So, about the upcoming draft...

The Magic's chances of getting an impact player with the 22nd overall pick are pretty slim, to put it charitably. Ryan Schwan of Hornets247 exhaustively crunched numbers from every draft pick in the NBA from 1984 to 2005 and came up with a nifty table that outlines those picks' performance based on a letter-grade scale. Here, he describes players taken with picks 20-28:

20-28 continues the trend, with more players falling into the grades D and F(67%) though it is still possible to land a good player. The odds are that one of the players picked in this range will at least be a starter, and another one will land in a rotation. The rest? Not so good.

Indeed, 37% of all players drafted 20th-28th got a grade of "F", which Schwan defines as a player who "never developed and earned minor minutes." Additionally, the data show the Magic are equally as likely to draft a guy who will not play a single minute in the NBA than they are to draft a star (5% each).

For the record, the Magic have owned the 22nd overall pick once before in their history: 2001. They selected Jeryl Sasser, who lasted just 2 seasons in the NBA, both of them with the Magic. It's not hard to imagine why his career ended so early: his averages (2.5 points, 2.3 rebounds, 0.8 assists, 30.3% FGs) are simply horrendous. And to think this guy went 6 picks ahead of Tony Parker.

Oy. I'm getting to be as bad as Buzz Killington.

However, it's not all gloom-and-doom. There haven't been many great 22nd overall picks in recent memory (you have to go back to the 1987 draft to find Reggie Lewis, the last All-Star drafted 22nd) but some players taken 23-30 have worked out okay. Just ask the Celtics (Kendrick Perkins), Lakers (Jordan Farmar, Sasha Vujacic), Pistons (Jason Maxiell, Tayshaun Prince), and Spurs (Tony Parker), the four teams still standing this season, each of which gets key contributions from recent late-first round draft picks. Sure, the odds are decidedly against us getting anyone of that caliber, especially given the questionable draft history of Otis Smith and Dave Twardzik, but it's not impossible.

As for whom the Magic might select, I can't say for sure, but my three favorite NBA Draft sites can. Bookmark this 3QC Mock Draft Summary page for regular updates from DraftExpress, NBADraft.net, and Ridiculous Upside.

Orlando Magic coach Stan Van Gundy takes questions at the press conference following his team's elimination from the playoffs at the hands of the Detroit Pistons last night.

Photo by Allen Einstein, NBAE/Getty Images

The last The Morning After post of the 2007/2008 season is here. Let's go around the tubes:

• Henry Abbott, TrueHoop:

  Anyone besides me disappointed in Orlando's offense down the stretch last night? (Highlights.)No one created a shot for anybody else. Almost nobody could get to the rim down the stretch. We had, essentially, Keith Bogans or Rashard Lewis hitting threes, or the occasional Hedo Turkoglu drive. And when the ball went to Dwight Howard, the Pistons just took it away. It was hard to watch. Most of the credit surely goes to the Pistons' defense, especially that majestic Tayshaun Prince shot, but I'm thinking that team needs a ball-handler who can create opportunities under duress.

  Yeah, the offense indeed stagnated last night. It almost looked like -- gulp -- Brian Hill was coaching that team. Incidentally, I think Nelson can be that ball-handler, in time.

• Kelly Dwyer, Ball Don't Lie:

  And so we say goodbye to the Orlando Magic, mindful of and unsurprised by the limitations that are sending the team home in the second round, but hopeful that the learning process and improvin' season has just begun.

  Dwyer includes his take on what the Magic need to do this offseason to become true contenders in 08/09. I'll refer back to it later this summer.

• Matt Watson, FanHouse:

  It's difficult to convey context in a sound bite, but after listening and watching Nelson address the media before and after three of the five games in this series, it's obvious the man is more competitive and confident than arrogant. His prediction didn't come true, but that's not to say his team didn't gain the respect of every person in Detroit's locker room. As Flip Saunders said during his post-game press conference, "They're a team that's going to be here a long time."

  I wasn't too pleased with Jameer after he stunk-up the offense in Game Four, but he's undoubtedly the leader of this team and he's earned my respect. I liked that he guaranteed a win. He has a great attitude and I'm happy he's a part of this team's future... although five years and $35 million is a bit more than I would have offered him...

• Bethlehem Shoals, The Sporting Blog:

  Wide: I probably said this before the last Pistons/Magic game, and ended up being wrong. Now it's come true. Rodney Stuckey will be darn good -- judging by tonight, he is already -- and will have many more playoff performances like this before his days are through. Plus his emergence is eerily similar to that of Tayshaun in the championship year.

  Trading the pick that yielded Stuckey may go down as the worst move in the Otis Smith/Dave Twardzik era. In Otis' defense, the trade looked pretty good at the time, and we got some solid production out of Carlos Arroyo until he fell off the face of the earth. Seriously. Matt from Hardwood Paroxysm asked me the other day, "What happened to Arroyo?" and I had to think for a second about to whom he might be referring.

  I forgot he was on the team.

