Brent Beck, a die-hard Pacers fan, really wants Indiana to make a move for J.J. Redick, as he explains in a guest post at Indy Cornrows. Considering the Pacers a) are one of my favorite teams, b) Redick is one of my favorite players, and c) the Magic have no use for him, I heartily endorse the idea of sending Redick to Indy. But, as in any trade proposal, one must consider what the Pacers have to offer the Magic. And there's an obvious answer:

Jeff Foster.

File photo by Tim Strattman, the Associated Press

The Magic need help at power forward and center. Foster, a nine-year veteran with a career PER of 14.4, plays both positions. And unlike Brian Cook, the Magic's presumed backup four next season, Foster bangs around the boards with the best of them. And I really mean "the best": he lead the NBA in Offensive Rebounding Rate (the percentage of available offensive rebounds a player snags while on the floor) in each of the last two seasons. His career ORR, 15.31, is fifth-best in the history of the league and tops among active players, even more highly paid ones like Erick Dampier, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, and Ben Wallace. And, wouldn't you know it, the Magic's biggest weakness in their first season under Stan Van Gundy was their inability to clean up their own misses: although they were nigh-elite on the defensive boards, they were horrendous on the offensive ones, finishing 27th in the league in Offensive Rebounding Rate.

Foster's presence has a tremendous impact on the Pacers' rebounding abilities as a team. Data from 82games.com show that when he's on the floor, they grab 50.9% of available rebounds, a 4.7% improvement from their average when he's off the floor. Don't let the advertising quacks fool you. "Foster" is not "Australian for 'beer,'" but rather "San Antonian for 'Rebound.'"

As always, we must consider finances when discussing potential trades. Foster's $5.70 million salary next season more than double's Redick's ($2.14 million), but the Magic can throw in a player to make the trade work. Whom might they package? Look no further than Brian Cook. At 27, he's nearly four full years younger than Foster, and while he's certainly hit his ceiling, he fits in with Indiana's younger players (average age: 26.7) better than Foster did. Additionally, Cook's specialty, three-point shooting, will come in handy in Indiana. Only the Warriors and the Magic attempted more triples last season than the Pacers did, yet they finished eighth in three-point percentage. As a bonus for Indiana, his style contrasts nicely with Ike Diogu, the so-called "steal" in the trade that sent Stephen Jackson and Al Harrington to the Warriors, who plays more of a low-post game.

And if all those reasons didn't do it for you, maybe this one will. Foster's contract expires at the end of next season, giving the Magic cap room to re-sgn Hedo Turkoglu, who will almost certainly use his opt-out clause to negotiate a contract which would reward him for his exemplary play of late. Or, if Turk decides he would rather not stay with the Magic, or if the Magic decide Turk's asking price is too high, they can try to re-sign Foster.

To me, this trade is a low-risk, high-reward proposition for the Magic. They exchange one young player who doesn't play and a veteran who doesn't fit their needs for a veteran who does fit their needs. Heck, I wouldn't mind throwing a future first-round pick into the deal if it would appease the Pacers.

When the Magic traded Trevor Ariza to the Lakers for Maurice Evans and Cook, ESPN's John Hollinger liked the deal because it was the sort of minor move that above-average teams make to take themselves to the next level. Obtaining Foster would be a similar, seemingly minor move for the Magic, but one that would pay even greater dividends. Every serious contender in the NBA gets contributions from role-players: Detroit has Antonio McDyess; San Antonio has Kurt Thomas; Boston has... well, it has three future Hall-of-Famers, so it doesn't count; and the Lakers have Derek Fisher. If the Magic want to make the most of the primes of their stars, they'd do well to acquire Foster (or another similar role-player) who may be slightly past his.

Hedo Turkoglu covers his nose after taking an elbow from a Detroit player. His Magic lose, 91-86, and were eliminated in the Eastern Conference Semifinals.

Photo by Allen Einstein, NBAE/Getty Images

21 and 3.

Those are the only numbers that matter when discussing this game. The Magic turned the ball over 21 times and forced just three turnovers themselves. Logic indicates that disparity won't get it done on any level of basketball, yet we almost stole one from Detroit tonight.

