The Philadelphia 76ers' addition of Elton Brand has some NBA experts picking them to make it to the NBA Finals.

File photo by Tom Mihalek, the Associated Press

If you're interested in NBA predictions made in early September, then ESPN has you covered. 25 of its NBA experts huddled and predicted the 2008/2009 standings, year-end-awards, conference champions, and NBA champions. What I'm most interested in is the Eastern Conference predictions: 17 of ESPN's experts picked the Boston Celtics to come out of the East once again; 6 of them picked the Cleveland Cavaliers to make it to the Finals for the second time in three years; and 2 of them picked the re-Branded Philadelphia 76er team to advance.

That's 0 votes for the veteran-laden Detroit Pistons and 0 votes for the up-and-coming Orlando Magic.

And yet what strikes me the most is the support for Philadelphia. There's no doubt that they were the surprise team of the East last year, finishing with a 40-42 record and playing fantastic ball after the All-Star break. There's also no doubt that the addition of Elton Brand will improve them tremendously, possibly into 50-win territory. In fact, Sixersoul points to the Magic's acquisition of Rashard Lewis last summer, which pushed them from 40 wins in the previous season to 52 in the subsequent one, as proof that the 76ers are poised to make a tremendous leap.

However, not everyone agrees with that assessment. Clipper Steve of Clips Nation, who's as familiar with Brand's game as anyone, is one of the skeptics. He describes at length why he thinks the 76ers are overhyped. Their "Big Three" of Brand, Andre Iguodala, and Samuel Dalembert is weak in comparison to other trios in the East, and they lack a guy who can deliver in the clutch.

So now, sparked by Steve's discussion of the 76ers, I pose this question: which moving-and-shaking Eastern team is most likely to leapfrog Orlando, which finished behind only Boston and Detroit last season, in the standings next season? Here are the choices, in no particular order:

• Cleveland added Mo Williams;
• Philadelphia added Brand;
• the Washington Wizards re-signed Antawn Jamison and will have their other two stars, Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler, healthy to start the season;
• the Toronto Raptors re-signed Jose Calderon and traded for former All-Star Jermaine O'Neal;
• and even the Miami Heat, with rookie star Michael Beasley and standout Olympian Dwyane Wade, might turn some heads this season.

Choose wisely.

	vs.
45-24		33-33
Amway Arena
7:00 PM
FSN Florida
Probable starters:
Jameer Nelson	PG	Antonio Daniels
Maurice Evans	SG	D. Stevenson
Hedo Turkoglu	SF	Caron Butler
Rashard Lewis	PF	Antawn Jamison
Dwight Howard	C	Brendan Haywood
Season series:
3 Nov 2007: Magic 94, Wizards 82
5 Mar 2008: Magic 122, Wizards 92

It'll be a potential first-round playoff matchup for the Orlando Magic as they take on Washington Wizards tonight. The Magic have won five straight games and are really surging toward the playoffs. The Wizards, which hold a firm grip on second-place in the Southeast, recently got back to .500 by going 3-0 last week. A lazy loss to the third-place Atlanta Hawks on Monday night set Washington squarely at .500.

Although we've handled Washington fairly well in the two previous meetings this season, especially in the 30-point beatdown we handed them two weeks ago, we can't discount them. Like us, they recently managed to defeat the Cavaliers, and they have their All-Star small forward, Caron Butler, back from a hip injury; Butler did not play in these teams' previous meeting. The Wiz may be a mere 33-33, but they can hang with us for sure, and stand a solid chance of ending our winning streak if we don't come out prepared. It's hard to imagine calling a game against a playoff-bound team a "trap game," but such is the nature of the Eastern Conference.

There's a good chance Gilbert Arenas will return from knee surgery tonight. Agent Zero hasn't played since November 16th, but said during the telecast of the Wizards/Cavaliers game last week that he was all set to make his season debut that night, unannounced, before team doctors changed his plans at the last minute. Arenas told the Washington Post, "A hyped game will actually get me out there." Well, it figures to be a playoff atmosphere in the Amway Arena tonight, and I'm sure Gilbert would love to pop-off for about 40 points in a Wizards victory just to showcase his swag. UPDATE: Bold 'N' Blue passes along word that Arenas is out tonight.

Tipoff's at 7 on FSN Florida, luckily enough; if the Wizards are wearing their Duracel-inspired gold uniforms, we're better off not seeing the game.

Go Magic.

