup Analysis: Dwight Howard vs. Rasho Nesterovic

This attitude is what the Magic need more of. From Dwight's comments after the Magic beat the Wizards on Wednesday:

"Everybody knows what LeBron did, everybody remembers," Magic center Dwight Howard said. "I want to be remembered."

[....]

"We want Toronto to feel like they're in hell."

I want Dwight to be remembered, too, and not just for the Superman dunk. He can ascend from Superstardom to, uh, Superduperstardom (?) if he can dominate in the playoffs. As much as we worry about not having anyone who can guard Chris Bosh, it's easy to lose sight of the fact that somebody on the Raptors has to guard Howard. On whom will the Raptors call? How has Dwight done against that person historically?

Enter Rasho Nesterovic, the veteran center who's having a career renaissance in April, averaging 16 points, 6 rebounds, and 60% shooting from the field. But the focus of this piece is defense, so let's get to it. 82games shows us that he held opposing centers to a PER of 13.8 this season. That's all well and good, but how did he and Dwight do against one another in the regular season? Let's take a look:

GameShared playing-timeDwight's StatsRasho's StatsNotesGameFlowPlay-by-Play
1 0:18 -- -- With just 18 seconds together, what'd you expect? PopcornMachine ESPN
2 8:42 2-3 FGs, 3-4 FTs, 7 pts 3-5 FGs, 6 pts
  • Dwight blocked Rasho once
  • Rasho fouled Dwight on a layup, leading to a three-point play
PopcornMachine ESPN
3 17:36 2-4 FGs, 1-2 FTs, 5 pts 0-5 FGs, 0 pts
  • Rasho fouled Dwight on a layup attempt, but Dwight made just one of the free throws.
PopcornMachine ESPN

These resources can't tell us who guarded whom in these stretches, so take the results with a grain of salt. However, it's reasonable to assume that Dwight and Rasho were indeed matched-up with one another. That was most evident in the third game, when the Raptors were without Bosh. Dwight scored 19 points in 29 minutes, but the play-by-play shows he did most of that damage when Rasho was off the floor. Overall, Dwight's total of 12 points in 26:36 against Nesterovic puts him on pace for 16.2 points per 36 minutes, well below his season average of 19.8 points per 36, which suggests that the Raptors can indeed rely on Nesterovic to contain Howard.

But can they afford to play him heavy minutes? Does he negatively impact the offense? While the Raptors are nearly 6 points worse per 100 possessions when Nesterovic is on the court, they shouldn't fret; when on the floor with the Raptors' other starters (T.J. Ford, Anthony Parker, Jamario Moon, and Bosh), Toronto outscores its opponent 82% of the time.

But...

When Dwight's motivated, he's awesome. After Stan Van Gundy famously called him out for his lack of effort, Dwight responded with a 23-point, 24-rebound effort against the Denver Nuggets, who employ Marcus Camby, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, at center.

So, one table and several paragraphs later, we're no closer to figuring out how Dwight will do against Rasho. Considering that Chris Bosh will get his points (probably 35 a game), and that Jamario Moon's athleticism poses problems for Hedo Turkoglu, it's important that Dwight at least scores at his usual rate. He's had trouble with Nesterovic in the past, but the playoffs are a different animal.

And so is Dwight.

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Happy Birthday, Adonal Foyle!

Adonal Foyle dunks the ball
Adonal Foyle celebrated his 33rd birthday a few days early when he threw down this tomahawk dunk in the Magic's win over the Raptors last Tuesday. Today, the Magic's backup center turned 33.
Photo by Fernando Medina, NBAE/Getty Images

Happy 33rd birthday to Adonal Foyle. He's not having a great year from a statistical standpoint, but he's invaluable in that he's still good enough to give Dwight Howard a few minutes of well-deserved rest each game. And say what you will about his abilities, but there's no denying that Adonal is usually the hardest-working, most determined player on the floor. Thanks, Adonal, for your hustle, commitment, and community presence. We appreciate it.

Leave your birthday wishes for Adonal in the comments. Be sure to check out this recent feature on Foyle from John Denton. There are donkeys involved.

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Off-Day Open Thread: J.J. Redick Madness!