• Basketbawful:

  Orlando managed to miss 12 freethrows and commit 21 turnovers...which led to 34 points for the Pistons. So basically -- MATH ALERT!! -- the Magic gave Detroit 46 free points, which is a lot to give away in a 5-point loss.

  As you can imagine, there's much more where that came from. Basketbawful never runs out of things to say about bad teams.

• The Blowtorch (channelling Hedo Turkoglu in the Magic's timeout before their last meaningful possession):

  Duh-white, do not have worry. Hedo will make basketball dunk shot for to win game. Only 2 points is dunk shot, so Hedo make two dunk shot. 4 point!

  Read the whole post in all its irreverent glory. I laughed a lot, and maybe I cried a little.

• Natalie, Need4Sheed:

  Surprisingly Dwight Howard walked off court as Rasheed Wallace was waling over to shake his hand after the game. Turkoglu bolted too.

  I'm a bit disappointed that the Magic didn't show good sportsmanship at the end, but then again, I'm not the one whose season the Pistons ended.

• Pradamaster, Bullets Forever:

  Capped-out Magic: Orlando's departure means the Southeast Division won't be represented in the Eastern Conference finals for the second straight season. It also gives me hope, because unless Otis Smith pulls a rabbit out of his hat, this might be the best Orlando has to offer in the future. About the only person from which we can expect internal development is Dwight Howard.

  I have a feeling PM might be onto something here. We'll look at the cap situation in a future post. Several posts, in all likelihood.

• Steve Weinman, CelticsBlog:

  This was an Orlando team that spent an entire season talking about how it wasn't getting enough love from the media, about how it belonged right up there with the rest of the Eastern elite.

  [....]

  This Magic team simply isn't there yet.

  I agree with Steve on that last point: the Magic aren't there yet. But I still don't think the Magic got enough credit for what they were able to accomplish in a single season. They're still better than the Cavaliers, and might have been able to beat the Celtics in a seven-game series if they had the opportunity. However, the road to Eastern Conference respectability runs through Auburn Hills. We'll be fine next year.

• Doug Smith, the Toronto Star:

  Okay, so some of us are out last night celebrating the Media Relations Staff Of The Year Banquet and Buntoss (replete with food, fun, frivolity and a cocktail or two) and I swear I looked up at the television and saw Marcin Gortat and Walter Herrmann on the court at the same time in the Orlando-Detroit game.

  I'm thinking if I could have seen Alex Radojevic guarding Mengke Bateer in a playoff game that might be the only better matchup. Maybe.

  The NBA: Where You Never Know Happens.

  I included this post because it mentioned Marcin Gortat. That's it.

Okay, so a ton of links later, where do we stand? On shaky ground. Any respect we earned in the regular season -- and there wasn't much of it -- is gone now. But we have all offseason to worry about that. 3QC isn't going anywhere. Stay tuned for posts recapping the season, evaluating players' performance, discussing the draft and free-agency period, and so on.

Go Magic.

Hedo Turkoglu covers his nose after taking an elbow from a Detroit player. His Magic lose, 91-86, and were eliminated in the Eastern Conference Semifinals.

Photo by Allen Einstein, NBAE/Getty Images

21 and 3.

Those are the only numbers that matter when discussing this game. The Magic turned the ball over 21 times and forced just three turnovers themselves. Logic indicates that disparity won't get it done on any level of basketball, yet we almost stole one from Detroit tonight.

But in the end, the Pistons prevailed thanks to their clutch free-throw shooting and defense, not necessarily in that order. Looking at their defense -- not just the deflections, steals, and transition baskets, but the whole thing -- it's hard to imagine them losing more than three or four games the rest of the postseason. We actually performed (relatively) above-average in this series, with an offensive rating of 105.9, which slightly exceeds the Pistons' regular-season defensive rating of 104.2. But that's a bit misleading, because the Pistons really turn up the defensive heat when it counts the most. For most of the game, the Pistons play great defense. In crunch-time, they take it to a whole other level. We already saw the Pistons hold the Magic to 25% shooting in the fourth quarter of Game Three. Tonight, the Pistons held the Magic to 0 field goals for the first 8:18 of the final period. I repeat: the Pistons, missing their best player, held a 52-win team with the league's fifth-most efficient offense without a bucket for 8-plus fourth-quarter minutes.

We did plenty of things wrong tonight, but showed some poise at the end. We could have folded after watching the Pistons go on a 17-4 run to start the fourth period, but we didn't, going on a 7-1 run of our own to draw to within 1 point. A Rasheed Wallace miss careened out-of-bounds off a Magic player with 20 seconds to play, giving the Pistons had the ball and, more than likely, the game. The Magic were forced to foul, Rip Hamilton nailed his free throws (note: this is a pun; check the notes after the jump), but we still had a chance, trailing by 3.

On the last Magic possession of Game Four, Hedo Turkoglu took too much time sizing up Detroit's defense, giving his team no chance to get an offensive board if he missed the shot... which he did, as we know. Tonight, he wasted little time: he made up his mind that he would drive to his right around the defense of Tayshaun Prince and dunk the ball, cutting Detroit's lead to 1 and forcing the Pistons to enter a foul-shooting competition.

