This summer, 3QC will take a look back on each Magic player's 2007-2008 season. The first nine posts will evaluate, on an individual basis and in alphabetical order, the players who played in at least 20% of the team's total minutes; the final post will briefly evaluate the five players who appeared in less than 20% of the team's minutes.

Today, our focus is Dwight Howard.

Dwight Howard became the youngest rebounding champion in history; solidified himself as a perennial All-Star, making his second straight appearance and first start; set career-highs in not a few statistical categories; proved he could be the cornerstone of a contending team; and won the Slam Dunk contest in jaw-dropping fashion. What more can the Magic and their fans ask of him?

Plenty, it turns out. Even after four years in the league, Howard still isn't comfortable creating his own shot on the low block. Most of his shots were uncontested dunks, and although he showed improved touch with his left hand, he still tends to fade away on his hook shots rather than jumping straight up. When frustrated or unfocused, he looks positively baffled with the ball, throwing his shots entirely too hard off the glass. And no matter what the situation, he's a horrible free throw shooter. He shows excellent form up until the release, when he snaps his wrist too far to his left or right rather than straight-through.

As for the jump shot that's been in the works since Howard entered the league... it's still not finished. Howard rarely shot outside the immediate basket area, and he'll need to increase his range -- if only to 10 feet -- so he has something he can use when opponents force him away from the basket and he doesn't have an open teammate to whom to pass. It would also help him become a factor late in games; the Magic's only crunch-time options are, in order: Hedo Turkoglu, Rashard Lewis, and Jameer Nelson.

On the intangibles scale, he showed no inclination to lead by example, despite his status as the team's captain and best player.

But, at 22 years old, Howard still has plenty of time to refine his offensive skills. And he does most everything else well. He earned All-Defensive Second Team honors, which were well-deserved. Although he has a tendency to goaltend, he's still an excellent one-on-one and help defender. Indeed, the only easy buckets opposing centers get when Howard plays come as a result of Howard leaving them to contest an opponent's shot.

We can harp on his offensive shortcomings and mental lapses all we like, but the fact remains: Howard's the best young center in the game, arguably the best since Tim Duncan circa 1997, and he's the only reason Orlando even joins Boston and Detroit in the discussion of the East's elite teams. He's only going to get better, and he deserves our respect.

Look out, league.

Yesterday, virtually every major basketblog linked to this YouTube video, a modification of the trailer for The Dark Knight in which Kobe Bryant plays Batman and Kevin Garnett plays the Joker. The timing of this video seems strange to me because I started working on this Batman-themed post for this site's Diversions section earlier this week. So, here it is: selected NBA teams compared to Batman villains.

The Detroit Pistons are Two-Face

Billups photo by Michael Conroy, the Associated Press; Two-Face action figure by DC Direct; Wallace photo by M. Spencer Green, the Associated Press

One of comics' most tragic villains, Two-Face was once a celebrated district attorney named Harvey Dent. When crime boss Sal Maroni threw acid on Dent during a trial, it scarred Dent's visage and psyche. Now a man divided between good and evil, and flips his trademark scarred coin to determine how he'll behave. The Pistons have a similar balance in their personalities: they have Chauncey Billups, team captain and winner of the NBA's citizenship award, on the "good" side and Rasheed Wallace, owner of the league's most notorious temper, on the "bad" side (although he does good things, too). And, like Dent, they have two distinct attitudes toward their craft. When they're motivated, they're one of the league's best teams; when not motivated, they lose to the Knicks by nearly 30 points. Their frustrating inconsistency mirrors Two-Face's refusal to seek treatment for himself, despite Bruce Wayne's repeated offers of support.

The Los Angeles Lakers are The Joker

Bryant photo by Ric Francis, the Associated Press; Joker art by Doug Mahnke, DC Comics

Ignore the fact that the Lakers and the Joker share a favorite color (purple, although the Lakers have a different name for it), and the fact that the silver screen's original Joker sits courtside at Lakers games: the similarities between the Lakers and the Joker are uncanny. Both entities are icons in their respective idioms, the Lakers for their dynasties and the Joker for being so damned entertaining for so long (he first appeared in 1940). Both entities are of the "love to hate" variety. And both entities enjoy toying with their victims before they strike. The Joker kills whomever he wants whenever he feels like it, and does so with glee just as the Lakers (and Kobe Bryant in particular - scroll down to the paragraph that begins with the words, "Consider that Denver") are similarly inclined to relish their kills victories.

