Lots of hats to tip today.

• Fox Sports' Charley Rosen watched the Magic/Raptors game last night and posted this analysis of Hedo Turkoglu's performance. He notes that Turkoglu got 59 touches in 40 minutes, and brought the ball up the court on 11 occasions. I'm interested to see if that latter trend continues; might Jameer Nelson play better off-the-ball? (HT: user Kwik10z at MagicMadness.)
• The New York Times' website has a cool feature with former NBA coach Jeff Van Gundy breaking down ways to defend against the league's best players. Check out each animation, but pay special attention to the Ray Allen one. Although we don't play the Celtics at all for the rest of the regular season, we may face them in the playoffs. (HT: user "And One" from BallHype)
• Doug Smith of the Toronto Star reports that Toronto center centre Primoz Brezec didn't appreciate Stuff hanging around the Raptors' bench... so he punched him. Pretty pathetic on Primoz's part, but I'd rather him take his frustration out on Stuff than on, say, Dwight Howard. (HT: Ball Don't Lie, which just got a makeover)
• Brian Schmitz apologizes to blog readers who got their hopes up for a J.J. Redick sighting last night. One emailer wrote the following:

  Well I finally thought I was getting something for my $ 159 league pass upon seeing today's articles. So I sat down with a nice Merlot. Someone down there owes me a bottle of wine.. and cheese.

  I'm sorry, too; it's sad that there are people out there who can't enjoy a basketball game unless their favorite player gets some burn. Don't get me wrong: I want to see J.J. play. He deserves a chance. But if he doesn't, my night isn't ruined. Then again, I didn't shell out $ 159 for a premium cable package.

• Speaking of players who inspire similar fair-weatheredness, Carlos Arroyo may be a free-agency target for the Knicks this summer, says Marc Berman of the New York Post. I doubt the Magic have much interest in re-signing Carlos -- if it came down to keeping him or Keyon Dooling, Otis Smith would choose Dooling 10 times out of 10 -- and the Knicks need a point guard. Makes sense to me, although I'd hate to lose Carlos' relatively consistent play and community presence. (HT: user "kcudah" from BallHype)

I'm off to the haberdashery, but should be back in time for tipoff. Don't forget to check out the game thread for tonight's Magic/Wizards game.

Neither team looks like it wants to play. The Magic and Raptors have combined to shoot 36-of-92 from the field, or 39%. Dwight Howard has scored just one point for us in 12 minutes, hampered by foul trouble. He does have 10 rebounds, though, so there's that. If he can keep his hands to himself, he should get plenty of touches in the second half, and shouldn't have too much trouble with Rasho Nesterovic and Primoz Brezec.

Rashard Lewis came to play tonight, that's for sure. He leads all scorers with 13 points; additionally, he recorded a beautiful steal on a crosscourt pass, which he took the other way for an easy dunk. Actually, that may have been the only dunk in the game so far...

No sign of J.J. Redick, as Keith Bogans indeed felt well enough to play. He saw just 3 minutes of playing time, but so far he's impressed more than Maurice Evans has; Mo is 1-of-6 from the field and 0-for-4 from downtown... in 17 minutes. Not very good.

This game has been pretty hard to watch, yes. Hopefully, the teams will pick up the intensity in the second half. I suspect that may happen, as this game parallels the 96-93 victory over Boston in late January: the Magic are matched-up, at home, in a nationally televised game, against an Eastern conference foe missing its best player. If that holds true, the Magic will pull away in the third period thanks to a three-point barrage from Brian Cook, only to watch the lead slip away in the fourth period.

Final note: We absolutely need to get a hand in Jose Calderon's face. By my unofficial count, he's hit his last four field-goal attempts.

