First one of these posts in a while...

• There's a Tim Povtak-penned article in the print version of this morning's Orlando Sentinel regarding this week's pre-draft camp and, to a lesser extent, the Magic's draft strategy. He spoke to Magic assistant GM Dave Twardzik for some insight. Here are a few pertinent quotes:

  "In all likelihood, we'll probably stay where we are [at 22]. And there is a chance our guy could be here [at the camp]," Twardzik said. "But there is a better chance that he won't be."

  [....]

  The Magic are expected to conduct personal interviews and private workouts at the RDV Sportsplex with a handful of players immediately after the draft camp. Twardkzik said the Magic likely will take the best player available at 22, regardless of position.

  Question: if the best player available is a point guard, will the Magic still draft him, despite their glaring need for a true power forward? Honestly, I don't think I care. The Magic haven't drafted well and it's unlikely anyone of consequence will still be on the board when the Magic pick. I've yet to form an opinion regarding whom the Magic should pick because, well, I don't watch college basketball. Based on the scouting reports, I favor Brandon Rush and his "high baskeball I.Q."

• I updated the Mock Draft Watch page today. Incredibly, ESPN's Chad Ford has us selecting Bill Walker, a small forward from Kansas State. Um, what? With Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu -- the third and second options on offense, respectively -- already manning that position, the Magic would be mad to draft another one, unless he can also play shooting guard.
• Tom Ziller breaks down the "pure point" vs. "combo guard" debate (using stats and graphs!) and asserts that no one kind is "better" than the other. Three of the four point guards still playing (Chauncey Billups, Tony Parker, and Rajon Rondo) are combo guards and the other (Derek Fisher) is a small two-guard. Conclusion? Assists are overrated.
  • And here's an interesting note for Jameer Nelson detractors: using this scale, he's a "purer" point guard than Kirk Hinrich, T.J. Ford, Billups, and even Devin Harris, among others. Of course, as Ziller notes, "purity" has nothing to do with "quality," but it dispels the notion that Nelson is a shameless, selfish gunner of a PG whom the Magic need to dump immediately. Nelson's not on the graph, but here are the raw data Ziller used.
• Bethlehem Shoals and co. announced today that their book, FreeDarko presents The Macrophenomenal Pro Basketball Almanac: Style, Stats, and Stars in Today's Game, is available for pre-order on Amazon.com. If you're a basketball geek (and you'd have to be to read my site, frankly) you owe it to yourself to order this book now.

Brent Beck, a die-hard Pacers fan, really wants Indiana to make a move for J.J. Redick, as he explains in a guest post at Indy Cornrows. Considering the Pacers a) are one of my favorite teams, b) Redick is one of my favorite players, and c) the Magic have no use for him, I heartily endorse the idea of sending Redick to Indy. But, as in any trade proposal, one must consider what the Pacers have to offer the Magic. And there's an obvious answer:

Jeff Foster.

File photo by Tim Strattman, the Associated Press

The Magic need help at power forward and center. Foster, a nine-year veteran with a career PER of 14.4, plays both positions. And unlike Brian Cook, the Magic's presumed backup four next season, Foster bangs around the boards with the best of them. And I really mean "the best": he lead the NBA in Offensive Rebounding Rate (the percentage of available offensive rebounds a player snags while on the floor) in each of the last two seasons. His career ORR, 15.31, is fifth-best in the history of the league and tops among active players, even more highly paid ones like Erick Dampier, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, and Ben Wallace. And, wouldn't you know it, the Magic's biggest weakness in their first season under Stan Van Gundy was their inability to clean up their own misses: although they were nigh-elite on the defensive boards, they were horrendous on the offensive ones, finishing 27th in the league in Offensive Rebounding Rate.

Foster's presence has a tremendous impact on the Pacers' rebounding abilities as a team. Data from 82games.com show that when he's on the floor, they grab 50.9% of available rebounds, a 4.7% improvement from their average when he's off the floor. Don't let the advertising quacks fool you. "Foster" is not "Australian for 'beer,'" but rather "San Antonian for 'Rebound.'"