And if Kobe Bryant himself is the Joker, then Sasha Vujacic (far right) is Harley Quinn.

The Phoenix Suns are The Penguin

O'Neal photo by Ross D. Franklin, the Associated Press; Penguin art by Simone Bianchi, DC Comics

[Insert Shaquille O'Neal fat joke here].

The Suns, before they acquired O'Neal, were one of the league's most entertaining teams because they relied on coach Mike D'Antoni's fast-paced, "Seven Seconds or Less" offense. And, for most of his criminal life, the Penguin employed trademark trickery of his own: weaponized umbrellas and trained birds. When the Suns realized they wouldn't win a title playing that style, they traded their biggest trick (Shawn Marion, a do-it-all forward) for a more traditional player (O'Neal, a low-post center). Similarly, the Penguin abandoned his gadgets when he saw the opportunity to become wealthy a more traditional way: through organized crime. He cast aside his umbrellas and birds and opened the Iceberg Lounge, a "legitimate," high-class nightclub in which he publicly gladhands Gotham City's well-to-do while privately engages in shady dealings with mobsters.

The San Antonio Spurs are Ra's al Ghul

Popovich photo by Getty Images; al Ghul art from Batman: The Animated Series

Ra's al Ghul -- whose name translates as "The Demon's Head" -- is arguably Batman's most formidable foe. A master strategist, he managed to kidnap Robin and deduce Batman's secret identity in his first-ever appearance just as the Spurs were immediately successful in winning 56 games during Tim Duncan's first season with them. And, like the Spurs, al Ghul may be misunderstood. He wants what most people want: a clean, healthy planet in which to live, just as the Spurs want only to win a title. But the means al Ghul uses to achieve his end (terrorism, genocide) are certainly villainous, just as the Spurs' tactics (flopping, cheap-shots) are questionable. Additionally, al Ghul is immortal: he has lived for centuries by periodically immersing himself in Lazarus Pits, which are the DC Universe's equivalent to fountains of youth. Similarly, the Spurs have remained competitive for the last decade, having the highest winning percentage of any team in all four major North American sports over that timeframe.

The biggest Magic news of the day concerns Otis Smith. The team extended his contract, along with that of assistant GM Dave Twardzik, but did not disclose the terms of the extension. However, Brian Schmitz reports that Otis' deal is for three years, with the fourth year a team option. In a separate post, he writes that it's time Otis backs-up his talk of bringing a title to Orlando:

He had posters of the NBA trophy plastered throughout the team's practice facility and in their arena locker room. Players are parroting Smith's message.

It's a terrific goal and you have to like the confidence . . .. but Smith can't simply tease the faithful with championship chatter.

He's on the record --- and on the clock.

The ticking begins loudly, and in earnest, next season when all-star center Dwight Howard's five-year, $85-million maximum contract kicks in.

[....]

Smith has work to do, and little cap room left to cut the gap between the Magic and the aging Pistons and the Celtics.

He must find more help for Howard. The Magic need more defense, more big bodies and, to hear critics tell it, more point-guard assistance.

Yes indeed, the time is now for Otis to prove himself as GM. So far, he hasn't made too many personnel blunders (as long as you don't count the draft). But he hasn't distinguished himself, either. With nearly $230 million owed to Howard, Rashard Lewis, and Jameer Nelson over the next five years, Smith doesn't have much flexibility, so he'll have to prove himself by making smaller tweaks to surround his core with complementary players. But he can't do it alone. Most great teams got to where they are by fleecing incompetent GMs:

• the Celtics got Kevin Garnett, one of the best power forwards of all-time, for Al Jefferson and change;
• the Lakers got Pau Gasol without giving up anyone in their nine-man rotation;
• the Pistons got Rasheed Wallace for a first-round draft pick and assorted riffraff (including former Magic guard Chucky Atkins).

The only exception to that rule is the (now-fallen) Spurs dynasty (?) which lucked into the right to draft Tim Duncan, then drafted smartly by getting Tony Parker (28th, 2001) and Manu Ginobili (57th, 1999). And as much as most of us like Otis, we don't think of him as an R.C. Buford-type talent evaluator.

Not yet, anyway. But if he's able to draft well this year, and juggle his own free agents, Otis might establish himself as an above-average GM. While he hasn't done anything astonishing yet -- jettisoning Steve Francis, his awful attitude, and his ridiculous contract was Smith's best move, and that involved Isiah Thomas' incompetence -- he hasn't done anything worth firing him over, either. And with the team on the verge of greatness once more, it'd be unfair of the Magic to fire him.