UPDATE: Bullets Forever has its game preview up. Pradamaster is afraid of the Magic:

Let's not mince words, they're a contender: The Magic officially scare me.

They've won eight of their last nine, all in blowout fashion.  Sure, none of those wins were against a good team (except Cleveland), but they have been blowouts, which is how good teams are separated from mediocre teams.  They've improved their defense, surrendering over 100 points only three times during the stretch.  That officially makes them tough, because offensively, they're easily the best team in the Eastern Conference, and as the best shooting team, they can burn you no matter how well you guard them.</p?   <p&gtI'd rather face Cleveland at this point, to be honest [....]

	vs.
29-30		39-23
Verizon Center
7:00 PM
Sun Sports
Probable starters:
Antonio Daniels	PG	Jameer Nelson
D. Stevenson	SG	Maurice Evans
Darius Songaila	SF	Hedo Turkoglu
Antawn Jamison	PF	Rashard Lewis
B. Haywood	C	Dwight Howard
Season series:
3 Nov 2007: Magic 94, Wizards 82

The Wizards seem to have recovered from an awful early-February stretch. After losing their first seven games last month, the Wiz have won five of their past eight, including two over the formidable New Orleans Hornets. It gets better for them, though: the team's medical staff cleared Gilbert Arenas for practice yesterday, although there's still no word as to when he'll return. Caron Butler is still out with a hip injury, but I doubt he'll miss too much time.

The point is the Wizards are better than their record indicates, and we can't take them lightly. Antawn Jamison and Brendan Haywood are each having their finest professional seasons, and former Magic guard DeShawn Stevenson has come up big lately as well, hitting a game-winning triple in one game against the Hornets last week (HT: Odenized). Reserve forward Andray Blatche, a seven-footer, presents matchup problems for us as well.

That said, our frontcourt of Hedo Turkoglu, Rashard Lewis, and Dwight Howard has been nigh-unstoppable lately, and the Wizards are a poor defensive team; they rank 22nd in defensive efficiency and 23rd in effective field goal percentage defense. If we come out focused enough, we may be able to drop 110 on them, even though they prefer to play at a slow pace.

Check out Bullets Forever for your Wizards fix. UPDATE: Here's their game thread. Tipoff's at 7:00. Go Magic.

Orlando's Hedo Turkoglu fires a jump-shot during his Magic's 102-87 victory over the Toronto Raptors on Tuesday night. Turkoglu lead the Magic with 24 points and 8 assists.
Photo by Fernando Medina, NBAE/Getty Images

The Magic managed to defeat the Raptors fairly convincingly, 102-87, on Tuesday night despite only grabbing two offensive boards and having their bench outscored 40-20. The reason? Timely scoring from Dwight Howard and from Hedo Turkoglu, an efficient offensive game from Rashard Lewis, and an opponent playing without its best player.

Neither team played inspired ball in the first half, but the Magic put it together in the early stages of the fourth quarter, letting T.J. Ford single-handedly grind his team's offense to a halt. Ford took the Raptors' first eight shots in the final frame, scoring 13 points in that span. However, he also committed 4 turnovers, which the Magic converted into eight points. By the time any other Raptor did anything offensively in the fourth quarter, Toronto trailed by 9 points, and never got closer than 7 the rest of the way.

Hedo Turkoglu came through in the fourth quarter once again, scoring 7 points, but it was Dwight Howard who went berserk. He made all 7 of his shots in the quarter, most of them dunks. Toronto was helpless to stop Dwight Without Chris Bosh to force him further away from the basket.

Four big surprises this evening:

• The Magic made Jose Calderon look ordinary. Calderon finished with only three assists, which is the second-lowest total he's had as a starter this season. Certainly, we can attribute that low total to the Raptors' anemic shooting, but certainly we should give some credit to Carlos Arroyo and Jameer Nelson for pestering Calderon.
• Marcin Gortat played and J.J. Redick didn't. Marcin played in his second straight game, recording a rebound in 37 seconds. Earlier today, it appeared as though J.J. would finally get his chance to shine, but Keith Bogans recovered from the abdominal strain that might have kept him out and played 25 solid minutes, making two three-pointers in that span. The starter, Maurice Evans, played 26 minutes and did nothing with them: 2 points (1-of-7 shooting). That poor showing, coupled with Marcin's stint, begs the question: What does J.J. have to do to get into the rotation?!
• The Raptors shot poorly, especially from three-point range. Toronto boasts the league's sixth-best effective field goal percentage (.514), but posted an effective field goal percentage of just .420 this evening. Without Chris Bosh drawing double-teams, the Raptors weren't getting the wide-open looks to which they are accustomed.
• Rashard Lewis is coming around: Quietly, Rashard Lewis is shredding opposing defenses. He's scored 104 points on just 68 shots (!) in our past 5 games. During that span, we're 4-1.

