Hedo Turkoglu rubs Jameer Nelson's head during a break in the action in Saturday evening's Orlando Magic/Detroit Pistons game. Detroit won, 90-89, to take a commanding 3-1 series lead.

Photo by Doug Benc, Getty Images

This game was ours for the taking, but we didn't take it. We had an 11-point halftime lead and bumped it up to 15 with a Maurice Evans three-pointer. All we had to do was to get two more stops and two more baskets. That's it. We could have gone up by 19 points and the Pistons would surely have packed it in. Instead, they went on a backbreaking 15-0 run, capped off by a fast-break dunk by Richard Hamilton.

And in the end, we only needed one basket to win. Tayshaun Prince hit a floater in the lane (thanks to an Antonio McDyess offensive rebound) to put the Pistons ahead, 90-89. Hedo Turkoglu, who scored 13 of his 20 points in the period, missed a driving layup over Prince at the buzzer to end the game and, essentially, the series. But it should not have come to that. We wasted too many opportunities to blame the loss squarely on Hedo's missed layup. Take a look at this laundry list of miscues:

• Dwight Howard's missed dunk (2:28, first quarter). This dunk wasn't heavily contested. Dwight reached back with one hand and simply threw it too hard into the back iron.
• Keyon Dooling's bad pass (11:30, second quarter). The scorer credited Keyon with the turnover, but this one was Dwight's fault. After screening for Keyon on the right baseline, Howard rolled to the basket and was wide-open. Keyon delivered a crisp bounce pass, but Howard bobbled it, and Jason Maxiell recovered for Detroit.
• Jameer Nelson's missed free throws (take your pick). Nelson, shooting 83.9% from the stripe this postseason, went just 2-of-6 from the line tonight. Sure, other guys missed free throws -- Rashard Lewis was 1-of-2 and Hedo was 4-of-5 -- but Nelson's misses simply stand out more. His miss with 44 seconds remaining kept the score 89-88, our favor. If he had made it, Tayshaun Prince's floater with 8.9 left in the game would have tied the score, not given the Pistons the lead.

Obviously, I'm disappointed we lost, but we still got some great efforts:

• Hedo was huge in the fourth quarter, as I mentioned.
• Maurice Evans played his tail off and scored 15 points.
• Keith Bogans had 6 points and 7 boards (?!) off the bench, and he showed a new dimension in his game: the driving layup. Both of his field goals were of that variety, and they were both "and-one" plays. A shaky foul shooter, Bogans converted on both his tries.
• In just 3 minutes, Marcin Gortat showed flashes of brilliance, scoring on a beautiful hook from the left baseline (over Rasheed Wallace, no less) and on a layup. The final total for Marcin: 4 points, 1 rebound, and 1 block in just 3 minutes.

I say "just" 3 minutes for Marcin because he should have been on the floor longer. Dwight Howard had arguably his worst offensive performance as a professional, with 8 points on 3-of-12 shooting. He didn't make any shots after the first quarter. The Pistons took him out of the game by muscling him as he shot, and he did not get the benefit of the whistle. Perhaps intimidated, by their defense, he also rushed a few shots, including one put-back (3:08, second quarter) that the threw entirely too hard off the glass; all he needed to do was grab the rebound, come down with it, gather himself, and go up for the jam. With more rest -- he played the entire second half! -- he might have been able to tip-in Hedo's missed layup at the final buzzer. He might have been able to box-out McDyess (who finished with 14 rebounds) more effectively. And something tells me that Gortat would have been able to hold his own in Dwight's absence. But we'll never know for sure.

After Game Three, Yahoo!'s Kelly Dwyer wrote that we let the Pistons creep back into the game because "Jameer Nelson really enjoys shooting 20-foot jumpers." It's true. Nelson tends to settle for the jump-shot too frequently, and especially at the ends of quarters. He ended the Magic's last three first-quarter possessions on jump-shots, making the first and missing the next two. He finished with 6 assists and just 1 turnover, which is fantastic, but the 6-of-14 shooting isn't. And we covered the free-throw shooting.