Not exactly a ringing endorsement from me, sure, but don't get me wrong: I still believe in Otis. And so do the Magic, evidently.

And speaking of the draft, plenty of mock-draft sites updated today. Interestingly, four of the ten sites we're tracking at 3QC have the Magic selecting Memphis guard Chris Douglas-Roberts with the 22nd pick. DraftExpress thinks he is, at best, Jerry Stackhouse; that he's the best NCAA junior in the draft; and that he's the third-best shooting guard. Not bad, no?

Carlos Arroyo looks none too pleased during the second half of the Magic's game against the Spurs on Tuesday night. Arroyo scored 17 points, but the Magic fell to the Spurs, 107-97.
Photo by Phelan M. Ebanhack, the Associated Press

When Jameer Nelson (chin contusion) and Hedo Turkoglu (sprained wrist) went down in the first period -- here's John Denton's report -- our guys knew they had to step up, and they did:

• Keyon Dooling responded off the Magic bench with 19 points.
• Carlos Arroyo added 17.
• Rashard Lewis put together another fine game and played Hedo's usual role of aggressor, with 24 points on 7-of-8 shooting from the line.
• Dwight Howard piled-up 24 points and 21 boards on the league's best center.

But not even those fantastic offensive efforts were enough to hold-off the defending champion Spurs. We held an 8-point lead in the third quarter before San Antonio scored 15 straight points, quickly silencing what was a raucous Amway Arena crowd and demonstrating why it has won four of the last seven NBA titles. We had no answer for Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, or Michael Finley (?!), wasting an unusually solid bench effort -- our reserves outscored the Spurs', 42-40 -- and an uncharacteristically horrific shooting night from Tony Parker (4-of-13).

Our guard play undid us tonight. Arroyo and Dooling scored alright themselves, but our other guards combined to score 11 points (3-of-15 FGs, 2-of-6 3FGs, 3-of-7 FTs) in 63 minutes. Sure, Jameer Nelson's absence skews that figure a bit, but that doesn't change the collective ineffectiveness of Keith Bogans, Maurice Evans, and J.J. Redick. On the other end, Finley's corpse played out of its his body mind, scoring the first 2 points of the game -- and the first 2 of his season-high 24 -- on a give-and-go with Tim Duncan. The Magic are obviously taking notes on how to run their offense through a big-man, but Dwight has neither the court vision (to pass out of the post effectively) nor the shooting touch (to keep defenses honest when he's pushed off the block) to be a viable post playmaker in the Bill Walton/Lakers Shaquille O'Neal/Duncan mold.

This loss drops us to 46-27 on the season and losers of 3 out of our last four games... and 0-2 in games I predicted we'd win. Hopefully, a few days' rest will get us going again, as we have to get motivated to face the Bucks on Friday night. Hedo and Jameer, we're counting on you two to get healthy.

Other notes

• It was a night for season-highs. In addition to Finley's and Dooling's scoring outputs, Evans posted a career-high 7 assists.
• Howard had another 20-20 game, his first since March 1st versus New York. His previous 20-20 effort came February 13th versus Denver. Perhaps not coincidentally, Stan Van Gundy called Howard out before that game as well.
• The Spurs were called for 18 fouls and the Magic were called for 25, yet the Magic shot more free throws.
• Evidence that the plus/minus stat doesn't accurately tell the whole story when it's applied to only one player: Howard was a minus-14 and Arroyo a minus-15; Parker was a game-best +19. Don't trust it unless it's applied to a unit of players.

I'm not quite sure what to make of this game on the whole, though. On the one hand, we only lost to the World Champions by 10 points even though we were without two of our top-four players; on the other hand, it took superhuman efforts from Arroyo, Dooling, Howard, and Lewis -- not to mention an impressive 41-35 rebounding advantage -- just to pull to lose by 10... at home... when we shot more free throws. Your thoughts?

	vs.
46-26		47-23
Amway Arena
7:00 PM
FSN Florida
Probable starters:
Jameer Nelson	PG	Tony Parker
Maurice Evans	SG	Michael Finley
Hedo Turkoglu	SF	Bruce Bowen
Rashard Lewis	PF	Fabricio Oberto
Dwight Howard	C	Tim Duncan
21 Nov 2007: Spurs 128, Magic 110

The last time we played the Spurs, they pretty much killed us. How great were they? Well, we shot 56% from the field, hit 10 threes, and turned the ball over only 11 times... and we still lost by 18. The Spurs had just 3 turnovers, the Tim Duncan/Manu Ginobili/Tony Parker trio combined for 79 points on 30-of-56 shooting, and the team kept us off the offensive glass.

