Not much in the tubes today.

• Mike Freeman of CBS Sportsline has nothing but nice things to say about Dwight Howard:

  When you think Howard, think Shaquille O'Neal or Patrick Ewing or Tim Duncan, but instead of O'Neal's flab there are finely tuned gams. Instead of Ewing's more plodding game fit for a schoolyard, there is finesse. Howard possesses the power Duncan never had. And Howard isn't injury prone like Yao Ming.

  (HT: Hardwood Paroxysm)

• Chad Ford (ESPN Insider) has put together a nice rundown of the free-agency situation this summer. In my dreams, Elton Brand opts-out of his deal with the Los Angeles Clippers, then signs with us for the full mid-level exception, leaving tens of millions of dollars on the table for a chance at a title. Dude doesn't need the money; he can just keep producing Werner Herzog films (Rescue Dawn!) to pay the rent.

  Like I said, in my dreams.

• Brian Schmitz writes in his blog about the importance of the Magic holding on to that third playoff seed. If we drop to fourth, we'll likely face a first-round matchup with the Toronto Raptors, with whom we do not match-up well.
• Alex Kennedy at RealGM makes the case that Hedo Turkoglu should win the league's Most Improved Player award this season. (HT: Punisher in this thread at MagicMadness)

And since there's not much in the way of Magic news, we now turn to our division rivals:

• The Atlanta Hawks are 1-4 since acquiring Mike Bibby from the Sacramento Kings. Bibby has struggled, averaging 11.8 points, 2.0 rebounds, 5.4 assists, and 3.0 turnovers as a Hawk. He's only shooting 38% from the field. Despite their poor record lately, I expect Atlanta to make the playoffs. The East is that bad.
• The Charlotte Bobcats' slim playoff hopes ended last Friday when Gerald Wallace, their leading scorer and franchise cornerstone, left a game on a stretcher after the Kings' Mikki Moore inadvertently elbowed him in the face. Wallace suffered a concussion -- his fourth in the last four seasons -- and will miss at least the next two weeks.
• The Miami Heat earned their second win since Christmas last night, blowing out the Kings, 107-86. The Heat are now 2-22 in 2008 and haven't been relevant since... well, last season. Understandably, the folks at Sactown Royalty aren't happy with last night's results.
  • Speaking of Sactown Royalty, check out this diary post I made there to caption a picture of Hedo Turkoglu and Ron Artest talking. Join the fun!
• The Washington Wizards are just 3-10 this month, and got absolutely destroyed in Houston last night, 94-69. The Wizards managed to score just 23 points in the first half. But it hasn't been all bad for Washington this week: DeShawn Stevenson had the game of his life Monday night, scoring a career-best 33 points and hitting the game-winning triple to propel the Wizards to a victory over the New Orleans Hornets. Were the playoffs to begin today, we'd play the Wizards, so they're definitely worth keeping an eye on.

Don't forget the game thread, and stay tuned: I have a fairly large post in the works for sometime later this week.

	vs.
19-28		30-18
Conseco Fieldhouse
7:00 PM
FSN Florida
Probable starters:
Travis Diener	PG	Jameer Nelson
Kareem Rush	SG	Maurice Evans
Mike Dunleavy	SF	Hedo Turkoglu
Danny Granger	PF	Rashard Lewis
Jeff Foster	C	Dwight Howard

Tonight's game against the Indiana Pacers will be a big test for the Orlando Magic. No, really, I'm serious. The Pacers are on a five-game losing streak; are just 9-12 at home; and are missing Jermaine O'Neal, their All-Star center. They're so bad, Jared from Subway didn't renew his season tickets^*. In other words, they're the sort of team to which the Magic find ways to lose games. Recall the Pacers embarrassed us at home in December, which kicked off a streak of games in which the Magic were one of the league's worst defensive teams. Incidentally, the last time we played the Pacers was also the last time we were 12 games above .500... just like we are now. Ominous.

The Pacers, like the Magic, are on the second night of a back-to-back, losing a close one to the Rockets last night, 106-103. But as David Friedman points out, the Pacers did a great job of containing Yao Ming, who scored 17 points on 4-of-12 shooting. But their focus on Yao freed-up Houston's role players, who all had solid games. The night belonged to Carl Landry (?!), who came off the bench to add 22 points. I have no doubt the Pacers can nullify Dwight Howard. But if they focus too much on him, Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis could be in for some big nights. Maybe even Brian Cook...?

The bench should be able to come up big for us as well. Pacers' point guards allow opponents to post an 18.2 PER against them, which basically means whomever they guard magically transforms into Jason Terry. Travis Diener, God love him, is not a good defender, and I have no doubt Jameer Nelson can abuse him on his way to the basket all night... provided that his foot is okay.  