J.J. Redick of the Orlando Magic poses for a portrait.
3QC is J.J.'s website. I just write on it.
File photo by Thearon Henderson, Getty Images

Remember when I linked to Mavs Moneyball's comprehensive rundown of the Jason Kidd trade? Well, I'm trying my hand at similarly covering J.J. Redick's season. 3QC user Brutalfacts wrote in this comment that he's "sick and tired of JJ, JJ talk, JJ speculation, discussion of JJ's future, JJ's whining about his 'role' and at this point just about everything JJ related." Sorry, Brutalfacts.

Note that some of the links in the 3QC stories below may have rotted. John Denton's forum automatically deletes threads after a certain amount of time has elapsed; ditto with the Orlando Sentinel's stories.

And without further ado...

So, what do you guys think about J.J.? Does he deserve a spot in the rotation? Does he have a future with this team? Did Otis Smith make a mistake in drafting him? Make yourself heard in the comments.

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Orlando Magic News for March 5th: Hedo Turkoglu Runs the Offense

Lots of hats to tip today.

  • Fox Sports' Charley Rosen watched the Magic/Raptors game last night and posted this analysis of Hedo Turkoglu's performance. He notes that Turkoglu got 59 touches in 40 minutes, and brought the ball up the court on 11 occasions. I'm interested to see if that latter trend continues; might Jameer Nelson play better off-the-ball? (HT: user Kwik10z at MagicMadness.)
  • The New York Times' website has a cool feature with former NBA coach Jeff Van Gundy breaking down ways to defend against the league's best players. Check out each animation, but pay special attention to the Ray Allen one. Although we don't play the Celtics at all for the rest of the regular season, we may face them in the playoffs. (HT: user "And One" from BallHype)
  • Doug Smith of the Toronto Star reports that Toronto center centre Primoz Brezec didn't appreciate Stuff hanging around the Raptors' bench... so he punched him. Pretty pathetic on Primoz's part, but I'd rather him take his frustration out on Stuff than on, say, Dwight Howard. (HT: Ball Don't Lie, which just got a makeover)
  • Brian Schmitz apologizes to blog readers who got their hopes up for a J.J. Redick sighting last night. One emailer wrote the following:

    Well I finally thought I was getting something for my $ 159 league pass upon seeing today's articles. So I sat down with a nice Merlot. Someone down there owes me a bottle of wine.. and cheese.

    I'm sorry, too; it's sad that there are people out there who can't enjoy a basketball game unless their favorite player gets some burn. Don't get me wrong: I want to see J.J. play. He deserves a chance. But if he doesn't, my night isn't ruined. Then again, I didn't shell out $ 159 for a premium cable package.

  • Speaking of players who inspire similar fair-weatheredness, Carlos Arroyo may be a free-agency target for the Knicks this summer, says Marc Berman of the New York Post. I doubt the Magic have much interest in re-signing Carlos -- if it came down to keeping him or Keyon Dooling, Otis Smith would choose Dooling 10 times out of 10 -- and the Knicks need a point guard. Makes sense to me, although I'd hate to lose Carlos' relatively consistent play and community presence. (HT: user "kcudah" from BallHype)

I'm off to the haberdashery, but should be back in time for tipoff. Don't forget to check out the game thread for tonight's Magic/Wizards game.

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Orlando Magic 102, Toronto Raptors 87

Hedo Turkoglu of the Orlando Magic shoots a basket against the Toronto Raptors
Orlando's Hedo Turkoglu fires a jump-shot during his Magic's 102-87 victory over the Toronto Raptors on Tuesday night. Turkoglu lead the Magic with 24 points and 8 assists.
Photo by Fernando Medina, NBAE/Getty Images

The Magic managed to defeat the Raptors fairly convincingly, 102-87, on Tuesday night despite only grabbing two offensive boards and having their bench outscored 40-20. The reason? Timely scoring from Dwight Howard and from Hedo Turkoglu, an efficient offensive game from Rashard Lewis, and an opponent playing without its best player.

Neither team played inspired ball in the first half, but the Magic put it together in the early stages of the fourth quarter, letting T.J. Ford single-handedly grind his team's offense to a halt. Ford took the Raptors' first eight shots in the final frame, scoring 13 points in that span. However, he also committed 4 turnovers, which the Magic converted into eight points. By the time any other Raptor did anything offensively in the fourth quarter, Toronto trailed by 9 points, and never got closer than 7 the rest of the way.

Hedo Turkoglu came through in the fourth quarter once again, scoring 7 points, but it was Dwight Howard who went berserk. He made all 7 of his shots in the quarter, most of them dunks. Toronto was helpless to stop Dwight Without Chris Bosh to force him further away from the basket.