But in the end, the Pistons prevailed thanks to their clutch free-throw shooting and defense, not necessarily in that order. Looking at their defense -- not just the deflections, steals, and transition baskets, but the whole thing -- it's hard to imagine them losing more than three or four games the rest of the postseason. We actually performed (relatively) above-average in this series, with an offensive rating of 105.9, which slightly exceeds the Pistons' regular-season defensive rating of 104.2. But that's a bit misleading, because the Pistons really turn up the defensive heat when it counts the most. For most of the game, the Pistons play great defense. In crunch-time, they take it to a whole other level. We already saw the Pistons hold the Magic to 25% shooting in the fourth quarter of Game Three. Tonight, the Pistons held the Magic to 0 field goals for the first 8:18 of the final period. I repeat: the Pistons, missing their best player, held a 52-win team with the league's fifth-most efficient offense without a bucket for 8-plus fourth-quarter minutes.

We did plenty of things wrong tonight, but showed some poise at the end. We could have folded after watching the Pistons go on a 17-4 run to start the fourth period, but we didn't, going on a 7-1 run of our own to draw to within 1 point. A Rasheed Wallace miss careened out-of-bounds off a Magic player with 20 seconds to play, giving the Pistons had the ball and, more than likely, the game. The Magic were forced to foul, Rip Hamilton nailed his free throws (note: this is a pun; check the notes after the jump), but we still had a chance, trailing by 3.

On the last Magic possession of Game Four, Hedo Turkoglu took too much time sizing up Detroit's defense, giving his team no chance to get an offensive board if he missed the shot... which he did, as we know. Tonight, he wasted little time: he made up his mind that he would drive to his right around the defense of Tayshaun Prince and dunk the ball, cutting Detroit's lead to 1 and forcing the Pistons to enter a foul-shooting competition.

Prince had other ideas.

Although Turkoglu got the step on Prince, the lanky forward was recovered quickly enough to swoop in and block the dunk cleanly at the rim. Stop what you're doing right now (which is, I would hope, reading this post) and head over to Need4Sheed to look at the video. I'll give you a few seconds to pick your jaw up off the floor and/or wipe the tears from your eyes.

Back? Okay. Good.

After the Magic fouled, Hamilton made two free throws to boost the lead to 5, and Detroit had the game in-hand.

And in a game marred by sloppy play by the Magic, it's fitting that their next possession ended with a turnover. Keith Bogans, firing the ball in from the left sideline, wanted to pass to Turkoglu, who cut toward the baseline under Pistons' basket. Bogans lead him too far and the ball sailed out of bounds. DEE-troit BAS-ket-ball. Hamilton hits two free throws. Bogans comes down the other end and makes a meaningless fingeroll, the Pistons inbound, and the clock expires.

FIN.

But even in this close game in which they turned the ball over on one-quarter of their possessions (?!), the Magic might have been in it, or even won, if they had just made their damn free throws. Instead, they let their playoff inexperience show, and connected on 16 of their 28 free throws. As expected, Dwight Howard "lead" the way in the CLANK department, going 6-of-15 from the stripe. Howard's a notoriously awful foul shooter, but 40% is bad, even for him. Rashard Lewis, a usually accurate free throw shooter, went 4-of-6.

Throughout this season, many Magic fans found themselves lamenting a lack of a "Plan B" for the team to use when its three-pointers weren't falling. Tonight, their gameplan was to get Howard -- who struggled in Game Four, shooting 3-of-12 for 8 points -- involved in the offense early. And the team used this plan to a fault; they drove it into the ground. Several times in the first quarter, Lewis got the ball on the wing and assumed the triple-threat position, yet kept his eyes locked on Howard.

And locked.

And locked.

And rather than pass the ball to somebody else, or dribble, or shoot, or anything, Lewis would throw the ball to Dwight, even though both Lewis' and Howard's defenders had their hands in the passing lanes. The result? Turnovers. As we mentioned.

