Note: I wrote this post before last night's Game Two between the Magic and the Pistons.

Last week, Ellen of the Cavaliers blog And One posted this thoughtful rundown of mental toughness in sports using a 2007 article from The Sports Psychologist as a backdrop. As the Magic face the Detroit Pistons, a team famous for playing mind games with its opponents, in these playoffs, it seems pertinent to discuss the Pistons' mental advantage: other than skill, what sets them apart from the Magic?

The Sports Psychologist article which Ellen referenced breaks-up mental toughness into this framework. Refer to the scans at And One for the full explanation of each sub-category:

1. Attitude/Mindset
   • Belief
   • Focus
2. Training
   • Using long-term goals as the source of motivation
   • Controlling the environment
   • Pushing yourself to the limit
3. Competition
   • Handling pressure
   • Belief
   • Regulating performance
   • Staying focused
   • Awareness and control of thoughts and feelings
   • Controlling the environment
4. Postcompetition
   • Handling failure
   • Handling success

The branch in which I have the most interest is "Attitude/mindset." How do the inexperienced Magic, in just the second year of the Dwight Howard Playoff Era, compare with the veteran Pistons, which have made the Eastern Conference Finals in each of the last five seasons with the same core of players? One of the tenets of "Attitude/mindset," as the article explains, is "Having and unshakable self-belief as a result of total awareness of how you got to where you are now." Consider that, then examine this quote from Pistons guard Chauncey Billups, courtesy John Denton:

"That's what we do. We play physical and we feed off other teams when they try to be physical on us," he said. "It's like somebody coming to you house and doing exactly what you wanted. They feed right into what you wanted them to do. (The Magic) play hard, but they don't play as physical as us, but they shoot that three-pointer. If they can do that, they have a chance. But if they want to rough it up, it's going to be tough."

Of course, the Magic know what they have to do. Here's Keyon Dooling, from the same Denton article:

"More so than getting caught up in their physical game, we've got to take care of us," Dooling said. "We've got to make our shots and do what we've been doing all year."

Another tenet is "Having an inner arrogance that makes you believe that you can achieve anything you set your mind to." If there's any single word that describes the Pistons' demeanor, it's "arrogant." Heck, it sure didn't take long for Pistons center Theo Ratliff, who's been with the Pistons for fewer than three months, to adopt Detroit's trademark swag:

"Look at the [veteran big] guys we have. We've already played against the greatest who ever played -- Hakeem [Olajuwan], [Patrick] Ewing, David Robinson -- there is nobody we haven't seen or guarded," said Pistons backup center Theo Ratliff. "Sure, Dwight is an imposing player, but it's not something we're really worried about."

The Pistons aren't worried about containing Howard, the Magic's All-Star center and overall best player? Well, why should they be? His attitude in this series leaves much to be desired. Let's set the scene with two quotes, the first from Pistons forward Jason Maxiell, one of the four different Pistons who defended Dwight in Game One, telling reporters explaining how he and his teammates held our Superman in-check:

"You pretty much just have to get underneath him [Howard] and you're OK," Maxiell said. "He has really strong, broad shoulders, but you get down low and take his legs out from under him. He's not very powerful down low because his legs aren't very strong. There are ways to play him."

When informed of these comments, Magic coach Stan Van Gundy agreed with Maxiell's assessment, saying that Dwight needs a "stronger base." But Dwight himself disagreed, saying flatly, "That's not true. Trust me." So Dwight says he believes in himself, but does that sound bite actually convince you of anything? If anything, it sounds like Dwight's trying to convince himself.

But it gets worse. After the game, Howard said, "I don't think I even looked up at the scoreboard for a while. It's disappointing." Those are disconcertingly weak words for a guy who dominated the first round of the playoffs by having three games of 20-plus points and 20-plus rebounds in the series. Where are those performances? Where is the intensity he showed in the first round when he earned a technical foul after getting in Carlos Delfino's face after Delfino tried to hack him on a dunk attempt? Maybe Rasheed Wallace was right when he likened Dwight to his "intern." Dwight can't be afraid to man-up against Wallace or any of his teammates.