Four big surprises this evening:

  • The Magic made Jose Calderon look ordinary. Calderon finished with only three assists, which is the second-lowest total he's had as a starter this season. Certainly, we can attribute that low total to the Raptors' anemic shooting, but certainly we should give some credit to Carlos Arroyo and Jameer Nelson for pestering Calderon.
  • Marcin Gortat played and J.J. Redick didn't. Marcin played in his second straight game, recording a rebound in 37 seconds. Earlier today, it appeared as though J.J. would finally get his chance to shine, but Keith Bogans recovered from the abdominal strain that might have kept him out and played 25 solid minutes, making two three-pointers in that span. The starter, Maurice Evans, played 26 minutes and did nothing with them: 2 points (1-of-7 shooting). That poor showing, coupled with Marcin's stint, begs the question: What does J.J. have to do to get into the rotation?!
  • The Raptors shot poorly, especially from three-point range. Toronto boasts the league's sixth-best effective field goal percentage (.514), but posted an effective field goal percentage of just .420 this evening. Without Chris Bosh drawing double-teams, the Raptors weren't getting the wide-open looks to which they are accustomed.
  • Rashard Lewis is coming around: Quietly, Rashard Lewis is shredding opposing defenses. He's scored 104 points on just 68 shots (!) in our past 5 games. During that span, we're 4-1.

No rest for the weary for us, though. We're off to Washington to see the Wizards tomorrow night. They'll be without the services of their two best players: Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler. A loss tomorrow night will be inexcusable. For what it's worth, Denver's Carmelo Anthony dropped 49 points (on 25 shots!) on the Wizards last month. Might Rashard Lewis or Hedo Turkoglu have a similarly impressive outing tomorrow night? One can only hope, but coming away with a win is clearly a higher priority.

NBA.com has your Magic/Raptors boxscore hookup. For more coverage of this game, visit Bold 'n' Blue,  Orlando Magic Blog, and the Orlando Sentinel. And Dinosty

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Halftime in Orlando: Orlando Magic 44, Toronto Raptors 41

Neither team looks like it wants to play. The Magic and Raptors have combined to shoot 36-of-92 from the field, or 39%. Dwight Howard has scored just one point for us in 12 minutes, hampered by foul trouble. He does have 10 rebounds, though, so there's that. If he can keep his hands to himself, he should get plenty of touches in the second half, and shouldn't have too much trouble with Rasho Nesterovic and Primoz Brezec.

Rashard Lewis came to play tonight, that's for sure. He leads all scorers with 13 points; additionally, he recorded a beautiful steal on a crosscourt pass, which he took the other way for an easy dunk. Actually, that may have been the only dunk in the game so far...

No sign of J.J. Redick, as Keith Bogans indeed felt well enough to play. He saw just 3 minutes of playing time, but so far he's impressed more than Maurice Evans has; Mo is 1-of-6 from the field and 0-for-4 from downtown... in 17 minutes. Not very good.

This game has been pretty hard to watch, yes. Hopefully, the teams will pick up the intensity in the second half. I suspect that may happen, as this game parallels the 96-93 victory over Boston in late January: the Magic are matched-up, at home, in a nationally televised game, against an Eastern conference foe missing its best player. If that holds true, the Magic will pull away in the third period thanks to a three-point barrage from Brian Cook, only to watch the lead slip away in the fourth period.

Final note: We absolutely need to get a hand in Jose Calderon's face. By my unofficial count, he's hit his last four field-goal attempts.

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Povtak: J.J. Redick Could Get "Significant Playing Time" Tonight against Toronto

Tim Povtak has this report from the Magic's practice this morning. Jameer Nelson feels well enough to play tonight after sitting out Saturday's game with the flu virus, but Keyon Dooling (sprained left foot) and Keith Bogans (strained stomach muscle) are out and doubtful, respectively. Thus, J.J. Redick will get to play significant minutes backing up Maurice Evans at the two-guard.

The door is wide-open for J.J. If he brings it tonight against one of the East's best teams, he'll have proven something. If not... well, opportunities like this one don't come around very often. Hell, on Friday, the Sentinel published a report which stated Redick would return to the end of the bench. In light of that, Jonathan Clay Redick had better play his heart out tonight if he wants to carve his way into the rotation for the playoff push.

UPDATE: Keith Bogans will try to play, says Brian Schmitz. I doubt he'll get much burn, though. How effective can Bogans be if he has a strained stomach muscle? And isn't a healthy (not to mention motivated) J.J. Redick better than an ailing Bogans? I think so. We'll see if Stan Van Gundy agrees.

