The Philadelphia 76ers' addition of Elton Brand has some NBA experts picking them to make it to the NBA Finals.

File photo by Tom Mihalek, the Associated Press

If you're interested in NBA predictions made in early September, then ESPN has you covered. 25 of its NBA experts huddled and predicted the 2008/2009 standings, year-end-awards, conference champions, and NBA champions. What I'm most interested in is the Eastern Conference predictions: 17 of ESPN's experts picked the Boston Celtics to come out of the East once again; 6 of them picked the Cleveland Cavaliers to make it to the Finals for the second time in three years; and 2 of them picked the re-Branded Philadelphia 76er team to advance.

That's 0 votes for the veteran-laden Detroit Pistons and 0 votes for the up-and-coming Orlando Magic.

And yet what strikes me the most is the support for Philadelphia. There's no doubt that they were the surprise team of the East last year, finishing with a 40-42 record and playing fantastic ball after the All-Star break. There's also no doubt that the addition of Elton Brand will improve them tremendously, possibly into 50-win territory. In fact, Sixersoul points to the Magic's acquisition of Rashard Lewis last summer, which pushed them from 40 wins in the previous season to 52 in the subsequent one, as proof that the 76ers are poised to make a tremendous leap.

However, not everyone agrees with that assessment. Clipper Steve of Clips Nation, who's as familiar with Brand's game as anyone, is one of the skeptics. He describes at length why he thinks the 76ers are overhyped. Their "Big Three" of Brand, Andre Iguodala, and Samuel Dalembert is weak in comparison to other trios in the East, and they lack a guy who can deliver in the clutch.

So now, sparked by Steve's discussion of the 76ers, I pose this question: which moving-and-shaking Eastern team is most likely to leapfrog Orlando, which finished behind only Boston and Detroit last season, in the standings next season? Here are the choices, in no particular order:

• Cleveland added Mo Williams;
• Philadelphia added Brand;
• the Washington Wizards re-signed Antawn Jamison and will have their other two stars, Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler, healthy to start the season;
• the Toronto Raptors re-signed Jose Calderon and traded for former All-Star Jermaine O'Neal;
• and even the Miami Heat, with rookie star Michael Beasley and standout Olympian Dwyane Wade, might turn some heads this season.

Choose wisely.

The Spurs re-signed Kurt Thomas, the forward/center whom the Magic coveted at the deadline. Meanwhile, a day after acquiring combo guard Keyon Dooling from Orlando, the Nets sent backup point guard (and object of Magic fans' affection) Marcus Williams to the Warriors for a future first-round pick.

Oh, and the Magic's chances of re-signing Carlos Arroyo -- already a long shot -- took a big hit when he tore a leg muscle during an Olympic qualifying tournament.

But Javaris Crittenton, long connected to the Magic in trade rumors, is still in play. The Grizzlies' young combo guard is likely the odd-man-out in Memphis, which wants to focus on developing O.J. Mayo, Mike Conley, and Kyle Lowry. I think Crittenton would be a home-run acquisition for Otis Smith and the Magic. For one thing, he's tall (6'05"). For another, his presence would make both J.J. Redick and Keith Bogans more expendable than they already are... assuming they weren't the guys dealt for Crittenton in the first place. Finally, it would mean fewer minutes for Anthony Johnson, the Magic's 34-year-old current backup, whose talent level befits that of a third-stringer.

Could Mikki Moore be an option? The Kings spent their full mid-level on the veteran power forward last summer, but might look to unload him to free-up playing time for youngsters Spencer Hawes, Shelden Williams, and Jason Thompson. Kings fan pookeyguru, whom you may know from his participation in the Sactown Royalty community, would swap Moore for Redick and Brian Cook.

I still support the idea of swapping Redick and Cook for Jeff Foster, but I doubt the Pacers would part with him now that they've dealt Jermaine O'Neal to Toronto for T.J. Ford, Rasho Nesterovic, and riff-raff.

Maybe we overestimate the Magic's need for another player at the power positions. After all, Tony Battie will make his return this season, and figures to steal some minutes from Adonal Foyle (at center) and Rashard Lewis/Cook (at power forward). And Marcin Gortat, who played in more post-season games than regular-season ones, showed promise. But you'll forgive me for feeling nervous about a big-man rotation that includes Lewis, Battie, Gortat, Foyle, and James Augustine.

What's the Magic's biggest area of need? Whom should they target to fill that need?

John Hollinger used defensive stats and firsthand observation to find out which players are the best defenders in the NBA. The results are in. He has his All-Defense First, Second, and Third teams up at ESPN.com. Two Magic players made the cut. Keyon Dooling and Dwight Howard, come on down!

Hollinger on Keyon:

I was skittish about putting somebody who played so little so high up the list, but he's an active defender with good size, plus he can guard two positions and willingly pressures the ball. More importantly, his numbers pretty much leap off the page in terms of how much better the Magic defend with him on the court.