But it wasn't all bad, I suppose. Jameer Nelson, heavily (and unfairly -- I still can't get over that) criticized for his guarantee of a Magic victory, did his part to aid his team's cause. He scored 14 on 6-of-7 shooting, including 2-of-3 from beyond the arc. And he played solid defense on Rodney Stuckey for most of the night, although Stuckey warmed up as the game progressed. He showed poise, unlike Howard, his co-captain, who always looks flustered when he plays the Pistons. I hope some Pistons fans will at least respect Nelson's effort.

Perhaps surprisingly, this loss doesn't bother me too much. Yes, we played poorly, but it wasn't the sort of lazy/awful brand of basketball that killed us in our December-through-January slump. Yes, our season is over, but for the first time in a long time, we know we'll be back, and better, next season. We're relevant again, and have earned some respect around the league -- not enough, but some, which is more than we had last year.

And, on a more selfish note, the season ending allows me to do stuff I've missed out on over the past several months: spending time with my girlfriend, spending time with my cat, reading for fun, etc. And I can sleep easily knowing that this year was only the beginning of the climb back to elite status in this league.

So, Detroit advances to the Eastern Conference Finals for the sixth straight year. We can only hope to have similar success. Kudos to the Pistons and to their fans.

Two brief game notes after the jump.

Continue reading this post »

The Magic held a 60-48 lead over the Pistons with 9:23 to play in the third quarter of Game Four, and gained possession after referee Joe Crawford whistled Detroit's Antonio McDyess for offensive basket interference. At the 9:11 mark, Maurice Evans hit a three-pointer to give the Magic a 15-point advantage. As the media have well documented, the Pistons went on a 15-0 run to tie the game, and eventually won it with Tayshaun Prince's running hook with 00:08.9 to play in the fourth quarter. But whom should the Magic blame for their miscues? This table sums it up, from the 8:55 mark of the third (when Rodney Stuckey missed a three-pointer for Detroit) to the 2:56 mark of the third (when Richard Hamilton tied the game at 63 with a fast-break dunk):

Likewise, whom should the Pistons praise for their resurgence? Again, we have a table:

Yahoo!'s Kelly Dwyer and 3QC reader Eyriq both pointed out the appropriateness of this website's name after the Magic lost thanks to a blown third-quarter lead. I've already explained that I started the original site at Blogspot after a similar loss to the Sacramento Kings during the 2006/2007 season. But that's not when I came up with the site's name. In fact, I didn't come up with it at all.

My mom did.

Flashback to 2006. Somehow or another, my dad won free tickets to a Magic game. We went to claim them, hoping to choose the Lakers' visit to Orlando as our prize. As it turns out, we didn't have the ability to choose which game we'd attend, and the Magic representative gave us two tickets to see the Milwaukee Bucks on January 31st. The Magic won big, 98-73, and held a 56-29 lead at halftime, but almost gave the game back in the third quarter after being outscored, 24-13. "Just another third-quarter collapse by the Magic," Mom said later, describing the game. The phrase stuck with me, and I kept it in mind when I started the old site.

And that was that.

Some notes and references after the jump.

Continue reading this post »

Hedo Turkoglu rubs Jameer Nelson's head during a break in the action in Saturday evening's Orlando Magic/Detroit Pistons game. Detroit won, 90-89, to take a commanding 3-1 series lead.

Photo by Doug Benc, Getty Images

This game was ours for the taking, but we didn't take it. We had an 11-point halftime lead and bumped it up to 15 with a Maurice Evans three-pointer. All we had to do was to get two more stops and two more baskets. That's it. We could have gone up by 19 points and the Pistons would surely have packed it in. Instead, they went on a backbreaking 15-0 run, capped off by a fast-break dunk by Richard Hamilton.