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Tonight's Game: Orlando Magic vs. Toronto Raptors

Orlando Magic main logo
vs.
Toronto Raptors main logo
38-23 32-26
Amway Arena
7:00 PM
FSN Florida, NBA TV
Probable starters:
Carlos Arroyo PG Jose Calderon
Maurice Evans SG Anthony Parker
Hedo Turkoglu SF Jamario Moon
Rashard Lewis PF Andrea Bargnani
Dwight Howard C Rasho Nesterovic

UPDATE: See the newest post for the scoop (courtesy of Tim Povtak) that J.J. Redick may play "significant" minutes tonight, as Keith Bogans is doubtful with a strained stomach muscle.

The Raptors won't have Chris Bosh. We won't have Jameer Nelson Keith Bogans or Keyon Dooling. Oddly enough, I think that favors Toronto. As the Raptors proved in a December 2006 visit to Amway Arena, they don't need Bosh in the lineup to hand our hats to us. "Sure," you may say, "But we didn't have Hedo Turkoglu for that game, and we'll have him tonight." Well, we had him for the Raptors' second visit to Amway last season and he scored a career-high 37 points... in a losing effort.

What worries me the most about tonight's game is Carlos Arroyo and Jameer Nelson having to guard T.J. Ford and Jose Calderon. If Dwight Howard doesn't assert himself in the paint, it's going to be a long night. There are only a few players in this league who can prevent Ford and Calderon from getting into the paint. Carlos Arroyo is not one of those players. Neither is Jameer.

Brian Schmitz notes that this game could have huge playoff implications. We've split the season-series with Toronto so far, so if it wins tonight, it will own the head-to-head tiebreaker should we finish with the same record.

For some Raptors perspective, check out Dinosty, T. Jose Caldeford, and Hoops Addict. Tipoff's at 7. Go Magic.

2 comments | 0 recs

Orlando Magic 118, New York Knicks 92

Carlos Arroyo shoots
It just wouldn't be Latin Night at the Amway Arena if Carlos Arroyo weren't launching off-balance jumpers. Despite what this photo may indicate, Arroyo played under control, and the Magic walloped the Knicks, 118-92.
Photo by Fernando Medina, NBAE/Getty Images

Yes, it was as big a laugher as the boxscore indicates it was, and I'm not sure there's much more you need to know. The Knicks -- Jamal Crawford in particular -- came out en fuego, but cooled off late in the first half. Once Eddy Curry went to the bench with his third foul, we took over, as the Knicks had no one who could contain Dwight Howard. Zach Randolph, the Knicks' other big-man, missed the game with a sore foot, forcing coach Isiah Thomas to use 6'8" David lee and 6'6" Malik Rose on the Magic's star center. From that point, we went on a 23-7 run to close out the first half, and the Knicks never seriously contested for the rest of the game.

Because of injuries to Jameer Nelson and Keyon Dooling (John Denton has the scoop), center James Augustine and forward Marcin Gortat were available tonight. And, no the delight of many Magic fans, they got to play, as did Pat Garrity and J.J. Redick. Gortat made his NBA debut, scoring the first basket of his NBA career on a pretty reverse layup. You can watch the video of the play, graciously captured by NCYMagicFan, by clicking here. Tony Battie's celebratory dance on the Magic bench is priceless.

We're once again 15 games over .500 and, more importantly, we took care of business on our home floor. We also saw great performances by everyone, but there were a few exceptional ones that I should mention: Dwight Howard had 26 points and 20 rebounds for his seventh 20/20 game of the season; Hedo Turkoglu finished just two rebounds shy of a triple-double; and Carlos Arroyo dished 8 assists and only one turnover in his first start since February 6th.

One final note: the Dwight Howard/Rashard Lewis/Hedo Turkoglu trio has started in 60 of the Magic's 61 games this season. Tonight's game was just the second time each of those players scored more than 20 points in a single game. The first time, probably not coincidentally, also came against the Knicks.

Obviously, we can't let this huge win get to our heads. We have Toronto at home on Tuesday, and they're going to be tough to beat. UPDATE: Doug Smith of the Toronto Star reports that the Raptors will likely be without Chris Bosh for Tuesday's game. I'm nonplussed. Toronto's point guard tandem of Jose Calderon and T.J. Ford is good enough to beat us by itself.

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