The biggest key for a victory tonight is containing Ginobili and Parker, which is easier said than done. Unless our point guards ate a metric ton of Wheaties this morning, they're not going to stop those two from getting into the lane, meaning Dwight Howard will need to protect the rim. He's about due, as he hasn't reached the three-block mark in a single game since March 15th vs. Indiana.

Interesting sideplot to watch: how Spurs backup center Kurt Thomas fares in black-and-silver. I was pissed when the Magic weren't able to acquire him from the SuperSonics at the trade deadline, but Seattle GM Sam Presti, who cut his teeth in the Spurs' organization, seemed determined to send Thomas to his pals in San Antonio. Recall the Spurs shipped Brent Barry and Francisco Elson to Seattle for Thomas. The SuperSonics cut Barry, who then waited the mandatory thirty-day period to re-sign with the Spurs. You'll have a hard time convincing me -- or any reasonable NBA observer -- that the Barry waiving wasn't pre-meditated. Whatever. Barry's return will not drastically alter the crazy Western Conference landscape. He's not that good anymore, but that didn't stop him from going nuts on us last time out. Ugh.

Tipoff's at 7 on FSN Florida, which sucks, because I know a lot of us are eager to see how we play against the defending World Champions. But it's not all bad: tonight's game is the last one televised on FSN for the rest of the season, meaning most Orlando residents won't have any trouble seeing the remaining 10 games of 07/08.

Check out Pounding the Rock for more on the Spurs.

Go Magic.

	vs.
41-24		21-41
Amway Arena
7:00 PM
Sun Sports HD
Probable starters:
Jameer Nelson	PG	Brevin Knight
Maurice Evans	SG	Quinton Ross
Hedo Turkoglu	SF	Corey Maggette
Rashard Lewis	PF	Al Thornton
Dwight Howard	C	Josh Powell
Season series:
9 Jan 2008: Magic 113, Clippers 106

Given the heaps of praise piled upon the Los Angeles Lakers, it's easy for some people to forget that they share a building with the Clippers. For more on this criminally underexposed team, I checked-in with Steve from Clips Nation.

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3QC: The Clippers are in a bad way right now. Elton Brand and Shaun Livingston, two of their top-four players, have yet to play this season due to injury. Another top-four player, Corey Maggette, is worth more money than he's earning and may leave via free-agency this summer. If you could only bring one of those players back next season, which one would you choose? And why do you think that player is Clippers' key to building a winning franchise?

Steve: There's no question who everyone in ClipsNation would bring back - it's Elton Brand.  And it's not close.  I've wondered at times why other teams seemed to weather prolonged absences of superstar players a little better than the Generic Clippers (no Brand).  I've come to the conclusion that Elton Brand, as the best all around player on the Clippers - the best scorer, the best rebounder, the best post defender, the best locker room influence, the best leader - is just that much more important to the Clipers than, say, Gilbert Arenas is to the Wizards.  The Wizards replace Arenas with Antonio Daniels and there team defense gets better and their turnovers go down, while their offense definitely suffers.  The Clippers replace Brand with Tim Thomas and every damn thing gets worse.  EVERY DAMN THING.

In fact, I'd go so far as to say that if Brand isn't coming back, don't bother re-signing Maggette.  With both of them gone, they'd be far enough under the cap to actually sign somebody (not that there's anyone out there, but still).  If Brand isn't going to be here, get out the dynamite, blow it up.

Livingston is a bit of an exception - because of his uncertain status, he can probably be retained inexpensively.  I don't expect him to play anywhere else next season - he and the Clippers have been through too much together.  But he's a restricted free agent, and it remains to be seen how much he signs for and for how long.

The good news is that Brand is not going anywhere.  He's chomping at the bit to get back on the floor this season, and would be playing on this trip if Coach would let him.  And the reason he wants to play is to start getting the team ready for next season.  He's committed to staying with the Clippers, and has said as much.  It may only be for the final year of this contract (he has one more year, with an opt out this summer), but he'll be a Clipper next season, and so will Livingston.  Maggette is a tougher call.  I really have no idea what will happen with him.

