You may remember this post from May, in which I tried to navigate the NBA's salary cap to see what the Magic could do this summer in free agency. Now that we're closer to the beginning of the free-agent signing period (Wednesday, July 9th), I thought I'd take another look at it. I've presented my findings in a Q-and-A format. For this post, I consulted Larry Coon's NBA Salary Cap F.A.Q., Storyteller's Contracts, ESPN's 2008 NBA Free Agent list, and the Orlando Magic's official roster page. We hope you find this guide helpful.

Question: How many players do the Magic have under contract next season, and what are they owed?

Answer: Currently, the Magic have 11 players under contract, owed a total of $60,553,339 next season. While the league has yet to release its official salary-cap data, we can say with absolute certainty that the Magic are over the salary cap. Here's how everything breaks down by player...

Note: for this table, "Age" refers to a player's age as of October 31st, 2008, when we expect the NBA season to begin.

... and by position...

Make the jump to read the rest of the Q-and-A.

Continue reading this post »

Brent Beck, a die-hard Pacers fan, really wants Indiana to make a move for J.J. Redick, as he explains in a guest post at Indy Cornrows. Considering the Pacers a) are one of my favorite teams, b) Redick is one of my favorite players, and c) the Magic have no use for him, I heartily endorse the idea of sending Redick to Indy. But, as in any trade proposal, one must consider what the Pacers have to offer the Magic. And there's an obvious answer:

Jeff Foster.

File photo by Tim Strattman, the Associated Press

The Magic need help at power forward and center. Foster, a nine-year veteran with a career PER of 14.4, plays both positions. And unlike Brian Cook, the Magic's presumed backup four next season, Foster bangs around the boards with the best of them. And I really mean "the best": he lead the NBA in Offensive Rebounding Rate (the percentage of available offensive rebounds a player snags while on the floor) in each of the last two seasons. His career ORR, 15.31, is fifth-best in the history of the league and tops among active players, even more highly paid ones like Erick Dampier, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, and Ben Wallace. And, wouldn't you know it, the Magic's biggest weakness in their first season under Stan Van Gundy was their inability to clean up their own misses: although they were nigh-elite on the defensive boards, they were horrendous on the offensive ones, finishing 27th in the league in Offensive Rebounding Rate.

Foster's presence has a tremendous impact on the Pacers' rebounding abilities as a team. Data from 82games.com show that when he's on the floor, they grab 50.9% of available rebounds, a 4.7% improvement from their average when he's off the floor. Don't let the advertising quacks fool you. "Foster" is not "Australian for 'beer,'" but rather "San Antonian for 'Rebound.'"

As always, we must consider finances when discussing potential trades. Foster's $5.70 million salary next season more than double's Redick's ($2.14 million), but the Magic can throw in a player to make the trade work. Whom might they package? Look no further than Brian Cook. At 27, he's nearly four full years younger than Foster, and while he's certainly hit his ceiling, he fits in with Indiana's younger players (average age: 26.7) better than Foster did. Additionally, Cook's specialty, three-point shooting, will come in handy in Indiana. Only the Warriors and the Magic attempted more triples last season than the Pacers did, yet they finished eighth in three-point percentage. As a bonus for Indiana, his style contrasts nicely with Ike Diogu, the so-called "steal" in the trade that sent Stephen Jackson and Al Harrington to the Warriors, who plays more of a low-post game.

And if all those reasons didn't do it for you, maybe this one will. Foster's contract expires at the end of next season, giving the Magic cap room to re-sgn Hedo Turkoglu, who will almost certainly use his opt-out clause to negotiate a contract which would reward him for his exemplary play of late. Or, if Turk decides he would rather not stay with the Magic, or if the Magic decide Turk's asking price is too high, they can try to re-sign Foster.

To me, this trade is a low-risk, high-reward proposition for the Magic. They exchange one young player who doesn't play and a veteran who doesn't fit their needs for a veteran who does fit their needs. Heck, I wouldn't mind throwing a future first-round pick into the deal if it would appease the Pacers.

