Not to pile on Otis Smith, but the Magic are the only Eastern Conference team currently over .500 not to make at least one roster move to improve itself in the past month. To recap:

1. Boston Celtics (44-12)
   • Sign forward P.J. Brown out of retirement
   • Sign free-agent guard Sam Cassell (bought-out by the Los Angeles Clippers, a decision with which ClipperSteve does not agree)
2. Detroit Pistons (42-16)
   • Acquire guard Juan Dixon from the Toronto Raptors for center Primoz Brezec
   • Sign free-agent center Theo Ratliff (bought-out by the Minnesota Timberwolves)
3. Orlando Magic (37-23)
4. Toronto Raptors (32-24)
   • Acquire center Primoz Brezec from the Detroit Pistons for guard Juan Dixon
5. Cleveland Cavaliers (32-26)
   • Acquire forwards Joe Smith and Ben Wallace from the Chicago Bulls for foward Drew Gooden and guard Larry Hughes
   • Acquire forward Wally Szczerbiak and guard Delonte West from the Seattle SuperSonics for forwards Donyell Marshall and Ira Newble

Okay, maybe the Raptors getting Brezec from the Pistons doesn't count, but the fact remains: the teams around us are at least trying to improve, and we aren't. The Magic, as constituted the day of the trade deadline, were certainly not talented enough to defeat Boston, Detroit, or Toronto in a seven-game series. Now? They're arguably not talented enough to take down Cleveland, either. Even more troublesome is the fact that Toronto and Cleveland are potential first-round playoff opponents for us, which makes the possibility of an early vacation for us much more immediate.

As MME wrote at Bold 'n' Blue, the Magic are the only team in the NBA this season to beat Boston and Detroit twice each. However, one win against each of those teams came on a game-winning shot, and another came down to a missed last-second shot by the opponent. Only one, the most recent victory over the Pistons, was decisive by any stretch of the imagination.

On the day of the trade deadline, I considered Detroit the most formidable of any of these plus-.500 teams. Now that Boston has added two talented, savvy, playoff-proven veterans, I'm even more frightened of them. In last season's playoffs, Detroit's Chris Webber and Dale Davis (who no longer play for the Pistons) hacked Dwight Howard into a funk he could not shake. They intimidated him. The Celtics now have P.J. Brown, who can similarly pester Dwight. Celtics coach Doc Rivers can also dust-off Scot Pollard, who is good for six fouls a game. Meanwhile, Sam Cassell has 115 games of playoff experience, and still has the skills to pick-apart younger point guards; see this season's 35-point undressing of the Pacers' Jamaal Tinsley for proof.

Theo Ratliff is finally healthy, and he gives the Pistons the same toughness that Davis and Webber provided them last year. He's still a good shot-blocker, and can be trusted in late-game situations; in the fourth quarter of Game 7 in a playoff series, with Rasheed Wallace fouled out, Pistons coach Flip Saunders will go with Ratliff over emerging youngster Amir Johnson 11 times out of 10.

Cleveland is similarly tougher with Ben Wallace and Joe Smith. Even with Wallace's declining skills, he's still more of a banger than Drew Gooden ever was or ever will be. Adding those two guys to a frontcourt that already boasted Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Anderson Varejao makes the Cavaliers a team built for hard-nosed playoff basketball. Also, they have LeBron James.

As for Toronto, they're already a better team. As ESPN.com's John Hollinger mentioned yesterday (Insider, although it's free for right now), Toronto has a better point differential than we do, and point differential is a better indicator of a team's ability that won-loss record is:

Let's put it more simply: The Raps aren't beating people, they're killing them. Toronto topped Milwaukee by 31, Washington by 39, Miami by 32, Minnesota by 23 and 22, New Jersey by 18, Orlando by 17, and New York by 23. In a 16-game stretch, half their games were blowout wins.

Sum it up and you'll see in that modest-looking 16-game stretch [during which Toronto is 10-6] the Raptors are outscoring opponents by an impressive 10 points per game.

Chris Bosh and Dwight Howard play well against each other, so the real difference-making factor for the Raptors in a series against us is the point guard tandem of Jose Calderon and T.J. Ford. There's no way that either Jameer Nelson or Keyon Dooling can shut both of those guys down; they get into the lane at will and have the three-point shooters to make defenses pay for collapsing on them. The Raptors, as a team, shoot 40% from beyond the arc, is tops in the NBA.

