Matchup Analysis: Dwight Howard vs. Rasho Nesterovic
This attitude is what the Magic need more of. From Dwight's comments after the Magic beat the Wizards on Wednesday:
"Everybody knows what LeBron did, everybody remembers," Magic center Dwight Howard said. "I want to be remembered."
[....]
"We want Toronto to feel like they're in hell."
I want Dwight to be remembered, too, and not just for the Superman dunk. He can ascend from Superstardom to, uh, Superduperstardom (?) if he can dominate in the playoffs. As much as we worry about not having anyone who can guard Chris Bosh, it's easy to lose sight of the fact that somebody on the Raptors has to guard Howard. On whom will the Raptors call? How has Dwight done against that person historically?
Enter Rasho Nesterovic, the veteran center who's having a career renaissance in April, averaging 16 points, 6 rebounds, and 60% shooting from the field. But the focus of this piece is defense, so let's get to it. 82games shows us that he held opposing centers to a PER of 13.8 this season. That's all well and good, but how did he and Dwight do against one another in the regular season? Let's take a look:
| Game | Shared playing-time | Dwight's Stats | Rasho's Stats | Notes | GameFlow | Play-by-Play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0:18 | -- | -- | With just 18 seconds together, what'd you expect? | PopcornMachine | ESPN |
| 2 | 8:42 | 2-3 FGs, 3-4 FTs, 7 pts | 3-5 FGs, 6 pts |
|
PopcornMachine | ESPN |
| 3 | 17:36 | 2-4 FGs, 1-2 FTs, 5 pts | 0-5 FGs, 0 pts |
|
PopcornMachine | ESPN |
These resources can't tell us who guarded whom in these stretches, so take the results with a grain of salt. However, it's reasonable to assume that Dwight and Rasho were indeed matched-up with one another. That was most evident in the third game, when the Raptors were without Bosh. Dwight scored 19 points in 29 minutes, but the play-by-play shows he did most of that damage when Rasho was off the floor. Overall, Dwight's total of 12 points in 26:36 against Nesterovic puts him on pace for 16.2 points per 36 minutes, well below his season average of 19.8 points per 36, which suggests that the Raptors can indeed rely on Nesterovic to contain Howard.
But can they afford to play him heavy minutes? Does he negatively impact the offense? While the Raptors are nearly 6 points worse per 100 possessions when Nesterovic is on the court, they shouldn't fret; when on the floor with the Raptors' other starters (T.J. Ford, Anthony Parker, Jamario Moon, and Bosh), Toronto outscores its opponent 82% of the time.
But...
When Dwight's motivated, he's awesome. After Stan Van Gundy famously called him out for his lack of effort, Dwight responded with a 23-point, 24-rebound effort against the Denver Nuggets, who employ Marcus Camby, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, at center.
So, one table and several paragraphs later, we're no closer to figuring out how Dwight will do against Rasho. Considering that Chris Bosh will get his points (probably 35 a game), and that Jamario Moon's athleticism poses problems for Hedo Turkoglu, it's important that Dwight at least scores at his usual rate. He's had trouble with Nesterovic in the past, but the playoffs are a different animal.
And so is Dwight.
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Tonight's Game: Orlando Magic vs. Los Angeles Clippers. Special Guest - Steve from Clips Nation
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| 41-24 | 21-41 | |
| Amway Arena | ||
| 7:00 PM | ||
| Sun Sports HD | ||
| Probable starters: | ||
| Jameer Nelson | PG | Brevin Knight |
| Maurice Evans | SG | Quinton Ross |
| Hedo Turkoglu | SF | Corey Maggette |
| Rashard Lewis | PF | Al Thornton |
| Dwight Howard | C | Josh Powell |
| Season series: | ||
| 9 Jan 2008: Magic 113, Clippers 106 | ||
Given the heaps of praise piled upon the Los Angeles Lakers, it's easy for some people to forget that they share a building with the Clippers. For more on this criminally underexposed team, I checked-in with Steve from Clips Nation.
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3QC: The Clippers are in a bad way right now. Elton Brand and Shaun Livingston, two of their top-four players, have yet to play this season due to injury. Another top-four player, Corey Maggette, is worth more money than he's earning and may leave via free-agency this summer. If you could only bring one of those players back next season, which one would you choose? And why do you think that player is Clippers' key to building a winning franchise?
