Fran Vazquez, the Spanish power forward whom we drafted 11th overall in 2005, only to stare in disbelief when he announced he was not ready for the NBA, has decided he's ready to make the jump. From the Orlando Sentinel:

The Magic say that former lottery pick Fran Vazquez of Spain wants to play for the team next season, but the roadblock is the $7-million buy-out in Vazquez' contract with European powerhouse FC Barcelona. His deal doesn't expire until after the 2008-09 season. "The kid wants to come over and play for us," Magic General Manager Otis Smith told the Sentinel on Wednesday after shootaround before the club faced the Detorit Pistons in Game 3. "But . . .it's the buy-out. It's pretty substantial."

Smith indicated that Vazquez could try to reach a settlement with the club. NBA teams can only contribute a maximum of $500,000 toward a buy-out.

So, given our lack of depth at power forward -- remember that Tony Battie and Brian Cook are the only fours we have with guaranteed contracts for next season -- should we consider helping Fran with his buyout and letting him join the team? I'm not convinced. By all recent accounts, he's a horrible player. From Ian Whittell of ESPN.com (January 2008):

"He is a real enigma," says one European-based NBA scout. "You never know what you are going to get with him. I saw him in one Euroleague game this season score 10 points in the first half, all on dunks. If you did not know who he was, you would have been blown away by him.

"Then, the next time you see him, he might play five minutes and not score a point. The bottom line is, I don't think he's a real smart player."

[....]

In the 11-game Euroleague season, he is averaging 5.5 points and 1.6 rebounds in 11 minutes, modest numbers given how dominant Barcelona (8-3) has been in many games.

More worryingly, in the domestic Spanish ACB League, Vazquez averages 5.2 points and 1.8 boards in 14 minutes. In Sunday's surprise 95-82 defeat at lowly Murcia, he had no points and one rebound in 5 minutes.

I went on-the-record in January as saying, "Let him sit at the end of Barcelona's bench. I don't care about him anymore. Can we move on, please?" and I haven't wavered from that opinion. Let Battie and Cook man the four-spot, or see about acquiring a four via free agency. We can probably get a proven NBA role-player, one more effective than Battie, anyway, and not have to worry about Vazquez's learning curve.

But what do you think? Is Vazquez worth taking a flyer on? Or should we look elsewhere?

John Hollinger used defensive stats and firsthand observation to find out which players are the best defenders in the NBA. The results are in. He has his All-Defense First, Second, and Third teams up at ESPN.com. Two Magic players made the cut. Keyon Dooling and Dwight Howard, come on down!

Hollinger on Keyon:

I was skittish about putting somebody who played so little so high up the list, but he's an active defender with good size, plus he can guard two positions and willingly pressures the ball. More importantly, his numbers pretty much leap off the page in terms of how much better the Magic defend with him on the court.

Indeed, the Magic are fantastic defensively when Dooling is on the court, holding offenses to 104.4 points per 100 possessions. To put that in perspective, only three teams have better defenses over the whole season: Boston (100.0), Houston (103.0), and San Antonio (103.8). (Sources: 82games' page for Keyon Dooling and KnickerBlogger's stat page)

Hollinger on Dwight:

To me, the two more pertinent numbers are that opposing centers had a 12.9 PER against him and that Orlando is seventh in defensive efficiency with Howard as the only truly strong defender in the starting lineup.

The average PER is 15. According to Hollinger's stat page, then, Jermaine O'Neal is the "averagest" center in the NBA, currently posting a PER of 15.02. The center with the closest PER to what Dwight allows is DeSagana Diop, who, as Hollinger notes, is "so poor offensively that he hardly plays."

Further illustrating Howard's great defense is this statistic, which Magic fans and broadcasters repeat ad nausem: the Magic are 26-3 this season in games in which Dwight blocks three shots or more.

If we're able to re-sign Keyon this summer, and if Tony Battie returns completely healthy, we should be a top-five defense next season. And if our offense clicks the way it has this season, we'll be pretty damn hard to beat.

Dwight Howard must not like power forwards.

Less than a year after Tony Battie's season ended when his rotator cuff tore while trying to defend Howard, Brian Cook is also sidelined no thanks to Dwight. Both Brian Schmitz and John Denton report that a bone in Cook's right hand broke when Dwight Howard hit it during this morning's practice.