That's a wrap, both for this recap and for this series. Game Five is Tuesday night in Detroit, and I expect the Pistons to close it out in big fashion on their home floor. They've earned it. Of course, I won't complain if the Magic steal one there... but I wouldn't bank on it.

The Magic's Jameer Nelson tied for the team lead in scoring with 22 points, but it didn't matter, as Orlando fell to Detroit, 100-93, facing a 2-0 series deficit in its best-of-seven Eastern Conference Semifinals matchup.

Photo by Allen Einstein, NBAE/Getty Images

Let's get one thing out of the way: the Magic did not lose tonight's game because of the three-point basket that the Pistons were erroneously awarded at the end of the third quarter. Odenized (who else?) has the video of the whole bizarre sequence at YouTube:

As you can see, the game-clock malfunctioned, and only three-tenths of a section went off the clock despite the Pistons inbounding the ball, taking three dribbles, passing, taking another dribble, then passing again to Chauncey Billups for the shot.

That basket gave the Pistons a 78-76 lead heading into the fourth quarter. The Magic had 12 minutes to overcome a two-point deficit. Yes, they should have started the quarter with a one-point lead, but there's no way to guarantee that it would have made any difference. A lot can happen in 12 minutes of basketball, so let's not waste our time complaining about an error the officials were not even allowed to fix, given the current replay rules, and instead use in constructively on figuring out why we lost.

First, we turned the ball over entirely too much (19 turnovers on 87 possessions), forcing the issue early in the game and down the stretch. Rashard Lewis, Hedo Turkoglu, and Dwight Howard combined for 17 of those turnovers, although we can attribute most of Dwight's miscues to soreness in his left thumb, which made it hard for him to hang onto passes. Our gameplan seemed to be "get the ball to Dwight!" and, although it worked well when executed, both Lewis and Turkoglu were guilty of telegraphing their entry passes, which the Pistons easily deflected or stole. Turkoglu in particular had a horrible offensive game. His rushed three-point jumper -- there were 21 seconds on the shot clock. Turk! -- with the Magic down 2 points and 48 seconds to play doomed us. It's bad enough he shot it just 3 seconds into the possession. What makes it worse is the fact that he did not set his feet OR follow through. Our greatest fears have come true: Hedo, our greatest fourth-quarter player, has developed a hero complex.

This shot was eerily similar to the fadeaway three for which he settled at the buzzer of the Magic's 103-102 loss to the Timberwolves in mid-April. After that game, Magic coach Stan Van Gundy said, "I didn't like the shot because he wasn't set." Well, I hope Hedo hears it from Stan and from the media after tonight's game: that rushed shot, more than anything else we did offensively, doomed us.

There's also the matter of defense. We held Richard Hamilton to 14 points on 4-of-18 shooting, but we had no answer for Detroit's other three big guns: Billups, Tayshaun Prince, and Rasheed Wallace combined for 62 points on 23-of-42 shooting. Now, Billups' total -- 28 -- is a bit nflated due to the fouling we did late in the game when it got out of hand, and Jameer Nelson was no slouch offensively with 22 points of his own. Still, when Wallace and Prince create mismatches like that, Detroit is tough to beat. We simply don't have an answer for those two players. Prince is too quick for Turkoglu to guard, yet too tall for Maurice Evans to guard. Similarly, Wallace has too much range for Dwight to handle, yet too good a post game for Rashard to handle. And that, in a nutshell, is how the Pistons have stayed on top of the East for so long: they have four guys who can beat tyou, by themselves, on any given night.

But let's give ourselves some credit for fighting back from a fourteen-point deficit against a superior team on its home floor. Let's also credit the Pistons, for clamping down on defense when it mattered most: we scored 17 points on 25 fourth-quarter possessions for an offensive rating of 68.0.

Let me recognize some strong efforts from our guys before I wrap this thing up: Jameer's 22 points were fantastic, and tonight was his best game against Detroit by far in his career. People may point to Billups' gaudy 28 points, but that doesn't tell the whole story. Jameer took, and made, some big shots of his own, and his five three-pointers are the only reason we were in the game in the second half anyway. And Dwight Howard, with 22 points and 18 rebounds, was tremendous. He fared well against each Piston who defended him, even throwing down a furious two-handed slam in the face of that #42 fellow on the Pistons, the one whose name escapes me.

