So, about the upcoming draft...

The Magic's chances of getting an impact player with the 22nd overall pick are pretty slim, to put it charitably. Ryan Schwan of Hornets247 exhaustively crunched numbers from every draft pick in the NBA from 1984 to 2005 and came up with a nifty table that outlines those picks' performance based on a letter-grade scale. Here, he describes players taken with picks 20-28:

20-28 continues the trend, with more players falling into the grades D and F(67%) though it is still possible to land a good player. The odds are that one of the players picked in this range will at least be a starter, and another one will land in a rotation. The rest? Not so good.

Indeed, 37% of all players drafted 20th-28th got a grade of "F", which Schwan defines as a player who "never developed and earned minor minutes." Additionally, the data show the Magic are equally as likely to draft a guy who will not play a single minute in the NBA than they are to draft a star (5% each).

For the record, the Magic have owned the 22nd overall pick once before in their history: 2001. They selected Jeryl Sasser, who lasted just 2 seasons in the NBA, both of them with the Magic. It's not hard to imagine why his career ended so early: his averages (2.5 points, 2.3 rebounds, 0.8 assists, 30.3% FGs) are simply horrendous. And to think this guy went 6 picks ahead of Tony Parker.

Oy. I'm getting to be as bad as Buzz Killington.

However, it's not all gloom-and-doom. There haven't been many great 22nd overall picks in recent memory (you have to go back to the 1987 draft to find Reggie Lewis, the last All-Star drafted 22nd) but some players taken 23-30 have worked out okay. Just ask the Celtics (Kendrick Perkins), Lakers (Jordan Farmar, Sasha Vujacic), Pistons (Jason Maxiell, Tayshaun Prince), and Spurs (Tony Parker), the four teams still standing this season, each of which gets key contributions from recent late-first round draft picks. Sure, the odds are decidedly against us getting anyone of that caliber, especially given the questionable draft history of Otis Smith and Dave Twardzik, but it's not impossible.

As for whom the Magic might select, I can't say for sure, but my three favorite NBA Draft sites can. Bookmark this 3QC Mock Draft Summary page for regular updates from DraftExpress, NBADraft.net, and Ridiculous Upside.

Not to pile on Otis Smith, but the Magic are the only Eastern Conference team currently over .500 not to make at least one roster move to improve itself in the past month. To recap:

1. Boston Celtics (44-12)
   • Sign forward P.J. Brown out of retirement
   • Sign free-agent guard Sam Cassell (bought-out by the Los Angeles Clippers, a decision with which ClipperSteve does not agree)
2. Detroit Pistons (42-16)
   • Acquire guard Juan Dixon from the Toronto Raptors for center Primoz Brezec
   • Sign free-agent center Theo Ratliff (bought-out by the Minnesota Timberwolves)
3. Orlando Magic (37-23)
4. Toronto Raptors (32-24)
   • Acquire center Primoz Brezec from the Detroit Pistons for guard Juan Dixon
5. Cleveland Cavaliers (32-26)
   • Acquire forwards Joe Smith and Ben Wallace from the Chicago Bulls for foward Drew Gooden and guard Larry Hughes
   • Acquire forward Wally Szczerbiak and guard Delonte West from the Seattle SuperSonics for forwards Donyell Marshall and Ira Newble

Okay, maybe the Raptors getting Brezec from the Pistons doesn't count, but the fact remains: the teams around us are at least trying to improve, and we aren't. The Magic, as constituted the day of the trade deadline, were certainly not talented enough to defeat Boston, Detroit, or Toronto in a seven-game series. Now? They're arguably not talented enough to take down Cleveland, either. Even more troublesome is the fact that Toronto and Cleveland are potential first-round playoff opponents for us, which makes the possibility of an early vacation for us much more immediate.

As MME wrote at Bold 'n' Blue, the Magic are the only team in the NBA this season to beat Boston and Detroit twice each. However, one win against each of those teams came on a game-winning shot, and another came down to a missed last-second shot by the opponent. Only one, the most recent victory over the Pistons, was decisive by any stretch of the imagination.

On the day of the trade deadline, I considered Detroit the most formidable of any of these plus-.500 teams. Now that Boston has added two talented, savvy, playoff-proven veterans, I'm even more frightened of them. In last season's playoffs, Detroit's Chris Webber and Dale Davis (who no longer play for the Pistons) hacked Dwight Howard into a funk he could not shake. They intimidated him. The Celtics now have P.J. Brown, who can similarly pester Dwight. Celtics coach Doc Rivers can also dust-off Scot Pollard, who is good for six fouls a game. Meanwhile, Sam Cassell has 115 games of playoff experience, and still has the skills to pick-apart younger point guards; see this season's 35-point undressing of the Pacers' Jamaal Tinsley for proof.

Theo Ratliff is finally healthy, and he gives the Pistons the same toughness that Davis and Webber provided them last year. He's still a good shot-blocker, and can be trusted in late-game situations; in the fourth quarter of Game 7 in a playoff series, with Rasheed Wallace fouled out, Pistons coach Flip Saunders will go with Ratliff over emerging youngster Amir Johnson 11 times out of 10.