We need Cook and his three-point shooting to space the floor for the second unit -- the Magic are 10-1 when Cook hits two or more triples -- so losing him for the season weakens our already sub-par bench. This injury means more minutes for Pat Garrity and his 2.1 PER, which does not bode well for us. It also means we have extra incentive to bring Battie back before the season ends, as the team can't depend on youngsters James Augustine and Marcin Gortat in the playoffs.

It's not time to panic just yet, but it can't be good when a team worries it might not succeed without Brian Cook and his 5 points per game.

On the bright side, Jameer Nelson is expected to start tomorrow against New Orleans. Nice to know he's doing better.

One year ago today, some chump with a laptop and entirely too much time on his hands I started a website dedicated to the past, present, and future of the Orlando Magic. Yes indeed, Third Quarter Collapse is now one year old! To celebrate that occasion, I've compiled links -- in bullet form, naturally -- to my favorite posts from the old site. Enjoy the archives. Happy birthday to us. And to Hedo Turkoglu, while we're at it. Turk turns 29 today. Bold 'N' Blue has the birthday thread.

• Introduction - The first-ever 3QC post!
• In Defense of Brian Hill - Ugh.
• Streaky Like Superman's Cat: Magic 94, Knicks 89 - Not a particularly special post, but I love the title.
• Intelligent Design - Wondering if Dwight Howard can improve between his third and fourth seasons the way Kevin Garnett did.
• There's A Battle Ahead - Making the case that Magic fans need to GET WILD AND CRAZY to increase Orlando's standing as a sports town. I invoke the words of William Shakespeare and Winston Churchill.
• Brave New World - Just a few days before the start of the postseason, I describe the feeling of impending doom I have. The Magic promptly drop four straight games to the Pistons, and I look fairly intelligent. What that post doesn't tell you is I had the Magic playing the Rockets in the Finals.
• My coverage of the Billy Donovan Saga.
• Reverse the Curse: Forgive Shaq and Bring Him Back - Begging the Magic ownership to reach-out to Shaquille O'Neal and offer him a consultant position with the team once he retires. Not quite sure what I was thinking there.
• The Case for Keeping Grant Hill - Arguing the Magic should re-sign Grant Hill. Again, not sure what I was thinking.
• The Orlando Magic Free-Agency Countdown. Boy, am I glad I did this series.
  • Part One: Vince Carter
  • Part Two: Mo Williams
  • Part Three: Chauncey Billups
  • Part Four: Gerald Wallace
  • Part Five: Rashard Lewis - I had this one right -- does anyone seriously believe we'd be better off with one of the other guys? -- but I was way off-base when I said Lewis "rebounds well." Whoops.
• WKMG: Rashard Lewis Will Sign with Orlando for 5 years, $75 million - If only that dollar amount were accurate.
• ESPN: Grant Hill to Sign with Phoenix Suns - "Grant Hill may be a great basketball player, but if NBA-ers were rated in Consumer Reports, Hill would certainly not be a 'Best Buy'." That's as charitably as I could put it.
• Which Free-Agent Big-Men Should the Magic Pursue? - I begin my love/hate relationship with coding HTML tables.
• End of an Era, Such as it Was: Darko Milicic, Orlando Magic Part Ways - I was really proud of this piece when I wrote it, but it embarrasses me now. But go ahead. The picture at the end is worth the click-through.
• The Future Is Now: Rashard Lewis Formally Introduced at Press Conference - I'm more interested in the fact that I thought Keith Bogans would be behind J.J. Redick on the depth chart. Bogans went on to start the first 35 games at shooting guard for us. Whoops.
• In DeFense of DeVos/In Support of a New Downtown - Hard to believe that just last summer we were worried about the Magic leaving in a few years if they couldn't get that arena built...
• Success! Venues Plan Passes by a 5-2 vote... especially since the arena funding got approved 3 days after I wrote that first post.
• Are the Magic a Playoff Team? Discussion From Around the Web - Also hard to believe that many observers picked Orlando to finish out of the playoff picture, even in the Eastern Conference. To be fair to them, no one could have predicted the Bulls would suck this badly, nor could anyone have predicted that Hedo Turkoglu would have an All-Star season. But still, not even in the top 8 in the East? It was as absurd then as it is now.
• Don't Free Keyon - When the Keyon Dooling-for-Reggie Evans rumors circulated over the summer, I was seemingly the only guy who didn't want the Magic to make the deal. I have no regrets. I LOVE KEYON DOOLING AND THERE'S NOTHING YOU CAN SAY OR DO TO CHANGE MY MIND! THAT'S MY PURSE!
• Carlos Arroyo Shows Masonry Skills as Mexico Upsets Puerto Rico - "If the Magic want to have their new arena built on-schedule, they might consider asking Carlos Arroyo to lend a hand. His brick-laying skills might come in handy." I'm so proud.
• Who's Under Contract: A Tentative 2007/2008 Orlando Magic Roster - Does anyone think I need to work a post like this into the sidebar somewhere? An at-a-glance summary of the Magic's players and their contracts? Let me know.
• The Southeast Division Outlook, Part Three: Miami Heat - "[T]he Heat's grip on the Southeast loosened considerably this summer, making the possibility of Orlando or Washington seizing it much more likely." Yeah, I'll say.
• Tell Harris Rosen Where He Can Stick It - I sincerely hope Harris Rosen read this post. Actually, I hope he's reading this one. Hey, Harris: thanks for failing at your bid to steal an arena from Orlando citizens so you can line your pockets. We really appreciate it, scumbag.
• The Southeast Division Outlook, Part Four: Orlando Magic - "I'm not saying that the Magic are going to win 57 games, but I am saying is that they will improve." 57 games isn't out of the question, actually. The Magic will reach that total if they go 12-1 the rest of the way.
• Summer of 2007: An Orlando Magic Photo Album - I was really scraping for content at this point, as I knew the SB Nation relaunch was just around the corner. Still, I'm happy with this post; pictures are fun!
• Orlando Sentinel: Surgery a Possibility for Tony Battie - The last news-related post at the original 3QC. Sucks that it's such a bummer.
• I've Moved to ThirdQuarterCollapse.com - "Thanks for everything." Thanks, indeed. Here come the waterworks...