It should go without saying that Dwight Howard is the Magic's key to success, now and in the future. He must get himself back on track after a disastrous Game One in which he scored 12 points and grabbed 8 rebounds -- well below his averages. The Magic have no chance to win this series with Dwight struggling so mightily, especially when Tayshaun Prince shuts-down Hedo Turkoglu, the Magic's other big scoring threat. "Superman" must punish Maxiell, Wallace, Ratliff, and Antonio McDyess -- the foursome which RaptorsForum dubbed Detroit's "Legion of Doom" -- by attacking the basket as soon as he receives the ball and by being more active on the offensive boards. The Pistons are a great team, to be sure, but they aren't invincible. Dwight can be, when he wants to.

Advantage, Magic.

Jameer Nelson, Dwight Howard, and Rashard Lewis watch their Orlando Magic lose to the Detroit Pistons, 91-72, in Game One of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series.

Photo by Paul Sancya, the Associated Press

I don't think Hedo should have dunked that one.

Hedo Turkoglu gave the Magic their first and only lead of the game last night with a driving dunk early in the third quarter. It was all downhill from there, as the Pistons went on a backbreaking 19-3 run to put the game on ice. It's a shame, too because we sure played well in the first half.

Give a lot of credit to the Pistons. They took away our three-point and our driving lanes to the basket. Our offense is predicated on the drive-and-kick to open three-point shooters. When there's no drive, there's no kick, and there's no shot. The Pistons held us to just 15 three-point attempts, 10 below our season average. Even worse, we made just 2 of them. We had made at least 5 in every game this past season, an NBA record. We had to look to score in other ways, and couldn't get it done. It's a shame, too. We played great defense, holding Detroit to 91 points on 85 possessions, but it didn't matter because we simply couldn't put the ball in the basket. From anywhere: 47% from two-point range, 13% from three-point range, and 50% from the foul line.

Perhaps the only positive thing to come out of this game was Rashard Lewis' hard foul on Theo Ratliff. Here's the video, courtesy Need4Sheed. It was nice to see Lewis take a nice hack at Ratliff, even if it was out of frustration, because we need to try to dispel this notion tat we're soft. After the game, Ratliff did his best to downplay Lewis' toughness. Lewis countered by saying, "Tell (Ratliff) he can come out to the three-point line to guard me."

Game Two promises to be very telling: does this young Magic team have what it takes to rebound from an ugly loss and win a huge road game? Or will Detroit take care of business once more, forcing us to win four of the next five games to advance? I certainly hope it's the former, but given our history with the Pistons, I wouldn't bet on it.

Be sure to check out the recaps at Need4Sheed and at PistonsNationBlog. The GameThread for Monday night's game should be up at 5:30 AM, as usual. See you then.

Not to pile on Otis Smith, but the Magic are the only Eastern Conference team currently over .500 not to make at least one roster move to improve itself in the past month. To recap:

1. Boston Celtics (44-12)
   • Sign forward P.J. Brown out of retirement
   • Sign free-agent guard Sam Cassell (bought-out by the Los Angeles Clippers, a decision with which ClipperSteve does not agree)
2. Detroit Pistons (42-16)
   • Acquire guard Juan Dixon from the Toronto Raptors for center Primoz Brezec
   • Sign free-agent center Theo Ratliff (bought-out by the Minnesota Timberwolves)
3. Orlando Magic (37-23)
4. Toronto Raptors (32-24)
   • Acquire center Primoz Brezec from the Detroit Pistons for guard Juan Dixon
5. Cleveland Cavaliers (32-26)
   • Acquire forwards Joe Smith and Ben Wallace from the Chicago Bulls for foward Drew Gooden and guard Larry Hughes
   • Acquire forward Wally Szczerbiak and guard Delonte West from the Seattle SuperSonics for forwards Donyell Marshall and Ira Newble

Okay, maybe the Raptors getting Brezec from the Pistons doesn't count, but the fact remains: the teams around us are at least trying to improve, and we aren't. The Magic, as constituted the day of the trade deadline, were certainly not talented enough to defeat Boston, Detroit, or Toronto in a seven-game series. Now? They're arguably not talented enough to take down Cleveland, either. Even more troublesome is the fact that Toronto and Cleveland are potential first-round playoff opponents for us, which makes the possibility of an early vacation for us much more immediate.