When the Magic traded Trevor Ariza to the Lakers for Maurice Evans and Cook, ESPN's John Hollinger liked the deal because it was the sort of minor move that above-average teams make to take themselves to the next level. Obtaining Foster would be a similar, seemingly minor move for the Magic, but one that would pay even greater dividends. Every serious contender in the NBA gets contributions from role-players: Detroit has Antonio McDyess; San Antonio has Kurt Thomas; Boston has... well, it has three future Hall-of-Famers, so it doesn't count; and the Lakers have Derek Fisher. If the Magic want to make the most of the primes of their stars, they'd do well to acquire Foster (or another similar role-player) who may be slightly past his.

	vs.
46-26		47-23
Amway Arena
7:00 PM
FSN Florida
Probable starters:
Jameer Nelson	PG	Tony Parker
Maurice Evans	SG	Michael Finley
Hedo Turkoglu	SF	Bruce Bowen
Rashard Lewis	PF	Fabricio Oberto
Dwight Howard	C	Tim Duncan
21 Nov 2007: Spurs 128, Magic 110

The last time we played the Spurs, they pretty much killed us. How great were they? Well, we shot 56% from the field, hit 10 threes, and turned the ball over only 11 times... and we still lost by 18. The Spurs had just 3 turnovers, the Tim Duncan/Manu Ginobili/Tony Parker trio combined for 79 points on 30-of-56 shooting, and the team kept us off the offensive glass.

The biggest key for a victory tonight is containing Ginobili and Parker, which is easier said than done. Unless our point guards ate a metric ton of Wheaties this morning, they're not going to stop those two from getting into the lane, meaning Dwight Howard will need to protect the rim. He's about due, as he hasn't reached the three-block mark in a single game since March 15th vs. Indiana.

Interesting sideplot to watch: how Spurs backup center Kurt Thomas fares in black-and-silver. I was pissed when the Magic weren't able to acquire him from the SuperSonics at the trade deadline, but Seattle GM Sam Presti, who cut his teeth in the Spurs' organization, seemed determined to send Thomas to his pals in San Antonio. Recall the Spurs shipped Brent Barry and Francisco Elson to Seattle for Thomas. The SuperSonics cut Barry, who then waited the mandatory thirty-day period to re-sign with the Spurs. You'll have a hard time convincing me -- or any reasonable NBA observer -- that the Barry waiving wasn't pre-meditated. Whatever. Barry's return will not drastically alter the crazy Western Conference landscape. He's not that good anymore, but that didn't stop him from going nuts on us last time out. Ugh.

Tipoff's at 7 on FSN Florida, which sucks, because I know a lot of us are eager to see how we play against the defending World Champions. But it's not all bad: tonight's game is the last one televised on FSN for the rest of the season, meaning most Orlando residents won't have any trouble seeing the remaining 10 games of 07/08.

Check out Pounding the Rock for more on the Spurs.

Go Magic.

Most of us were perturbed that Otis Smith didn't make a trade yesterday. But maybe that wasn't such a bad thing. As John Denton tells us, the Seattle SuperSonics were asking for Carlos Arroyo, Pat Garrity, and three (!!!) future first-round draft picks in exchange for Kurt Thomas. Okay, as much as I would love to have a legit, veteran, playoff-proven power forward in the middle for us, there's no way a 35-year-old guy is worth two expiring contracts AND three draft picks, especially when we almost certainly wouldn't re-sign him anyway. So I don't blame Otis for not pulling the trigger on that deal.

Regarding Chris Wilcox, Seattle's other expendable big man: he's playing like total crap lately.

• From SuperSonicSoul on Wednesday:

  [A]nd Chris Wilcox proved - once again - that anyone who thinks he is ready to become an above-average power forward is sorely mistaken. Big Weezy showed he was still in all-star break mode by contributing 6 (!) points and 4 (!) rebounds in 30+ minutes, while his counterpart, Hakim Warrick, finished with 22 points on 18 shots.

• And from Ball Don't Lie today:

  Seattle's getting better, and it's nice to see a SuperSonics rotation that is relying almost exclusively on the young talent this team is trying to develop, but it was a pair of vets that wouldn't allow Seattle to turn the corner. Chris Wilcox could have fouled LaMarcus Aldridge out by the third quarter, but his head wasn't into it on Thursday, and Wilcox mustered only two points and two rebounds in 14 foul-plagued minutes.