When I started 3QC last year, I had no idea it'd ever get this "big." Okay, it's not BlogABull or TrueHoop or anything, but it went from a nondescript Blogspot site averaging 13 hits a week to a fairly reputable SB Nation site averaging 13 hits an hour (give or take). So I'd like to thank the SB Nation crew for letting me come aboard as well as the readers who brought this site to their attention in the first place. I really appreciate the support I've received.

Thanks for everything. I'll be here as long as you guys will have me.

And, uh, for what it's worth: the Magic are 54-29 (.651) since I launched the original 3QC. Just saying.

Photographic documentation of the only time Stan Van Gundy ever wore a tie as coach of the Orlando Magic. This weekend, John Denton got Van Gundy to discuss his preference for turtlenecks.
File photo by Fernando Medina, NBAE/Getty Images

• There's plenty to love in this grab-bag post John Denton made on Saturday, not the least of which is the list of goals Stan Van Gundy outlined for his team, which I've since enumerated in the right sidebar. Denton also got Van Gundy to talk about his aversion to wearing ties:

  "I wore one the first game and (assistant coach) Brendan (Malone) didn't and I thought it looked so much more comfortable," Van Gundy said. "Now all the coaches wear ties and try to make me look bad. I'm just a lot more comfortable (without the tie). I'm really not going to look good in anything because my shirt is going to be rumpled and my shirttail will be coming out by the end of the game."

  Way back in December, Brian Schmitz put "a tie for Coach Stan Van Gundy" at the top of his Magic Christmas Wish List.

• David Berri of Wages of Wins examines Rashard Lewis' season and whether or not his production has justified the hefty contract he signed last July. Unsurprisingly, the conclusion is "no," and the reason is rebounding:

  When we turn to possessions, though, we see a problem.  Despite the move to power forward, Lewis is getting fewer rebounds.  Per 48 minutes an average power forward will grab 11.4 rebounds.  Lewis is only getting 6.5 or nearly five boards off the pace.

  Certainly playing beside the top rebounder in the game - Dwight Howard - is going to have some impact on the numbers Lewis gets. In other words, diminishing returns (a story told in The Wages of Wins) may be an issue here. One should note, though, that Howard’s numbers do not seem to be impacting Hedo Turkoglu (whose rebounding is up this season).