Not to pile on Otis Smith, but the Magic are the only Eastern Conference team currently over .500 not to make at least one roster move to improve itself in the past month. To recap:

1. Boston Celtics (44-12)
   • Sign forward P.J. Brown out of retirement
   • Sign free-agent guard Sam Cassell (bought-out by the Los Angeles Clippers, a decision with which ClipperSteve does not agree)
2. Detroit Pistons (42-16)
   • Acquire guard Juan Dixon from the Toronto Raptors for center Primoz Brezec
   • Sign free-agent center Theo Ratliff (bought-out by the Minnesota Timberwolves)
3. Orlando Magic (37-23)
4. Toronto Raptors (32-24)
   • Acquire center Primoz Brezec from the Detroit Pistons for guard Juan Dixon
5. Cleveland Cavaliers (32-26)
   • Acquire forwards Joe Smith and Ben Wallace from the Chicago Bulls for foward Drew Gooden and guard Larry Hughes
   • Acquire forward Wally Szczerbiak and guard Delonte West from the Seattle SuperSonics for forwards Donyell Marshall and Ira Newble

Okay, maybe the Raptors getting Brezec from the Pistons doesn't count, but the fact remains: the teams around us are at least trying to improve, and we aren't. The Magic, as constituted the day of the trade deadline, were certainly not talented enough to defeat Boston, Detroit, or Toronto in a seven-game series. Now? They're arguably not talented enough to take down Cleveland, either. Even more troublesome is the fact that Toronto and Cleveland are potential first-round playoff opponents for us, which makes the possibility of an early vacation for us much more immediate.

As MME wrote at Bold 'n' Blue, the Magic are the only team in the NBA this season to beat Boston and Detroit twice each. However, one win against each of those teams came on a game-winning shot, and another came down to a missed last-second shot by the opponent. Only one, the most recent victory over the Pistons, was decisive by any stretch of the imagination.

On the day of the trade deadline, I considered Detroit the most formidable of any of these plus-.500 teams. Now that Boston has added two talented, savvy, playoff-proven veterans, I'm even more frightened of them. In last season's playoffs, Detroit's Chris Webber and Dale Davis (who no longer play for the Pistons) hacked Dwight Howard into a funk he could not shake. They intimidated him. The Celtics now have P.J. Brown, who can similarly pester Dwight. Celtics coach Doc Rivers can also dust-off Scot Pollard, who is good for six fouls a game. Meanwhile, Sam Cassell has 115 games of playoff experience, and still has the skills to pick-apart younger point guards; see this season's 35-point undressing of the Pacers' Jamaal Tinsley for proof.

Theo Ratliff is finally healthy, and he gives the Pistons the same toughness that Davis and Webber provided them last year. He's still a good shot-blocker, and can be trusted in late-game situations; in the fourth quarter of Game 7 in a playoff series, with Rasheed Wallace fouled out, Pistons coach Flip Saunders will go with Ratliff over emerging youngster Amir Johnson 11 times out of 10.

Cleveland is similarly tougher with Ben Wallace and Joe Smith. Even with Wallace's declining skills, he's still more of a banger than Drew Gooden ever was or ever will be. Adding those two guys to a frontcourt that already boasted Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Anderson Varejao makes the Cavaliers a team built for hard-nosed playoff basketball. Also, they have LeBron James.

As for Toronto, they're already a better team. As ESPN.com's John Hollinger mentioned yesterday (Insider, although it's free for right now), Toronto has a better point differential than we do, and point differential is a better indicator of a team's ability that won-loss record is:

Let's put it more simply: The Raps aren't beating people, they're killing them. Toronto topped Milwaukee by 31, Washington by 39, Miami by 32, Minnesota by 23 and 22, New Jersey by 18, Orlando by 17, and New York by 23. In a 16-game stretch, half their games were blowout wins.

Sum it up and you'll see in that modest-looking 16-game stretch [during which Toronto is 10-6] the Raptors are outscoring opponents by an impressive 10 points per game.