As always, we must consider finances when discussing potential trades. Foster's $5.70 million salary next season more than double's Redick's ($2.14 million), but the Magic can throw in a player to make the trade work. Whom might they package? Look no further than Brian Cook. At 27, he's nearly four full years younger than Foster, and while he's certainly hit his ceiling, he fits in with Indiana's younger players (average age: 26.7) better than Foster did. Additionally, Cook's specialty, three-point shooting, will come in handy in Indiana. Only the Warriors and the Magic attempted more triples last season than the Pacers did, yet they finished eighth in three-point percentage. As a bonus for Indiana, his style contrasts nicely with Ike Diogu, the so-called "steal" in the trade that sent Stephen Jackson and Al Harrington to the Warriors, who plays more of a low-post game.

And if all those reasons didn't do it for you, maybe this one will. Foster's contract expires at the end of next season, giving the Magic cap room to re-sgn Hedo Turkoglu, who will almost certainly use his opt-out clause to negotiate a contract which would reward him for his exemplary play of late. Or, if Turk decides he would rather not stay with the Magic, or if the Magic decide Turk's asking price is too high, they can try to re-sign Foster.

To me, this trade is a low-risk, high-reward proposition for the Magic. They exchange one young player who doesn't play and a veteran who doesn't fit their needs for a veteran who does fit their needs. Heck, I wouldn't mind throwing a future first-round pick into the deal if it would appease the Pacers.

When the Magic traded Trevor Ariza to the Lakers for Maurice Evans and Cook, ESPN's John Hollinger liked the deal because it was the sort of minor move that above-average teams make to take themselves to the next level. Obtaining Foster would be a similar, seemingly minor move for the Magic, but one that would pay even greater dividends. Every serious contender in the NBA gets contributions from role-players: Detroit has Antonio McDyess; San Antonio has Kurt Thomas; Boston has... well, it has three future Hall-of-Famers, so it doesn't count; and the Lakers have Derek Fisher. If the Magic want to make the most of the primes of their stars, they'd do well to acquire Foster (or another similar role-player) who may be slightly past his.

This post outlines some numbers and facts to consider before the start of free-agency. Teams can begin negotiating with players on July 1st but cannot sign anyone until July 11th. I obtained all the player salary data in this post from HoopsHype.com. I obtained the salary-cap and exception estimations from DraftExpress (via Canis Hoopus)

The Magic have seven players with guaranteed contracts for the 2008/09 season. They will also have the 22nd overall pick in the upcoming draft, and thus will have eight players under contract when free-agency begins July 1st. As shown below, these eight players will earn a total of $55.23 million.

They also have three players who could return depending on their contract options. Keith Bogans and Adonal Foyle own player options, and the team has an option on Marcin Gortat. All three players are expected to return; Bogans and Foyle likely will not find better offers, and the team appears to think highly of Gortat, as he earned the backup center role in the playoffs. If all three players return, the Magic will owe them a combined $4.88 million, as this table shows.

The Magic will owe these eleven players a total of $60.11 million, which is above the estimated salary cap ($58.50 million). Because the team will be over the cap, they will have the right to use the mid-level exception (estimated at $5.55 million). Additionally, the Magic will have the right to use the bi-annual exception (estimated at $1.91 million) because they did not use it last year. These exceptions give the Magic an extra $7.46 million with which to fill their roster. Please see this section of Larry Coon's invaluable NBA Salary Cap FAQ for more information on these exceptions.

So, if all eleven players return (as we suspect they will) and if the team uses both exceptions, the Magic will owe $67.57 million to their players. That figure is below the estimated luxury-tax threshold ($71 million).

We expect their first priority will be re-signing Keyon Dooling, who earned $3.5 million last season and will likely seek a raise based on his strong play, as he became the Magic's top reserve with his defensive and shot-creating skills. Maurice Evans and Carlos Arroyo might return, but Evans will look to triple his salary (he earned $1.5 million last season) and Arroyo would have to accept a heavy paycut ($4.0 million last season). We don't expect either of them to return, nor do we expect the team to offer contracts to little-used power forwards James Augustine or Pat Garrity. As such, we've left them out of the table below.

Yes, the Magic have plenty of choices to make this offseason, but none of them as significant (or as franchise-defining) as the ones they made last summer, namely signing Rashard Lewis and extending Dwight Howard's contract. However, these smaller transactions may turn out to be more significant, as the team appears to be only a player or two away from seriously contending for the NBA title.