Yeah, it still stings that Joe Smith got traded -- could we have gotten in on that deal? -- but given that he's playing absolutely out-of-his-mind right now, we probably wouldn't have had the goods to acquire him.

For what it's worth, ESPN.com's John Hollinger went back and graded every trade in the NBA this season. He gives us a B for trading Trevor Ariza for Maurice Evans and Brian Cook:

Could the Magic have tried harder to find a role for Ariza? Probably. Was upgrading their situation at the 2 more important than fitting Ariza's non-shooting ways into their space-the-floor system? Absolutely [....] [A]lthough I like this trade a little better from L.A.'s end, this is another deal that clearly helped both teams.

Maybe Otis knows what he's doing after all.

Tim Povtak has the scoop on the Magic's trade-deadline "activity," which yielded no roster moves. Here's an infuriating quote from the article:

"You have to ask yourself, 'is there something out there that could make us better?' The answer was 'no,'" said Magic General Manager Otis Smith. "So I'm not disappointed at all. I like what we have right now."

I understand Otis is worried about chemistry or whatever, but clearly there were big-men available. The Bulls dumped both Ben Wallace and Joe Smith today, receiving Drew Gooden in return. Less conspicuously, the Pistons dumped Primoz Brezec. And yesterday, the SuperSonics dumped Kurt Thomas. Povtak's article mentions the Magic were in the running for Thomas, but Otis was reluctant to part with Carlos Arroyo in the deal. Carlos Arroyo was the sticking point in a deal to acquire Kurt Thomas?! He was our best trade asset; not only was he the best player we had with an expiring contract, but his contract had the highest value ($4 million). A Jameer Nelson/Keyon Dooling tandem at point guard would have worked just fine. Sure, an injury to one of those guys would have sapped our depth, but not as badly as one might think. Hedo Turkoglu can handle the ball and is more than capable of playing point forward. Ugh.

This whole deadline has been incredibly disappointing. Cleveland certainly improved by acquiring Wallace, Smith, and Wally Szczerbiak, and now shuld be considered a more talented team than the Magic. Add to that the fact that Toronto's Chris Bosh and Jose Calderon both consistently crush us, and we suddenly don't look so good.

The trek to a championship just got a whole lot more perilous.

UPDATE: Some Magic fans are calling for Otis Smith to be fired after his decision not to make a move at the deadline. Hrm.

UPDATE #2: John Denton got Otis to comment on not trading the expiring contracts:

"If we would have [traded the expiring contracts], it might have precluded us from doing anything this summer. I like the flexibility. What you are taking back for those expiring contracts has to be something that you really like. And in a lot of cases it just wasn't much better than what we had already."

Um, what? Trading an expiring contract would have let us upgrade the team significantly right now, plus we'd still have the mid-level exception to use on another solid rotation player this summer. Now, we'll only have the mid-level. We had the chance to upgrade two positions; now, we'll only be able to upgrade one. Nice going.

Otis also mentioned that Tony Battie will not return at any point this season, not even for the playoffs. Brian Cook, come on down!

ESPN just reported (via former 76ers GM Billy King) that the Seattle SuperSonics have agreed to trade Kurt Thomas to the San Antonio Spurs. For the Magic fans who wanted Orlando GM Otis Smith to pursue Thomas, myself included, this trade means Smith will have to look elsewhere for big-man help.

I may or may not have cursed loudly when ESPN reported this story. I wanted the Magic to get Thomas. Badly. At this point, I'd almost rather Otis not make a move.

Dammit.

Less than 24 hours until the trading deadline. Will the Magic make a deal? It seems less and less likely as each hour passes, despite the fact that tomorrow might be the Magic's last chance until 2013 to upgrade their roster significantly.