Sometime before tipoff, be sure to check out Indy Cornrows for more on the Pacers. See you at 7. Go Magic.

Notes:
^*: He later explained he was unable to attend most of the games, and he hopes to re-up with the Pacers later when his schedule clears up.

So close...
Photo by Fernando Medina, NBAE/Getty Images

I'm not sure what to say about this loss. On one hand, I'm tempted to call for the heads of Sean Corbin, Tom Washington, and David Guthrie, the officials who ruled that Adonal's tip-in of Rashard Lewis' missed shot at the buzzer was too late. Replays in the arena showed that the ball was completely out of Adonal's hands before the red backboard light illuminated. ESPN has its highlight package up, and the results are inconclusive at best. Even The Dream Shake, the web's premiere Rockets blog, could have lived with the basket counting. Had the basket not been waved-off, the Magic and Rockets would have headed into overtime, where Orlando is 4-0 so far this season. However, the Magic would have been without Dwight Howard, who fouled-out trying to guard Yao Ming, and were just 7-7 at home coming into the game. Certainly, there's no guarantee that the Magic would have won in overtime.

I hate to say we lost a game because of an official, so I'm looking for a way to pin it on something else. Really, we didn't necessarily play well enough to win. Rafer Alston -- Rafer Alston! -- made what turned out to be the game-winning layup. Layup. The fact that we allowed Rafer Alston to get to the rim in the closing seconds with the game on the line alone should void our right to complain about the call at the buzzer. It's one thing if he takes and makes a contested jump-shot; it's quite another when he moseys into the paint for an uncontested layup.

Jameer was great in his new role as the sixth-man with 20 points and 4 assists, one of which was to Rashard Lewis for his game-tying three-pointer. As John Denton reported earlier today, Stan Van Gundy moved incumbent starter Keith Bogans to the bench in favor of Keyon Dooling because he believed Dooling matched-up better with Luther Head, the Rockets' starting two-guard, but Dooling did not play particularly well in his new role.

The only other thing I have to say is that Yao Ming (26 points on 10-of-18 shooting, 10 rebounds) completely outclassed Dwight Howard (16 points on 5-of-11 shooting, 8 rebounds). I'm not upset about Dwight's streak of 15 consecutive double-doubles ending; a lot of rebounds he could have gotten instead went to Hedo Turkoglu, and that streak really wasn't that important anyway. But Yao was just unstoppable tonight. When he has that fadeaway jumper going, there's no way anyone, not even Dwight, can hang with him.

Before getting into today's (brief) preview, I'd like to share this bit of news with you: Hardwood Paroxysm has taken on the task of hosting the NBA Bloggers Awards, which will be voted on by blog readers in April. I'm proud to say that my fellow bloggers have nominated Third Quarter Collapse for Rookie Blog of the Year, along with Brew Hoop, The Dinosty, Yahoo! NBA Experts, and... Hardwood Paroxysm. Thanks to my fellow bloggers, for putting me on the ballot, and to you readers, for getting the word out. You can read the full awards ballot at this link. Thank you, once again, for your support.

And now, your regularly scheduled programming...

	vs.
22-12		15-17
Amway Arena
7:00 PM
FSN Florida
Probable starters:
Carlos Arroyo	PG	Rafer Alston
Keith Bogans	SG	Luther Head
Hedo Turkoglu	SF	Shane Battier
Rashard Lewis	PF	Chuck Hayes
Dwight Howard	C	Yao Ming

The Magic handled the Rockets fairly well the last time they played, despite trailing by double-digits early on. The Rockets were playing with a hobbled Tracy McGrady, who shot just 1-of-10 before sitting out the rest of the game. No thanks to a strained tendon, he won't be in uniform tonight, much to the chagrin of the Magic fans who bought a ticket for tonight's game for the express purpose of booing him. Steve Francis, another Magic-player-turned-boo-bird-target, has dropped out of the Rockets' rotation due to sucking horribly bi-lateral quadricep tendinitis. Although we won't be able to vent our frustrations on goats from Magic seasons passed, at least we'll get to see a battle of the game's two best centers: Yao Ming and Dwight Howard.

For the record, grungedave from The Dream Shake, a new Rockets blog, has guaranteed a victory for his team tonight:

With Golden State and Boston out of the way, the Rockets should win their next four - with or without T-Mac. (Magic, Knicks, Wizards, Knicks)

19-17???

We'll see about that.