Photo by Gregory Shamus, Getty Images

Dwight did a lot of the dirty work tonight and recovered nicely from his poor Game One effort.

I don't know the exact statistic, but if memory serves, when the team with home-court advantage in a seven-game series wins its first two games, it goes on to win the series 94% of the time. But I'm not counting us out quite yet. Turnovers and boneheaded shot-selection aside, we still played a heckuva game tonight, and as I said in the Hoops Addict podcast I did last night, there's no shame in losing to a better team, especially when you put up a fight, which we did tonight.

For more on tonight's game, check out Matt Watson's pregame interview with Rashard Lewis. Also check out this unscientific poll at OrlandoSentinel.com, in which 76% of respondents blame poor officiating for the Magic's loss tonight, at least at the time of this post.

Dwight Howard pulls down one of his 22 rebounds to ignite an Orlando Magic fast-break in their 114-100 victory over the Toronto Raptors.

Photo by Fernando Medina, NBAE/Getty Images

Wow. What a game, right?

The Magic got of to the hottest start imaginable against the Raptors in their first series-opening home playoff game in over a decade. They shot a blistering 80% in the first quarter, hitting 9 of their 11 three-pointers, and scored 43 points in the period. The Raptors had no answer for, well, anything. Many of the three-point attempts were uncontested.

But the hot shooting wasn't the only reason the crowd was pumped up. Dwight Howard blocked three shots in the first nine minutes, setting the tone defensively. And Hedo Turkoglu got his once-a-month driving dunk in, barreling into the lane from the left corner, elevating past Andrea Bargnani, and throwing it down with his right hand.

The first period showed the differences between the teams' coaches. Our coach, Stan Van Gundy, did not change his game plan at all. We shot the three-pointer, like we have all season, and we made opponents pay for leaving our shooters open. In contrast, Sam Mitchell shuffled his starting lineup, putting Andrea Bargnani at small forward for the first time all season. He hoped Bargnani's size would present problems for Turkoglu, but he was wrong. Curiously, Jamario Moon, the Raptors' best defender and usual starter at small forward, played just five minutes. Perhaps Mitchell will be more inclined to play him more in Game Two...?

But everything changed after the first period. Obviously, we weren't going to keep shooting at an 80% clip, but the dropoff was tremendous. Simply put, we went cold. After shooting 16-of-20 for 43 in the first quarter, we went 15-of-36 for 42 points over the next two, and headed into the fourth period with a scant 10-point lead.

But that's when Dwight Howard took over.

More precisely, he didn't take over until after the Raptors pulled within 5 on a Jason Kapono three-pointer. But from then on, he decided this game belonged to him, and to him alone:

• Coming out of the ensuing timeout, Hedo Turkoglu took a contested two-point jumper, but it went in anyway. 90-83, Magic.
• Rasho Nesterovic missed badly on the other end. Dwight rebounded...
• ...ran the floor, and was rewarded with a slam dunk off a Turkoglu assist. 92-83, Magic.
• Jose Calderon missed a fairly open three-pointer. Dwight rebounded...
• And was there to clean up the mess on the other end, when Turk missed a layup. 94-83, Magic.
• Kapono missed a wild three when he tried to create off-the-dribble, which is something we can let him do. Dude does not have a handle. Keith Bogans got the rebound.
• After an illegal defense against the Raptors, and Rashard Lewis' ensuing missed technical free throw, the Magic ran a set play for Bogans, who was to shoot out a three of the right corner. The shot was too strong, the ball bounced off the far side of the rim... and Dwight was there for the putback slam. 96-83, Magic.
• Toronto called timeout. Didn't matter. Dwight played the passing lanes and came up with a steal...
• ...threw it ahead to Jameer Nelson, who laid it in. 98-83, Magic. Ballgame.

I've seen Dwight play plenty of games over the past several years, but I've never seen him dominate, on both ends of the floor, like he did yesterday. It was his best game at the professional level, and is nearly unprecedented for someone his age. Only three other players since 1986 have recorded 25-point, 20-rebound, 5-block efforts before age 23: Shaquille O'Neal, Charles Barkley, and Shawn Bradley. Of those players, only Shaq did it at a younger age than Dwight did yesterday.