• John Denton got Otis Smith to comment on the recent trade rumors involving Seattle and Sacramento. The whole article is well worth your time, but the high points are:

  • I really think staying the course is a pretty good idea for this team right now. I see no sense in changing your direction just because teams in other cities have decided to do that this season with trades. We like our team;

  • Otis cut a scouting trip short so he could focus on the trading deadline;
  • He's had discussions with Seattle regarding Kurt Thomas and Chris Wilcox;
  • He denied the rumor which stated he spoke with Sacramento about Brad Miller, and added the only player the Kings want from us is Hedo Turkoglu;
  • He questioned why people are clamoring for him to trade for a power forward when he already dealt for Brian Cook earlier this season.

  Those last two points raise some questions. First, if he never spoke to the Kings, how does he know they only want Turk? Second, how can he not realize that Cook is a power forward in name only? Jeez, Otis. We need rebounding, and the Cookie Monster (rebound rate: 9.6, only slightly better than Pat Garrity) certainly doesn't provide that.

• A diligent fan at Denton's Magic board read in a chat with ESPN.com's Chad Ford that the Magic are the leaders in the Kurt Thomas Sweepstakes. Ford says the holdup in the deal is Seattle wanting the Magic to include a future first-round pick. As much as I'd love for the Magic to get Kurt Thomas, SuperSonics GM Sam Presti is insane if he thinks a 35-year-old forward/center is worth a package of expiring contracts and a first-round pick. Otis Smith needs to look elsewhere for big-man help if Seattle continues to insist on a first-round pick...
• ...although, given our history of questionable draft picks (Ryan Humphrey?! Steven Hunter?! JERYL SASSER?!), maybe losing one wouldn't be so bad.
• 82games has a list of sortable "clutch" stats, where "clutch" is defined as "4th quarter or overtime, less than 5 minutes left, neither team ahead by more than 5 points." Unsurprisingly, our crunch-time leaders are:
  • Points - Hedo Turkoglu
  • Rebounds - Dwight Howard
  • Assists - Carlos Arroyo
  • Steals - Keith Bogans
  • Blocks - Dwight Howard
• Brian Schmitz says the Magic have the Southeast Division wrapped-up. Not to be outdone, Brendan Sonnone of Believing in Magic thinks we still have a shot at winning the East. He writes, "Basically, there is no one in the East that can be considered better than Orlando, because the Magic have gone toe to toe with 'the best.'" Surely going 4-3 against the two teams ranked ahead of us in the standings is good, but it doesn't warrant saying we're "the best."
  • For what it's worth, here's a week-by-week graphical representation of the Southeast Division so far this season. We've had the lead basically from the get-go, and Washington's recent slide has strengthened it. Kinda strange that, in spite of our recent strong play, our win percentage to begin the week was near a season-low. Strange and disconcerting.

Trade news as it happens. Don't forget to comment on tonight's Magic/Raptors game in the open thread. If the Magic make a huge trade and you want to break the story here at 3QC, you can always discuss it in the diaries.

The 2008 NBA trading deadline is Thursday, February 21st, at 3 PM EST. 3QC is keeping tabs on the Magic's involvement.

• Gary Washburn of the Seattle Post-Intelligencer joined the Magic/SuperSonics trade rumor discussion extravaganza by writing this piece, entitled "Thomas' Future Uncertain Now," in which he writes, "And at All-Star Weekend in New Orleans, there appeared to be interest in [Kurt] Thomas by a few teams, including the Orlando Magic, which is in need of a power forward."

  Washburn mentions Carlos Arroyo, Keyon Dooling, and Pat Garrity, saying a combination of two of those three players could be used to pry Thomas from Seattle. (Hat-tip: poster TheFalcon at MagicMadness)

  My original Magic/SuperSonics proposal involved Arroyo, James Augustine, Keith Bogans, and J.J. Redick for Thomas and Delonte West. I'd like to revise that trade: Arroyo, Augustine, and Bogans for Thomas. It doesn't appear as though Smith wants to trade Redick, and there's no real reason for us to want West when we already have one undersized combo-guard, Keyon Dooling.

• Meanwhile, Will Brinson at FanHouse discusses a Thomas-to-the-Magic swap as part of FanHouse's Trade Machinations series. He concludes:

  Will it happen? Yes. Yes it will. The only hold up here -- I would imagine -- is whether the Sonics and Magic want to consider anything that might involve either J.J. Redick or Chris Wilcox. Well, that and the full compensation for the swap: draft picks, etc.