Steve: There's no question who everyone in ClipsNation would bring back - it's Elton Brand. And it's not close. I've wondered at times why other teams seemed to weather prolonged absences of superstar players a little better than the Generic Clippers (no Brand). I've come to the conclusion that Elton Brand, as the best all around player on the Clippers - the best scorer, the best rebounder, the best post defender, the best locker room influence, the best leader - is just that much more important to the Clipers than, say, Gilbert Arenas is to the Wizards. The Wizards replace Arenas with Antonio Daniels and there team defense gets better and their turnovers go down, while their offense definitely suffers. The Clippers replace Brand with Tim Thomas and every damn thing gets worse. EVERY DAMN THING.
In fact, I'd go so far as to say that if Brand isn't coming back, don't bother re-signing Maggette. With both of them gone, they'd be far enough under the cap to actually sign somebody (not that there's anyone out there, but still). If Brand isn't going to be here, get out the dynamite, blow it up.
Livingston is a bit of an exception - because of his uncertain status, he can probably be retained inexpensively. I don't expect him to play anywhere else next season - he and the Clippers have been through too much together. But he's a restricted free agent, and it remains to be seen how much he signs for and for how long.
The good news is that Brand is not going anywhere. He's chomping at the bit to get back on the floor this season, and would be playing on this trip if Coach would let him. And the reason he wants to play is to start getting the team ready for next season. He's committed to staying with the Clippers, and has said as much. It may only be for the final year of this contract (he has one more year, with an opt out this summer), but he'll be a Clipper next season, and so will Livingston. Maggette is a tougher call. I really have no idea what will happen with him.
3QC: The Magic and the Clippers have something in common in that they both have veteran players having career-years this season. We have Hedo Turkoglu; you have Chris Kaman. When completely healthy, how far can Kaman lead the Clippers? Is he All-Star material?
Steve: Is he All Star material? Well, the short answer is yes. He might well have been an All Star this season had he not been playing on a last place team. But I think we're finding out that he's not really cut out to be the main man - as the double teams have become more aggressive, his offensive numbers have definitely suffered. He has certainly shown that he will be a defensive and rebounding force in this league for years. He's third in the league in both rebounding and blocked shots, and maintaining that position despite playing hurt for the last month. He also is a surprisingly good on ball defender - he does ok on the pick and roll, he can cover more mobile centers - he's not just a Camby style free safety loading up on weak side blocked shots. In the absence of Brand he's had to take the tough low post assignments all season long, and he's still managed to be third in the league in blocks. (This is another reason Brand will be back - he definitely wants to play alongside this new version of Kaman. Brand has been top 10 in rebounding and blocked shots for years. If they can manage to be top 10 in those categories in the same front court it will be the first time since David Robinson and Tim Duncan - and those guys did alright together.)
This isn't actually a question; I just want to give you the opportunity to tell Magic fans, and other 3QC readers on the East Coast, how awesome Al Thornton is.
He's pretty awesome. Since I see him every night, I forget what a secret he is around the league. But never fear - everyone got to see Jeff Green in the Rookie game, so there's that. The fact that Al Thornton wasn't selected for the rookie game; the fact that he lost out to Luis Scola for February Rookie of the Month (Scola averaged 11.7 points and 5.9 rebounds while Thornton went for 17.4 and 6.3); well, that's just life in ClipsNation.
While many rookies have been hitting the Wall, Thornton has been steadily improving. He averaged 6 points in November, 8 in December, 13 in January and the aforementioned 17.6 in February, which he's pretty much maintained into March. He's also shooting better and rebounding more. In 21 games since January 30, he's been in double figures 18 times, gone for 20 or more 9 times, and had two games of 33. He's a freak of an athlete, and can score in a variety of ways. He's got a deadly first step and the ability to finish around the basket; he can create space for his jump shot; he has NBA three-point range (31 for 87 on the season); and he's got a motor that just doesn't stop. The athleticism in particular is very welcome on the Clippers. Brand is one of the less athletic superstars in the NBA. Outside of Maggette, the Clippers don't have anyone that qualifies as a flyer, let alone a high flyer. Thornton's myriad dunks this season, over Vince Carter, Chris Bosh, Josh Smith and Mikki Moore among others, are the only things getting the Clippers onto SportsCenter these days.
Perhaps most amazing for a rookie is that he's been the go to scorer in the fourth quarter of several wins. Against New Jersey he out-dueled Carter in the fourth. He scored 9 crucial fourth quarter points while being defended by Bosh in a close win on the road in Toronto. And last week against the Kings he nailed a nasty step back 20 footer on the Clippers final possession to send the game into overtime. He scored 22 points in the fourth period and overtimes combined in that game, which the Clippers eventually won. How many rookies are getting the ball in key late game possessions this season? I'll answer my own question - two. Kevin Durant and Al Thornton.
The duel emergences of Thornton and Kaman are definitely the silver lining on this cumulonimbus of a season in ClipsNation.