  Berri thinks Lewis would be much better off at small forward, his natural position. HT: Ball Don't Lie

• Tony Battie, who hasn't played all season because of rotator-cuff surgery, may return for the playoffs, Schmitz reports in his blog. The team doctors aren't too keen on Battie returning, but they've left the final decision up to Battie. Schmitz also raises an interesting question: what happens next season, when Battie is healthy? Do the Magic move him back into the starting lineup, shift Rashard Lewis to his natural small forward position (as Berri suggests above), and bump Hedo Turkoglu to the bench? Indeed, it'll be interesting to see how Stan Van Gundy handles the big-man rotation. With Dwight Howard, Brian Cook, Battie, and Adonal Foyle (if the team picks up his option), the Magic will have a relative embarrassment of riches at the four and five positions.
• Whit Watson, whose blog posts are always a treat, plays a little "What If...?" game by asking, "What if Nick Anderson had made his free throws?" NBA Championships are in the forecast. Despite those four missed free throws, Nick is one of my all-time favorite Magic players, and it's an absolute shame that the Magic organization hasn't honored him by retiring his no. 25.

Don't forget the game thread for tonight's Magic/Cavaliers tilt.

The Magic's game against the Clippers tips off in 20 minutes or so, so I'm right up against the deadline here. Let's get to it:

• The Magic's new party line? They need to get tougher.
  • John Denton
  • Tim Povtak

  The Magic have needed an enforcer-type guy for years. We don't need a thug like Bruce Bowen, but we do need someone who isn't afraid to dish out a little extra punishment when opponents try to attack the basket. Unfortunately, we've been reluctant in the past to acquire guys with less-than-stellar reputations. Hopefully, Otis Smith is not being disingenuous when he says, "[W]e've got to have a nasty about us."

• Occurred as I was typing this post: J.J. Redick is back with the Magic, says John Denton. Redick left the team to be with his brother David, who underwent surgery on his spine on Monday.
• Hal Boedeker, the Orlando Sentinel's TV critic, tells us that Hedo Turkoglu will be featured on NBA Access this Saturday at 1 PM (ABC). It's great to see that Hedo is getting the national media attention he deserves.
• This story is a few days old, but Mike Bianchi had a chat with John Weisbrod, the former Magic GM not-so-affectionately referred to as "The Hockey Guy." It's a fascinating read, so check it out before the Sentinel archives it. Remember that Weisbrod drafted Dwight Howard, traded for Tony Battie, signed Hedo Turkoglu, and traded for the rights to Jameer Nelson during his tenure. Indeed, Weisbrod, not Otis Smith, is directly responsible for acquiring four of the Magic's five starters from last season. Of course, he also re-hired Brian Hill, traded Tracy McGrady for Steve Francis, and traded Cuttino Mobley for Doug Christie. But let's not forget the good things Weisbrod did for us.
• Also a few days old: the Houston Rockets waived swingman Gerald Green on Saturday. Some Magic fans covet Green and think the Magic should make room for him on their roster; check out the discussion at Denton's board. It's not happening, guys. First, since the Rockets waived him after the March 1st deadline, he'd be ineligible for our playoff roster. Cutting one of our guys, even Pat Garrity, leaves us with only fourteen eligible players on a twelve-man active roster. It doesn't make sense to cut a guy who can play for another guy who can't. If the Magic are indeed desperate for a freakishly athletic player -- and they'd have to be desperate to sign Green, considering that three teams have given up on him already -- they can invite him to training camp this summer.
• Many thanks to adamosthegreek at MagicMadness for posting this link to the NBA Dance Team Bracket. I guess the League needs something to put up against March Madness. The Magic's dancers are matched-up against the Cavaliers' right now. Head on over there to vote the Magic Dancers to victory.
• Wow. That was corny. I'll quit while I'm only a bit behind.