And in the end, we only needed one basket to win. Tayshaun Prince hit a floater in the lane (thanks to an Antonio McDyess offensive rebound) to put the Pistons ahead, 90-89. Hedo Turkoglu, who scored 13 of his 20 points in the period, missed a driving layup over Prince at the buzzer to end the game and, essentially, the series. But it should not have come to that. We wasted too many opportunities to blame the loss squarely on Hedo's missed layup. Take a look at this laundry list of miscues:

• Dwight Howard's missed dunk (2:28, first quarter). This dunk wasn't heavily contested. Dwight reached back with one hand and simply threw it too hard into the back iron.
• Keyon Dooling's bad pass (11:30, second quarter). The scorer credited Keyon with the turnover, but this one was Dwight's fault. After screening for Keyon on the right baseline, Howard rolled to the basket and was wide-open. Keyon delivered a crisp bounce pass, but Howard bobbled it, and Jason Maxiell recovered for Detroit.
• Jameer Nelson's missed free throws (take your pick). Nelson, shooting 83.9% from the stripe this postseason, went just 2-of-6 from the line tonight. Sure, other guys missed free throws -- Rashard Lewis was 1-of-2 and Hedo was 4-of-5 -- but Nelson's misses simply stand out more. His miss with 44 seconds remaining kept the score 89-88, our favor. If he had made it, Tayshaun Prince's floater with 8.9 left in the game would have tied the score, not given the Pistons the lead.

Obviously, I'm disappointed we lost, but we still got some great efforts:

• Hedo was huge in the fourth quarter, as I mentioned.
• Maurice Evans played his tail off and scored 15 points.
• Keith Bogans had 6 points and 7 boards (?!) off the bench, and he showed a new dimension in his game: the driving layup. Both of his field goals were of that variety, and they were both "and-one" plays. A shaky foul shooter, Bogans converted on both his tries.
• In just 3 minutes, Marcin Gortat showed flashes of brilliance, scoring on a beautiful hook from the left baseline (over Rasheed Wallace, no less) and on a layup. The final total for Marcin: 4 points, 1 rebound, and 1 block in just 3 minutes.

I say "just" 3 minutes for Marcin because he should have been on the floor longer. Dwight Howard had arguably his worst offensive performance as a professional, with 8 points on 3-of-12 shooting. He didn't make any shots after the first quarter. The Pistons took him out of the game by muscling him as he shot, and he did not get the benefit of the whistle. Perhaps intimidated, by their defense, he also rushed a few shots, including one put-back (3:08, second quarter) that the threw entirely too hard off the glass; all he needed to do was grab the rebound, come down with it, gather himself, and go up for the jam. With more rest -- he played the entire second half! -- he might have been able to tip-in Hedo's missed layup at the final buzzer. He might have been able to box-out McDyess (who finished with 14 rebounds) more effectively. And something tells me that Gortat would have been able to hold his own in Dwight's absence. But we'll never know for sure.

After Game Three, Yahoo!'s Kelly Dwyer wrote that we let the Pistons creep back into the game because "Jameer Nelson really enjoys shooting 20-foot jumpers." It's true. Nelson tends to settle for the jump-shot too frequently, and especially at the ends of quarters. He ended the Magic's last three first-quarter possessions on jump-shots, making the first and missing the next two. He finished with 6 assists and just 1 turnover, which is fantastic, but the 6-of-14 shooting isn't. And we covered the free-throw shooting.

That's a wrap, both for this recap and for this series. Game Five is Tuesday night in Detroit, and I expect the Pistons to close it out in big fashion on their home floor. They've earned it. Of course, I won't complain if the Magic steal one there... but I wouldn't bank on it.

Note: I wrote this post before last night's Game Two between the Magic and the Pistons.

Last week, Ellen of the Cavaliers blog And One posted this thoughtful rundown of mental toughness in sports using a 2007 article from The Sports Psychologist as a backdrop. As the Magic face the Detroit Pistons, a team famous for playing mind games with its opponents, in these playoffs, it seems pertinent to discuss the Pistons' mental advantage: other than skill, what sets them apart from the Magic?

The Sports Psychologist article which Ellen referenced breaks-up mental toughness into this framework. Refer to the scans at And One for the full explanation of each sub-category:

1. Attitude/Mindset
   • Belief
   • Focus
2. Training
   • Using long-term goals as the source of motivation
   • Controlling the environment
   • Pushing yourself to the limit
3. Competition
   • Handling pressure
   • Belief
   • Regulating performance
   • Staying focused
   • Awareness and control of thoughts and feelings
   • Controlling the environment
4. Postcompetition
   • Handling failure
   • Handling success