As MME wrote at Bold 'n' Blue, the Magic are the only team in the NBA this season to beat Boston and Detroit twice each. However, one win against each of those teams came on a game-winning shot, and another came down to a missed last-second shot by the opponent. Only one, the most recent victory over the Pistons, was decisive by any stretch of the imagination.

On the day of the trade deadline, I considered Detroit the most formidable of any of these plus-.500 teams. Now that Boston has added two talented, savvy, playoff-proven veterans, I'm even more frightened of them. In last season's playoffs, Detroit's Chris Webber and Dale Davis (who no longer play for the Pistons) hacked Dwight Howard into a funk he could not shake. They intimidated him. The Celtics now have P.J. Brown, who can similarly pester Dwight. Celtics coach Doc Rivers can also dust-off Scot Pollard, who is good for six fouls a game. Meanwhile, Sam Cassell has 115 games of playoff experience, and still has the skills to pick-apart younger point guards; see this season's 35-point undressing of the Pacers' Jamaal Tinsley for proof.

Theo Ratliff is finally healthy, and he gives the Pistons the same toughness that Davis and Webber provided them last year. He's still a good shot-blocker, and can be trusted in late-game situations; in the fourth quarter of Game 7 in a playoff series, with Rasheed Wallace fouled out, Pistons coach Flip Saunders will go with Ratliff over emerging youngster Amir Johnson 11 times out of 10.

Cleveland is similarly tougher with Ben Wallace and Joe Smith. Even with Wallace's declining skills, he's still more of a banger than Drew Gooden ever was or ever will be. Adding those two guys to a frontcourt that already boasted Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Anderson Varejao makes the Cavaliers a team built for hard-nosed playoff basketball. Also, they have LeBron James.

As for Toronto, they're already a better team. As ESPN.com's John Hollinger mentioned yesterday (Insider, although it's free for right now), Toronto has a better point differential than we do, and point differential is a better indicator of a team's ability that won-loss record is:

Let's put it more simply: The Raps aren't beating people, they're killing them. Toronto topped Milwaukee by 31, Washington by 39, Miami by 32, Minnesota by 23 and 22, New Jersey by 18, Orlando by 17, and New York by 23. In a 16-game stretch, half their games were blowout wins.

Sum it up and you'll see in that modest-looking 16-game stretch [during which Toronto is 10-6] the Raptors are outscoring opponents by an impressive 10 points per game.

Chris Bosh and Dwight Howard play well against each other, so the real difference-making factor for the Raptors in a series against us is the point guard tandem of Jose Calderon and T.J. Ford. There's no way that either Jameer Nelson or Keyon Dooling can shut both of those guys down; they get into the lane at will and have the three-point shooters to make defenses pay for collapsing on them. The Raptors, as a team, shoot 40% from beyond the arc, is tops in the NBA.

So should we just give up and concede the conference to these teams? No, of course not. We can beat any of these teams in a playoff series, but the odds are decidedly not in our favor. After reading this post by Matt at Hardwood Paroxysm, I decided to contact him to chat about D-League players who could help Orlando. Click "Permalink" below to read what he had to say.

Continue reading this post »

	vs.
0-2		2-1
Target Center
8:00 PM
Probable starters:
Sebastian Telfair	PG	Jameer Nelson
Rashad McCants	SG	Keith Bogans
Ryan Gomes	SF	Hedo Turkoglu
Al Jefferson	PF	Rashard Lewis
Theo Ratliff	C	Dwight Howard

25 words or fewer:The Magic travel to Minnesota to face a Timberwolves team that has yet to win a game this season.

Know your enemy: The 'Wolves remained competitive with the Knicks on Sunday, but wound up losing 97-93. Newly-acquired Antoine Walker missed what would have been the game-tying three-pointer for Minnesota. Zach Randolph hit a free throw to secure the final margin.

Useless information: Only five players from last year's Wolves team -- Randy Foye, Marko Jaric, Rashad McCants, Mark Madsen, and Craig Smith -- remain on this year's squad.