Chris Bosh and Dwight Howard play well against each other, so the real difference-making factor for the Raptors in a series against us is the point guard tandem of Jose Calderon and T.J. Ford. There's no way that either Jameer Nelson or Keyon Dooling can shut both of those guys down; they get into the lane at will and have the three-point shooters to make defenses pay for collapsing on them. The Raptors, as a team, shoot 40% from beyond the arc, is tops in the NBA.

So should we just give up and concede the conference to these teams? No, of course not. We can beat any of these teams in a playoff series, but the odds are decidedly not in our favor. After reading this post by Matt at Hardwood Paroxysm, I decided to contact him to chat about D-League players who could help Orlando. Click "Permalink" below to read what he had to say.

Continue reading this post »

Tim Povtak has the scoop on the Magic's trade-deadline "activity," which yielded no roster moves. Here's an infuriating quote from the article:

"You have to ask yourself, 'is there something out there that could make us better?' The answer was 'no,'" said Magic General Manager Otis Smith. "So I'm not disappointed at all. I like what we have right now."

I understand Otis is worried about chemistry or whatever, but clearly there were big-men available. The Bulls dumped both Ben Wallace and Joe Smith today, receiving Drew Gooden in return. Less conspicuously, the Pistons dumped Primoz Brezec. And yesterday, the SuperSonics dumped Kurt Thomas. Povtak's article mentions the Magic were in the running for Thomas, but Otis was reluctant to part with Carlos Arroyo in the deal. Carlos Arroyo was the sticking point in a deal to acquire Kurt Thomas?! He was our best trade asset; not only was he the best player we had with an expiring contract, but his contract had the highest value ($4 million). A Jameer Nelson/Keyon Dooling tandem at point guard would have worked just fine. Sure, an injury to one of those guys would have sapped our depth, but not as badly as one might think. Hedo Turkoglu can handle the ball and is more than capable of playing point forward. Ugh.

This whole deadline has been incredibly disappointing. Cleveland certainly improved by acquiring Wallace, Smith, and Wally Szczerbiak, and now shuld be considered a more talented team than the Magic. Add to that the fact that Toronto's Chris Bosh and Jose Calderon both consistently crush us, and we suddenly don't look so good.

The trek to a championship just got a whole lot more perilous.

UPDATE: Some Magic fans are calling for Otis Smith to be fired after his decision not to make a move at the deadline. Hrm.

UPDATE #2: John Denton got Otis to comment on not trading the expiring contracts:

"If we would have [traded the expiring contracts], it might have precluded us from doing anything this summer. I like the flexibility. What you are taking back for those expiring contracts has to be something that you really like. And in a lot of cases it just wasn't much better than what we had already."

Um, what? Trading an expiring contract would have let us upgrade the team significantly right now, plus we'd still have the mid-level exception to use on another solid rotation player this summer. Now, we'll only have the mid-level. We had the chance to upgrade two positions; now, we'll only be able to upgrade one. Nice going.

Otis also mentioned that Tony Battie will not return at any point this season, not even for the playoffs. Brian Cook, come on down!

Well, this one's up really late. Sorry about that.  

	vs.
8-12		16-7
Charlotte Bobcats Arena
8:00 PM
ESPN, FSN Florida
Probable starters:
Raymond Felton	PG	Jameer Nelson
Jason Richardson	SG	Keith Bogans
Gerald Wallace	SF	Hedo Turkoglu
Emeka Okafor	PF	Rashard Lewis
Primoz Brezec (?)	C	Dwight Howard

UPDATE: Thanks to Detroit Bad Boys for pointing out this A. Sherrod Blakely blog post which reports the Pistons have traded Nazr Mohammed to Charlotte for Primoz Brezec and Walter Herrmann. I assume this trade means Brezec won't be available for Charlotte tonight. Perhaps Ryan Hollins will start in his place?

Brian Schmitz reports Carlos Arroyo is out again tonight with a sore foot. Jameer and Keyon will have to pick up the slack. He also mentions that Stan Van Gundy will be wearing a microphone as part of the NBA's attempt to give fans more access to the game.