Cleveland is similarly tougher with Ben Wallace and Joe Smith. Even with Wallace's declining skills, he's still more of a banger than Drew Gooden ever was or ever will be. Adding those two guys to a frontcourt that already boasted Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Anderson Varejao makes the Cavaliers a team built for hard-nosed playoff basketball. Also, they have LeBron James.

As for Toronto, they're already a better team. As ESPN.com's John Hollinger mentioned yesterday (Insider, although it's free for right now), Toronto has a better point differential than we do, and point differential is a better indicator of a team's ability that won-loss record is:

Let's put it more simply: The Raps aren't beating people, they're killing them. Toronto topped Milwaukee by 31, Washington by 39, Miami by 32, Minnesota by 23 and 22, New Jersey by 18, Orlando by 17, and New York by 23. In a 16-game stretch, half their games were blowout wins.

Sum it up and you'll see in that modest-looking 16-game stretch [during which Toronto is 10-6] the Raptors are outscoring opponents by an impressive 10 points per game.

Chris Bosh and Dwight Howard play well against each other, so the real difference-making factor for the Raptors in a series against us is the point guard tandem of Jose Calderon and T.J. Ford. There's no way that either Jameer Nelson or Keyon Dooling can shut both of those guys down; they get into the lane at will and have the three-point shooters to make defenses pay for collapsing on them. The Raptors, as a team, shoot 40% from beyond the arc, is tops in the NBA.

So should we just give up and concede the conference to these teams? No, of course not. We can beat any of these teams in a playoff series, but the odds are decidedly not in our favor. After reading this post by Matt at Hardwood Paroxysm, I decided to contact him to chat about D-League players who could help Orlando. Click "Permalink" below to read what he had to say.

Continue reading this post »

	vs.
32-19		31-17
Amway Arena
7:00 PM
FSN Florida
Probable starters:
Jameer Nelson	PG	Derek Fisher
Maurice Evans	SG	Kobe Bryant
Hedo Turkoglu	SF	V. Radmanovic
Rashard Lewis	PF	Lamar Odom
Dwight Howard	C	Pau Gasol

Our game-day feature is a bit of Lakers Q-and-A with Kurt of the web's premier Laker-fan resource, Forum Blue & Gold. You may remember him from the insight he gave us when the Lakers and the Magic engaged in a three-player trade last November. Kurt took the time to answer some of our questions, just as I answered some of his.

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3QC: It's been nearly three months since the Magic traded Trevor Ariza to the Lakers for Brian Cook and Maurice Evans. How has that deal worked for the Lakers? Does Ariza, who can opt-out of his contract this summer, fit in to their future plans?

Kurt: The deal has been viewed as a great move for the Lakers. Until he got his foot stomped on by Derek Fisher in practice (Ariza is out a few more weeks with a broken bone in his foot), he had become a key player at the small forward, splitting time with Luke Walton. He is far more athletic than Luke and a much better defender, so depending on the matchup he or Luke got the start and the majority of minutes that night (Ariza started three games and was playing about 18 minutes a game, up from 10 in Orlando). It was his defense that was winning him fans, it gave the Lakers a second very good perimeter defender to take some pressure off Kobe at that end. And the move even helped Ariza's offense - the first half of the year in Orlando he shot 45.2% and had a PER of 12.9, in LA that jumped to 52.4% and a PER of 17.3. Plus, he had a monster dunk on Christmas Day over Grant Hill.

It's going to be interesting with the Gasol trade - Odom will start at the three and the Lakers are now pretty crowded at forward (Radmanovic can play there as well in a tall lineup). Still, Ariza's defense will get him minutes. I'd be surprised if Ariza opts out at the end of the year. I think the Lakers would like to keep him around as part of a young core that can compete for a title for the next few years, so long as it can be done at a reasonable price.

3QC: Los Angeles made a much bigger trade last week by acquiring All-Star forward Pau Gasol, which sparked plenty of championship talk among Lakers fans and NBA commentators alike. Given the formidable playoff lineup of Derek Fisher, Kobe Bryant, Lamar Odom, Gasol, and Andrew Bynum, is there any team in the league which the Lakers would stand no chance of defeating in a seven-game series?

Kurt: One of the best parts of the Gasol trade (other than just getting rid of Kwame) and the way the Lakers roster is built is the flexibility it gives Phil Jackson. Want to go small, put in a lineup of Fisher, Jordan Farmar, Kobe, Ariza and Lamar Odom. Want to go very big, put in Kobe, Ariza, Odom (or Vladamir Radmanovic), Gasol and Bynum. Need just a few stops, put in a defensive-focused lineup of Fisher, Kobe, Ariza, Ronny Turiaf and Bynum. And those lists go on. In the crazy-deep Western Conference matchups in the playoffs are going to be key, you're going to see a different kind of team each round and you need to be able to counteract that style (just ask the Mavericks). The Lakers are in a better position now than any other team in the West to do that. But we'll see how that translates into wins when it matters.

3QC: Bynum, the Lakers' young (franchise?) center, has improved dramatically this season. What's been the key to his success?

