This post outlines some numbers and facts to consider before the start of free-agency. Teams can begin negotiating with players on July 1st but cannot sign anyone until July 11th. I obtained all the player salary data in this post from HoopsHype.com. I obtained the salary-cap and exception estimations from DraftExpress (via Canis Hoopus)

The Magic have seven players with guaranteed contracts for the 2008/09 season. They will also have the 22nd overall pick in the upcoming draft, and thus will have eight players under contract when free-agency begins July 1st. As shown below, these eight players will earn a total of $55.23 million.

They also have three players who could return depending on their contract options. Keith Bogans and Adonal Foyle own player options, and the team has an option on Marcin Gortat. All three players are expected to return; Bogans and Foyle likely will not find better offers, and the team appears to think highly of Gortat, as he earned the backup center role in the playoffs. If all three players return, the Magic will owe them a combined $4.88 million, as this table shows.

The Magic will owe these eleven players a total of $60.11 million, which is above the estimated salary cap ($58.50 million). Because the team will be over the cap, they will have the right to use the mid-level exception (estimated at $5.55 million). Additionally, the Magic will have the right to use the bi-annual exception (estimated at $1.91 million) because they did not use it last year. These exceptions give the Magic an extra $7.46 million with which to fill their roster. Please see this section of Larry Coon's invaluable NBA Salary Cap FAQ for more information on these exceptions.

So, if all eleven players return (as we suspect they will) and if the team uses both exceptions, the Magic will owe $67.57 million to their players. That figure is below the estimated luxury-tax threshold ($71 million).

We expect their first priority will be re-signing Keyon Dooling, who earned $3.5 million last season and will likely seek a raise based on his strong play, as he became the Magic's top reserve with his defensive and shot-creating skills. Maurice Evans and Carlos Arroyo might return, but Evans will look to triple his salary (he earned $1.5 million last season) and Arroyo would have to accept a heavy paycut ($4.0 million last season). We don't expect either of them to return, nor do we expect the team to offer contracts to little-used power forwards James Augustine or Pat Garrity. As such, we've left them out of the table below.

Yes, the Magic have plenty of choices to make this offseason, but none of them as significant (or as franchise-defining) as the ones they made last summer, namely signing Rashard Lewis and extending Dwight Howard's contract. However, these smaller transactions may turn out to be more significant, as the team appears to be only a player or two away from seriously contending for the NBA title.

NOTES:

• ¹: As of July 1, 2008
• ²: 2008/09 season
• ³: Estimated

This attitude is what the Magic need more of. From Dwight's comments after the Magic beat the Wizards on Wednesday:

"Everybody knows what LeBron did, everybody remembers," Magic center Dwight Howard said. "I want to be remembered."

[....]

"We want Toronto to feel like they're in hell."

I want Dwight to be remembered, too, and not just for the Superman dunk. He can ascend from Superstardom to, uh, Superduperstardom (?) if he can dominate in the playoffs. As much as we worry about not having anyone who can guard Chris Bosh, it's easy to lose sight of the fact that somebody on the Raptors has to guard Howard. On whom will the Raptors call? How has Dwight done against that person historically?

Enter Rasho Nesterovic, the veteran center who's having a career renaissance in April, averaging 16 points, 6 rebounds, and 60% shooting from the field. But the focus of this piece is defense, so let's get to it. 82games shows us that he held opposing centers to a PER of 13.8 this season. That's all well and good, but how did he and Dwight do against one another in the regular season? Let's take a look:

These resources can't tell us who guarded whom in these stretches, so take the results with a grain of salt. However, it's reasonable to assume that Dwight and Rasho were indeed matched-up with one another. That was most evident in the third game, when the Raptors were without Bosh. Dwight scored 19 points in 29 minutes, but the play-by-play shows he did most of that damage when Rasho was off the floor. Overall, Dwight's total of 12 points in 26:36 against Nesterovic puts him on pace for 16.2 points per 36 minutes, well below his season average of 19.8 points per 36, which suggests that the Raptors can indeed rely on Nesterovic to contain Howard.

But can they afford to play him heavy minutes? Does he negatively impact the offense? While the Raptors are nearly 6 points worse per 100 possessions when Nesterovic is on the court, they shouldn't fret; when on the floor with the Raptors' other starters (T.J. Ford, Anthony Parker, Jamario Moon, and Bosh), Toronto outscores its opponent 82% of the time.

But...

When Dwight's motivated, he's awesome. After Stan Van Gundy famously called him out for his lack of effort, Dwight responded with a 23-point, 24-rebound effort against the Denver Nuggets, who employ Marcus Camby, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, at center.

So, one table and several paragraphs later, we're no closer to figuring out how Dwight will do against Rasho. Considering that Chris Bosh will get his points (probably 35 a game), and that Jamario Moon's athleticism poses problems for Hedo Turkoglu, it's important that Dwight at least scores at his usual rate. He's had trouble with Nesterovic in the past, but the playoffs are a different animal.