No rest for the weary for us, though. We're off to Washington to see the Wizards tomorrow night. They'll be without the services of their two best players: Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler. A loss tomorrow night will be inexcusable. For what it's worth, Denver's Carmelo Anthony dropped 49 points (on 25 shots!) on the Wizards last month. Might Rashard Lewis or Hedo Turkoglu have a similarly impressive outing tomorrow night? One can only hope, but coming away with a win is clearly a higher priority.

NBA.com has your Magic/Raptors boxscore hookup. For more coverage of this game, visit Bold 'n' Blue,  Orlando Magic Blog, and the Orlando Sentinel. And Dinosty

The Magic won tonight, unexpectedly, thanks to some strong defense. Maybe I should bash the team more often.

Nah.

The full recap should be up in this space sometime tomorrow morning. Until then, have fun with the boxscore:

• Schmitz's 20/20 prediction for Dwight came true;
• Rashard Lewis lead the team in scoring;
• Briak Cook scored 18 points on 9 shot attempts;
• and the two-guard tandem of Maurice Evans and Keith Bogans combined to shoot 2-of-15 for 4 points while J.J. Redick recorded yet another DNP-CD.

Interesting stuff.

Also, according to the Washington Post's Ivan Carter, Wizards forward Caron Butler is doubtful for the All-Star game this Sunday. Hedo Turkoglu's best shot to make the team is right now. The Canadian Press reports Ray Allen, not Hedo Turkoglu, will replace Butler. Thanks to Bullets Forever for the assist on the Carter article.

Besides tomorrow's recap, I don't plan on making any posts until after the All-Star break... which means Otis Smith will go do something completely stupid and I'll end up spending the whole weekend writing about it. Do NOT pick up that phone, Otis! Unless it's an offer for one of these guys.

Drew Gooden and his considerable beard foul Dwight Howard. The Magic fouled their fans last night, flagrantly, by losing to a tired, undermanned, inferior Cleveland team. But you knew that already.
Photo by Gary W. Green, the Orlando Sentinel

• I went through my notes from the Magic's first game against Cleveland this preseason as part of the China Games. Notable passage:

  Hughes shoots over Nelson, draws foul (will be a problem all season).

  Observations like that are why they pay me the big bucks. Wait, I do this for free. Oops.

• The "little bit of conflict" between Dwight Howard and Stan Van Gundy has gotten a lot more press than it's worth; SportsCenter even devoted a brief segment to it. I don't think it's a big deal at all, especially now that they've talked it over (hat-tip: John Denton). As Dwight says, it's like when family members get into a disagreement with one another. It's normal. However, I agree with Brian Schmitz when he says that Stan better watch how he treats Dwight, lest he find himself unemployed.
  • By the way, the statistics indeed bear out Stan's argument that Dwight needs to focus more on his defense:
    • In games in which Dwight lead his team or tied for the team's lead in scoring, the Magic are 11-23.
    • In Magic wins, Dwight averages 20.6 points on 11.3 field goal attempts. In Magic losses, Dwight averages 23.3 points on 13.7 field goal attempts.
  • However, I still think the Magic need to do a better job of feeding him the ball late in games. Foul-line liability or not, he's a dependable scorer. And, as I noted a few weeks ago, Adam Hoff agrees.
• On a much lighter note, Dwight has posted a video of him practicing for the Sprite Slam Dunk contest happening this Saturday night. (hat-tip: FanHouse)
• The Magic have their own YouTube channel (via J.E. Skeets at Ball Don't Lie)
• The first four pictures in the Orlando Sentinel's photo gallery of last night's game depict, in order:
  • LeBron James dunking on Keith Bogans, who is on the seat of his pants;
  • LeBron James shooting over Keith Bogans, again on the seat of his pants;
  • LeBron James driving by Keith Bogans and Jameer Nelson;
  • and LeBron James driving past just Keith Bogans
  Well, you can't spell "defensive specialist" without "special," I suppose.
• Hardwood Paroxysm has Round 6 of Blogger MVP and RoY rankings. Dwight has really slipped out of contention at this point, and I didn't even have him in my top 10. Guess where Hedo Turkoglu's single vote came from...
• It wasn't from David Stern. On Sunday, the NBA's Commissioner named Rasheed Wallace to the Eastern All-Star team to replace Kevin Garnett, who will miss the game with an abdominal injury. Yes, Hedo Turkoglu is probably having a better season, but Wallace's selection doesn't bother me. His skill-set is more similar to Garnett's than Turkoglu's is. Congratulations, Rasheed.
  • Turk still has a chance to make the team if Caron Butler skips the game due to hip trouble. Josh Smith also merits consideration, but I don't buy for a second that Ray Allen does. First, he's not even having that great a season. His per 36 minute scoring (17.3) is his worst since his rookie year, when he scored 15.7 points per 36 (See basketball-reference.) Second, he doesn't even remotely play Butler's position. Third, a given team's record shouldn't dictate how many All-Stars it has. An All-Star roster spot is an individual honor, not a team one.
• The Eastern Conference Powerless Rankings are up at Basketbawful. Matt from Hardwood Paroxysm writes, "You can't spell 'elite' without Hedo. Okay, you can. That's probably a good sign as to the Magic's chances of becoming elite." There's still time before the trading deadline! We can get better! Oh, wait. Otis Smith. Yeah, Matt's got a point.
• 3QC's next post, which will feature some charts and graphs (probably just graphs), should be up later tonight or sometime tomorrow. The subject is defense, and the outlook is grim.