So should we just give up and concede the conference to these teams? No, of course not. We can beat any of these teams in a playoff series, but the odds are decidedly not in our favor. After reading this post by Matt at Hardwood Paroxysm, I decided to contact him to chat about D-League players who could help Orlando. Click "Permalink" below to read what he had to say.

Continue reading this post »

Flurry of activity today, most of it involving Turk.  

• Adam Hoff of Section F Sports believes the Magic are "doomed" because Dwight Howard doesn't get enough touches. Hoff does not mince words, calling the Magic's lack of a single good passer "a travesty." (Hat-tip: TrueHoop's Monday Bullets)

  [W]atching them play is just extremely frustrating. That is because they have this monster of a lowpost player yet he gets the ball once every 15 possessions or so. Now, I understand that Howard still delivers exceptional value even when he's not getting post feeds, because he dominates the boards, protects the rim, and draws defenders into the paint. That said, the fact remains that he's Orlando's best player. He should be getting the ball! There was a stretch in the fourth quarter in which Howard went nearly five minutes without receiving a pass (he did snare three offensive rebounds). When they finally did throw it to him, he absorbed a double team, spun baseline, and dunked over two help defenders. "Effortless" doesn't even begin to describe the move. Yet the Magic went right back to not passing to him again [....] I've never seen a team with such a poor understanding of its own strengths and weaknesses."

  • Oddly enough, a peek at Dwight's game log shows the Magic are 5-7 when he shoot 15 times or more, and 12-1 when he shoots 10 times or fewer. I suppose the latter fact is skewed by playing relatively limited minutes due to blowouts, but it seems to contradict Hoff's assertion that Dwight needs more shots.
• Hedo Turkoglu was named the Eastern Conference Player of the Week. Congratulations, Hedo!
• Brian Schmitz doesn't take kindly to people flooding his inbox with Jason Kidd trade proposals. Writes Schmitz, "Are the Magic really better off trying to land Kidd? Sounds like amateur GMs playing fantasy basketball. The Nets might be able to do better elsewhere." I'm not eager for the Magic to acquire Kidd -- he's the least-deserving All-Star this year, he's old, and he's overpaid -- but after reading Hoff's comments above, I agree the team should look into getting a better distributor.
• Celtics coach Doc Rivers, who will coach the Eastern Conference All-Stars this year, told Schmitz he voted for Turkoglu to be an All-Star reserve. I'll be surprised if Turk makes it, though. There are plenty of other deserving forwards in the East.
• Round 5 of the Blogger Most Valuable Player and Rookie of the Year poll is up. Jeremy from Pickaxe and Roll is hosting it this time. Check it out. Unsurprisingly, Dwight Howard's stock is dropping -- he's 4th, and I voted him 8th. I have the rather dubious distinction of being the only person who voted Kevin Durant lower than second.
• It appears as though Chris Webber is going to sign with the Golden State Warriors. The Magic are going to have to look elsewhere if they want an upgrade at power forward, although that's probably not a concern right now.

Lots of stuff came out over the weekend and I'm just now getting to it. Here we go:

• Fran Vazquez is not happy with his lack of playing time in Europe and is reportedly seeking a buyout so he can join the Magic. I'm not happy with this development at all. If he can't impress in Europe (5.7 points and 1.7 rebounds in 12 minutes per game), against competition inferior to the NBA, why would we think he could be successful here? Additionally, his buyout would cost millions of dollars, and I'm leery of paying that much money just so a player can join us. Also, we have 15 players on the roster, and I think James Augustine and Marcin Gortat are more likely to be difference-makers at the four position in the future. Why cut them to make room for Vazquez? It doesn't make sense to me. Let him sit at the end of Barcelona's bench. I don't care about him anymore. Can we move on, please?
• Although he's missed every game of the season so far, Tony Battie could be back in time for the playoffs. I'm glad that his rehab from shoulder surgery is going well, and his strong interior defense should really help us; the Magic were 4.7 points per 100 possessions better on defense when Battie was on the floor last year, according to 82games. There's no sense in rushing him back, though. If there's the slightest chance that he'll re-injure himself in the playoffs, we should sit him down. Of course, that's assuming that we even make the playoffs. Give Me The Rock says there's a 99.15% chance that will happen, but you never know.
• Fourteen-year veteran Chris Webber would consider playing for the Magic, but Otis Smith has no interest in signing him. As much as I hate to say it, I agree with Otis on this one. Webber is surely one of the best power forwards of all-time, but he's well past his prime now. Yes, he can still contribute -- 11.3 points and 6.7 rebounds for the Pistons last season -- but no, he's not what the Magic need. He's a poor defender, and defense is what we need most. I like Chris and it'd be a cool story if he signed with us, the team that originally drafted him, but I think there are better, more defensive-minded power forwards available.
• Dwight Howard, who is outspoken about his deep Christian faith, refuses to talk about his recently-born son, who was fathered out of wedlock. The Sentinel spoke with some marketing experts who believe that Howard's image may take a hit, but it's a minor issue. I agree, and I respect that Dwight wants to keep his personal life personal.