The branch in which I have the most interest is "Attitude/mindset." How do the inexperienced Magic, in just the second year of the Dwight Howard Playoff Era, compare with the veteran Pistons, which have made the Eastern Conference Finals in each of the last five seasons with the same core of players? One of the tenets of "Attitude/mindset," as the article explains, is "Having and unshakable self-belief as a result of total awareness of how you got to where you are now." Consider that, then examine this quote from Pistons guard Chauncey Billups, courtesy John Denton:

"That's what we do. We play physical and we feed off other teams when they try to be physical on us," he said. "It's like somebody coming to you house and doing exactly what you wanted. They feed right into what you wanted them to do. (The Magic) play hard, but they don't play as physical as us, but they shoot that three-pointer. If they can do that, they have a chance. But if they want to rough it up, it's going to be tough."

Of course, the Magic know what they have to do. Here's Keyon Dooling, from the same Denton article:

"More so than getting caught up in their physical game, we've got to take care of us," Dooling said. "We've got to make our shots and do what we've been doing all year."

Another tenet is "Having an inner arrogance that makes you believe that you can achieve anything you set your mind to." If there's any single word that describes the Pistons' demeanor, it's "arrogant." Heck, it sure didn't take long for Pistons center Theo Ratliff, who's been with the Pistons for fewer than three months, to adopt Detroit's trademark swag:

"Look at the [veteran big] guys we have. We've already played against the greatest who ever played -- Hakeem [Olajuwan], [Patrick] Ewing, David Robinson -- there is nobody we haven't seen or guarded," said Pistons backup center Theo Ratliff. "Sure, Dwight is an imposing player, but it's not something we're really worried about."

The Pistons aren't worried about containing Howard, the Magic's All-Star center and overall best player? Well, why should they be? His attitude in this series leaves much to be desired. Let's set the scene with two quotes, the first from Pistons forward Jason Maxiell, one of the four different Pistons who defended Dwight in Game One, telling reporters explaining how he and his teammates held our Superman in-check:

"You pretty much just have to get underneath him [Howard] and you're OK," Maxiell said. "He has really strong, broad shoulders, but you get down low and take his legs out from under him. He's not very powerful down low because his legs aren't very strong. There are ways to play him."

When informed of these comments, Magic coach Stan Van Gundy agreed with Maxiell's assessment, saying that Dwight needs a "stronger base." But Dwight himself disagreed, saying flatly, "That's not true. Trust me." So Dwight says he believes in himself, but does that sound bite actually convince you of anything? If anything, it sounds like Dwight's trying to convince himself.

But it gets worse. After the game, Howard said, "I don't think I even looked up at the scoreboard for a while. It's disappointing." Those are disconcertingly weak words for a guy who dominated the first round of the playoffs by having three games of 20-plus points and 20-plus rebounds in the series. Where are those performances? Where is the intensity he showed in the first round when he earned a technical foul after getting in Carlos Delfino's face after Delfino tried to hack him on a dunk attempt? Maybe Rasheed Wallace was right when he likened Dwight to his "intern." Dwight can't be afraid to man-up against Wallace or any of his teammates.

It should go without saying that Dwight Howard is the Magic's key to success, now and in the future. He must get himself back on track after a disastrous Game One in which he scored 12 points and grabbed 8 rebounds -- well below his averages. The Magic have no chance to win this series with Dwight struggling so mightily, especially when Tayshaun Prince shuts-down Hedo Turkoglu, the Magic's other big scoring threat. "Superman" must punish Maxiell, Wallace, Ratliff, and Antonio McDyess -- the foursome which RaptorsForum dubbed Detroit's "Legion of Doom" -- by attacking the basket as soon as he receives the ball and by being more active on the offensive boards. The Pistons are a great team, to be sure, but they aren't invincible. Dwight can be, when he wants to.

Advantage, Magic.

	vs.
39-13		33-21
The Palace of Auburn Hills
7:30 PM
Sun Sports HD
Probable starters:
Chauncey Billups	PG	Jameer Nelson
Richard Hamilton	SG	Maurice Evans
Tayshaun Prince	SF	Hedo Turkoglu
Antonio McDyess	PF	Rashard Lewis
Rasheed Wallace	C	Dwight Howard

The Pistons enter tonight's matchup with the Magic having won 10 straight games, yet nobody seems to want to talk about them. That's fine with Chauncey Billups. From the Denver Post:

"Nobody knows we're winning," Pistons guard Chauncey Billups said. "All people know is that Pau Gasol went to Los Angeles, Shaq (O'Neal) went to Phoenix and Jason Kidd is supposed to be on his way to Dallas."