3QC: The Magic and the Clippers have something in common in that they both have veteran players having career-years this season. We have Hedo Turkoglu; you have Chris Kaman. When completely healthy, how far can Kaman lead the Clippers? Is he All-Star material?

Steve: Is he All Star material?  Well, the short answer is yes.  He might well have been an All Star this season had he not been playing on a last place team.  But I think we're finding out that he's not really cut out to be the main man - as the double teams have become more aggressive, his offensive numbers have definitely suffered.  He has certainly shown that he will be a defensive and rebounding force in this league for years.  He's third in the league in both rebounding and blocked shots, and maintaining that position despite playing hurt for the last month.  He also is a surprisingly good on ball defender - he does ok on the pick and roll, he can cover more mobile centers - he's not just a Camby style free safety loading up on weak side blocked shots.  In the absence of Brand he's had to take the tough low post assignments all season long, and he's still managed to be third in the league in blocks.  (This is another reason Brand will be back - he definitely wants to play alongside this new version of Kaman.  Brand has been top 10 in rebounding and blocked shots for years.  If they can manage to be top 10 in those categories in the same front court it will be the first time since David Robinson and Tim Duncan - and those guys did alright together.)

This isn't actually a question; I just want to give you the opportunity to tell Magic fans, and other 3QC readers on the East Coast, how awesome Al Thornton is.

He's pretty awesome.  Since I see him every night, I forget what a secret he is around the league.  But never fear - everyone got to see Jeff Green in the Rookie game, so there's that.  The fact that Al Thornton wasn't selected for the rookie game; the fact that he lost out to Luis Scola for February Rookie of the Month (Scola averaged 11.7 points and 5.9 rebounds while Thornton went for 17.4 and 6.3); well, that's just life in ClipsNation.

While many rookies have been hitting the Wall, Thornton has been steadily improving.  He averaged 6 points in November, 8 in December, 13 in January and the aforementioned 17.6 in February, which he's pretty much maintained into March.  He's also shooting better and rebounding more.  In 21 games since January 30, he's been in double figures 18 times, gone for 20 or more 9 times, and had two games of 33.  He's a freak of an athlete, and can score in a variety of ways.  He's got a deadly first step and the ability to finish around the basket; he can create space for his jump shot; he has NBA three-point range (31 for 87 on the season); and he's got a motor that just doesn't stop.  The athleticism in particular is very welcome on the Clippers.  Brand is one of the less athletic superstars in the NBA.  Outside of Maggette, the Clippers don't have anyone that qualifies as a flyer, let alone a high flyer.  Thornton's myriad dunks this season, over Vince Carter, Chris Bosh, Josh Smith and Mikki Moore among others, are the only things getting the Clippers onto SportsCenter these days.

Perhaps most amazing for a rookie is that he's been the go to scorer in the fourth quarter of several wins.  Against New Jersey he out-dueled Carter in the fourth.  He scored 9 crucial fourth quarter points while being defended by Bosh in a close win on the road in Toronto.  And last week against the Kings he nailed a nasty step back 20 footer on the Clippers final possession to send the game into overtime.  He scored 22 points in the fourth period and overtimes combined in that game, which the Clippers eventually won.  How many rookies are getting the ball in key late game possessions this season?  I'll answer my own question - two.  Kevin Durant and Al Thornton.

The duel emergences of Thornton and Kaman are definitely the silver lining on this cumulonimbus of a season in ClipsNation.

3QC: I like to end these Q-and-A sessions positively, so I wanted to compliment your team on its wonderful uniforms. What are your thoughts on the Clippers' on-court attire? I think the blue alternate uniforms are among the best in the entire league.

Really, that's it?  That's the most positive you can be?  "Nice unis."

I'm no expert by any means, but this is probably an area where the Clippers non-innovative ways have benefited them.  While most of the NBA has been exploring the color pallet (teal?  really?), designing ever more detailed logos, and adding black to pretty much everything (it was cool when the Bulls did it - it's just lame for the T-Wolves), the Clippers have remained with the most primary of primary colors, and logos involving nothing more than letters and a basketball.  As the pendulum has swings back to old school unis, it turns out the Clippers have been there all along.  That blue road uniform is a case in point - pretty much a straightforward royal blue uni with the word Los Angeles on the front.  But name another team that uses that color at all?  Of course, I don't think they've won while wearing that uniform in like two seasons, so I'm beginning to hate it.  But it looks sharp.