So, should we get out the brooms and prepare for a sweep? No. God, no. In the 68 possessions in periods two through four, we scored 71 points, for a dreadfully low offensive rating of 104.4, so it's not like we dominated the Raptors from start to finish. Jameer Nelson and Maurice Evans won't play this well every night, just as Chris Bosh and Forderon won't play as poorly. We have the more talented team, but still only won yesterday because of (a) freakishly hot shooting and (b) Toronto's reluctance to exploit Jameer Nelson's defense. However, we will win this series. But not every game will be as easy.

Buckle up. It's going to be a long series.

Two weeks ago, With Malice hosted Unsung Player Day. Although they invited me to participate, I never got around to writing what I wanted to. Well, better late than never.

The next time you're at a party, you can mention this fact and watch as the people to whom you're taking react with amazement^*: Of Maurice Evans' 253 field goals for the Magic this season, 73 were dunks and 80 were three-pointers. All told, dunks and treys account for 60.5% of his made field goals.

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I get the sense that J.J. Redick is on his way out, or at least that he will be this summer.

From Brian Schmitz's recap of last night's win:

The club has the midlevel exception (roughly $6 million a year), but that attracts few stars. Short on bigs, [Magic GM Otis] Smith said he'd like to add another power forward "to protect Dwight."

And from Schmitz's blog today, emphasis mine:

Magic General Manager Otis Smith flatly refused to trade J.J. Redick before this season's trade deadline, but he is a little more open to moving the unhappy Duke icon now.

Smith told me that he'd look at dealing Redick either in the June draft or in another trade this summer.

Redick, frustrated with his lack of playing time, requested a trade early this season. Smith now says he doesn't rule out dealing Redick this summer, but would prefer he remain patient and stay with a promising team.

Smith might be looking for another shooting guard on the market, although Maurice Evans played well since arriving in a November trade from the L.A. Lakers.

"All of our free agents had good years," Smith said.

I'm not a math major, but I do know how to add two and two. Smith's new stance regarding Redick leads me to believe he thinks Maurice Evans is good enough to be this team's starting two-guard, and that Redick is the Magic's best trade asset to acquire what the team needs most: a true power forward, a point I drove into the ground back in February.

All that said, I doubt Redick has as much value as we think he does. If Otis thinks he can use Redick to move up in the draft, he can probably forget it. The Magic, who will probably pick in the 20s, certainly can't expect to receive a lottery pick for a little-used, undersized, two-guard who is a defensive liability... can they?

A more realistic option is trading J.J. for an established role-player. TravelerKT from Denton's board suggests shipping J.J. and Marcin Gortat to Portland for Channing Frye (stats). Those per-36-minute numbers sure are pretty, as is the PER of 14.7, which makes him a "pretty good player" according to John Hollinger's rating scale. As a bonus, his rebound rate (the percentage of available rebounds he grabs) is 15.5, 47th in the league this season.

Not much is certain about the Magic's offseason maneuvering, and with the playoffs and draft still to come, it's probably too early to speculate. But it indeed appears as though J.J. Redick's days as part of the Orlando Magic are nearing an end.

	vs.
51-30		43-38
Amway Arena
7:00 PM
Sun Sports
Probable starters:
Jameer Nelson	PG	Antonio Daniels
Maurice Evans	SG	D. Stevenson
Hedo Turkoglu	SF	Darius Songaila
Rashard Lewis	PF	Antawn Jamison
Dwight Howard	C	Brendan Haywood
Season series:
3 Nov 2007: Magic 94, Wizards 82
5 Mar 2008: Magic 112, Wizards 92
19 Mar 2008: Wizards 87, Magic 86

Neither team has anything to play for except pride. I don't expect to see too much of Dwight, Hedo, or Rashard tonight. Granted, Stan Van Gundy said after the game last night that he always prefers to be on the winning side of the scoreboard, but I don't think he'll mind losing tonight, if that is indeed the result.