After the Nets' offensively-challenged trio of Malik Allen, Darrell Armstrong, and Jason Collins scored in double-figures against us the other night, I'm worried that one or two lightly-regarded Rockets will go nuts against us tonight. My money is on Luis Scola and Aaron Brooks, but given Houston coach Rick Adelman's inconsistent substitution patterns, there's no way to predict if they'll get enough playing time to do any damage.

On a personal note, it's a sad day in the Rock household, as we said goodbye to a dear friend. If that's all the personal information you care to know, that's fine. If you want to read just a bit more, there's another paragraph with additional information after the jump.

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Keith Bogans drives to the basket to shoot a layup over Yao Ming in the Magic's 97-92 victory over the Rockets in Houston on Wednesday night. Bogans scored 14 points in the contest.
Photo by Bill Baptist, NBAE/Getty Images

The Orlando Magic dug themselves an early hole against the Houston Rockets, trailing 20-9 early in the first quarter, but left the Toyota Center with a win thanks to a 15-0 run late in the second quarter. The final score was 97-92. Here's the boxscore.

Dwight Howard had a great game, as usual, and Keith Bogans turned in an outstanding performance as well. But the real reason the Magic won was the Rockets' complete inability to shoot. They were just 31-of-91 on the night, including a 1-of-10 performance from former Magic star Tracy McGrady. Apart from their shooting, the Rockets essentially played us evenly.

But credit the Magic's defense some too. Yao Ming, who scored a career-high 37 points in the Rockets' last matchup with the Magic, was held to just 19 points on 39% shooting tonight. Credit Dwight Howard for keeping Yao out of his comfort zone for the most part, and credit the Magic's perimeter defenders for double-teaming the Great Wall effectively.

Rashard Lewis, a Houston native, continued his offensive struggles. However, he warmed up in the fourth quarter, scoring 10 of his 13 points in the final period. He missed 10 of his 15 shot attempts, but they weren't bad looks; that is, he wasn't forcing his offense.

The Magic are in action again Friday night against the Jazz. Let's see if we can make it two wins in a row for the first time since the beginning of December.

Final notes:

• Pat Garrity reclaimed his spot in the rotation from Brian Cook and played 13 solid minutes. He scored just 2 points, but he hustled well and seemed more comfortable in the offense than Cook has. Considering his tenure with the team -- 9 seasons-- his comfort level shouldn't come as a surprise.
• Keyon Dooling shot poorly (3-of-9), but made up for it by getting to the foul line and converting 9 of his 10 attempts there. He's becoming a crafty scorer and providing us with much-needed bench offense. I'm not sure where we'd be without him.
• Rafer Alston took the Rockets' last shot, trying to tie the game at 95 with a three-pointer. The shot missed, but it wouldn't have mattered anyway; his toe was on the line. Sounds familiar.
• I'll take 8 points on 3-of-4 shooting from Mo "Mogans" Evans every night.
• It's a shame that Derrick McKey ever played basketball. I have nothing against him, but his nickname was "Heavy D." Wouldn't that work perfectly for Dwight? Can he steal that, please?

	vs.
12-12		17-9
Toyota Center
8:30 PM
Sun Sports HD
Probable starters:
Steve Francis	PG	Jameer Nelson
Tracy McGrady	SG	Keith Bogans
Shane Battier	SF	Hedo Turkoglu
Chuck Hayes	PF	Rashard Lewis
Yao Ming	C	Dwight Howard

News as it happens. See you at 8:30.

	vs.
3-9		11-3
Amway Arena
7:00 PM
FSN Florida
Probable starters:
Jason Williams	PG	Jameer Nelson
Dwyane Wade	SG	Keith Bogans
Ricky Davis	SF	Hedo Turkoglu
Udonis Haslem	PF	Rashard Lewis
Shaquille O'Neal	C	Dwight Howard

25 words or fewer: Surging Orlando faces off against division rival Miami in an early-season matchup with plenty of subplots.

Know your enemy: The Heat beat the Rockets last night. Shaquille O'Neal reverted back to championship form in scoring 26 points and grabbing 14 rebounds while simultaneously holding Yao Ming to 20 points and 7 rebounds.

Useless information: The Heat went with an eight-man rotation last night. Fatigue may be a factor, especially for their backcourt; both Wade and Williams played 40-plus minutes.

I'll be at the game tonight. Let's see if the Magic can add another win to their total before embarking on a long West-Coast swing.

UPDATE: Added a poll. Will you be cheering or booing Miami's former Magic players in their return to Orlando this evening?

Let's get to it, shall we?