------------------------------------------------------

Many thanks to ClipperSteve for those thorough responses. I meant no harm in commending the Clippers for their beautiful uniforms, but I do indeed see now how that could come across as a slight. Apologies to Steve and to Clippers fans for that.

Check out my answers to his questions -- including my take on the Magic's point guard situation -- at Clips Nation.

Assorted notes:

• Corey Maggette gets to the foul line at will -- he's taken 48 foul shots in his last 5 games! -- and converts at a high rate: .841 on the season and .823 for his career. Keith Bogans and Mo Evans are going to keep him away from the basket and force him to take contested jumpers. Maggette's hitting his outside shots at an effective field goal percentage of .418, which is well below average.
• Chris Kaman is day-to-day with a sore back and may not be available this evening. If that's the case, Dwight Howard will feast upon match-up against Josh Powell.
• Al Thornton should go for 20+ points tonight. I don't think Rashard Lewis can stop him.
• No word on if J.J. Redick, who left the team after Saturday's loss to Golden State to be with his brother, will be in-uniform tonight. David Redick underwent successful surgery to remove a tumor from his spine on Monday.
• If J.J. isn't available, and the game is a blowout, we could very well have another Marcin Gortat sighting. I do not object to this. Free Marcin.

Tip's at 7, as usual. I may be a bit late to the party, but better late than never, amIrite?

Not much in the tubes today.

• Mike Freeman of CBS Sportsline has nothing but nice things to say about Dwight Howard:

  When you think Howard, think Shaquille O'Neal or Patrick Ewing or Tim Duncan, but instead of O'Neal's flab there are finely tuned gams. Instead of Ewing's more plodding game fit for a schoolyard, there is finesse. Howard possesses the power Duncan never had. And Howard isn't injury prone like Yao Ming.

  (HT: Hardwood Paroxysm)

• Chad Ford (ESPN Insider) has put together a nice rundown of the free-agency situation this summer. In my dreams, Elton Brand opts-out of his deal with the Los Angeles Clippers, then signs with us for the full mid-level exception, leaving tens of millions of dollars on the table for a chance at a title. Dude doesn't need the money; he can just keep producing Werner Herzog films (Rescue Dawn!) to pay the rent.

  Like I said, in my dreams.

• Brian Schmitz writes in his blog about the importance of the Magic holding on to that third playoff seed. If we drop to fourth, we'll likely face a first-round matchup with the Toronto Raptors, with whom we do not match-up well.
• Alex Kennedy at RealGM makes the case that Hedo Turkoglu should win the league's Most Improved Player award this season. (HT: Punisher in this thread at MagicMadness)

And since there's not much in the way of Magic news, we now turn to our division rivals:

• The Atlanta Hawks are 1-4 since acquiring Mike Bibby from the Sacramento Kings. Bibby has struggled, averaging 11.8 points, 2.0 rebounds, 5.4 assists, and 3.0 turnovers as a Hawk. He's only shooting 38% from the field. Despite their poor record lately, I expect Atlanta to make the playoffs. The East is that bad.
• The Charlotte Bobcats' slim playoff hopes ended last Friday when Gerald Wallace, their leading scorer and franchise cornerstone, left a game on a stretcher after the Kings' Mikki Moore inadvertently elbowed him in the face. Wallace suffered a concussion -- his fourth in the last four seasons -- and will miss at least the next two weeks.
• The Miami Heat earned their second win since Christmas last night, blowing out the Kings, 107-86. The Heat are now 2-22 in 2008 and haven't been relevant since... well, last season. Understandably, the folks at Sactown Royalty aren't happy with last night's results.
  • Speaking of Sactown Royalty, check out this diary post I made there to caption a picture of Hedo Turkoglu and Ron Artest talking. Join the fun!
• The Washington Wizards are just 3-10 this month, and got absolutely destroyed in Houston last night, 94-69. The Wizards managed to score just 23 points in the first half. But it hasn't been all bad for Washington this week: DeShawn Stevenson had the game of his life Monday night, scoring a career-best 33 points and hitting the game-winning triple to propel the Wizards to a victory over the New Orleans Hornets. Were the playoffs to begin today, we'd play the Wizards, so they're definitely worth keeping an eye on.

Don't forget the game thread, and stay tuned: I have a fairly large post in the works for sometime later this week.