3QC: I like to end these Q-and-A sessions positively, so I wanted to compliment your team on its wonderful uniforms. What are your thoughts on the Clippers' on-court attire? I think the blue alternate uniforms are among the best in the entire league.
Really, that's it? That's the most positive you can be? "Nice unis."
I'm no expert by any means, but this is probably an area where the Clippers non-innovative ways have benefited them. While most of the NBA has been exploring the color pallet (teal? really?), designing ever more detailed logos, and adding black to pretty much everything (it was cool when the Bulls did it - it's just lame for the T-Wolves), the Clippers have remained with the most primary of primary colors, and logos involving nothing more than letters and a basketball. As the pendulum has swings back to old school unis, it turns out the Clippers have been there all along. That blue road uniform is a case in point - pretty much a straightforward royal blue uni with the word Los Angeles on the front. But name another team that uses that color at all? Of course, I don't think they've won while wearing that uniform in like two seasons, so I'm beginning to hate it. But it looks sharp.
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Many thanks to ClipperSteve for those thorough responses. I meant no harm in commending the Clippers for their beautiful uniforms, but I do indeed see now how that could come across as a slight. Apologies to Steve and to Clippers fans for that.
Check out my answers to his questions -- including my take on the Magic's point guard situation -- at Clips Nation.
Assorted notes:
- Corey Maggette gets to the foul line at will -- he's taken 48 foul shots in his last 5 games! -- and converts at a high rate: .841 on the season and .823 for his career. Keith Bogans and Mo Evans are going to keep him away from the basket and force him to take contested jumpers. Maggette's hitting his outside shots at an effective field goal percentage of .418, which is well below average.
- Chris Kaman is day-to-day with a sore back and may not be available this evening. If that's the case, Dwight Howard will
feast uponmatch-up against Josh Powell. - Al Thornton should go for 20+ points tonight. I don't think Rashard Lewis can stop him.
- No word on if J.J. Redick, who left the team after Saturday's loss to Golden State to be with his brother, will be in-uniform tonight. David Redick underwent successful surgery to remove a tumor from his spine on Monday.
- If J.J. isn't available, and the game is a blowout, we could very well have another Marcin Gortat sighting. I do not object to this. Free Marcin.
Tip's at 7, as usual. I may be a bit late to the party, but better late than never, amIrite?
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Orlando Magic 109, Denver Nuggets 98: The Afternoon After

Dwight Howard hauls in a rebound as Marcus Camby looks on in the Orlando Magic's 109-98 victory over the Denver Nuggets on Monday night. Howard regained the league's lead in rebounds per game with his 24-rebound performance.
Photo by Fernando Medina, NBAE/Getty Images
Okay, I'm taking my All-Star break early. Enjoy these other takes on last night's 109-98 Magic win over the Nuggets, as well as a few other odds-and-ends. See you on the other side of Sunday.
- Basketbawful included Maurice Evans in his Worst of the Night feature:
Maurice Evans: If there's a wink link in the Magic's daisy chain, it's their backcourt. And that weakness was on display last night, as Evans scored 2 points on 1-for-8 shooting. You know, starting 2-guards are supposed to score. That's what they do. But Evans is averaging 7.6 PPG. And it's not like he's much of a playmaker, either (1.1. APG).
And yet I still think the Magic would be wise to re-sign "Mogans" to a short-term deal this summer. Despite last night's egg, he's played well as a starter overall, and his defense is still above-average.
- Basketbawful, writing this time at Deadspin, has the following to say about Dwight Howard's monster performance. Superbad references abound:
Okay, calm down. Calm down, she likes you. She wants to [perform fellatio]. That's a good thing. It's the best. I'm guessing a lot of people will want to [perform fellatio on Dwight Howard] after he sunk the Denver Nuggets' battleship with 23 points and 24 rebounds, and that includes his coach, Stan Van Gundy, who called Howard out for a lack of effort after the Magic lost to Cleveland on Monday. During the postgame press conference, Van Gundy said, "We've seen games like this out of him before. It's not like Stan Van Gundy's a motivational genius and got Dwight to play." Hm. Maybe, maybe not. But Matt McHale wonders why Van Gundy speaks in the third person. Matt McHale thinks that's weird, but then, what does Matt McHale know? (I'll tell you: He knows that the Magic won 109-98.)
- Brian Schmitz says in his game recap Dwight's teammates want him to wear a Superman cape in the dunk contest this weekend.
- Lost in the commotion over Dwight's stellar night are the great second-half performances of Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu. Sweet Lew had arguably his best game in Magic white-and-blue, scoring 14 of his 25 points in the decisive third-quarter; he also added 7 rebounds. Turk, meanwhile, recovered from foul trouble to score 12 points in the fourth to put the Nuggets away for good.