NOTES:

• ¹: As of July 1, 2008
• ²: 2008/09 season
• ³: Estimated

Pau Gasol defends Dwight Howard the only way he knows how to: by flopping.
Photo by Fernando Medina, NBAE/Getty Images

On the first possession of the game, Dwight Howard got position on the right block, posted-up Pau Gasol, and went around him for a layup. Gasol offered no resistance. A minute later, Howard again posted-up Gasol, this time on the left block. Gasol flopped egregiously as Howard made his move, and got the benefit of the whistle, as he would all night. In one unbelievable, second-quarter sequence, Gasol flopped while Howard posted him up, forcing the turnover. On the ensuing Laker possession, Gasol himself posted up Howard, dribbled, and flailed his arms wildly when he felt Howard's forearm on his lower back. Howard was called for the foul. Thank you, Pau Gasol: You've taught me that it is indeed possible to flop while dribbling.

Still, we can't sweat the poor officiating in this one. In spite of it, we had plenty of chances to win in the end.

Point-blank: we did not deserve to win last night.

Sure, we played hard. But no team that turns an 11-point lead after one quarter into a 1-point deficit at halftime, battles back to give itself a chance in the closing minutes, then misses its last five shots of the game can legitimately say, "We deserved this one." No team can hope to succeed in the playoffs when it executes so poorly down the stretch. Let's set the scene:

The Magic took the lead, 112-111, on two Hedo Turkoglu free throws with 1:37 to play. On Los Angeles' next possession, Keith Bogans forced Kobe Bryant into taking a contested 17-footer, which he missed. Rashard Lewis rebounded for Orlando.

That's when it got ugly.

• On the ensuing possession, Turkoglu hoisted a three-pointer with 10 seconds remaining on the shot clock. I understand wanting to go for the dagger in front of the home crowd, but that was a poor idea with that much time on the shot clock and the team clinging to a one-point lead. Gasol rebounded and outlet the ball to Bryant, whom Turkoglu fouled. Bryant converted the free throws to give the Lakers a one-point lead.
• After two Orlando 20-second timeouts (one to set-up a play, the other to preserve possession after Turkoglu caught the inbounds pass and tripped), Jameer Nelson missed a step-back 18-footer with 14 seconds on the shot clock. That's too early to shoot. Bryant rebounded and the Lakers scored when Howard goaltended a Lamar Odom jumper.
• Keith Bogans missed a layup. The ball bounced out-of-bounds off a Laker player and the Magic call their final timeout.
• Rashard Lewis has his catch-and-shoot three-pointer from the right corner partially blocked by Lamar Odom. Bryant rebounded, Jameer Nelson had no choice but to foul him. Kobe made two free throws as Lakers fans in attendance chanted "M-V-P! M-V-P!" The Lakers lead, 117-112, with 14 second remaining. Game (effectively) over.

I give our guys a lot of credit for fighting back. The game looked really out of reach there late in the third quarter, but we steadily chipped-away at the Lakers' lead and put ourselves in decent position to win the game, only to take ill-advised shots. Note that Dwight Howard had 0 attempts in crunch time, even though he was 8-of-8 from the field. Stan Van Gundy said after the game he told his players to get Dwight the ball, but for whatever reason, they didn't. He defended his players by adding that it's easy for him to say, "Get Dwight the ball!" from the sidelines when he doesn't have a guy like Lamar Odom or Kobe Bryant standing right in front of him.

After the game, I turned to my dad and said, "That's vintage Orlando Magic basketball right there."

Notes:

• J.J. Redick exchanged pleasantries with the Lakers' Sasha Vujacic after Vujacic fouled him late in the second quarter. Bryant had to step between the two players, who each earned technical fouls. Redick vs. Vujacic might be the least exciting fight in NBA history.
• Pat Garrity was booed when he checked into the game late in the second quarter. During the 38 seconds he played, the Lakers "defended" him with Derek Fisher, who is 6'1". Jameer Nelson had to contend with 6'10" Vladimir Radmanovic guarding him around the perimeter.
• Adonal Foyle picked up his fourth foul late in the third quarter. With Howard already sitting with five fouls, and with no other center active, Stan Van Gundy had no choice but to insert J.J. Redick into the lineup. Redick joined Jameer Nelson, Maurice Evans, Rashard Lewis, and Brian Cook on the floor. Indeed, Brian Cook played center for this brief stretch, and was called upon to defend Pau Gasol.
• Put another notch in your belt, Carlos Arroyo fans; the Magic lost a game in which Nelson started while Arroyo received a DNP-CD. Feel free to ignore the fact that Nelson played well (17 points, 7-of-15 shooting, 9 assists, 0 turnovers), or that Los Angeles is a damn good team, or that Howard and Turkoglu were in foul trouble for the entire game, or that Arroyo laid an egg Wednesday against New Jersey.