Indeed, the Magic are fantastic defensively when Dooling is on the court, holding offenses to 104.4 points per 100 possessions. To put that in perspective, only three teams have better defenses over the whole season: Boston (100.0), Houston (103.0), and San Antonio (103.8). (Sources: 82games' page for Keyon Dooling and KnickerBlogger's stat page)

Hollinger on Dwight:

To me, the two more pertinent numbers are that opposing centers had a 12.9 PER against him and that Orlando is seventh in defensive efficiency with Howard as the only truly strong defender in the starting lineup.

The average PER is 15. According to Hollinger's stat page, then, Jermaine O'Neal is the "averagest" center in the NBA, currently posting a PER of 15.02. The center with the closest PER to what Dwight allows is DeSagana Diop, who, as Hollinger notes, is "so poor offensively that he hardly plays."

Further illustrating Howard's great defense is this statistic, which Magic fans and broadcasters repeat ad nausem: the Magic are 26-3 this season in games in which Dwight blocks three shots or more.

If we're able to re-sign Keyon this summer, and if Tony Battie returns completely healthy, we should be a top-five defense next season. And if our offense clicks the way it has this season, we'll be pretty damn hard to beat.

Carlos Arroyo looks to pass around the defense of the Indiana's Jermaine O'Neal in the Magic's 115-109 loss to the Pacers on Friday night.
Photo by Phelan M. Ebanhack, the Associated Press

The Magic held a 15-point lead over the Pacers in the second half, but were significantly outplayed down the stretch and lost the game in the end, 115-109. Danny Granger, whom the Magic panned on in favor of Fran Vazquez the 2005 draft, lead the Pacers with 27 points on 6-of-7 three-point shooting. Here's the box score.

Without question, tonight's game was the most frustrating one of the season. Even our embarrassing loss against the Pistons wasn't this bad because I never got the sense we were going to win that one. The Pacers just hung around, waited for us to cool off, then took advantage of their opportunities. They also created opportunities by forcing 23 turnovers, 14 of them on steals. 14 steals!  

Here's what I don't understand: we're playing a fast-moving team with good perimeter scorers, yet we didn't play Keyon Dooling, our best bench player, at all. He was healthy, dressed, and available to play, but he didn't get into the game. He certainly would have helped defensively, and he's been hot offensively of late. Stan Van Gundy indeed made a dire mistake by not putting him in the game.

Credit the Pacers for sticking to their game plan and for not backing down from a superior opponent. They won this game every bit as much as we lost it. In the end, it's just one game out of 82. For the first 20 games, we beat the teams we were supposed to beat. That changed tonight, but blowing one game out of 21 isn't so bad, right?

Miscellaneous stuff:

• The Magic's lineup at the end of the third quarter: Carlos Arroyo, J.J. Redick, Keith Bogans, Brian Cook, and James Augustine. I don't think that lineup would have even seen the floor in the preseason.
• Dwight Howard had 30 points and 15 rebounds, but the Magic lost anyway. Orlando is now 3-4 this season in games in which Howard scores 30 or more points.
• James Augustine spent time at center for the first time in his career.
• 7 of the 8 Pacers who played scored in double-figures. The one who didn't Shawne Williams, made up for it by grabbing 5 rebounds.
• Despite being the only Orlando bench player to score in double-figures, and being praised by Stan Van Gundy as the only Magic player who "brought it" tonight, Maurice Evans turned in a team-worst +/- rating of -10. Go figure.
• Granger's 27-point outburst is one of many good performances by players we passed on in the 2005 draft. Remember when Sean May came off the bench for Charlotte last year and torched us for 32 points? Me too.

	vs.
16-4		9-10
Amway Arena
7:00 PM
FSN Florida
Probable starters:
Jameer Neson	PG	Jamaal Tinsley
Keith Bogans	SG	Mike Dunleavy
Hedo Turkoglu	SF	Danny Granger
Rashard Lewis	PF	Jermaine O'Neal
Dwight Howard	C	Jeff Foster

• The Pacers don't have a great collection of talent. So how are they hovering around .500? With balance and teamwork, according to Indy Cornrows.
• The Magic should be happy Jermaine O'Neal will play tonight. As my colleague Steve at Clips Nation pointed out before the Pacers played the Clippers the other night, the Pacers are worse off when Jermaine O'Neal plays.
• It's a shame we don't have Trevor Ariza around anymore. He's good at dunking on O'Neal:
  Photo by Stephen M. Dowell, the Orlando Sentinel
• Indiana plays at the second-fastest pace in the league; only Denver averages more possessions per game. Golden State and Phoenix get more hype as running-and-gunning teams because of their reputation. If the Pacers keep this up, they'll soon be branded one of the league's more fun teams to watch.
• Speaking of Phoenix, the Pacers sure gave them a helluva game the other night. They played the Suns better than we did in both our tries this season. We shouldn't let our guard down.
• Expect Dwight Howard and his Magic teammates to get to the foul line frequently tonight. The Pacers allow more free-throw attempts per game than any other defense in the league. In spite of their charitable ways, they're still in the top half of the league in defensive efficiency.

Should be a close one tonight; I don't think the Pacers are pushovers. I'll be listening to the game for free online thanks to NBA Audio League Pass. It's awesome. Please tell your friends.