Of course, if you don't like the Worldwide Leader's NBA coverage, you can catch the game on Sun Sports FSN Florida.

Sorry about that. My mistake.

	vs.
6-5		10-3
Amway Arena
7:00 PM
No local TV
Probable starters:
Raymond Felton	PG	Jameer Nelson
Jason Richardson	SG	Keith Bogans
Gerald Wallace	SF	Hedo Turkoglu
Emeka Okafor	PF	Rashard Lewis
Primoz Brezec	C	Dwight Howard

The holiday has forced me to abbreviate this game preview, but I do have some quick thoughts:

• This game has "letdown" written all over it. The Magic have only lost to elite teams this year, but they're bound to lose to average ones at some point. With the Heat/Van-Gundy-vs.-Riley showdown on Saturday, the Magic may be looking past Charlotte, which they simply can't do if they hope to win. Gerald Wallace has snapped out of his early-season funk and Raymond Felton is having a career year.
• I want to see what the new guys can do, which obviously involves them being on the active roster for the game and somehow carving out some minutes. And even then, I won't be able to literally see the game; it's not locally televised. Maybe I'll end up buying a ticket and seeing it in person. Hrm.

	vs.
0-0		0-1
Amway Arena
7:00 PM
Probable starters:
Raymond Felton	PG	Jameer Nelson
Jason Richardson	SG	??? J.J. Redick
Gerald Wallace	SF	Hedo Turkoglu Rashard Lewis
Emeka Okafor	PF	Rashard Lewis Dwight Howard
Ryan Hollins	C	Dwight Howard Adonal Foyle

UPDATE: Big props to John Denton of Florida Today, who reports that Adonal Foyle and J.J. Redick will start tonight for the Magic. I've updated the Probable Starters box above to reflect these lineup changes.

25 words or fewer: The Magic will look to rebound from Monday's loss against Atlanta by taking on the Charlotte Bobcats, who will be opening their preseason schedule.

Know your enemy: The Bobcats, like the Magic, made significant personnel changes this summer: They obtained high-scoring swingman Jason Richardson from Golden State on draft night and they hired first-year head coach Sam Vincent. Tonight's game will mark their first chance to see how well Richardson plays with franchise cornerstones Gerald Wallace and Emeka Okafor, and how the Bobcats adapt to the faster-paced style that Vincent wants to play.

Useless information: The Bobcats defeated the Magic for their first-ever win, 111-110, on November 6th, 2004. Primoz Brezec lead Charlotte with 20 points, and Cuttino Mobley paced the Magic with 23. Pat Garrity scored 6 points on 1-of-10 shooting. Way to go, Pat!

Bullet points:

• Tonight's game will not be televised, but the radio broadcast will be available for free at NBA.com by signing up for NBA Audio League Pass. All you have to do is create an NBA.com account, which only takes a minute. Dennis Neumann and Richie Adubato have the call for the Magic.
• I really have no idea who will start at shooting guard for the Magic. Keith Bogans got the nod on Monday night, but was benched after failing to get back on defense. As a result, J.J. Redick played starters' minutes. There's a chance that Stan Van Gundy will give Bogans another chance to start, especially after his strong performance in camp last week, but it's also possible that Van Gundy will give Redick another look.
• We might get a chance to see Kevin Kruger tonight. Kruger, a 6'2" guard from UNLV, played well on the Magic's summer-league team and shot a blistering 45.5% from three-point land. He did not play Monday night.
• With the shooting guard position so wide-open, it's also possible that Torrell Martin -- and his great hair -- will get more playing time. He played just 4 minutes on Monday, but did score the game's final basket with a putback dunk on Carlos Arroyo's errant game-tying three-point attempt. You can watch it in this YouTube clip to which I linked yesterday. That said, Martin's chances of making the team are very slim, as the Magic's top priority is signing another big-man.