Here's an insightful quote from the Jazz' Kevin O'Connor, discussing his team's rebuilding philosophy with Bradford Doolittle:

We had a kind of a mantra, saying "No short-term gains for long-term losses." It's been used a lot before, but we really tried to work off that.

Certainly the Magic aren't in rebuilding mode, but there's a growing consensus that they need to make a move to acquire a true power forward before the playoffs. (Hat tip - Tom Ziller at Fanhouse)

So, what do you think about the Magic's power forward situation? Take part in the poll, and don't forget to explain your answer in the comments.

• The Magic continued their slide in Marc Stein's weekly NBA Power Rankings at ESPN. Last week, they were at no. 11,  which dropped them out of the top 10 for the first time since the preseason. This week, they check in at no. 13. Just for fun, I checked to see where the team stood at this time last season. Oddly enough, they were ranked 13th after 11 weeks last season, too. Check out Stein's comment from that entry:

  Road losses to Lakers, Suns showed young Magic can play with top teams. The trouble is beating them: Orlando has one win over a winning team since its 13-4 start.

  More checking reveals that story is similar this season. Since defeating the Warriors on December 3rd, the Magic have not beaten a winning team, unless you count a 97-92 victory at Houston on December 19th which dropped the Rockets to 12-13. New coach, new players, same result. What is it with this team?

• The Magic need a solid power forward. Fran Vazquez might have been that guy two years ago, but ESPN's Ian Whittel reports in today's Daily Dime that Vazquez might not be that guy, at least not given the way he's playing in Europe right now:

  "He is a real enigma," says one European-based NBA scout. "You never know what you are going to get with him. I saw him in one Euroleague game this season score 10 points in the first half, all on dunks. If you did not know who he was, you would have been blown away by him. Then, the next time you see him, he might play five minutes and not score a point. The bottom line is, I don't think he's a real smart player."

  An inconsistent and enigmatic power forward with a questionable basketball IQ. Remind you of anyone?

  The article goes on to mention that Vazquez and the Magic are in regular contact and that Vazquez likes the Magic's style of play.

  (Hat-tip to MagicMadness the poster at MagicMadness the forum for passing this story along)

• Speaking of power forwards, Chris Webber expects to be back in the NBA within 2 weeks. That's what he told a Sacramento TV station yesterday, anyway (Hat-tip: Ziller at FanHouse). I doubt Otis Smith will be in touch with C-Webb, though. Before he made the trade that brought Brian Cook and Maurice Evans over from the L.A. Lakers, Smith told the Orlando Sentinel's Brian Schmitz that he had no interest in any available free-agent power forwards. Given how awful Cook has been (2.2 points per game, 1 rebound per game, and .344 field goal shooting), and given that he's under contract for the next two seasons, and given that Webber would have only cost us $2 million or so for one season... that move doesn't look so wise now. You be the GM: Would you rather have Brian Cook for three seasons or Chris Webber for one? Keep in mind that you're a strong Eastern Conference team that expects to contend for a title for the next several seasons.  
• With a disastrous 1-3 road trip that saw his team surrender 100 points in each game, Stan Van Gundy is focusing intently on defense in practice today, writes Tim Povtak. The team won't have a chance to impress me with its defense until Saturday's game against Portland, though. We play the Bulls and the Bobcats this week, and they are not very good offensively: 27th and 22nd in Offensive Efficiency this season, respectively.
• In case you're interested in some other perspective on the weekend's games, check out Basketball John's recap and liveblog of the Magic/Jazz game; Biased Fan's recap of the Magic/Jazz game; and Pickaxe and Roll's recap of the Magic/Nuggets game.
• Hardwood Paroxysm's Play Call today featured a brief essay on the value of scoring in the NBA. Matt asked the writers of The Dream Shake, 3 Shades of Blue, and BlogABull for their thoughts. I also contributed to the discussion. Head on over there for some basketball philosophizing.