Bullet points:

• Tonight's game is on Sun Sports, so Bright House customers in Orlando should be able to see it.
• Here's an old Bill Simmons column in which the Sports Guy argues that Al Jefferson is better than Dwight Howard. Question: had Jefferson played for Minnesota last season, instead of for Simmons' native Boston, would Simmons have taken up this fight?
• Rumor has it that Michael Doleac, whom the Timberwolves recently acquired from Miami in the Ricky Davis trade, may end up playing for the Magic this season.
• I'd like to forget this overtime loss to the Timberwolves from last season, but I just cant. Trailing by one point in the last few seconds of overtime, Jameer Nelson drives into the lane, floats up a shot... and has it swatted by Kevin Garnett. Hey, I like Jameer, but shouldn't he have known that Ticket was gonna be there to reject that shot? Ugly.
• In two games against Minnesota last season, Rashard Lewis averaged 28.5 points on 37.5% shooting. He's been a dead-eye shooter so far this season -- 56% shooting from a wing player?! -- so let's hope he doesn't revert back to his less-than-accurate ways.
• I really dig this Timberwolves blog. How the heck did they get the 'Wolves' jersey font onto their computer? As the late Mitch Hedberg might have said, "That's f---in' magical." No pun intended

Pre-game, in-game, and post-game comments go here. As usual, I'll have a wrap-up posted shortly after the conclusion of the game.

Hedo Turkoglu attacks the basket and the defense of Washington's Brendan Haywood.
Photo by Haraz N. Ghanbari the Associated Press

Please disregard what I wrote about Hedo Turkoglu earlier today. After tonight's virtuoso performance against Washington, there is no doubt as to who the starting small forward for this team should be. He was the entire reason we managed to beat Washington tonight. Here's the boxscore.

Tonight, Hedo ran the offense, which explains his 8 assists to Jameer Nelson's 2. Many of Turk's assists came off of penetration, kicking it out to open shooters or dumping it off to Dwight Howard for a dunk. And as you'll see from the shot chart below, when Turk wasn't passing off of penetration, he was scoring off of it. Just look at all the shot attempts in the paint.

Hedo was taking the ball to the rack early and often against Washington. X's denote misses, O's denote makes.

I can't get overly excited about this victory, though. Yes, it came over a division rival, but there were a few bad spots. Dwight Howard had good numbers (17 points, 15 rebounds, 3 blocked shots) but he was actually outplayed by Washington's Brendan Haywood, who matched his career-high with 16 rebounds, 8 of them coming on the offensive glass. Haywood also swatted 5 shots, including an early Howard hook. If you were completely new to NBA basketball and were told that one of the starting centers tonight was an All-Star headed for superstardom, you would have guessed it was Haywood. He played out of his mind, and I applaud his effort.

For the second straight game, Rashard Lewis was a non-factor in the second half. How much of a non-factor was he? He scored no points in the second half -- he only attempted 4 shots -- and grabbed one rebound. Some of that can be attributed to Hedo having the hot hand, but much of it has to do with a lack of aggressiveness. He needs to work on that mentality for us to continue to be successful.

To be honest, Turk was really the only Magic player who impressed me. Dwight Howard has lost some of his confidence, and he's clearly frustrated by the lack of calls he's getting when hammered down low. He complained after nearly every call tonight, which is uncharacteristic of him. He, too, needs to get out of that funk.

It may look like Jameer Nelson had a bad game (17 points on just 4-of-14 shooting), but he back-to-back three-pointers in the fourth quarter to turn a 71-70 deficit into a 76-71 lead with 7 minutes to play. For that alone, I'm willing to forgive his crappy two-point shooting. How is it that he managed to hit only one of his eight two-point attempts? I don't understand.

I also think we lucked into playing a Washington team that just didn't have it offensively. Gilbert Arenas and Antawn Jamison, two-thirds of Washington's "Big Three," combined to shoot 11-of-36 for 30 points. I thought that Arenas, coming off last night's embarrassing loss to Boston, would come out attacking the basket, and I suppose he did. He hit his first three shots, but then disappeared for the rest of the game. Arenas, who was second in the NBA in total free-throw attempts last season, did not manage to get to the foul line once tonight. That's a rare occurrence.