	vs.
32-19		31-17
Amway Arena
7:00 PM
FSN Florida
Probable starters:
Jameer Nelson	PG	Derek Fisher
Maurice Evans	SG	Kobe Bryant
Hedo Turkoglu	SF	V. Radmanovic
Rashard Lewis	PF	Lamar Odom
Dwight Howard	C	Pau Gasol

Our game-day feature is a bit of Lakers Q-and-A with Kurt of the web's premier Laker-fan resource, Forum Blue & Gold. You may remember him from the insight he gave us when the Lakers and the Magic engaged in a three-player trade last November. Kurt took the time to answer some of our questions, just as I answered some of his.

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3QC: It's been nearly three months since the Magic traded Trevor Ariza to the Lakers for Brian Cook and Maurice Evans. How has that deal worked for the Lakers? Does Ariza, who can opt-out of his contract this summer, fit in to their future plans?

Kurt: The deal has been viewed as a great move for the Lakers. Until he got his foot stomped on by Derek Fisher in practice (Ariza is out a few more weeks with a broken bone in his foot), he had become a key player at the small forward, splitting time with Luke Walton. He is far more athletic than Luke and a much better defender, so depending on the matchup he or Luke got the start and the majority of minutes that night (Ariza started three games and was playing about 18 minutes a game, up from 10 in Orlando). It was his defense that was winning him fans, it gave the Lakers a second very good perimeter defender to take some pressure off Kobe at that end. And the move even helped Ariza's offense - the first half of the year in Orlando he shot 45.2% and had a PER of 12.9, in LA that jumped to 52.4% and a PER of 17.3. Plus, he had a monster dunk on Christmas Day over Grant Hill.

It's going to be interesting with the Gasol trade - Odom will start at the three and the Lakers are now pretty crowded at forward (Radmanovic can play there as well in a tall lineup). Still, Ariza's defense will get him minutes. I'd be surprised if Ariza opts out at the end of the year. I think the Lakers would like to keep him around as part of a young core that can compete for a title for the next few years, so long as it can be done at a reasonable price.

3QC: Los Angeles made a much bigger trade last week by acquiring All-Star forward Pau Gasol, which sparked plenty of championship talk among Lakers fans and NBA commentators alike. Given the formidable playoff lineup of Derek Fisher, Kobe Bryant, Lamar Odom, Gasol, and Andrew Bynum, is there any team in the league which the Lakers would stand no chance of defeating in a seven-game series?

Kurt: One of the best parts of the Gasol trade (other than just getting rid of Kwame) and the way the Lakers roster is built is the flexibility it gives Phil Jackson. Want to go small, put in a lineup of Fisher, Jordan Farmar, Kobe, Ariza and Lamar Odom. Want to go very big, put in Kobe, Ariza, Odom (or Vladamir Radmanovic), Gasol and Bynum. Need just a few stops, put in a defensive-focused lineup of Fisher, Kobe, Ariza, Ronny Turiaf and Bynum. And those lists go on. In the crazy-deep Western Conference matchups in the playoffs are going to be key, you're going to see a different kind of team each round and you need to be able to counteract that style (just ask the Mavericks). The Lakers are in a better position now than any other team in the West to do that. But we'll see how that translates into wins when it matters.

3QC: Bynum, the Lakers' young (franchise?) center, has improved dramatically this season. What's been the key to his success?

Kurt: No need to put that question mark after franchise. He is part of the core of this team for the next decade and beyond, even after Kobe hangs it up.

The biggest change this season has been Bynum's conditioning. His first two years in the league he spent a lot of time with Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (which you probably noticed because every time Bynum scored in a national broadcast the television cameras cut to Kareem). Kareem taught Bynum a lot about how to play the low post, proper footwork, using his body and length to get rebounds, etc. Last season, forced into extended minutes because of injuries, Bynum was learning how to apply those lessons in games, but his body kept betraying him. He got tired quickly, wasn't strong enough to do what he wanted at times. This past summer he spent a lot of time putting on muscle and getting in NBA condition (he's no Howard but he's not bad). The results have been phenomenal - and as he does something well his confidence grows, and then he feels comfortable trying different things he'd been working on. That's a great upward spiral for a young player.

