vs.
11-52		42-24
AmericanAirlines Arena
7:30 PM
FSN Florida
Probable starters:
Jason Williams	PG	Jameer Nelson
Daequan Cook	SG	Maurice Evans
Ricky Davis	SF	Hedo Turkoglu
Shawn Marion	PF	Rashard Lewis
Mark Blount	C	Dwight Howard
Season series:
24 Nov 2007: Magic 120, Heat 99
28 Dec 2007: Magic 121, Heat 114
30 Jan 2008: Magic 107, Heat 91

The Magic take to the road for the first time in over a week to take on their rivals to the south, the Miami Heat. They'll return to Orlando to play the Indiana Pacers on the second night of a back-to-back, and won't have to play another road game for a week. I'm really digging this late-season schedule, and I'm sure the players are too.

The Heat are miserably bad. As Basketbawful noted yesterday, in Miami's loss to the New York Knicks on Wednesday night, Ricky Davis and Mark Blount took a combine 35 shots. Yeah, it's gotten real bad in South Beach. So bad, in fact, that coach Pat Riley has left the team to scout some college players. Not that Riley is any stranger to quitting taking time off or anything.

Oh, by the way: the Heat have lost Alonzo Mourning (knee), Shaquille O'Neal (trade), and Dwyane Wade (knee) for the season. Udonis Haslem, their glue-guy, has also missed some games with a bum ankle. At least they managed to snag Shawn Marion in the O'Neal trade.

Tipoff's at 7:30 because the Heat are about five years behind us in terms of scheduling. The game's on FSN, so most of us won't be able to see it, but that may be a good thing. Do we really want to subject ourselves to the Mark Blount? What about Heat's insufferable P.A. announcer? Seth from Posting and Toasting, SB Nation's Knicks blog, explains:

• Someone needs to make a video of every time Mark Blount touched the ball in the second half. It was surreal. I'd guess he had 15 touches in the final 24 minutes, and that he hastily bricked an off-balance jump shot on about 10 of those touches. It was so egregious that Mike Breen's call at one point was "Mark Blount with...a pass!". My fantasy team thanks you, asshole.
• As Barnesgasm pointed out, the Miami PA announcer must have accidentally ingested some speed in his pre-game snack. The guy was practically screaming such unimpressive names as "DAEQUAN COOOOOOK!!!" and "CHRIS QUIIIIINN!!1", which was made even more depressing by the noticeable echo in the completely empty arena.

So, yeah, enjoy. Go Magic.

This following statement from Magic coach Stan Van Gundy about his team's point guards, cited by Tim Povtak in a brief piece in yesterday's Orlando Sentinel, is about as clear-cut as it gets. To use Bill Parcells' cooking analogy, Magic General Manager Otis Smith bought the groceries, but Stan doesn't like the dish they've yielded:

"I can't play all three of them. That doesn't work," Van Gundy said. "We just don't have any of those [point guards] who create a lot for other people. That's [Hedo Turkoglu's] job. We've changed our lineup looking for guys who can get us off to a good start. Maybe we need to look at that again¹."

To recap: the Magic have three point guards whom their coach can't play and who don't get the ball to the people who need it. Although Hedo has indeed done a great job facilitating the offense, the responsibility shouldn't rest on his shoulders alone. It appears as though Van Gundy has seen enough of each of the Magic's point guards and doesn't have a preference over which one plays. Maybe I'm reading too far into Stan's comments, but it sure sounds like he's sending a message to Otis: This team needs a point guard.

The fact is, point guard isn't our biggest area of need. Most Magic fans agree that neither Jameer Nelson nor Carlos Arroyo can lead the Magic to a championship in the future, despite the team's 5-year, $35 million investment in Nelson; he is, in effect, the highest-paid backup point guard in the league. Although he hasn't improved much this season, he's still a serviceable starter. In other words, he's not a total waste. Neither is Arroyo. The Magic have gotten 10.6 points and 5.4 assists per game from their starting point guards this season, which is modest, but certainly not embarrassing.

Magic fans seem to want the team to upgrade at shooting guard via trade, with the Los Angeles Clippers' Corey Maggette and Memphis' Mike Miller as the two most popular targets; incidentally, both those players spent their rookie seasons in Orlando, and both of them wore no. 50. The Magic could depend on either of those players to score 15-to-17 points a night. Each player adds his own unique specialty: Maggette is exceptional at drawing fouls and converting at the free throw line (.820 career); and Miller could stretch the defense with his sweet three-point shooting stroke (.401 career).

However, Knickerblogger.net shows us the Magic rank second in the league in eFG%, trailing only high-powered Phoenix. Without putting too fine a point on it, two-guards in the NBA are primarily suppose to shoot, and to do so well. Thing is, the Magic shoot well enough as it is. This season, Magic two-guards have collectively shot a remarkable .552 eFG%. So as nice as it would be to have Maggette or Miller back in Orlando, they don't provide what we need, which is rebounding.