Summarily, we didn't look impressive at all, but we got the win, and that's all that matters in the end.

Other notes:

• Now that the Wizards are 0-3, Pradamaster, the webmaster for Bullets Forever, is thinking about changing his site's name to Fourth Quarter Collapse.
• We did a great job handling the ball, turning the ball over just 13 times tonight. Through three games, we've committed just 35 turnovers, which shows that a team can play at a fast pace and still control the ball.
• Pat Garrity was once again the first forward off the bench. He came into the game with 3:46 to go in the first period and Orlando leading 17-8; he left the game with 8:15 to go in the second quarter and Orlando trailing 24-29. Yes, the Magic were outscored by 14 points in the 7 minutes that Pat Garrity was on the floor. I doubt he'll get many minutes Tuesday night against the Timberwolves...
• ... especially since Carlos Arroyo didn't play tonight. After a horrid performance against Detroit, 'los sat at the end of the bench with J.J. Redick and James Augustine. He's going to have to work himself back into Stan's rotation.
• Keith Bogans came down to earth. He entered the game with 14 points on 6-of-6 shooting total; he exits with 22 points total on 9-of-17 shooting. I guess I was wrong when I defended him over at Detroit Bad Boys earlier today.
• We were outscored 25-14 in the third quarter despite Washington's 6 turnovers.
• Your eyes do not deceive you: Trevor Ariza did indeed attempt a three-pointer. It didn't go in, but his first shot, a seventeen-footer from the left wing, did.

UPDATE: The AP recap of the game notes that Stan Van Gundy hasn't decided on a starting rotation:

"We have a problem finding a lineup that we can trot out at the start every single night," he said before Saturday's game. "I've got to get that cleaned up."

If Stan makes a change, it'll be because the bench has been so atrocious; that is, it won't be a move made out of displeasure with the starting five. Maybe Turk is bench-bound after all...? A puzzling development, to be sure.

UPDATE #2: Brian Schmitz has more information on Van Gundy's rotation:

The top eight [players] are forwards Lewis and Turkoglu; guards Jameer Nelson, Carlos Arroyo, Keith Bogans and Keyon Dooling; and centers Howard and Foyle.

That leaves SG J.J. Redick, PF Pat Garrity, SF Trevor Ariza and F James Augustine battling for playing time in Van Gundy's last spot.

He also mentions that Adonal Foyle may start Tuesday in Minnesota because the Timberwolves have strong post presences at the power positions: Theo Ratliff at center and Al Jefferson at power forward. My guess? Adonal starts at center and handles Jefferson, while Howard shifts to power forward and defends Ratliff. Rashard Lewis moves to his natural small-forward position, and Hedo Turkoglu moves to the two-guard. That would relegate Keith Bogans to the bench and give the Magic four starters 6'10" or taller; it would also leave the Magic with a lack of size on the bench. We'll see what happens.

Orlando Magic

Last year's record: 40-42

Key losses: forward Tony Battie (season-ending shoulder surgery), guard Travis Diener (free agency to Indiana), coach Brian Hill (fired), guard Grant Hill (free agency to Phoenix), forward Darko Milicic (free agency to Memphis).

Key additions: center Adonal Foyle (free agency from Golden State), forward Marcin Gortat (2005 draft), forward Rashard Lewis (sign-and-trade with Seattle), coach Stan Van Gundy (hired).

What significant moves were made during the offeason?

With the exception of the Boston Celtics, no NBA team made more changes this summer than the Orlando Magic. The signing of Rashard Lewis, a three-point specialist and 20-points-per-game scorer, to a maximum contract generated a lot of buzz around the league and in Orlando. Not since the days of Tracy McGrady have the Magic had such a brilliant offensive force.

However, the most significant change the Magic made was in coaching. The team parted ways with Brian Hill because it disagreed with his slow-it-down, grind-it-out philosophy, which did not suit the Magic's players. Enter Stan Van Gundy, a coach who likes his players to run the floor, to score in transition, and to play tough defense. He should be able to better use the Magic's athletic roster while encouraging them to create on the fly. Look for Van Gundy's philosophy to make a star out of point guard Jameer Nelson, who looked lost trying to run Brian Hill's offense last season.