It just wouldn't be Latin Night at the Amway Arena if Carlos Arroyo weren't launching off-balance jumpers. Despite what this photo may indicate, Arroyo played under control, and the Magic walloped the Knicks, 118-92.
Photo by Fernando Medina, NBAE/Getty Images

Yes, it was as big a laugher as the boxscore indicates it was, and I'm not sure there's much more you need to know. The Knicks -- Jamal Crawford in particular -- came out en fuego, but cooled off late in the first half. Once Eddy Curry went to the bench with his third foul, we took over, as the Knicks had no one who could contain Dwight Howard. Zach Randolph, the Knicks' other big-man, missed the game with a sore foot, forcing coach Isiah Thomas to use 6'8" David lee and 6'6" Malik Rose on the Magic's star center. From that point, we went on a 23-7 run to close out the first half, and the Knicks never seriously contested for the rest of the game.

Because of injuries to Jameer Nelson and Keyon Dooling (John Denton has the scoop), center James Augustine and forward Marcin Gortat were available tonight. And, no the delight of many Magic fans, they got to play, as did Pat Garrity and J.J. Redick. Gortat made his NBA debut, scoring the first basket of his NBA career on a pretty reverse layup. You can watch the video of the play, graciously captured by NCYMagicFan, by clicking here. Tony Battie's celebratory dance on the Magic bench is priceless.

We're once again 15 games over .500 and, more importantly, we took care of business on our home floor. We also saw great performances by everyone, but there were a few exceptional ones that I should mention: Dwight Howard had 26 points and 20 rebounds for his seventh 20/20 game of the season; Hedo Turkoglu finished just two rebounds shy of a triple-double; and Carlos Arroyo dished 8 assists and only one turnover in his first start since February 6th.

One final note: the Dwight Howard/Rashard Lewis/Hedo Turkoglu trio has started in 60 of the Magic's 61 games this season. Tonight's game was just the second time each of those players scored more than 20 points in a single game. The first time, probably not coincidentally, also came against the Knicks.

Obviously, we can't let this huge win get to our heads. We have Toronto at home on Tuesday, and they're going to be tough to beat. UPDATE: Doug Smith of the Toronto Star reports that the Raptors will likely be without Chris Bosh for Tuesday's game. I'm nonplussed. Toronto's point guard tandem of Jose Calderon and T.J. Ford is good enough to beat us by itself.

Tim Povtak has the scoop on the Magic's trade-deadline "activity," which yielded no roster moves. Here's an infuriating quote from the article:

"You have to ask yourself, 'is there something out there that could make us better?' The answer was 'no,'" said Magic General Manager Otis Smith. "So I'm not disappointed at all. I like what we have right now."

I understand Otis is worried about chemistry or whatever, but clearly there were big-men available. The Bulls dumped both Ben Wallace and Joe Smith today, receiving Drew Gooden in return. Less conspicuously, the Pistons dumped Primoz Brezec. And yesterday, the SuperSonics dumped Kurt Thomas. Povtak's article mentions the Magic were in the running for Thomas, but Otis was reluctant to part with Carlos Arroyo in the deal. Carlos Arroyo was the sticking point in a deal to acquire Kurt Thomas?! He was our best trade asset; not only was he the best player we had with an expiring contract, but his contract had the highest value ($4 million). A Jameer Nelson/Keyon Dooling tandem at point guard would have worked just fine. Sure, an injury to one of those guys would have sapped our depth, but not as badly as one might think. Hedo Turkoglu can handle the ball and is more than capable of playing point forward. Ugh.

This whole deadline has been incredibly disappointing. Cleveland certainly improved by acquiring Wallace, Smith, and Wally Szczerbiak, and now shuld be considered a more talented team than the Magic. Add to that the fact that Toronto's Chris Bosh and Jose Calderon both consistently crush us, and we suddenly don't look so good.

The trek to a championship just got a whole lot more perilous.

UPDATE: Some Magic fans are calling for Otis Smith to be fired after his decision not to make a move at the deadline. Hrm.

UPDATE #2: John Denton got Otis to comment on not trading the expiring contracts:

"If we would have [traded the expiring contracts], it might have precluded us from doing anything this summer. I like the flexibility. What you are taking back for those expiring contracts has to be something that you really like. And in a lot of cases it just wasn't much better than what we had already."

Um, what? Trading an expiring contract would have let us upgrade the team significantly right now, plus we'd still have the mid-level exception to use on another solid rotation player this summer. Now, we'll only have the mid-level. We had the chance to upgrade two positions; now, we'll only be able to upgrade one. Nice going.

Otis also mentioned that Tony Battie will not return at any point this season, not even for the playoffs. Brian Cook, come on down!