Hopefully, the inconsequentiality of this game will result in PLENTY of minutes for J.J. Redick, James Augustine, and Marcin Gortat. Yes, the fans pay to see the Big Guys, but the end-of-the-bench players are easy to root for, too. Especially J.J. Let me go ahead and start the chant:

J!-J!-RED!-ICK! clap, clap, clap-clap-clap.

J!-J!-RED!-ICK! clap, clap, clap-clap-clap.

Check out SB Nation's Wizards blog, Bullets Forever, for their P.O.V. and to get another look at the SBN 2.0 platform. We make the switch this Friday.

Tip's at 7 on Sun Sports. If you're going to the game, give the guys a huge ovation. And say hi to the guy in the lower bowl who always wears a Brian Cook jersey.

Go Magic.

Maurice Evans shoots against in the Magic's 121-105 win over the Hawks on Tuesday night. Evans scored a career-high 27 points to help the Magic win for their first win it Atlanta in their past six visits.
Photo by Gregory Smith, the Associated Press

From my preview of this game yesterday...

So yes indeed, our guys need to have their focus at the foul-line tonight if they hope to earn their 51st victory of the season. They'll also have to find some way to stop Joe Johnson, whose scoring output has increased (24, 27, 34) in each game against the Magic. Maurice Evans and Keith Bogans have their work cut out for them.

So, how'd that work out? We shot 72% from the foul line and held Joe Johnson to 10 points, only 2 in the second half. Maurice Evans nearly tripled Johnson's output, with a career-high 27 points, and 15 in the third quarter alone, helping the Magic turn a four-point halftime deficit into a 9-point advantage after three periods. Kudos also to Jameer Nelson, who scored 7 of his 14 points in the period.

We needed Evans' hot shooting tonight. Dwight Howard couldn't get anything going offensively, and didn't seem too engaged in the action. He finished with 13 rebounds, but easily could have snagged 3 more had he not simply given up on them. He also seemed frustrated that the Hawks were allowed to hack him with impunity. That's fine, though. The officials let him get away with some, uh, extracurricular contact also.

It really is hard to complain about this win. The Hawks used a 14-1 run at the start of the second quarter to take control of the game, and at halftime it looked as though we were headed toward our 31st loss of the season. Fortunately, our starters were motivated in the third quarter, asserted themselves, and retook the lead. As a result, Stan Van Gundy was able to empty the bench in the fourth quarter: J.J. Redick scored 11 points on 6 shots and Keyon Dooling dished 7 assists in the period, finishing with 9 on the game. The only non-rotation player not to see action in the fourth was James Augustine, who didn't make the most of his four first-half minutes. Pat Garrity got the call instead.

Be sure to check out Brian Schmitz's recap at the Orlando Sentinel, which sheds some light on the Magic's free-agent preferences this summer. You might be surprised by what team president Bob Vander Weide thinks about Jameer Nelson.

So the Magic won and managed to rest their starters. SUCCESS. Let's see if they can do the same in the season finale against Washington this evening.

COOKIE MONSTER is ready for the Magic's playoff series with the Raptors to begin. Are you?
NYCMagicFan

Today's news post features playoff prediction posts and reactions to the forthcoming Magic/Raptors postseason matchup...

• If you want to show you believe in Magic, you might consider using one of these signature images from NYCMagicFan. Brian Cook and Maurice Evans aren't available, sadly. However, COOKIE MONSTER is!
• Here's the Playoffs page on the Magic's official website. The theme is BLUE & WHITE IGNITE.
• A FanHouse post by Tom Ziller that details why 10 NBA teams are legitimate contenders this season. For what it's worth, the Magic are one of those teams; the Raptors are not. I'm just saying.
• Ziller Stuff the Magic Dragon writes about why the Magic will win the championship
• Basketbawful, writing at Deadspin, discusses how the controversial ending to last night's Cavaliers/76ers game impacted the Eastern playoff picture.
• Vincent Thomas of SLAM previews the Eastern playoffs. He picks the Magic to win in 6 games, citing the Raptors' over-reliance on European players ("This is not FIBA") as his reason. Note that in the first draft of this post, published before the bracket was set, Thomas picked the 76ers to upset the Magic.
• T. Jose Caldeford thinks the Dwight Howard-versus-Chris Bosh matchup makes for the most compelling Eastern Conference playoff story:

  There will be no other series in the East where two great players will be going at each other on both ends of the floor (Arenas and James don't match up against each other), and furthermore, this is a match up about different styles of play, about quickness and well-roundedness against overwhelming size and strength.

