John Denton filed a bunch of reports from the first day of the Orlando Magic's training camp yesterday, and I encourage everyone to check them out in his Florida Today forum. Quotes from the reports, as well as my reaction, follow.

• It sounds like Mickael Pietrus performed about as well as advertised yesterday. He made athletic defensive plays...

  ORLANDO -- Rashard Lewis had never before been happier about getting a shot of his swatted out of the air.

  "I was going to the basket on the fastbreak and I see Dwight Howard coming and I know I have to avoid him," Lewis said, recalling a moment from the Orlando Magic's first intrasquad scrimmage on Tuesday. "I get around (Howard) for the layup and all of a sudden (Mickael) Pietrus comes flying out of nowhere and blocks my shot. That's a nice feeling knowing that MP is flying around everywhere and being so athletic."

  And he committed a ton of fouls...

  The only thing that [Stan] Van Gundy didn't like about Pietrus' Magic debut Tuesday was that he was sometimes too aggressive and stopped play with fouls.

  We've mentioned before that Pietrus commits far too many fouls, but it bears repeating: if he can't stay on the floor long enough to play effective defense, it means more minutes for Keith Bogans, which leaves the Magic essentially right where they were one year ago.

• In better news, Courtney Lee feels comfortable playing point guard:

  Head coach Stan Van Gundy split the Magic into two teams for three quarters of a scrimmage and Lee, mostly a shooting guard in college, saw extensive minutes at point guard. The Magic feel that with Hedo Turkoglu being able to handle the ball and initiate the offense at times that the 6-foot-5 Lee can give opposing point guards trouble with his length.

  Ideally, if everyone's healthy, Anthony Johnson would play the majority of backup point guard minutes, which would leave Lee to play his natural position. But in a pinch, Lee could fill-in nicely, and could mitigate the losses of Carlos Arroyo and Keyon Dooling. I'm glad to see the Magic may have found a combo guard in Lee, although I'll reserve officially designating him as such until I see him in action.

• Here's the obligatory "Dwight Howard plans to expand his offensive game" piece:

  Howard worked hard this summer - first at the Olympics with Chris Bosh and Carlos Boozer and later in Orlando with assistant coach Patrick Ewing - on adding a turn-around jumper and a short, faceup shot to his offensive repertoire.

  And Howard wasted little time showing off his offseason work, hitting a couple of midrange shots in Tuesday's first practice to the surprise of his teammates and coaches.

  I hate to sound cynical, but we heard the same thing last year, too. And Dwight even uncorked a jumper in the first preseason game, prompting me to write "I have a feeling we're going to see a lot more of these shots [jumpers] this season." Of course, Dwight went on to make me look a fool: 82games tells us only 16% of his shots were jumpers, and he connected on only 24.8% of them.

  The question becomes the following: do we even want Dwight to develop a consistent jumper? Speaking only for myself, I'd rather see him plant himself in the post and try to improve his footwork, then try to branch out a bit. Denton's report mentions Dwight nailed a foul-line jumper off a pick-and-roll in practice today. Cool. But when, in the regular season, I doubt Dwight will be in that position on the pick-and-roll. If the Magic want to run a pick-and-pop, they'll do it with one of their bevy of perimeter-oriented bigs. After Dwight sets a pick, I'd rather he motor to the basket and look for a lob, if it's there. Boom.

• Finally, Dwight's new signature shoe from adidas features a Superman logo. No photos yet -- none of the ones from Media Day are zoomed-in enough -- but I'm anxious to see them. Did D.C. Comics sign-off on the logo? Or is it an adidas-designed tribute to that famous shield?

Incidentally, today marks the one-year anniversary of 3QC joining SB Nation. Hooray!

That's all for today, I think. If you want a cool perspective on another team's training camp, check out Posting and Toasting, SB Nation's Knicks blog. The Knicks gave Seth access (!) to their camp at Skidmore College, and he's on top of things.

Dwight Howard, seen here watching the United States' Women's Basketball team compete against the Czech Republic, seems to have lost some popularity among NBA observers.

Photo by Mark Dadswell, Getty Images

I get the impression that some people have soured on Dwight Howard.

Perhaps not as a player -- he's coming off his best professional season, one in which he lead the league in rebounding and his team in scoring; earned First-Team All-NBA honors; and propelled the Magic to their first second-round playoff appearance in a dozen years -- but maybe as a personality.

I like keep up with stuff in the blogosphere. I like to think I have a decent handle on what non-Magic fans think about Orlando's players, and especially Howard. And in my year-plus of covering the Magic extensively, I haven't read more than one or two posts from people saying deriding Howard's personality, or at least questioning it.

In the last four days, I've read three.