The Magic are exceptional on the defensive glass, ranking 6th in the league in defensive rebound percentage. But they're lackluster on the offensive glass, checking in at 27th in the league in offensive rebound percentage, a fact made all the worse when one considers they have two of the league's top individual offensive rebounders: Adonal Foyle and Dwight Howard.

Since Foyle and Howard play center, we need to look for a quality rebounder at the power forward position. Rashard Lewis, a natural small forward, starts at that position now, and he's not having much success on the boards: among the 55 qualified power forwards, Lewis is 52nd in offensive rebound rate (3.8) and 54th in overall rebound rate (7.6). This fact is especially damning because Lewis is an athletic, 6'10" man in his physical prime. For some perspective, Jameer Nelson has an identical overall rebound rate, despite the fact he stands a full foot shorter than Lewis and he plays further away from the basket.

Apart from shooting, rebounding is the second-most important aspect of basketball, as Dean Oliver wrote in his book, Basketball on Paper. If the Magic hope to contend for an NBA title, they'd do well to acquire a strong, rebound-centric power forward, even if only for the rest of this season. Four of the last five NBA Finals winners had at least three players (minimum: 15 minutes per game) with rebound rates above 15.0². The current Magic team has only one player who fits that description: Dwight Howard. As Brian Schmitz explained in this blog post (to which I linked yesterday), adding a power forward to flank Howard in the frontcourt will allow Lewis to play small forward and Turkoglu to play shooting guard. This move would give the Magic a bevy of size at the two-through-five positions and what should be a decisive advantage on the glass.

We've concluded that rebounding, particularly offensive rebounding, is the Magic's biggest weakness. Furthermore, we've explained why addressing the rebounding issue is of critical importance for a team with championship aspirations. In a later entry, we'll look at potential ways to acquire solid, rebounding power forwards via trade.

Footnotes:

¹: From an earlier entry: the Magic are 12 games over .500 despite losing a majority of their first quarters. Conclusion: It's not who starts, but who finishes.
²: All data from www.basketball-reference.com

• 2007 San Antonio Spurs: Tim Duncan (18.7 R Rate), Fabricio Oberto (16.3), Francisco Elson (15.2)
• 2006 Miami Heat: Shaquille O'Neal (17.6), Alonzo Mourning (16.2), Udonis Haslem (15.0)
• 2005 San Antonio Spurs: Nazr Mohammed (20.8), Tim Duncan (19.4), Rasho Nesterovic (15.0)
• 2004 Detroit Pistons: Ben Wallace (19.1), Mehmet Okur (15.4)
• 2003 San Antonio Spurs: Tim Duncan (19.0), David Robinson (17.5), Malik Rose (15.2)

	vs.
8-21		19-11
AmericanAirlines Arena
7:30 PM
FSN Florida
Probable starters:
Dwyane Wade	PG	Jameer Nelson
Ricky Davis	SG	Keith Bogans
Dorell Wright	SF	Hedo Turkoglu
Udonis Haslem	PF	Rashard Lewis
Earl Barron	C	Dwight Howard

The Heat are having a truly awful season. Just two years after winning the NBA title, the Heat are dead last in the Eastern Conference and will have to go 33-20 the rest of the way just to reach .500 at season's end, which might earn them a playoff berth. On top of that, they've lost backup center Alonzo Mourning to a career-ending knee injury and backup guard William "Smush" Parker to a career-ending case of mental flatulence. Shaq might take his annual injury vacation due to sore hips. Starting guard Jason Williams has a sore knee. Chris Quinn, Williams' backup, has a sprained left ankle and may not be available tonight. Yes, the Heat indeed may be without a true point guard tonight. But look on the bright side, Heat fans: as Ira Winderman notes (thirteenth bullet), your team has five centers under contract this season. Hooray!

The Magic should indeed be heavily favored in this game, but they can't afford to overlook any opponent, especially one that fields a starting five which includes Dwyane Wade and Shaquille O'Neal. And as boneheaded as Ricky Davis is, he's also a threat to pop off for 40 points at least once a season. Yahoo!'s Kelly Dwyer looks at the Heat's most recent loss, a 96-85 setback in Philadelphia, and concludes that Pat Riley the coach deserves just as much of the criticism as Pat Riley the GM. Basically, they're better than their record lets on, and perhaps they'd be more successful with a different coach. It should be noted that the Heat are 4-6 in their last 10 games. Is that impressive? Lord, no, but it's also one game better than our 3-7 mark in that same span.

We handled the Heat fairly well the last time we matched up with them; in fact, it might have been our best game of the season. Basically, the Heat don't have anyone who can shut down both Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis. Also, Shaq is too slow and too old to hang with Dwight Howard defensively, although he played well on the offensive end (20 points, 8-15 FG) against Dwight in November.

The game is on FSN Florida, which means most of us won't get to see it. Thank you, NBA Audio League Pass.

UPDATE: Shaquille O'Neal is active for tonight's game, but will not start, reports ESPN.com.