And so is Dwight.

	vs.
38-23		32-26
Amway Arena
7:00 PM
FSN Florida, NBA TV
Probable starters:
Carlos Arroyo	PG	Jose Calderon
Maurice Evans	SG	Anthony Parker
Hedo Turkoglu	SF	Jamario Moon
Rashard Lewis	PF	Andrea Bargnani
Dwight Howard	C	Rasho Nesterovic

UPDATE: See the newest post for the scoop (courtesy of Tim Povtak) that J.J. Redick may play "significant" minutes tonight, as Keith Bogans is doubtful with a strained stomach muscle.

The Raptors won't have Chris Bosh. We won't have Jameer Nelson Keith Bogans or Keyon Dooling. Oddly enough, I think that favors Toronto. As the Raptors proved in a December 2006 visit to Amway Arena, they don't need Bosh in the lineup to hand our hats to us. "Sure," you may say, "But we didn't have Hedo Turkoglu for that game, and we'll have him tonight." Well, we had him for the Raptors' second visit to Amway last season and he scored a career-high 37 points... in a losing effort.

What worries me the most about tonight's game is Carlos Arroyo and Jameer Nelson having to guard T.J. Ford and Jose Calderon. If Dwight Howard doesn't assert himself in the paint, it's going to be a long night. There are only a few players in this league who can prevent Ford and Calderon from getting into the paint. Carlos Arroyo is not one of those players. Neither is Jameer.

Brian Schmitz notes that this game could have huge playoff implications. We've split the season-series with Toronto so far, so if it wins tonight, it will own the head-to-head tiebreaker should we finish with the same record.

For some Raptors perspective, check out Dinosty, T. Jose Caldeford, and Hoops Addict. Tipoff's at 7. Go Magic.

	vs.
28-23		34-21
Air Canada Centre
7:00 PM
Sun Sports
Probable starters:
Jose Calderon	PG	Jameer Nelson
Anthony Parker	SG	Maurice Evans
Jamario Moon	SF	Hedo Turkoglu
Chris Bosh	PF	Rashard Lewis
Andrea Bargnani	C	Dwight Howard

Tonight's game marks the Raptors' first in exactly a week. The All-Star break was fairly kind to Toronto. Jason Kapono defended his Three-Point Shootout crown, and Chris Bosh started for the Eastern team for the second straight season.

Toronto is a team that concerns me because it matches up well against Orlando. Bosh is a big guy, but he doesn't exclusively play down low. Ditto for Andrea Bargnani. The point is there's no one for Dwight Howard to guard, because he's loathe to go out on the perimeter. He'll almost certainly check Bosh, but if he uses his quick first step well, he'll go directly to the basket with almost no resistance.

Speaking of Bosh: he's one of the funniest guys in the NBA. First, he imitated a used-car salesman to campaign for All-Star votes; more recently, he became Blane Harrington, an Oxford graduate, in this hilarious entry. It's appropriate that I mention Bosh's sense of humor because the Magic are a joke to him. He set a career-high of 41 points in a game against us last year, a number he has since bested in a game against the Suns.

Check out the Dinosty for a Raptors perspective.

Tipoff's at 7:00 on Sun Sports. Don't worry about missing the Suns/Lakers game, in which Shaquille O'Neal will make his Phoenix debut against his former pal, Kobe Bryant; it doesn't start until 9:00.

	vs.
2-2		3-1
Air Canada Centre
7:00 PM
FSN Florida
Probable starters:
T.J. Ford	PG	Carlos Arroyo
Anthony Parker	SG	Keith Bogans
Jason Kapono	SF	Hedo Turkoglu
Chris Bosh	PF	Rashard Lewis
Andrea Bargnani	C	Dwight Howard

25 words or fewer: Two teams expected to contend for division championships square off in the second half of back-to-back games.

Know your enemy: The Raptors got crushed by the Bucks last night, but that shouldn't make us feel any better. Toronto was one of two teams to beat us four times in the regular season in 2006/2007.

Useless information: Toronto center Andrea Bargnani, the first overall pick in the 2006 NBA Draft, has eligibility at small forward, power forward, and center in Yahoo! Sports fantasy leagues.

Bullet points:

• Despite the fact that both teams played last night, the Raptors should still be favored. Why? Because they got blown out, only one of their starters, T.J. Ford, played more than 20 minutes. Their starting lineup should be well-rested, not to mention motivated.
• Contrast the Raptors' situation with that of the Magic, who played all their starters at least 31 minutes last night. Considering the Magic bench's ineptitude so far, we fans should be worried.
• No word yet on if Jameer Nelson is feeling well enough to start tonight. He'll be re-evaluated later today.
• Considering the Raptors' abundance of international players, shouldn't Carlos Arroyo start anyway? He loves international competition. He absolutely shredded the Chinese National Team while getting starters' minutes in an exhibition game last month.
• The Orlando Sentinel's game preview notes the Magic have not won a game in Canada since 2003. Juwan Howard and Drew Gooden posted double-doubles in that game for Orlando, and Tracy McGrady scored 29 points.
• Chris Bosh is, like Chauncey Billups and Jannero Pargo, a Magic Killer. In 11 career games against the Magic, CB4 has averaged 20.8 points. The only team against which he has averaged more points is Charlotte.