There should be more to add to this later, including the latest round of MVP/Rookie of the Year voting as determined by bloggers. If you're reading this post after 5 PM today, do not adjust your monitor; it's still Third Quarter Collapse you're reading. It just looks different. More details on that front later.

I just got back from work and got the startling news that the Magic have traded Trevor Ariza to the Los Angeles Lakers for Brian Cook and Maurice Evans. It's no secret that Trevor is was my favorite Magic player, so obviously I am upset to lose him.

I won't pretend to know much about the players we've received. I do know that Cook is a power-forward with a sweet shooting stroke, like a younger, better Pat Garrity. Maurice Evans is a three-point shooter and defender in the Keith Bogans mode: basketball-reference says as much in its "most similar at age" section on Evans' profile.

The feature player in this deal is Cook, whose contract does not expire until after the 2008/2009 season, with a player option for 2009/2010. In that respect, his contract mirrors that of Hedo Turkoglu. The deal doesn't make sense when you consider that the Magic already have Tony Battie, the player for whom Cook will fill in, on the payroll until 2010. Why saddle ourselves with an unnecessary contract? We only needed a power forward rental, a veteran who would play for us this season, then make his way somewhere else; Chris Webber and Dale Davis would have been ideal.

I'll have much more to say about this trade at a later date, but I have to cut this post short so I can work on a very important paper. Please post your feelings on the trade in the comments or in the diaries. Don't forget to vote in the poll!

Magic fans' first opportunity to see the team's newest editions in  person will be Friday against Charlotte. No word yet on if Cook and Evans will be available tomorrow night against the Spurs.

Because we had 15 players on our roster, we cannot take back more players than we trade away. Thus, the Magic were forced to waive Bo Outlaw.

UPDATE: Here's more from the Magic's press release. Brackets are mine, parentheses are from the original release -

"Brian (Cook) helps bolster our frontcourt," said [Otis] Smith. "He is a power forward who shoots the ball extremely well, while also bringing added toughness to our roster. Maurice (Evans) is a tremendous athlete, a solid defender and capable of playing multiple positions. Both Brian and Maurice fit in very well with what we are trying to accomplish."

"If you were the owner of a franchise, would you rather have LeBron James or Dwight Howard?" Steve Weinman knows the answer, and it shouldn't surprise Magic fans.
Photo by  Eugene Hoshiko, the Associated Press

• UPDATE: Steve Weinman of Taking it to the Rack outlines the reasons why he would choose Dwight Howard to build his team around. D-12 beat out LeBron James and Chris Paul. There's some spirited discussion going on in the comments. To me, Dwight and LeBron are the only two players who should be seriously considered, and you can't lose with either of them. I'd go with Dwight, just because he plays center, and good centers are hard to find.
  • Also check out this FanHouse post from August, in which Matt Watson explains why Dwight is 8th.
• Anyone could have told you over the summer that the Magic would have a difficult schedule this season. But next week might be the toughest stretch yet. After the Nets tonight, we face the Celtics at home on Sunday, then fly to New Orleans to take on the Hornets on Monday, then face the defending-champion Spurs in San Antonio on Wednesday. Those three teams are ranked 1-3 in John Hollinger's Power Rankings, which are derived from a mathematical formula. Playing three games in four nights is tough enough, but playing three games in four nights against arguably the best three teams in basketball? That's downright brutal.
• More from Watson: Why Chris Webber would be a good fit with the Magic:

  This isn't the first time the Magic have talked with Webber, but if he has any interest in picking up a few million extra dollars before calling it a career, this is probably the best offer he's going to get. Plus, he'd be able to put his passing skills in the post to good use, dishing the ball down low to Howard and finding Lewis either slashing or outside for a three.