This following statement from Magic coach Stan Van Gundy about his team's point guards, cited by Tim Povtak in a brief piece in yesterday's Orlando Sentinel, is about as clear-cut as it gets. To use Bill Parcells' cooking analogy, Magic General Manager Otis Smith bought the groceries, but Stan doesn't like the dish they've yielded:

"I can't play all three of them. That doesn't work," Van Gundy said. "We just don't have any of those [point guards] who create a lot for other people. That's [Hedo Turkoglu's] job. We've changed our lineup looking for guys who can get us off to a good start. Maybe we need to look at that again¹."

To recap: the Magic have three point guards whom their coach can't play and who don't get the ball to the people who need it. Although Hedo has indeed done a great job facilitating the offense, the responsibility shouldn't rest on his shoulders alone. It appears as though Van Gundy has seen enough of each of the Magic's point guards and doesn't have a preference over which one plays. Maybe I'm reading too far into Stan's comments, but it sure sounds like he's sending a message to Otis: This team needs a point guard.

The fact is, point guard isn't our biggest area of need. Most Magic fans agree that neither Jameer Nelson nor Carlos Arroyo can lead the Magic to a championship in the future, despite the team's 5-year, $35 million investment in Nelson; he is, in effect, the highest-paid backup point guard in the league. Although he hasn't improved much this season, he's still a serviceable starter. In other words, he's not a total waste. Neither is Arroyo. The Magic have gotten 10.6 points and 5.4 assists per game from their starting point guards this season, which is modest, but certainly not embarrassing.

Magic fans seem to want the team to upgrade at shooting guard via trade, with the Los Angeles Clippers' Corey Maggette and Memphis' Mike Miller as the two most popular targets; incidentally, both those players spent their rookie seasons in Orlando, and both of them wore no. 50. The Magic could depend on either of those players to score 15-to-17 points a night. Each player adds his own unique specialty: Maggette is exceptional at drawing fouls and converting at the free throw line (.820 career); and Miller could stretch the defense with his sweet three-point shooting stroke (.401 career).

However, Knickerblogger.net shows us the Magic rank second in the league in eFG%, trailing only high-powered Phoenix. Without putting too fine a point on it, two-guards in the NBA are primarily suppose to shoot, and to do so well. Thing is, the Magic shoot well enough as it is. This season, Magic two-guards have collectively shot a remarkable .552 eFG%. So as nice as it would be to have Maggette or Miller back in Orlando, they don't provide what we need, which is rebounding.

The Magic are exceptional on the defensive glass, ranking 6th in the league in defensive rebound percentage. But they're lackluster on the offensive glass, checking in at 27th in the league in offensive rebound percentage, a fact made all the worse when one considers they have two of the league's top individual offensive rebounders: Adonal Foyle and Dwight Howard.

Since Foyle and Howard play center, we need to look for a quality rebounder at the power forward position. Rashard Lewis, a natural small forward, starts at that position now, and he's not having much success on the boards: among the 55 qualified power forwards, Lewis is 52nd in offensive rebound rate (3.8) and 54th in overall rebound rate (7.6). This fact is especially damning because Lewis is an athletic, 6'10" man in his physical prime. For some perspective, Jameer Nelson has an identical overall rebound rate, despite the fact he stands a full foot shorter than Lewis and he plays further away from the basket.

Apart from shooting, rebounding is the second-most important aspect of basketball, as Dean Oliver wrote in his book, Basketball on Paper. If the Magic hope to contend for an NBA title, they'd do well to acquire a strong, rebound-centric power forward, even if only for the rest of this season. Four of the last five NBA Finals winners had at least three players (minimum: 15 minutes per game) with rebound rates above 15.0². The current Magic team has only one player who fits that description: Dwight Howard. As Brian Schmitz explained in this blog post (to which I linked yesterday), adding a power forward to flank Howard in the frontcourt will allow Lewis to play small forward and Turkoglu to play shooting guard. This move would give the Magic a bevy of size at the two-through-five positions and what should be a decisive advantage on the glass.

We've concluded that rebounding, particularly offensive rebounding, is the Magic's biggest weakness. Furthermore, we've explained why addressing the rebounding issue is of critical importance for a team with championship aspirations. In a later entry, we'll look at potential ways to acquire solid, rebounding power forwards via trade.