Kurt: No need to put that question mark after franchise. He is part of the core of this team for the next decade and beyond, even after Kobe hangs it up.

The biggest change this season has been Bynum's conditioning. His first two years in the league he spent a lot of time with Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (which you probably noticed because every time Bynum scored in a national broadcast the television cameras cut to Kareem). Kareem taught Bynum a lot about how to play the low post, proper footwork, using his body and length to get rebounds, etc. Last season, forced into extended minutes because of injuries, Bynum was learning how to apply those lessons in games, but his body kept betraying him. He got tired quickly, wasn't strong enough to do what he wanted at times. This past summer he spent a lot of time putting on muscle and getting in NBA condition (he's no Howard but he's not bad). The results have been phenomenal - and as he does something well his confidence grows, and then he feels comfortable trying different things he'd been working on. That's a great upward spiral for a young player.

3QC: Which Laker, besides Bynum, has been the most pleasantly surprising this season?

Kurt: Jordan Farmar has been the other key. Clearly the guy had leadership skills - he took UCLA to the NCAA title game, and in that game was the only Bruin to play worth a damn, scoring 18. He fits with the Lakers style in that he's got a great basketball IQ. And, he's a gym rat. The quintessential story about Farmar is this: On draft night last year the Lakers took the now-traded Javaris Crittenton in the first round, another young point guard. As the Lakers front office staff at the LA team headquarters were leaving the building that night, Jordan Farmar came in and started working on his shot. Nobody was going to take his spot. This season his shooting has improved - overall from 42.2% last season to 47.5% this year, and from three he's now shooting 38.9%, up from 32% last year. He's splitting time and learning from Derek Fisher, something that has the added benefit of keeping the not-so-young legs of Fisher fresh for the playoffs.

3QC: Which Magic player poses the toughest matchup for the Lakers? Conversely, which Laker poses the toughest matchup for the Magic?

Kurt: Um, have you seen Dwight Howard play? Does anyone have someone to matchup with him? He is going to be a big challenge with Bynum out, Pau Gasol is tall but not a great post defender. You may see a bunch of DJ Mbenga (a 10-day contract guy). The other guys who could have a big night are Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu. One of the problems for the Lakers defense this year, particularly since Bynum and his presence in the paint went down, is that defenders are quick to sag off guys at the three-point line to defend the paint. Since the Magic have so many guys who can shoot the three, that can be a problem for the Lakers.

On the flip side, nobody really has a matchup for Kobe. The only thing slowing him down right now is he dislocated the little finger on his shooting hand against the Nets and that impacted his shooting against the Hawks Wednesday night. We'll see what happens tonight, but he is a force unlike any other. I'm curious how the Magic will defend the high pick and roll with Kobe as the ball handler and Gasol setting the pick (he has the skills to roll to the basket if you trap Kobe, or if you sit back on him he can slide out and hit the 18 footer). Also, depending on which Lamar Odom shows up, he can be almost unstoppable. He is the one that stops himself most nights.

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We'd like to thank Kurt once again for his thoughtful responses to our questions. Once again, be sure to check out the game preview at Forum Blue & Gold to see how I responded to Kurt's questions.

The Magic's Keyon Dooling drives to the hoop past the Lakers' Jordan Farmar in Orlando's 104-97 win over Los Angeles.
Photo by Noah Graham, NBAE/Getty Images

Wow. Not bad news to hear after coming back from a meeting.

While I was out, the Magic stormed into Los Angeles and beat the Lakers at the Staples Center for the first time in that building's history. Here's the boxscore for tonight's game. And here's a photo of Lindsay Lohan sitting courtside. Maybe we should have her attend Lakers games more often.

The Magic's futility against the Lakers on their home floor dated back to 1996, when the 60-win Magic team featuring Horace Grant, Penny Hardaway, and Shaquille O'Neal eked past the Lakers by a score of 98-97.

Just a few boxscore-related observations before I head to bed:

• My friend Lane informs me that Keyon Dooling threw down a pretty nasty dunk on Kobe Bryant. If anyone has photo or video of this play, please post it. I want to see it.
• Kobe needed 26 shots to score 28 points, 19 of which came in the first quarter. Credit Keith Bogans, who I assume guarded Kobe, for shutting him down after that eruption.
• We got solid performances from everyone tonight. Scoring 104 points is great, but I especially like that no one had more than 18. Maybe it's just me, but I think balance wins basketball games.
• Maurice Evans had a Trevor Ariza-esque 9 points and 7 rebounds in his return to Los Angeles. Ariza, whom we sent to the Lakers to acquire Evans and Brian Cook, did not play.
• Speaking of Cook, he had 3 points in a team-low 9 minutes. He won't see more playing time until he gets into better shape.
• Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu lead us with 7 assists apiece. Actually, it appears that everyone moved the ball well; we posted 25 assists on 38 field goals.
• J.J. Redick was relevant for the third straight game, popping off for 8 points in 11 minutes. Very nice to see the youngster contributing when he's given the opportunity.

For more on the game, check out the game thread at MagicMadness; Forum Blue and Gold's game thread; John Denton's halftime notes; and Brian Schmitz's recap for the Orlando Sentinel.