- Also don't forget to note Jameer Nelson's poor game: 6-of-15 shooting for 13 points. Yuck. Still, can I legitimately complain when we managed to beat one of the league's better teams despite our starting backcourt going 7-of-23 for 15 points?
- After last week's loss to the Lakers, I wrote that Pau Gasol got away with some flops. Hardwood Paroxysm has video evidence that Gasol is, indeed, a flopper.
- More from Schmitz, who wonders if Carlos Arroyo and J.J. Redick are on the trading block. I don't think Redick will have to be included in every possible trade scenario, but he almost certainly will have to go if the other team is willing to take on Pat Garrity.
- Kurt Thomas, a potential Magic trade target, figures to see his playing time decline in Seattle during the second half of the season, as the Sonics want to play the kids a little more. From the Seattle Times (via SuperSonicSoul):
Coach P.J. Carlesimo intends to use the second half of the season to evaluate players such as C Robert Swift, C Johan Petro, G Luke Ridnour, swingman Delonte West and Gelebale at the expense of others, including starters.
Might be time to make that phone call, Otis.
Enjoy your weekend, the All-Star festivities, and Valentine's Day. For those of you who are interested in the Nets potentially trading Jason Kidd to Dallas, check out Mavs Moneyball. Wes Cox was not too happy with the deal when it was announced.
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Tonight's Game: Orlando Magic vs. Denver Nuggets
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| 32-21 | 32-19 | |
| Amway Arena | ||
| 7:00 PM | ||
| FSN Florida | ||
| Probable starters: | ||
| Jameer Nelson | PG | Anthony Carter |
| Maurice Evans | SG | Allen Iverson |
| Hedo Turkoglu | SF | Carmelo Anthony |
| Rashard Lewis | PF | Kenyon Martin |
| Dwight Howard | C | Marcus Camby |
The Nuggets are coming off a 114-113 overtime victory over the Miami Heat last night. J.R. Smith lead Denver with 28 points... in 27 minutes... on 8-of-14 three-point shooting. He has no conscience. And the Magic damn well better close out on him if they hope to win.
And ohbytheway, the Nuggets also have the league's highest-scoring duo: Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson. The theme for the Magic tonight has to be DEFENSE.
Of course, the biggest story in this game is the (overblown) "feud" between Dwight Howard and Stan Van Gundy. How will Dwight respond in his first game since his coach called him out for not playing good defense? Brian Schmitz guarantees Howard will go for 20 points and 20 rebounds, even though he'll be matched-up with Marcus Camby, the league's leading rebounder and shot-blocker. However, a big night for Dwight isn't out of the question: Mark Blount (!) managed to post 18 points and 13 boards against Camby last night, and he's Mark Blount.
Anyway, look for the Nuggets to cream us. Sure, they're on the second night of a back-to-back, but that certainly didn't bother the Cavaliers on Monday. Unless the Nuggets flat-out miss their shots, they have this one in the bag. Accuscore disagrees, as the Magic won 62% of the game simulations it ran. Don't count on it. We are not a good team right now.
For some really super-cool Nuggets p.o.v., check out Pickaxe & Roll. Jeremy, who runs the site, does a great job analyzing Nuggets games with video. Check out this video breakdown of the Nuggets' first game against the Magic, which resulted in a Denver win thanks to Anthony Carter's 14th fourth-quarter points.
Tipoff's at 7. Go Magic.
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Tonight's Game: Denver Nuggets vs. Orlando Magic
Short preview today because I went to see Juno last night. Do yourself a favor and go see it, just not at game-time tonight. This should be a good one because both teams are looking to legitimize themselves in their respective conferences. Are the Nuggets for real? What about the Magic? We'll get a pretty good idea after tonight.
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| 21-13 | 23-14 | |
| Pepsi Center | ||
| 9:00 PM | ||
| Sun Sports HD | ||
| Probable starters: | ||
| Anthony Carter | PG | Jameer Nelson |
| Allen Iverson | SG | Maurice Evans |
| Carmelo Anthony | SF | Hedo Turkoglu |
| Kenyon Martin | PF | Rashard Lewis |
| Marcus Camby | C | Dwight Howard |
I've listed Nelson and Maurice "Mogans" Evans as the starting guards because they played well together Wednesday night in Los Angeles, but it's really anyone's guess as to who will start back there at this point. Mark Price and Brooks Thompson could suit-up for us and I wouldn't be surprised.
Be sure to check out Pickaxe And Roll, the newest member of the SB Nation team, for your Denver Nuggets news.
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