The Magic's offense has improved each month this season. Unfortunately, their defense has declined each month. In February, the Magic have surrendered an eye-poppingly awful 118.7 points per 100 possessions to their opponents. If it keeps up, the team surely won't make it very far in the playoffs. Until further notice, this team should be known as the Orlano Magic. No "d."

It may appear as though those numbers are skewed by the fact that the Magic have faced two of the league's top-three most efficient offenses (Dallas and Los Angeles) this month. However, the other four teams they've played -- Philadelphia, Indiana, New Jersey, and Cleveland -- are well below-average.

The graph below shows the Magic's offensive progression (and defensive regression) by month. Clicking the chart -- and indeed any other chart in this post -- will open a larger version in a new browser window or tab, depending on your settings.

What's to blame for this awful defensive showing? I turned to the four factors, presented in Dean Oliver's book Basketball on Paper and summarized in this page at basketball-reference, to see if there were any trends. The first one I examined is effective field goal percentage:

The Magic have consistently outshot their opponents, but note the sharp increase from January to February. Six games should be a good enough sample-size from which to draw, and I doubt teams' hot shooting against the Magic is coincidental. Closing out on shooters and altering their shots at the basket -- I'm looking at you, Dwight Howard -- will send the opponents' eFG% downward.

Forcing turnovers has been a problem for the Magic all season. Despite playing at a much faster pace this season than last season, the Magic have turned the ball over less frequently. Unfortunately, so have their opponents. The Magic have a few good one-on-one defenders, but no one who consistently steals the ball. Rashard Lewis leads the team in steals per game, but that's only because hardly anyone else even tries, not because Lewis is actually a good defender. To his credit, he did an outstanding job on Dirk Nowitzki against Dallas last Monday.

As a team, the Magic are unbalanced on the glass. They rebound well on the defensive end, but not so well on the offensive end. The best move General Manager Otis Smith can make at the trading deadline would be to acquire a strong rebounding power forward. Tony Battie may return for the playoffs, but he's not a great rebounder, and thus not a viable long-term solution. The same could be said for Seattle's Kurt Thomas and Chicago's Joe Smith, for whom the Magic could trade, but they are more likely to make a difference on the defensive glass.

This table is the one that's most telling. As the season's progressed, the Magic have gotten to the foul line less often, while their opponents have gotten there more often. This trend, combined with the overall decline in defensive efficiency as displayed in the first graph in this post, suggests the Magic have simply gotten lazy or have stopped caring. They're settling for more jump shots -- and making them, as evidenced by their effective field goal percentage increase -- which is a sign of a lack of aggression. Meanwhile, their opponents are getting to the basket and to the foul line seemingly at will.

The key phrase in that last paragraph is "at will." Where is the Magic's desire to be great? What happened to it? In November and December, they showed they could dominate on both sides of the ball, even grabbing second-place in the Eastern Conference for a brief while. They finished the 2007 portion of this season at 22-11. Since then, they're a pedestrian 10-10. Which team will show up tonight against Denver and next week after the All-Star break?

Will it be the team that flexed its muscle during the first 33 games of the season and opened eyes throughout the league?

Or will it be the one that has played unenthusiastically for the last 20 games, content with mediocrity?

	vs.
32-20		28-22
Amway Arena
7:00 PM
FSN Florida
Probable starters:
Jameer Nelson	PG	Larry Hughes
Maurice Evans	SG	LeBron James
Hedo Turkoglu	SF	Ira Newble
Rashard Lewis	PF	Drew Gooden
Dwight Howard	C	Z. Ilgauskas

The Cavaliers got trounced last night, 113-83, on their home floor. Already missing Daniel Gibson, Drew Gooden, Sasha Pavlovic, and Anderson Varejao, they lost Damon Jones to a sprained ankle and Zydrunas Ilgauskas to back spasms. They're injury-ravaged, on the second night of a back-to-back, and not that great a team.

I've been ill (as in "physically sick," not as in "cool" or whatever those kids call it these days) all weekend and I'm still recovering. My post output might drop this week. Sorry about that.

The game's at 7, and it's Brian Cook and Maurice Evans autographed photo night at the Amway Arena. Get excited!

...and go Magic.

UPDATE: Happy 32nd birthday to Tony Battie! Too bad he's not healthy to play against his former team...