• Brian Schmitz cautions the Magic not to include Dooling in any trade before the deadline... unless it yields Udonis Haslem. I agree with Schmitz for the most part. Keyon has indeed been our best, most consistent bench scorer. We need him more than we need Arroyo, who is actually fairly similar to Jameer Nelson. If we can only re-sign one guard with an expiring contract this summer -- Arroyo, Keith Bogans (if he opts-out), Dooling, and Maurice Evans are the players whose contracts will be up for renewal -- Dooling has to be the pick. He may not run the offense well, but he gets to the basket and converts. I'd hate to see him go, even in a deal for Haslem.
  • For what it's worth, Heat scribe Ira Winderman thinks Haslem would be a great fit in Orlando, "a utilitarian power forward to handle the dirty work." He doesn't suggest any potential deals, however.
• Interesting discussion thread over at John Denton's forum, in which readers debate the merits of rooting against the Magic tonight and tomorrow night in hopes that successive losses to Detroit and Toronto would force Otis Smith to make a trade. I'm opposed to rooting for my team to fail for any reason, but especially when there's no guarantee of a reward. For instance, when a cellar-dwelling team tanks its season, there's a tangible increase in the odds of it winning the draft lottery, and thus improving its fortunes. In this situation, it's not a given that back-to-back losses before the trading deadline will make Otis get on the phone and make a deal.
• UPDATE: From this diary entry I posted at Sactown Royalty:

  Poster "BriceC0815" at John Denton's Magic board posted a link to this page at another board (PG-13 for language), which details some Magic/Kings trade rumors.

  • Brad Miller and Francisco Garcia for Carlos Arroyo, Keith Bogans, and Pat Garrity. (Trade Machine)
  • Kenny Thomas and Garcia for Arroyo, Bogans, and Garrity. (Trade Machine)

  Very interesting, but I don't see why Sacramento would make the Miller deal. Sure, it'd free-up some salary, but I doubt [Kings GM] Geoff Petrie would make any trade in which he gives up the two best players in it. The Thomas deal makes more sense for Sacramento, but even Otis Smith has to realize that Kenny Thomas is no-good...

  ...right?

  [....]

  • UPDATED AGAIN: John Denton, as usual, is on the case. He checked with Otis on the validity of the rumor, and Otis told him there was no chance the Magic would take on Miller and his large salary. Denton added that his sources within the Magic organization indicated Orlando will not make a trade with Miami anytime soon.

Speaking of trades: the Jason Kidd-to-the-Mavericks deal is done, and Mavs Moneyball has this indispensable timeline of events leading up to its completion. Kudos to Wes for keeping tabs on the situation.

• John Denton of Florida Today spoke to Otis Smith over the weekend. Here's some of what Otis said:

  If I can find a bigger body who can play, well then great. But it has to make sense for us because I'm not doing a deal just because some other teams are dealing.

  Denton believes the Seattle SuperSonics have made Kurt Thomas and Chris Wilcox available, but that Smith hasn't been able to put together an attractive enough package for them. My belief? Otis will make a deal before the deadline, even if it's a minor one. Carlos Arroyo will probably be the bait.

• Thanks to TexSUN for posting NBA dunk contest highlights in the diaries.
• Regarding the Superman dunk: I didn't think it was that great. The costume and pageantry really sold it; the dunk itself wasn't impressive. Hell, of the four dunks Dwight did, it ranked third. The tap dunk and behind-the-backboard windmill were more difficult.
  • The Superman nickname is going to haunt Dwight and the Magic for a while, especially when the green-clad Celtics do a number on us in the playoffs. Prepare for Kryptonite-themed headlines...
• Division Rival Watch: The Hawks obtained Mike Bibby from the Kings over the weekend. Bibby is only slightly better-than-average, but he basically assures the Hawks a playoff spot. Atlanta is a possible first-round opponent for Orlando, so we need to keep an eye out on how they fare the rest of the season.
  • Bibby, Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Al Horford... that's a pretty good team.
• MagicManEvan started his own Magic blog over the weekend. It's called Bold 'n' Blue. Check it out.
• UPDATE: Forgot to mention this note in the first update: Marcin Gortat turned 24 years old on Sunday. Happy belated birthday, Marcin! Here's hoping you see some playing time before your 25th birthday.