• Wednesday night, Evil Ted predicted the Redeem Team would win bronze, saying Howard makes the team "look like a bunch of retards," although he later backed off that statement when he realized the video he posted to support his point came from 2006.

• Yesterday, Kyle from Forum Blue and Gold broke down Team U.S.A., player-by-player. Of Howard, he wrote,

  In terms of what Howard is doing, I love it and think he is great. A bigger concern right now for Howard is that he appears to be in Coach K's dog house. Coach K doesn't like how Howard has gotten chippy with the other players and Howard's tendency to gloat after good plays (he did this a lot during the five exhibition games, more than any of the other players, which was frankly shocking to me as I thought Howard was the nice, humble Christian). This bugs me too as the days of US dominance are over. Lets hold off on the showboating and rim hanging until we actually win an international tournament that matters. Hasn't happened in six years.

• Also yesterday, a minor quibble from Natalie of Need4Sheed, who posted a video of Team U.S.A. entering the arena during the opening ceremonies. She writes, "Are Carlos Boozer and Dwight Howard too cool to wear the official USA sanctioned Ralph Lauren head wear during their ceremonial walk? Everyone else seemed to be just fine with it. What's the deal?"

Dwight got off to a great start in Team U.S.A.'s first game in round-robin play this morning (boxscore | New York Times recap), going 4-for-4 from the field, all on dunks; I didn't tape the game, so I can't verify this assertion, but I don't recall him celebrating or goofing off after any play. About the only negative body language from Howard occurred after 6'09" guard Sun Yue rejected one of his layups. Dwight sagged his shoulders a bit and played below-average for the rest of the game, which shouldn't surprise Magic fans, who are used to Dwight losing focus when flustered. Disconcerting, to be sure, but not out of the ordinary.

Have you all noticed a change in Dwight's attitude? Should we be worried about it heading into next season, in the first year his maximum-level contract extension?

UPDATE: I'm a bit late to the party, but I feel like I should mention that Natalie from Need4Sheed clarified what she meant with her original post. From the comments of this entry:

I really wasn’t upset at Dwight or Bozzer for that matter, be it that they were ugly or it was too hot everyone else didn’t seem to have a problem with them. I just though it may have been a bit disrespectful. Can’t say that I have soured on Dwight, he’s still one of my favorite players.

Yeah, looks like I reached when I originally wrote this post. 3QC commenter magic fanatic might have said it best: "All this means to me is that he is officially a superstar."

	vs.
49-29		19-59
Amway Arena
7:00 PM
Sun Sports
Probable starters:
Jameer Nelson	PG	Randy Foye
Maurice Evans	SG	Marko Jaric
Hedo Turkoglu	SF	Kirk Snyder
Rashard Lewis	PF	Ryan Gomes
Dwight Howard	C	Al Jefferson
Season series:
6 Nov 2007: Magic 111, Timberwolves 103

We should have no trouble with Minnesota at all. The Timberwolves are a decent rebounding team (12th in offensive rebound rate, 15th in defensive rebound rate), but don't do anything else well. They have Al Jefferson, who'd be an All-Star if he played for a team anywhere close to .500. He's one of only four players in the league this year averaging 20 points and 10 rebounds; Dwight Howard, Antawn Jamison, and Carlos Boozer are the others.

Jefferson is a poor defender, though. In an improbable victory over the Suns earlier this year, Jefferson scored 39 points, but allowed Amare Stoudemire to score 33.... on 14-of-16 from the field. Dwight Howard will destroy Jefferson tonight, provided that his teammates do a good enough job of getting him the ball.

They also have free-agent-to-be Ryan Gomes, who can play either forward position and is a solid "glue guy," the kind of role-player I'd like to see us sign this summer. But he told Hoopsworld he wants to stay in Minnesota. What a shame.

I get a feeling like we'll get to see plenty of J.J. Redick, Carlos Arroyo, Pat Garrity, and James Augustine tonight. It's our last game against a Western team, so if there's ever a time to rest the starters, it's tonight.

Go Magic. Get that 50th win, and we can all celebrate with free Dunkin' Donuts Saturday morning.

	vs.
18-28		29-18
Wachovia Center
7:00 PM
Sun Sports
Probable starters:
Andre Miller	PG	Carlos Arroyo
Willie Green	SG	Maurice Evans
Andre Iguodala	SF	Hedo Turkoglu
Reggie Evans	PF	Rashard Lewis
Samuel Dalembert	C	Dwight Howard

Lots of weird storylines heading into tonight's action. The two teams have combined to play 93 games, yet have not played each other once. The 76ers are 10 games below .500, yet just 1.5 games out of a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Odder still, they won their last game by 43 points. Yes, the Philadelphia 76ers, post-Allen Iverson, beat a team by 43 points. Next thing you know, Joe Johnson will make an All-Star team.