• Brian Schmitz points out that the Magic have exhibited mental toughness in each of their road wins this season. That's great and all, but we wouldn't have to exhibit mental toughness if we didn't blow leads to inferior teams.
• NBA All-Star voting has started. Click here cast your vote on NBA.com. Don't forget to include Jameer, Hedo, Rashard, and Dwight on your East ballot!
• The Sentinel's George Diaz wants to be able to watch the Magic on TV. Welcome to the club, George.

Since Tony Battie went down with a torn rotator cuff, the Magic have been wanting for help on the front line. The Magic need help at the center and power forward positions if they expect to advance very far in the playoffs. Rebounding in particular is an issue. The starting frontcourt of Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis, and Hedo Turkoglu has size -- each is at least 6'10" tall -- but only Howard can be counted on to rebound consistently. And the Magic haven't been getting much help on the boards from the guard positions, although Keith Bogans did haul in 9 last night. Essentially, we need rebounding, and we need it now.

How bad is the rebounding situation? We've managed to haul in a mere 23% of our missed shots, well below the average of 27%. Additionally, we've allowed our opponents to get 31% of their misses. Offensive rebounding is second only to field-goal percentage in importance to winning games. Thus, if they expect to win many games this season, the Magic need to toughen up on the boards.

All this background brings me to this free story on ESPN Insider, which details the 10 best available unemployed players, many of which are big men. Here are the bigs on the list, with their most recent rebounding statistics:

1. Anderson Varejao (11.3 per 40)
2. D.J. Mbenga (5.6 per 40)
3. P.J. Brown (9.5 per 40)
4. Chris Webber (9.6 per 40)
5. Dale Davis (11.8 per 40)
6. Chris Andersen (10.9 per 40)
7. Vitaly Potapenko (6.7 per 40)

Of those players, the one who interests me most is the ancient seasoned Dale Davis. He'll be 39 years old in March, but he's still a talented rebounder. More importantly, he would bring attitude to a soft, finesse-based Magic team that could use some toughness off the bench.

Don't worry about his lack of speed holding back the offense. Despite promises to run more often, the Stan Van Gundy-coached Magic are are 27th in the league in pace, using just 88.7 possessions per game. Last year, under Brian Hill, the Magic used 88.5 possessions per game. Dale Davis was able to fit in just fine with Detroit's slow, methodical offense last year; he'd do alright here too.

But I don't expect Otis Smith to act in haste to sign a big man. He's still waiting to hear back from the league about a medical injury exception, which would pay half of Tony Battie's salary this season, giving the Magic $2.7 million to spend on an available free-agent. Given that Brown and Webber won't play for such a low salary; and given that Mbenga and Potapenko aren't great rebounders; and given that Varejao and Andersen have their rights owned by other teams, Davis is the only player who seems to make sense for the Magic.

Of course, they could go the alternate route by giving minutes to Marcin Gortat and James Augustine. But I wouldn't advise that. The Magic need rebounding now, and Davis could step in immediately and provide that. There's no learning curve with Dale. Why not offer him the veterans' minimum, cut Bo Outlaw, and see what he can do?

Brian Schmitz is back at his Magic BasketBlog after a summer-long hiatus, and he's been giving fairly regular updates throughout Magic training camp. Now, he gives us the fairly surprising news that only Rashard Lewis and Dwight Howard have been guaranteed spots in the starting lineup:

According to guard J.J. Redick, Van Gundy said that only Dwight Howard (duh) and Rashard Lewis (double duh) have starting jobs. Not going to sit $200 million worth of players on the pine.

That leaves one forward spot open (whichever one Lewis doesn't play), the shooting-guard job and. . .. hmmmmmm....the point-guard position.

I was under the impression that Jameer Nelson was going to be The Man at point guard, despite his poor showing last season. Sounds like Carlos Arroyo and Keyon Dooling are going to have a pretty intense camp, as they figure to be the other two players in contention to run the point this season.

Schmitz's projected starting lineup is Nelson and Trevor Ariza at the guard spots, Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu at the forwards, and Dwight Howard at center. I can't say I disagree with that, although I wouldn't mind seeing Turk traded somewhere for big-man help. Tony Battie, the veteran workhorse, is likely out for the year and Chris Webber, the best available big, told ESPN he's only considering returning to the Pistons.

More training camp news as it happens.