We've got the Pistons tomorrow night. See you in the preview thread later.

Dwight Howard hauls in a rebound as Marcus Camby looks on in the Orlando Magic's 109-98 victory over the Denver Nuggets on Monday night. Howard regained the league's lead in rebounds per game with his 24-rebound performance.
Photo by Fernando Medina, NBAE/Getty Images

Okay, I'm taking my All-Star break early. Enjoy these other takes on last night's 109-98 Magic win over the Nuggets, as well as a few other odds-and-ends. See you on the other side of Sunday.

• Basketbawful included Maurice Evans in his Worst of the Night feature:

  Maurice Evans: If there's a wink link in the Magic's daisy chain, it's their backcourt. And that weakness was on display last night, as Evans scored 2 points on 1-for-8 shooting. You know, starting 2-guards are supposed to score. That's what they do. But Evans is averaging 7.6 PPG. And it's not like he's much of a playmaker, either (1.1. APG).

  And yet I still think the Magic would be wise to re-sign "Mogans" to a short-term deal this summer. Despite last night's egg, he's played well as a starter overall, and his defense is still above-average.

• Basketbawful, writing this time at Deadspin, has the following to say about Dwight Howard's monster performance. Superbad references abound:

  Okay, calm down. Calm down, she likes you. She wants to [perform fellatio]. That's a good thing. It's the best. I'm guessing a lot of people will want to [perform fellatio on Dwight Howard] after he sunk the Denver Nuggets' battleship with 23 points and 24 rebounds, and that includes his coach, Stan Van Gundy, who called Howard out for a lack of effort after the Magic lost to Cleveland on Monday. During the postgame press conference, Van Gundy said, "We've seen games like this out of him before. It's not like Stan Van Gundy's a motivational genius and got Dwight to play." Hm. Maybe, maybe not. But Matt McHale wonders why Van Gundy speaks in the third person. Matt McHale thinks that's weird, but then, what does Matt McHale know? (I'll tell you: He knows that the Magic won 109-98.)

• Brian Schmitz says in his game recap Dwight's teammates want him to wear a Superman cape in the dunk contest this weekend.
• Lost in the commotion over Dwight's stellar night are the great second-half performances of Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu. Sweet Lew had arguably his best game in Magic white-and-blue, scoring 14 of his 25 points in the decisive third-quarter; he also added 7 rebounds. Turk, meanwhile, recovered from foul trouble to score 12 points in the fourth to put the Nuggets away for good.
• Also don't forget to note Jameer Nelson's poor game: 6-of-15 shooting for 13 points. Yuck. Still, can I legitimately complain when we managed to beat one of the league's better teams despite our starting backcourt going 7-of-23 for 15 points?
• After last week's loss to the Lakers, I wrote that Pau Gasol got away with some flops. Hardwood Paroxysm has video evidence that Gasol is, indeed, a flopper.
• More from Schmitz, who wonders if Carlos Arroyo and J.J. Redick are on the trading block. I don't think Redick will have to be included in every possible trade scenario, but he almost certainly will have to go if the other team is willing to take on Pat Garrity.
• Kurt Thomas, a potential Magic trade target, figures to see his playing time decline in Seattle during the second half of the season, as the Sonics want to play the kids a little more. From the Seattle Times (via SuperSonicSoul):

  Coach P.J. Carlesimo intends to use the second half of the season to evaluate players such as C Robert Swift, C Johan Petro, G Luke Ridnour, swingman Delonte West and Gelebale at the expense of others, including starters.

  Might be time to make that phone call, Otis.

Enjoy your weekend, the All-Star festivities, and Valentine's Day. For those of you who are interested in the Nets potentially trading Jason Kidd to Dallas, check out Mavs Moneyball. Wes Cox was not too happy with the deal when it was announced.