3QC: Which Laker, besides Bynum, has been the most pleasantly surprising this season?

Kurt: Jordan Farmar has been the other key. Clearly the guy had leadership skills - he took UCLA to the NCAA title game, and in that game was the only Bruin to play worth a damn, scoring 18. He fits with the Lakers style in that he's got a great basketball IQ. And, he's a gym rat. The quintessential story about Farmar is this: On draft night last year the Lakers took the now-traded Javaris Crittenton in the first round, another young point guard. As the Lakers front office staff at the LA team headquarters were leaving the building that night, Jordan Farmar came in and started working on his shot. Nobody was going to take his spot. This season his shooting has improved - overall from 42.2% last season to 47.5% this year, and from three he's now shooting 38.9%, up from 32% last year. He's splitting time and learning from Derek Fisher, something that has the added benefit of keeping the not-so-young legs of Fisher fresh for the playoffs.

3QC: Which Magic player poses the toughest matchup for the Lakers? Conversely, which Laker poses the toughest matchup for the Magic?

Kurt: Um, have you seen Dwight Howard play? Does anyone have someone to matchup with him? He is going to be a big challenge with Bynum out, Pau Gasol is tall but not a great post defender. You may see a bunch of DJ Mbenga (a 10-day contract guy). The other guys who could have a big night are Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu. One of the problems for the Lakers defense this year, particularly since Bynum and his presence in the paint went down, is that defenders are quick to sag off guys at the three-point line to defend the paint. Since the Magic have so many guys who can shoot the three, that can be a problem for the Lakers.

On the flip side, nobody really has a matchup for Kobe. The only thing slowing him down right now is he dislocated the little finger on his shooting hand against the Nets and that impacted his shooting against the Hawks Wednesday night. We'll see what happens tonight, but he is a force unlike any other. I'm curious how the Magic will defend the high pick and roll with Kobe as the ball handler and Gasol setting the pick (he has the skills to roll to the basket if you trap Kobe, or if you sit back on him he can slide out and hit the 18 footer). Also, depending on which Lamar Odom shows up, he can be almost unstoppable. He is the one that stops himself most nights.

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We'd like to thank Kurt once again for his thoughtful responses to our questions. Once again, be sure to check out the game preview at Forum Blue & Gold to see how I responded to Kurt's questions.

	vs.
9-7		14-4
Staples Center
9:30 PM
Sun Sports HD
Probable starters:
Derek Fisher	PG	Jameer Nelson
Kobe Bryant	SG	Keith Bogans
Lamar Odom	SF	Hedo Turkoglu
Ronny Turiaf	PF	Rashard Lewis
Andrew Bynum	C	Dwight Howard

• UPDATE: Forum Blue and Gold, the finest Lakers blog on the tubes, has posted its preview for tonight's game.
• The Lakers have struggled with their defense this year. They're 16th in defensive efficiency, and gave up 120 points to the Jazz the other night despite Utah behing without All-Stars Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur.
• Brian Schmitz has this feature on Rashard Lewis in which Stan Van Gundy places some of the blame for Lewis' shooting slump on himself:

  "If we're going to really get our shooting back to where it was, the minutes are going to have to get more realistic on he and Turk. I have not done a good job at that," Van Gundy said. "If you're looking at their minutes [Lewis leads with 39.3 minutes per game and Turkoglu averages 36.9], it's not realistic, especially on a nightly basis when we're a team that's played the most games in the league."

• This has nothing to do with the Magic, but how about UCF winning the Conference USA Championship behind the strong running of Kevin Smith? Congratulations, Golden Knights!
• The Magic are 2-16 (.111) all-time on the road against the Lakers. Despite that, Accuscore thinks we'll win the game, giving us a 52% chance of leaving L.A. victorious.
• Trevor Ariza hasn't done much since we traded him to L.A., averaging just 2 points, 0.3 rebounds and 0.3 assists.
  • UPDATE: John Denton spoke with Ariza about his frustrating season. Ariza had hoped to showcase his skills before becoming a free-agent next summer, possibly cashing in on a career-year. But he didn't crack the rotation in Orlando and hasn't mastered Lakers coach Phil Jackson's offense.

The game recap may be up later than usual tonight. Feel free to write your own in the diaries.