Oh, wait. Crap.

I'm most interested in seeing how Hedo Turkoglu plays in his first game, post-All-Star-snub. Hopefully, he'll do his best Al Thornton impression. Thornton, who plays for the Los Angeles Clippers, was left off the roster for the Rookie Game at All-Star Weekend. He subsequently dropped 33 points on the Hawks in a 95-88 victory. I hope he dunked on Joe Johnson's head. For more notable examples of players going absolutely apeshit nuts after getting snubbed, check out today's post at 20 Second Timeout.

The player who most worries me is Andre Miller. He's great at posting-up smaller guards, much like Chauncey Billups. He's going to give Arroyo and Jameer Nelson fits. Additionally, he throws some unfairly awesome outlet passes, like this alley-oop to Andre Iguodala from about 60 feet away. But don't let that highlight clip fool you into thinking the 76ers are a running team. Despite having young studs like Iguodala, Willie Green, and Louis Williams, they're only 22nd in the league in pace factor.

Anyway, Dwight Howard gets to compete against one of the few players in the league who can legitimately challenge him for rebounds. Reggie Evans, whom the Magic were reportedly interested in acquiring last summer, is 8th in the league in Rebound Rate, ahead of such luminaries as Tim Duncan, Andris Biedrins, and Carlos Boozer. Samuel Dalembert, who will guard Howard, is 20th. I can't mention Dalembert without throwing in the infamous Pat Garrity Dunk Mix. The following video is completely real. Do not adjust your screen.

For your 76ers fix, check out Sixers 4 Guidos.

See you at 7. Go Magic.

Really, guys? Anthony Carter? Ugh.

That basically sums up last night's game. On to tonight's:

	vs.
20-17		23-15
EnergySolutions Arena
9:00 PM
FSN Florida
Probable starters:
Deron Williams	PG	Jameer Nelson
Ronnie Brewer	SG	Maurice Evans
C.J. Miles	SF	Hedo Turkoglu
Carlos Boozer	PF	Rashard Lewis
Mehmet Okur	C	Dwight Howard

Utah's Andrei Kirilenko is a game-time decision due to back trouble. If he's able to go, and coach Jerry Sloan elects to start him, he'll take C.J. Miles' place as the starting small forward.

The Jazz embarrassed us on our home floor the last time we played them, so we'd like to return the favor. It won't be easy, though; the Jazz are 14-3 at home.

	vs.
18-9		14-13
Amway Arena
7:00 PM
FSN Florida
Probable starters:
Jameer Nelson	PG	Deron Williams
Keith Bogans	SG	Ronnie Brewer
Hedo Turkoglu	SF	Andrei Kirilenko
Rashard Lewis	PF	Carlos Boozer
Dwight Howard	C	Jarron Collins

25 words or fewer: Orlando looks to boost its home record to above .500 in a game against struggling Utah, which has lost eight of its past ten games.

Know Your Enemy: The Jazz sometimes play down to the level of their competition, having lost to Sacramento, Atlanta, and Charlotte during their recent slide.

Useless information: In Andrei Kirilenko's last visit to Orlando, he was held scoreless in 21 minutes of action; he did not even attempt a shot. It was just the fourth time in his career he had been held scoreless as a starter, and the first time playing more than 9 minutes.  

• It's Rashard Lewis Bobblehead Night at the O-Rena Amway Arena. In the ultimate act of irony, the doll might have more range of motion in its neck than its real-life counterpart. Lewis' neck is so sore that he got an MRI yesterday to see if there's any severe damage. Yikes.
• Lewis' last game against the Jazz was a good one for him: he had 35 points and 8 rebounds in a win for the SuperSonics. He also knocked in six three-pointers. Of course, maybe that game should have an asterisk next to it; the Jazz were without Andrei Kirilenko, their best defender.
• The last time the Jazz were in town, we beat them convincingly behind Dwight Howard's 31 points and 15 rebounds.
• Still no word on if Carlos Arroyo will be available tonight. That left foot must really be bothering him. As important as he is to our success, Keyon Dooling has flourished in his stead.
• Last season's defeat of Utah partly "inspired" me to write this laughable piece I wrote at the original Third Quarter Collapse. The title? "In Defense of Brian Hill." Yeah, I know. Mybad.
• The Jazz's Gordan Giricek, a former Magic player, won't be in the arena to face the Magic tonight. The Deseret Morning News repots Jerry Sloan banished him to the locker room during the Jazz's loss to Charlotte on Wednesday, then sent him home after the game. Ouch. Good thing his contract runs out at the end of the year, I guess. (Hat tip: Fanhouse)

I'll be at the game tonight, so the recap will be up later than usual. Post your pre-, in-, and post-game comments in this thread. C'mon, Magic! I want free donuts tomorrow morning!

