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Matchup Analysis: Dwight Howard vs. Rasho Nesterovic
This attitude is what the Magic need more of. From Dwight's comments after the Magic beat the Wizards on Wednesday:
"Everybody knows what LeBron did, everybody remembers," Magic center Dwight Howard said. "I want to be remembered."
[....]
"We want Toronto to feel like they're in hell."
I want Dwight to be remembered, too, and not just for the Superman dunk. He can ascend from Superstardom to, uh, Superduperstardom (?) if he can dominate in the playoffs. As much as we worry about not having anyone who can guard Chris Bosh, it's easy to lose sight of the fact that somebody on the Raptors has to guard Howard. On whom will the Raptors call? How has Dwight done against that person historically?
Enter Rasho Nesterovic, the veteran center who's having a career renaissance in April, averaging 16 points, 6 rebounds, and 60% shooting from the field. But the focus of this piece is defense, so let's get to it. 82games shows us that he held opposing centers to a PER of 13.8 this season. That's all well and good, but how did he and Dwight do against one another in the regular season? Let's take a look:
| Game | Shared playing-time | Dwight's Stats | Rasho's Stats | Notes | GameFlow | Play-by-Play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0:18 | -- | -- | With just 18 seconds together, what'd you expect? | PopcornMachine | ESPN |
| 2 | 8:42 | 2-3 FGs, 3-4 FTs, 7 pts | 3-5 FGs, 6 pts |
|
PopcornMachine | ESPN |
| 3 | 17:36 | 2-4 FGs, 1-2 FTs, 5 pts | 0-5 FGs, 0 pts |
|
PopcornMachine | ESPN |
These resources can't tell us who guarded whom in these stretches, so take the results with a grain of salt. However, it's reasonable to assume that Dwight and Rasho were indeed matched-up with one another. That was most evident in the third game, when the Raptors were without Bosh. Dwight scored 19 points in 29 minutes, but the play-by-play shows he did most of that damage when Rasho was off the floor. Overall, Dwight's total of 12 points in 26:36 against Nesterovic puts him on pace for 16.2 points per 36 minutes, well below his season average of 19.8 points per 36, which suggests that the Raptors can indeed rely on Nesterovic to contain Howard.
But can they afford to play him heavy minutes? Does he negatively impact the offense? While the Raptors are nearly 6 points worse per 100 possessions when Nesterovic is on the court, they shouldn't fret; when on the floor with the Raptors' other starters (T.J. Ford, Anthony Parker, Jamario Moon, and Bosh), Toronto outscores its opponent 82% of the time.
But...
When Dwight's motivated, he's awesome. After Stan Van Gundy famously called him out for his lack of effort, Dwight responded with a 23-point, 24-rebound effort against the Denver Nuggets, who employ Marcus Camby, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, at center.
So, one table and several paragraphs later, we're no closer to figuring out how Dwight will do against Rasho. Considering that Chris Bosh will get his points (probably 35 a game), and that Jamario Moon's athleticism poses problems for Hedo Turkoglu, it's important that Dwight at least scores at his usual rate. He's had trouble with Nesterovic in the past, but the playoffs are a different animal.
And so is Dwight.
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Orlando Magic 109, Denver Nuggets 98: The Afternoon After

Dwight Howard hauls in a rebound as Marcus Camby looks on in the Orlando Magic's 109-98 victory over the Denver Nuggets on Monday night. Howard regained the league's lead in rebounds per game with his 24-rebound performance.
Photo by Fernando Medina, NBAE/Getty Images
Okay, I'm taking my All-Star break early. Enjoy these other takes on last night's 109-98 Magic win over the Nuggets, as well as a few other odds-and-ends. See you on the other side of Sunday.
- Basketbawful included Maurice Evans in his Worst of the Night feature:
Maurice Evans: If there's a wink link in the Magic's daisy chain, it's their backcourt. And that weakness was on display last night, as Evans scored 2 points on 1-for-8 shooting. You know, starting 2-guards are supposed to score. That's what they do. But Evans is averaging 7.6 PPG. And it's not like he's much of a playmaker, either (1.1. APG).
And yet I still think the Magic would be wise to re-sign "Mogans" to a short-term deal this summer. Despite last night's egg, he's played well as a starter overall, and his defense is still above-average.
- Basketbawful, writing this time at Deadspin, has the following to say about Dwight Howard's monster performance. Superbad references abound:
Okay, calm down. Calm down, she likes you. She wants to [perform fellatio]. That's a good thing. It's the best. I'm guessing a lot of people will want to [perform fellatio on Dwight Howard] after he sunk the Denver Nuggets' battleship with 23 points and 24 rebounds, and that includes his coach, Stan Van Gundy, who called Howard out for a lack of effort after the Magic lost to Cleveland on Monday. During the postgame press conference, Van Gundy said, "We've seen games like this out of him before. It's not like Stan Van Gundy's a motivational genius and got Dwight to play." Hm. Maybe, maybe not. But Matt McHale wonders why Van Gundy speaks in the third person. Matt McHale thinks that's weird, but then, what does Matt McHale know? (I'll tell you: He knows that the Magic won 109-98.)