[....]

But Billups, a Denver native, said he likes being the "hunter." He doesn't mind being under the radar in February, as long as he's still lacing his sneakers in June.

"Guys are making big-name trades, but to win a championship, you've got to be a cohesive unit," he said. "You can't have all all-stars. Some guys have to sacrifice some things and you have to be a little lucky, as well. Teams are making some great moves, but you still need time."

(Hat-tip: Detroit Bad Boys)

The Magic always have trouble with the Pistons, largely due to Billups' dominance over our point guards. Billups isn't big by NBA standards, but he's large enough (6'3", 201 pounds) to give Jameer Nelson (5'10", 180 pounds) fits, as Need4Sheed illustrated in this post. But he's not the only Piston who poses matchup problems for us. In the Magic's last visit to the Palace of Auburn Hills, a 101-93 defeat, Hedo Turkoglu let Rasheed Wallace abuse him for 13 points in the first quarter alone. The Pistons lead by 21 points at the end of that period and playing the remaining 36 minutes was a formality. Stan Van Gundy is going to have to adjust his defense before tonight's game if he hopes to leave the Palace a happy man.

For some good mojo, here's video of Rashard Lewis' game-winner against the Pistons from earlier this year:

Tipoff's at 7:30 PM on Sun Sports HD. Tonight is the first part of a road back-to-back against the Pistons and the Raptors, teams we went a combined 0-12 against last season. Let's see if we can't get the stretch run off to a good start against the most formidable team in the Eastern Conference, the one I most fear heading into the playoffs.

Go Magic!

UPDATE: Pistons Nation has its preview up, featuring a pretty cool photo manipulation of Dwight Howard's greatest enemy: Sheedonite! PN thinks the Pistons should be concerned with Hedo Turkoglu, especially on the pick-and-roll in the fourth quarter. Considering the damage Turk's done in the fourth quarters of games this year, I'd say PN is pretty spot-on.

	vs.
30-13		27-17
The Palace of Auburn Hills
7:00 PM
ESPN
Probable starters:
Chauncey Billups	PG	Carlos Arroyo
Richard Hamilton	SG	Maurice Evans
Tayshaun Prince	SF	Hedo Turkoglu
Antonio McDyess	PF	Rashard Lewis
Rasheed Wallace	C	Dwight Howard

The Magic are in Detroit tonight for the first time since last year's playoffs. Detroit has our number, especially in the Palace, where it's beaten us eight straight times. The Pistons will be focused after we beat them on Monday, so I'll be surprised if we don't get hammered by 37 points. As always, don't forget to check out Detroit Bad Boys, Need4Sheed, and Pistons Nation for your Pistons fix.  

A win tonight would certainly go a long way to showing that we've recovered after an early January slump. Cleveland is surging -- 9-1 in January -- and Washington is just 3 games behind us for the Southeast Division lead. We absolutely need to pick up the intensity level and get back to early-season form.

Jameer Nelson was planning to play tonight after having missed the past four games with a strained tendon in his right foot, but he's still not feeling well enough to play, says Brian Schmitz in his blog. Schmitz adds that Nelson is "doubtful" for Sunday's game against Boston. Carlos Arroyo will start in his place.

Curious fact: in games this season in which Jameer Nelson has not played, the Magic are 5-0. Might be a coincidence, might not be.