• UPDATE: Dwight Howard earned Player of the Week honors earlier today, but that wasn't even the best news for him. He, along with Utah's Carlos Boozer, earned Player of the Month honors for November. Dwight also won the award in April 2006 and November 2006. Congratulations, Dwight!
• For the second time this season, Dwight Howard won the Eastern Conference Player of the Week award after averaging 23.8 points and 15.3 rebounds. Congratulations, Dwight!
• I was one of the many bloggers who will participate in BrewHoop's bi-weekly MVP/Rookie of the Year rankings. The results of the first poll are up at BrewHoop. I voted for LeBron James and Jamario Moon, respectively.
• The Magic's website runs down a list of Christmas Holiday events in the Orlando community in which members of the team will participate.
• Don't know what to get the Magic fan on your Holiday shopping list? OrlandoMagicShop.com has put together this gift-giving guide, which includes this nifty Magic Santa hat.

More news as it happens. Don't forget to check out the open thread for tonight's Magic/Warriors game.

	vs.
9-7		14-4
Staples Center
9:30 PM
Sun Sports HD
Probable starters:
Derek Fisher	PG	Jameer Nelson
Kobe Bryant	SG	Keith Bogans
Lamar Odom	SF	Hedo Turkoglu
Ronny Turiaf	PF	Rashard Lewis
Andrew Bynum	C	Dwight Howard

• UPDATE: Forum Blue and Gold, the finest Lakers blog on the tubes, has posted its preview for tonight's game.
• The Lakers have struggled with their defense this year. They're 16th in defensive efficiency, and gave up 120 points to the Jazz the other night despite Utah behing without All-Stars Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur.
• Brian Schmitz has this feature on Rashard Lewis in which Stan Van Gundy places some of the blame for Lewis' shooting slump on himself:

  "If we're going to really get our shooting back to where it was, the minutes are going to have to get more realistic on he and Turk. I have not done a good job at that," Van Gundy said. "If you're looking at their minutes [Lewis leads with 39.3 minutes per game and Turkoglu averages 36.9], it's not realistic, especially on a nightly basis when we're a team that's played the most games in the league."

• This has nothing to do with the Magic, but how about UCF winning the Conference USA Championship behind the strong running of Kevin Smith? Congratulations, Golden Knights!
• The Magic are 2-16 (.111) all-time on the road against the Lakers. Despite that, Accuscore thinks we'll win the game, giving us a 52% chance of leaving L.A. victorious.
• Trevor Ariza hasn't done much since we traded him to L.A., averaging just 2 points, 0.3 rebounds and 0.3 assists.
  • UPDATE: John Denton spoke with Ariza about his frustrating season. Ariza had hoped to showcase his skills before becoming a free-agent next summer, possibly cashing in on a career-year. But he didn't crack the rotation in Orlando and hasn't mastered Lakers coach Phil Jackson's offense.

The game recap may be up later than usual tonight. Feel free to write your own in the diaries.

John Hollinger, the statistical whiz who derived Player Efficiency Rating (PER), has released his projected 2007/2008 PER statistics for every player who played at least 500 minutes last season. PER is, as he explains it to Henry Abbott of TrueHoop:

Anyway, PER is a per-minute rating of a player's statistical productivity. It's great for measuring a player's "tangibles"; the one area it struggles is with defense because so much of that remains a black box for the analytical community.

I use it so much because it makes it very easy to make comparisons between players who play differing minutes, or in different systems or what-not -- comparisons which, using conventional stats, are almost impossible.

Here is how PER is derived:

I base the projections on a tool called similarity scores.

For each player, I use as a comparison the players from the past 20 years who are the most similar, based on age, height and stats over the past three seasons. Some players will have more comparables than others, depending on how unusual they are -- guys with freak heights (Yao Ming, Earl Boykins), freak ages (Dikembe Mutombo) or freak stats (Andrei Kirilenko) will have relatively few, while a more generic player like Al Harrington or Devin Brown could have over a hundred.

From that point, I see what their most similar players did a year later, and project those changes onto the stats of the player being studied. So, for example, the reason that Yao Ming's PER is projected to rise sharply this year is because the most similar players also saw their PERs increase sharply at the same age; similarly, Andre Miller is expected to tank because a number of similar players hit the wall at his age.

PER is normalized each year to 15; that is, if you have a PER of 15, you're an average player. After the jump, I've posted a table showing how Magic players fared last year, as well as Hollinger's projections for them this year, and their difference. Alternatively, you can click here to view the predictions directly on ESPN.com. While the raw numbers are free, the player profiles are not.

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