• J.A. Adande writes in this countdown of this season's NBA storylines that if the Magic improve this season it will be due to Dwight Howard and Jameer Nelson, not Rashard Lewis. Adande thinks that the death of Jameer's father has made him more aggressive, and he'll be a better player for it. We'll see.
• John Hollinger, known mostly for his basketball metrics, was with the Magic and Cavaliers in China. He has some observations here and speculates that the Magic may make an offer to Wang Zhizhi, who looked impressive in Team China's exhibition loss to the Magic last week. Wang, a 7'0" center, has career  NBA averages of 4.4 points and 1.7 rebounds in 9.2 minutes per game. His last stint in the NBA was with Miami in 2004/2005, where he finished behind only Shaquille O'Neal and Dwyane Wade in PER. Hmmmm...
• Raptors coach Sam Mitchell (from the Toronto Star via TrueHoop) thinks the NBA should count the "hockey assist" -- the pass that leads to a pass that leads to a made basket -- as an official NBA statistic. It's hard to disagree with him. Tom Ziller believes that counting these passes would greatly improve Jameer Nelson's assist totals.
• J.J. Redick's poor shooting and defense in last week's exhibition games, combined with Keith Bogans' resurgence, has made Bogans the favorite to start at shooting guard on opening night, writes John Denton. Thanks to Black and Blue for pointing it out first.
• Over at Believing in Magic, Damien Nielsen writes that Dwight Howard is "on the verge of something great." To illustrate his point, he includes a picture of Dwight dunking on Yao Ming, which has since been added to my rotation of Magic screen-saver images. Thanks, Damien!
• One of our division rivals, the Charlotte Bobcats, will be without the services of Adam Morrison this season after he tore his ACL in a preseason game. The Bobcats were already missing Sean May, another regular rotation player, who is out for the year following knee surgery.
• FreeDarko is writing one-sentence previews for every player in the league this season, with bold statements like "Dooling, Keyon: injures himself at Epcot Center." Here is A-F.

UPDATE - Here are two more links for you:

• The Orlando Sentinel reports that Rashard Lewis practiced last Friday and is expected to play in Thursday's exhibition game against the San Antonio Spurs.
• I've finally found photographic evidence of J.J. Redick's fauxhawk, which I alluded to at halftime of Saturday morning's game against the Cavaliers. The light behind J.J. highlights the fact that it goes from front to back, which is an absolutely awful look. Let's hope he switches back to what works when the season starts.

After the jump, your unofficial 2007/2008 season-opening Orlando Magic depth chart.

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I don't get NBA TV where I live, and NBA Audio League Pass doesn't seem to be working, so I'm being forced to follow today's game via the blogs of Brian Schmitz and John Denton. Schmitz says the Magic lead by 25 points at the half after falling behind early, while Denton writes that the Magic shot 17-of-18 in the second quarter. James Augustine, of all people, has 10 points and 4 rebounds.

The starting lineup tonight was Jameer Nelson, Keith Bogans, Hedo Turkoglu, Pat Garrity, and Dwight Howard. The Chinese National Team, which is without Yao Ming and Yi Jianlian, features former NBA players Wang Zhizhi and Olumide Oyedeji (remember him?) as well as future NBA player Sun Yue, whose rights are owned by the Los Angeles Lakers.

John Hollinger, the statistical whiz who derived Player Efficiency Rating (PER), has released his projected 2007/2008 PER statistics for every player who played at least 500 minutes last season. PER is, as he explains it to Henry Abbott of TrueHoop:

Anyway, PER is a per-minute rating of a player's statistical productivity. It's great for measuring a player's "tangibles"; the one area it struggles is with defense because so much of that remains a black box for the analytical community.

I use it so much because it makes it very easy to make comparisons between players who play differing minutes, or in different systems or what-not -- comparisons which, using conventional stats, are almost impossible.

Here is how PER is derived:

I base the projections on a tool called similarity scores.

For each player, I use as a comparison the players from the past 20 years who are the most similar, based on age, height and stats over the past three seasons. Some players will have more comparables than others, depending on how unusual they are -- guys with freak heights (Yao Ming, Earl Boykins), freak ages (Dikembe Mutombo) or freak stats (Andrei Kirilenko) will have relatively few, while a more generic player like Al Harrington or Devin Brown could have over a hundred.

From that point, I see what their most similar players did a year later, and project those changes onto the stats of the player being studied. So, for example, the reason that Yao Ming's PER is projected to rise sharply this year is because the most similar players also saw their PERs increase sharply at the same age; similarly, Andre Miller is expected to tank because a number of similar players hit the wall at his age.

PER is normalized each year to 15; that is, if you have a PER of 15, you're an average player. After the jump, I've posted a table showing how Magic players fared last year, as well as Hollinger's projections for them this year, and their difference. Alternatively, you can click here to view the predictions directly on ESPN.com. While the raw numbers are free, the player profiles are not.

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