Although the Eastern Conference coaches didn't vote him into the All-Star game, Hedo Turkoglu still has a chance to make the East team, albeit under less-than-ideal circumstances.

Starting forward and leading vote-getter Kevin Garnett has missed the Celtics' last 4 games with a strained abdominal muscle, and coach Doc Rivers -- who will also coach the Eastern All-Star team -- doesn't see the need to rush him back into the lineup. Rivers may hold Garnett out of the All-Star game if Garnett doesn't improve.

In a more recent development, Wizards forward Caron Butler re-injured his hip flexor in a loss to the 76ers this evening and had to leave the game. Butler missed three games last week with a similar injury and his status for the rest of the pre-All-Star schedule is not yet known.

If Garnett or Butler aren't able to play, NBA Commissioner David Stern would select a replacement player. Turkoglu, as an Eastern forward having a career-year for a division-leading team, stands an excellent chance of receiving that nomination. If Garnett misses the game, Rivers would re-adjust the starting lineup to his liking.

Yesterday, Turkoglu told John Denton of Florida Today that he will to participate in All-Star weekend as a player or as a three-point shootout contestant if summoned.

This post summarizes reaction to Turkoglu's snub from some NBA analysts; additionally, the post includes a statistical comparison between Turkoglu and Joe Johnson, the Eastern All-Star with the least-impressive credentials this season. In a poll conducted last week, 90% of 3QC readers said Turkoglu's exclusion from the team was unfair; 10% said it was fair, even though he's putting up All-Star numbers; and 0% said it was fair and the notion that Turkoglu should be an All-Star is ridiculous.

Sixers4Guidos, which bills itself as the first Italian blog for 76ers fans, is hosting the fourth round of NBA MVP/ROY rankings as voted on by bloggers. BrewHoop hosted Round 1, Clips Nation hosted Round 2, and 3 Shades of Blue hosted Round 3. Dwight Howard came in third place in MVP voting in this edition. Shockingly, Marcin Gortat was nowhere to be found in ROY voting.

Look after the jump to see the ballot and comments I sent to Sixers4Guidos for them to compile. I'm surprised that I was the only person who gave Daequan Cook any ROY votes. He's good, people!

Continue reading this post »

	vs.
0-2		1-1
Verizon Center
7:00 PM
Probable starters:
Gilbert Arenas	PG	Jameer Nelson
DeShawn Stevenson	SG	Keith Bogans
Caron Butler	SF	Hedo Turkoglu
Antawn Jamison	PF	Rashard Lewis
Brendan Haywood	C	Dwight Howard

25 words or fewer: Two teams expected to battle for the Southeast Division crown play each other coming off embarrassing losses on Thursday night.

Know your enemy: The Wizards' biggest weakness this season has been the three-point shot. Through two games, they are a woeful 6-of-36 from beyond the arc; their opponents, meanwhile, are a sizzling 20-of-50. This news bodes well for the Magic, who are 20-of-40 from three-point range so far this season.