  Hard to disagree with that assessment.

• JasonLynx posted this interesting thread at the MagicMadness forums. The Raptors lost their season series against the other Eastern contenders; the Magic won or tied all theirs.

Stay tuned to 3QC for more Orlando Magic playoffs coverage. I imagine we'll kick-off the site's relaunch on Friday with some playoff discussion in an open thread. I've already started going over some numbers. Sound good?

Good. See you tonight versus Atlanta. Go Magic.

	vs.
37-43		50-30
Philips Arena
7:00 PM
Sun Sports, NBA TV
Probable starters:
Mike Bibby	PG	Jameer Nelson
Joe Johnson	SG	Maurice Evans
Josh Smith	SF	Hedo Turkoglu
Marvin Williams	PF	Rashard Lewis
Al Horford	C	Dwight Howard
Season series:
10 Dec 2007: Hawks 98, Magic 87
10 Mar 2008: Magic 123, Hawks 112
22 Mar 2008: Hawks 98, Magic 90

The Magic get a chance to even the score against the Hawks tonight when they meet at the Philips Arena. Atlanta the only team in the East this season that has a winning record against the Magic; the thirteen other teams in the conference have either lost or tied the season-series. In light of that, I decided to take a look at the four factors to see why the Hawks seem to have our number.

Puzzling. Versus Atlanta, we shoot about the same and commit fewer turnovers, so what accounts for the huge drop in offensive efficiency as compared to our regular-season numbers? Poor free-throw shooting. We are an atrocious 46-of-76 from the stripe against the Hawks this year, or 60.5%. If we shot free throws at our regular-season clip, 72.2%, we would have scored 8 more points against the Hawks.

Through the three games in this series, the Hawks are +8. Ouch.

So yes indeed, our guys need to have their focus at the foul-line tonight if they hope to earn their 51st victory of the season. They'll also have to find some way to stop Joe Johnson, whose scoring output has increased (24, 27, 34) in each game against the Magic. Maurice Evans and Keith Bogans have their work cut out for them.

Speaking of defense, let's take a similar look at the Hawks' numbers to see on what else the Magic should focus on the other end of the floor...

There doesn't seem to be much wrong with our team defense against the Hawks this season. We've done a commendable job keeping Atlanta off the offensive glass and off the foul line. Our biggest problem has been defending the three-point line. Closing out the Hawks' shooters, especially Johnson and backcourt-mate Mike Bibby, should be another priority for us. Given our abysmal late-game defense against Minnesota on Friday night, I can't say I believe in our ability to do that.

Tipoff's at 7. Go Magic.

UPDATE: Brian Schmitz's preview at the Sentinel says that Stan Van Gundy will "slightly reduce" the minutes of Hedo Turkoglu, Rashard Lewis, and Dwight Howard tonight. Interesting. Free James Augustine!

Fifty is nifty. Here's Mike's recap. - BQR

For the first time since the 1995-'96 season, the Magic have achieved 50 victories in a season, thanks to a 104-84 victory over the Bulls.  The Magic led from start to finish and put the Bulls away in the fourth quarter while leading by as many as 24 points as they outscored Chicago 22-10 in the final period.  The Magic led 36-24 at the end of the first quarter as they shot 11 of 14 (78.6%), including 5 of 7 from 3 pt range.  Chicago cut the Magic lead to 53-48 at the half and trailed 82-74 after three quarters before the Magic put the game away in the final period.

Hedo Turkoglu was the overall star of the game for the Magic, as he scored 24 points with 8 assists, 4 rebounds, and 3 steals.  Dwight Howard was a big factor down low again, scoring 13 first quarter points and finished with 19 points in just three quarters.  Even though he attempted just four field goals, Howard was fouled repeatedly trying to shoot down low and made a very respectable 13 of 17 free throws.

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