- Brian Schmitz says in his game recap Dwight's teammates want him to wear a Superman cape in the dunk contest this weekend.
- Lost in the commotion over Dwight's stellar night are the great second-half performances of Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu. Sweet Lew had arguably his best game in Magic white-and-blue, scoring 14 of his 25 points in the decisive third-quarter; he also added 7 rebounds. Turk, meanwhile, recovered from foul trouble to score 12 points in the fourth to put the Nuggets away for good.
- Also don't forget to note Jameer Nelson's poor game: 6-of-15 shooting for 13 points. Yuck. Still, can I legitimately complain when we managed to beat one of the league's better teams despite our starting backcourt going 7-of-23 for 15 points?
- After last week's loss to the Lakers, I wrote that Pau Gasol got away with some flops. Hardwood Paroxysm has video evidence that Gasol is, indeed, a flopper.
- More from Schmitz, who wonders if Carlos Arroyo and J.J. Redick are on the trading block. I don't think Redick will have to be included in every possible trade scenario, but he almost certainly will have to go if the other team is willing to take on Pat Garrity.
- Kurt Thomas, a potential Magic trade target, figures to see his playing time decline in Seattle during the second half of the season, as the Sonics want to play the kids a little more. From the Seattle Times (via SuperSonicSoul):
Coach P.J. Carlesimo intends to use the second half of the season to evaluate players such as C Robert Swift, C Johan Petro, G Luke Ridnour, swingman Delonte West and Gelebale at the expense of others, including starters.
Might be time to make that phone call, Otis.
Enjoy your weekend, the All-Star festivities, and Valentine's Day. For those of you who are interested in the Nets potentially trading Jason Kidd to Dallas, check out Mavs Moneyball. Wes Cox was not too happy with the deal when it was announced.
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Orlando Magic 109, Denver Nuggets 98
The Magic won tonight, unexpectedly, thanks to some strong defense. Maybe I should bash the team more often.
Nah.
The full recap should be up in this space sometime tomorrow morning. Until then, have fun with the boxscore:
- Schmitz's 20/20 prediction for Dwight came true;
- Rashard Lewis lead the team in scoring;
- Briak Cook scored 18 points on 9 shot attempts;
- and the two-guard tandem of Maurice Evans and Keith Bogans combined to shoot 2-of-15 for 4 points while J.J. Redick recorded yet another DNP-CD.
Interesting stuff.
Also, according to the Washington Post's Ivan Carter, Wizards forward Caron Butler is doubtful for the All-Star game this Sunday. Hedo Turkoglu's best shot to make the team is right now. The Canadian Press reports Ray Allen, not Hedo Turkoglu, will replace Butler. Thanks to Bullets Forever for the assist on the Carter article.
Besides tomorrow's recap, I don't plan on making any posts until after the All-Star break... which means Otis Smith will go do something completely stupid and I'll end up spending the whole weekend writing about it. Do NOT pick up that phone, Otis! Unless it's an offer for one of these guys.
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Tonight's Game: Orlando Magic vs. Denver Nuggets
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| 32-21 | 32-19 | |
| Amway Arena | ||
| 7:00 PM | ||
| FSN Florida | ||
| Probable starters: | ||
| Jameer Nelson | PG | Anthony Carter |
| Maurice Evans | SG | Allen Iverson |
| Hedo Turkoglu | SF | Carmelo Anthony |
| Rashard Lewis | PF | Kenyon Martin |
| Dwight Howard | C | Marcus Camby |
The Nuggets are coming off a 114-113 overtime victory over the Miami Heat last night. J.R. Smith lead Denver with 28 points... in 27 minutes... on 8-of-14 three-point shooting. He has no conscience. And the Magic damn well better close out on him if they hope to win.
And ohbytheway, the Nuggets also have the league's highest-scoring duo: Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson. The theme for the Magic tonight has to be DEFENSE.
Of course, the biggest story in this game is the (overblown) "feud" between Dwight Howard and Stan Van Gundy. How will Dwight respond in his first game since his coach called him out for not playing good defense? Brian Schmitz guarantees Howard will go for 20 points and 20 rebounds, even though he'll be matched-up with Marcus Camby, the league's leading rebounder and shot-blocker. However, a big night for Dwight isn't out of the question: Mark Blount (!) managed to post 18 points and 13 boards against Camby last night, and he's Mark Blount.
Anyway, look for the Nuggets to cream us. Sure, they're on the second night of a back-to-back, but that certainly didn't bother the Cavaliers on Monday. Unless the Nuggets flat-out miss their shots, they have this one in the bag. Accuscore disagrees, as the Magic won 62% of the game simulations it ran. Don't count on it. We are not a good team right now.
For some really super-cool Nuggets p.o.v., check out Pickaxe & Roll. Jeremy, who runs the site, does a great job analyzing Nuggets games with video. Check out this video breakdown of the Nuggets' first game against the Magic, which resulted in a Denver win thanks to Anthony Carter's 14th fourth-quarter points.
Tipoff's at 7. Go Magic.
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