Useless information: Magic guard Keith Bogans has yet to miss a shot this season. He is 6-of-6 from the field -- all three-pointers -- and 2-of-2 from the foul line. He is the Magic's fourth-leading scorer.

Bullet points:

• It took me ten years, but I finally figured out what the heck the Wizards' alternate logo, depicted above, is supposed to be. It's a lower-case "DC."
• Gilbert Arenas talked a lot of smack in the preseason, especially in an SI.com interview in which he said he was essentially a better player than LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Kobe Bryant (via FanHouse). So far, he has not backed that up; he is a 15-of-45 from the field and 1-of-13 from three-point range.
• Through two games, our bench has scored 37 points on 52 shot attempts.
• After last night's loss, Magic coach Stan Van Gundy lamented his coaching and his players' lack of effort, but he took a glass-half-full approach, saying, "[I]t's OK because we're in Game 2 of 82." I agree. Might as well get the crappy play out of our system early.
• I forgot to mention this fact in my wrapup from last night's game, so I'll include it here: the Pistons scored the first 10 points of the third quarter. After our win against Milwaukee, in which we outscored the Bucks 35-16, I wondered if it was too late to change the name of this website. Nice to know that I won't be needing to do that.
• The Phoenix Suns upset the basketball-aesthetic Gods by wearing their orange alternate uniforms at home last night and got their hats handed to them by the Lakers, of all teams. I never thought I'd say what I'm about to say, but let's hope the Wizards wear their hideous gold alternates at home tonight. Maybe the trend will continue.
• Be sure to check out one of my sister sites, Bullets Forever, for Wizards fans' takes on Washington's less-than-stellar season.
• In his lone game against Washington last season, Rashard Lewis scored 26 points... on 9-of-24 shooting, including 3-of-12 from downtown. It wasn't all bad, though; he also grabbed 10 boards.

If anything else comes up, I'll be sure to post it. As always, you can leave you pregame, during-game, and post-game thoughts in this thread. Once again, to listen to the game, check out NBA Audio League Pass.

UPDATE: Bullets Forever has its preview for tonight's game up. The author, Pradamaster, believes that Washington's Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler will have good games going against Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu.

UPDATE #2 (5:45 PM): This thought just occurred to me. Why not play Dwight Howard and Adonal Foyle together? According to PopcornMachine's game flow, Howard and Foyle were only on the floor together for 1:13 of playing time. Foyle was slated to enter for Keith Bogans in the third quarter of last night's game, but after the Magic pulled to within 10, Stan Van Gundy elected to keep Bogans on the floor. Had Foyle entered, the Magic's lineup would have been Nelson and Turkoglu at the guards, Lewis and Howard at the forwards, and Foyle at center. The combination of Howard and Foyle should have been able to rebound better than the lineup that was actually on the floor did. And given that Washington does not have a great rebounding presence -- with apologies to Brendan Haywood, who actually played well last night -- this frontcourt could be particularly effective. Just something to bear in mind.

Brian Schmitz has had it with the Kobe rumors:

Enough already.

For those excited Magic fans who have alerted me that Jerry Buss, Lakers owner and Hugh Hefner wannabe, claims he'll deal Kobe Bryant if the season unravels.....

If you want Kobe, it will cost you all-star center Dwight Howard in a trade.

Hello?

Still there?

As much as you may not want to believe it, he's right. There's no way anyone, much less the Lakers, will take Rashard Lewis and his oversized contract in a trade. Thus, Howard is the Magic's only bargaining chip in any attempt to land Kobe. Here's how the trade would probably look.

Every team should want Kobe Bryant -- he is, after all, the best player on the planet -- but not at the cost of its future. KB24 is nearing 30 years old and is at his peak; that is, he's not getting any better. Dwight Howard, on the other hand, is not yet 22 and is nowhere near his zenith.

Mortgaging your future rarely wins championships, as the Miami Heat can attest to. They unloaded Caron Butler and Lamar Odom to get Shaquille O'Neal and they won a title two years later. Now, the Heat are, for the most part, washed-up or injured. Their run is over.

Further tempering this trade scenario is Kobe's no-trade clause, which he would have to waive to be traded. I highly doubt he'd give a Magic trade his approval; Orlando is a small-market town and doesn't have enough complementary pieces to win a title. Why come here when he can go to Chicago, which is a big city and can offer enough talent to please the Lakers while still keeping enough talent to contend for a title?

Fact is, there's no way Kobe Bryant will be traded to the Orlando Magic. We should focus on more likely trade scenarios, ones which don't require us to trade our franchise player.