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Scheduled Event

Final - 4.13.2008 1 2 3 4 Total
Orlando Magic 36 17 29 22 104
Chicago Bulls 24 24 26 10 84

Looking at the Playoffs and Celebrating Fifty Wins

Dwight Howard and Rashard Lewis of the Orlando Magic share a laugh on the bench as the Magic defeat the Chicago Bulls, 104-84, for their 50th victory of the 2007/2008 season

 

Dwight Howard and Rashard Lewis have a laugh on the bench during the Magic's 50th victory of the season.

 

Photo by Brian Kersey, the Associated Press

For anyone curious about the playoff picture, here it is, courtesy Tom Ziller of Fanhouse. Most likely, we'll face the Toronto Raptors in the first round. That's an unfavorable matchup, to say the least. I'd much rather play the Philadelphia 76ers, as we match-up better with them than we do the Raptors. Dwight Howard always has trouble guarding Chris Bosh, and the thought of having to stop him in a seven-game series frightens me.

I played a playoff edition of 20 Questions with Hardwood Paroxysm. You can check it out here.

And now, some diversions. In honor of our first fifty-win season since 1995/96, I thought I'd have some fun with the number 50...

If you're curious to see what 3QC will look like this Friday, when it migrates to the new SBN 2.0 platform, check Golden State of Mind, which made the jump today. It's purdy.

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50 Wins! Magic 104, Chicago 84

Fifty is nifty. Here's Mike's recap. - BQR

For the first time since the 1995-'96 season, the Magic have achieved 50 victories in a season, thanks to a 104-84 victory over the Bulls.  The Magic led from start to finish and put the Bulls away in the fourth quarter while leading by as many as 24 points as they outscored Chicago 22-10 in the final period.  The Magic led 36-24 at the end of the first quarter as they shot 11 of 14 (78.6%), including 5 of 7 from 3 pt range.  Chicago cut the Magic lead to 53-48 at the half and trailed 82-74 after three quarters before the Magic put the game away in the final period.

Hedo Turkoglu was the overall star of the game for the Magic, as he scored 24 points with 8 assists, 4 rebounds, and 3 steals.  Dwight Howard was a big factor down low again, scoring 13 first quarter points and finished with 19 points in just three quarters.  Even though he attempted just four field goals, Howard was fouled repeatedly trying to shoot down low and made a very respectable 13 of 17 free throws.

Continue reading this post »

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Tonight's Game: Chicago Bulls vs. Orlando Magic

Chicago Bulls main logo
vs.
Orlando Magic main logo
31-48
49-30
United Center
7:00 PM
Sun Sports
Probable starters:
Kirk Hinrich PG Jameer Nelson
Larry Hughes SG Maurice Evans
Luol Deng SF Hedo Turkoglu
Tyrus Thomas PF Rashard Lewis
Joakim Noah C Dwight Howard
Season series:
31 Dec 2007: Magic 112, Bulls 110
15 Jan 2008: Magic 102, Bulls 88
9 Apr 2008: Magic 115, Bulls 83

Last Wednesday, just three days after losing to the Knicks in embarrassing fashion, the Magic took our their frustration on the Bulls. Today, they'll try to do it again, only this time the loss fueling the frustration was at the hands of the Timberwolves. Dwight Howard had 30 points and 14 rebounds. Let's hope for more of the same tonight.

Mike has the recap. Go Magic.

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Off-Day Open Thread: Projecting the Rest of the Orlando Magic's Season

The Dream Shake posted its predictions for how the rest of the Rockets' season would play out. I shamelessly ripped-off was inspired by that post, and now submit a Magic-oriented version of it, with a mathematic twist. The "Prediction" column shows how I think we'll do. The "Worst Case" column shows what we'll do if Murphy's Law rears its ugly head. The "Pythagorean Odds" column shows our chances of winning, based on point differential. I'll explain more after the table.

Date Opponent Prediction Worst Case Pyth. Odds
21 March vs. Philadelphia W 46-25 L 45-26 .721
22 March @ Atlanta W 47-25 W 46-26 .641
25 March vs. San Antonio W 48-25 L 46-27 .611
28 March @ Milwaukee L 48-26 L 46-28 .769
1 April vs. New Orleans L 48-27 L 46-29 .576
5 April @ Cleveland W 49-27 L 46-30 .572
6 April @ New York W 50-27 L 46-31 .770
9 April vs. Chicago W 51-27 W 47-31 .803
11 April vs. Minnesota W 52-27 W 48-31 .886
13 April @ Chicago W 53-27 L 48-32 .645
15 April @ Atlanta L 53-28 L 48-33 .641
16 April vs. Washington W 54-28 L 48-34 .750


9-3
3-9
12-0 (!) woot smiley

I'm not sure how much stock you put into this metric, but if its predictions hold true -- that is, if the team that's predicted to win actually does win -- the Magic will run the table the rest of the way and finish with a record of 57-25. Likely? No. Possible? Practically and mathematically speaking, absolutely.

There are some caveats here, obviously. For one thing, I did not calculate the splits for home and road teams; that is, I considered only a team's overall point differential, not its respective home and road differentials. For another, the Cavaliers actually have a sub-.500 Pythagorean win percentage, mostly because of the games LeBron James missed. As a result of that discrepancy, the formula exaggerates our chances of winning that game. Considering that it's already the most difficult one on the schedule, I was pretty hesitant to predict a victory. But I did.

In the interest of full disclosure, the last time I used this formula on this site, it predicted we would go 4-2 over a 6-game stretch. The predictions held true in 4 of the 6 games. Another time I used the formula in my notebook, and the predictions held true in again in 4 of the 6 games. So it's certainly not infallible.

As you can see from my predictions -- which are far less interesting than the Pythagorean ones -- I believe there are only three games we are guaranteed to win: Saturday against Atlanta, April 9th versus Chicago, and April 11th versus Minnesota. Every other game could go either way, even the road games at Milwaukee and at New York. In fact, I guarantee a loss at Milwaukee next Friday. We're going to come out soft and complacent after several days of rest, and one unheralded Buck, possibly Royal Ivey, will post a career-high. Write it down.

So, just to prompt some discussion: what are your predictions for the rest of the season? Do you think we'll sweep the remaining 12 games, as the formula suggests we might? What's the biggest "trap game" left on our schedule?

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