What are the team's biggest strengths?

• Three-point shooting - The Magic ranked 15th in three-pointers made last season, but 29th in attempts, which indicates that Brian Hill didn't make the best use of the shooting talent he had. Anyway, Rashard Lewis, Hedo Turkoglu, J.J. Redick, Keith Bogans, Pat Garrity, and Jameer Nelson could all conceivably shoot at least 38% from downtown. And considering the sheer volume of threes the team will take in Stan Van Gundy's offense (18 per game so far this preseason, compared to approximately 12 per game last season), that will translate into a lot of scoring. The problem is that teams who live with the jump-shot also die with the jump-shot. Luckily, the Magic have the option of giving the ball to Dwight Howard down low.
• Defensive rebounding - Although the Magic seemingly have holes at the power positions, especially with Tony Battie being out for the season, they have done a capable job of cleaning their opponents' glass this preseason. The Magic have rebounded 80% of their opponents' missed shot this season, much better than the 73% average. Of course, the Magic haven't faced teams with any dominant big-men yet this preseason, so that may be skewed. But if Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis are able to step up, and if Adonal Foyle plays well off the bench, the Magic will have plenty of possessions off their opponents' missed shots, which means plenty of chances to run the fast-break.

What are the team's biggest weaknesses?

• Leadership - Orlando has never been known for having gutsy players, or guys who can lead by example. This year's team features Adonal Foyle, who is as nice a player as there is in the league, but he doesn't have the star wattage that most leaders have. Ditto for Bo Outlaw, who may not even make the team. Until Jameer Nelson, Dwight Howard, or Rashard Lewis step up and show this team some backbone, the Magic may find themselves on the losing ends of some close games.
• Depth - The Magic are in desperate need of another rebounding big-man as insurance in case Foyle or Howard go down. Rashard Lewis, Hedo Turkoglu, and Trevor Ariza will all see time out-of-position at the four, but they don't provide the brute strength required. Ditto for Pat Garrity, James Augustine, and Marcin Gortat, who are natural fours.

What are the goals for this team?

• Get healthy - The Magic were without Trevor Ariza, Keyon Dooling, and Rashard Lewis last week because of injuries. As a result, the team has not been able to practice at full strength in quite some time. Those three will likely play 20+ minutes per game once they are healthy. Until they are, the Magic are going to have to make due with what little else they have and hope it's able to get them through a grueling November.
• Win a playoff series - After a four-year absence, the Magic returned to the playoffs last season despite having a losing record. They were swept unceremoniously in the first round by the Detroit Pistons. It was the first playoff appearance of the Dwight Howard era, so the Magic were already expected to build upon that by making another playoff trip. But the arrival of Rashard Lewis has raised the bar for this team, so to speak, so they must advance past the first round of the playoffs for the season to be considered a success.
  
  For the record, the Magic have not won a playoff series since 1996.

How many times will some commentator or columnist mention Rashard Lewis' contract?

More than I can even begin to articulate. You know how last year Theo Ratliff didn't exist, but Theo Ratliff's Expiring Contract did? That's what it's going to be like for the Magic and Rashard Lewis. If he's playing well, they'll say the Magic have gotten their money's worth. If he's playing poorly, they'll say the Magic overpaid for a one-dimensional, one-time All-Star who has never had to lead a team in his life. It won't end. I'm already sick of it.

Predicted record: 46-36
Despite having a losing record last season, the Magic had a positive point differential, indicating that they were coached out of some victories. Their expected record last season was 43-39, and based on the personnel changes, they're probably a 50-win team now. However, given the inevitable injury to a regular rotation player (or two) at midseason, and given an adjustment period to Stan Van Gundy's new offense, and given the team's difficult opening schedule, I'm predicting a modest three-game improvement for the Magic, or 46 wins. That should be enough to make the playoffs; in fact, it may be enough to win the Southeast Division. Call me cautiously optimistic.