Footnotes:

¹: From an earlier entry: the Magic are 12 games over .500 despite losing a majority of their first quarters. Conclusion: It's not who starts, but who finishes.
²: All data from www.basketball-reference.com

• 2007 San Antonio Spurs: Tim Duncan (18.7 R Rate), Fabricio Oberto (16.3), Francisco Elson (15.2)
• 2006 Miami Heat: Shaquille O'Neal (17.6), Alonzo Mourning (16.2), Udonis Haslem (15.0)
• 2005 San Antonio Spurs: Nazr Mohammed (20.8), Tim Duncan (19.4), Rasho Nesterovic (15.0)
• 2004 Detroit Pistons: Ben Wallace (19.1), Mehmet Okur (15.4)
• 2003 San Antonio Spurs: Tim Duncan (19.0), David Robinson (17.5), Malik Rose (15.2)

	vs.
18-28		29-18
Wachovia Center
7:00 PM
Sun Sports
Probable starters:
Andre Miller	PG	Carlos Arroyo
Willie Green	SG	Maurice Evans
Andre Iguodala	SF	Hedo Turkoglu
Reggie Evans	PF	Rashard Lewis
Samuel Dalembert	C	Dwight Howard

Lots of weird storylines heading into tonight's action. The two teams have combined to play 93 games, yet have not played each other once. The 76ers are 10 games below .500, yet just 1.5 games out of a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Odder still, they won their last game by 43 points. Yes, the Philadelphia 76ers, post-Allen Iverson, beat a team by 43 points. Next thing you know, Joe Johnson will make an All-Star team.

Oh, wait. Crap.

I'm most interested in seeing how Hedo Turkoglu plays in his first game, post-All-Star-snub. Hopefully, he'll do his best Al Thornton impression. Thornton, who plays for the Los Angeles Clippers, was left off the roster for the Rookie Game at All-Star Weekend. He subsequently dropped 33 points on the Hawks in a 95-88 victory. I hope he dunked on Joe Johnson's head. For more notable examples of players going absolutely apeshit nuts after getting snubbed, check out today's post at 20 Second Timeout.

The player who most worries me is Andre Miller. He's great at posting-up smaller guards, much like Chauncey Billups. He's going to give Arroyo and Jameer Nelson fits. Additionally, he throws some unfairly awesome outlet passes, like this alley-oop to Andre Iguodala from about 60 feet away. But don't let that highlight clip fool you into thinking the 76ers are a running team. Despite having young studs like Iguodala, Willie Green, and Louis Williams, they're only 22nd in the league in pace factor.

Anyway, Dwight Howard gets to compete against one of the few players in the league who can legitimately challenge him for rebounds. Reggie Evans, whom the Magic were reportedly interested in acquiring last summer, is 8th in the league in Rebound Rate, ahead of such luminaries as Tim Duncan, Andris Biedrins, and Carlos Boozer. Samuel Dalembert, who will guard Howard, is 20th. I can't mention Dalembert without throwing in the infamous Pat Garrity Dunk Mix. The following video is completely real. Do not adjust your screen.

For your 76ers fix, check out Sixers 4 Guidos.

See you at 7. Go Magic.

Jameer Nelson looks to pass around the tough defense of Tim Duncan and Tony Parker. His 15 points and 9 assists weren't enough to propel the Magic past the Spurs.
Photo by Eric Gay, the Associated Press

The Magic gave the Spurs plenty of trouble in the first half, but fell apart in the second half and lost by an embarrassing 128-110 margin. Here's the boxscore.

At one point tonight, the Spurs had 22 assists and 0 turnovers; the Magic had one offensive rebound. The fact that the game was close at that juncture illustrates this team's potential. Of all our losses, this one was the only one where it seemed like we had a chance to win.

But you know what? We didn't deserve it. The 128 points for the Spurs were a season-high. Brent Barry partied like it was 1999 with 19 points on 7-of-8 shooting. Tim Duncan corralled a season-high 16 rebounds. The Spurs' bench outscored ours by a 51-11 margin. Rashard Lewis only took 10 shots, scoring 12 points.

It's encouraging that the Magic dropped 64 points in a half against the Spurs' defense. And it's nice to see Howard go for 34 points and 16 rebounds against and elite team. But I'd honestly rather have him score 2 points and grab 3 rebounds if it meant we'd win.

We get the Bobcats on Friday night in a game that should mark the Magic debuts of Brian Cook and Maurice Evans, the team's new acquisitions who were not on the active roster tonight.