The ESPN crew will have the call at 7 PM this evening. The game will be in HD, which means you'll get an ultra-detailed view of Rasheed Wallace's bald spot.

	vs.
25-17		29-12
Amway Arena
7:00 PM
FSN Florida
Probable starters:
Carlos Arroyo	PG	Chauncey Billups
Maurice Evans	SG	Richard Hamilton
Hedo Turkoglu	SF	Tayshaun Prince
Rashard Lewis	PF	Antonio McDyess
Dwight Howard	C	Rasheed Wallace

Okay, here are my thoughts on the Portland game really quick: the Sentinel's headline the following morning was "Back on Track." As encouraging as it is to beat one of the league's hottest teams, getting too pumped about it will only put us on track for a butt-whipping tonight against the Pistons. The Trail Blazers were on the second night of a back-to-back and weren't aggressive offensively or defensively. So yes, it's a good win, but it didn't turn our season around by any means.

The Pistons clearly have our number, which is 9: the number of consecutive times they've defeated us. But there's no better time than the present to beat them: they're a mere 5-5 this month, and their last three losses have come at the hands of the sub-.500 Bulls, Kings, and Knicks. They appear to be mortal. Then again, they always get fired up to play us, so I don't know what to expect, except at least two buzzer-beating three-pointers from their starters. Detroit pulls miracle shots out of its ass comes up big at the end of shot-clocks and quarters better than any other team in the league, although that opinion is based on observation and not empirical data. Does 82games have anything on buzzer-beaters?

My Scrubway Scrub of the Game prediction: Rodney Stuckey. Wouldn't it be fitting that we somehow shut-down Billups or put him in foul trouble, only to see his backup drop a career-high on us, especially since his backup qas acquired via a draft pick we traded? That's about par for the course, right?

Brian Schmitz notes that Carlos Arroyo will start once again at point guard for Jameer Nelson, who hasn't recovered from his sore foot. Arroyo played 22 minutes against Portland and did not record a single assist. It's the first time in his career that he played 20-plus minutes without an assist. Weird.

Tipoff's at 7 PM on FSN Florida. For Pistons-centric reading, check out Detroit Bad Boys, Need 4 Sheed, and Pistons Nation.

	vs.
1-0		1-0
Amway Arena
7:00 PM
Probable starters:
Chauncey Billups	PG	Jameer Nelson
Richard Hamilton	SG	Keith Bogans
Tayshaun Prince	SF	Hedo Turkoglu
Antonio McDyess	PF	Rashard Lewis
Rasheed Wallace	C	Dwight Howard

25 words or fewer:The Pistons beat the Magic 8 times last season. That's really all you need to know.

Know your enemy: The Pistons, playing without Richard Hamilton, went into Miami last night and spanked the Heat. Tayshaun Prince dropped a career-high 34 points to lead Detroit. More importantly, they kept Shaquille O'Neal in check.

Useless information: Detroit coach Flip Saunders said that Richard Hamilton is expected to be available tonight, but if he isn't, rookie Arron Afflalo will start in his stead.

Bullet points:

• Just how did the Pistons render Shaq useless? As Basketbawful notes, "the Pistons used double-teams and zones to limit his touches. They also took advantage of the Diesel's lack of mobility and lateral quickness on defense to get him into foul trouble." The first part of that statement kinda worries me because they can do the same thing to Dwight Howard. Then again, Dwight dominated the game Wednesday while only taking 9 shots, so he's proven he doesn't need the ball to be effective. Additionally, given that Dwight has great lateral quickness, he shouldn't get into too much foul trouble.
• Hamilton's "family emergency", according to Natalie from Need4Sheed, was the birth of his child (via Detroit Bad Boys).
• Tim Povtak and John Denton have similar stories on how motivated the Magic are for tonight's game. Stan Van Gundy drew a huge "8" on the whiteboard in our locker-room, indicating the number of times the Pistons beat us last season.
• The Sentinel has two more articles about the Orlando Magic TV debacle. This one is from David "The Weekend Watchdog" Darling, and this one is from Iliana Limon.
• I'm not convinced we can win this game if one of our guys doesn't score 30 points. We know how much Chauncey Billups loves to play against us -- he averaged 26 points on 63% shooting in four regular-season games against us last year; we also know how poorly the 5'10" Jameer Nelson matches up with the 6'6" Billups. Rashard, Hedo, Dwight... we need your O tonight.
• I didn't meant for that last bit to rhyme.

Feel free to discuss the game in here. I'll have a recap up after its conclusion. If you're one of the many people Bright House has screwed over, well, there's always NBA Audio League Pass.