Prince had other ideas.

Although Turkoglu got the step on Prince, the lanky forward was recovered quickly enough to swoop in and block the dunk cleanly at the rim. Stop what you're doing right now (which is, I would hope, reading this post) and head over to Need4Sheed to look at the video. I'll give you a few seconds to pick your jaw up off the floor and/or wipe the tears from your eyes.

Back? Okay. Good.

After the Magic fouled, Hamilton made two free throws to boost the lead to 5, and Detroit had the game in-hand.

And in a game marred by sloppy play by the Magic, it's fitting that their next possession ended with a turnover. Keith Bogans, firing the ball in from the left sideline, wanted to pass to Turkoglu, who cut toward the baseline under Pistons' basket. Bogans lead him too far and the ball sailed out of bounds. DEE-troit BAS-ket-ball. Hamilton hits two free throws. Bogans comes down the other end and makes a meaningless fingeroll, the Pistons inbound, and the clock expires.

FIN.

But even in this close game in which they turned the ball over on one-quarter of their possessions (?!), the Magic might have been in it, or even won, if they had just made their damn free throws. Instead, they let their playoff inexperience show, and connected on 16 of their 28 free throws. As expected, Dwight Howard "lead" the way in the CLANK department, going 6-of-15 from the stripe. Howard's a notoriously awful foul shooter, but 40% is bad, even for him. Rashard Lewis, a usually accurate free throw shooter, went 4-of-6.

Throughout this season, many Magic fans found themselves lamenting a lack of a "Plan B" for the team to use when its three-pointers weren't falling. Tonight, their gameplan was to get Howard -- who struggled in Game Four, shooting 3-of-12 for 8 points -- involved in the offense early. And the team used this plan to a fault; they drove it into the ground. Several times in the first quarter, Lewis got the ball on the wing and assumed the triple-threat position, yet kept his eyes locked on Howard.

And locked.

And locked.

And rather than pass the ball to somebody else, or dribble, or shoot, or anything, Lewis would throw the ball to Dwight, even though both Lewis' and Howard's defenders had their hands in the passing lanes. The result? Turnovers. As we mentioned.

But it wasn't all bad, I suppose. Jameer Nelson, heavily (and unfairly -- I still can't get over that) criticized for his guarantee of a Magic victory, did his part to aid his team's cause. He scored 14 on 6-of-7 shooting, including 2-of-3 from beyond the arc. And he played solid defense on Rodney Stuckey for most of the night, although Stuckey warmed up as the game progressed. He showed poise, unlike Howard, his co-captain, who always looks flustered when he plays the Pistons. I hope some Pistons fans will at least respect Nelson's effort.

Perhaps surprisingly, this loss doesn't bother me too much. Yes, we played poorly, but it wasn't the sort of lazy/awful brand of basketball that killed us in our December-through-January slump. Yes, our season is over, but for the first time in a long time, we know we'll be back, and better, next season. We're relevant again, and have earned some respect around the league -- not enough, but some, which is more than we had last year.

And, on a more selfish note, the season ending allows me to do stuff I've missed out on over the past several months: spending time with my girlfriend, spending time with my cat, reading for fun, etc. And I can sleep easily knowing that this year was only the beginning of the climb back to elite status in this league.

So, Detroit advances to the Eastern Conference Finals for the sixth straight year. We can only hope to have similar success. Kudos to the Pistons and to their fans.

Two brief game notes after the jump.

Continue reading this post »

Looks like we have an (unofficial) explanation regarding the no-call that I got a bit huffy over earlier today. Read that post first, if you haven't already, then continue with this one.

LawyerBoy at Detroit Bad Boys suggests that Callahan was going to signal a charging foul on Hedo Turkoglu, but when he saw the shot rim-out, he decided there wouldn't be any point in calling the foul because all it'd do is prolong the game, which had been decided. Watch the video again and you'll see what he means.

After the jump, and by a Pistons fan's request, I take a frame-by-frame look at a no-call earlier in the game that benefitted the Magic.

Continue reading this post »

Hedo Turkoglu rubs Jameer Nelson's head during a break in the action in Saturday evening's Orlando Magic/Detroit Pistons game. Detroit won, 90-89, to take a commanding 3-1 series lead.

Photo by Doug Benc, Getty Images

This game was ours for the taking, but we didn't take it. We had an 11-point halftime lead and bumped it up to 15 with a Maurice Evans three-pointer. All we had to do was to get two more stops and two more baskets. That's it. We could have gone up by 19 points and the Pistons would surely have packed it in. Instead, they went on a backbreaking 15-0 run, capped off by a fast-break dunk by Richard Hamilton.

And in the end, we only needed one basket to win. Tayshaun Prince hit a floater in the lane (thanks to an Antonio McDyess offensive rebound) to put the Pistons ahead, 90-89. Hedo Turkoglu, who scored 13 of his 20 points in the period, missed a driving layup over Prince at the buzzer to end the game and, essentially, the series. But it should not have come to that. We wasted too many opportunities to blame the loss squarely on Hedo's missed layup. Take a look at this laundry list of miscues:

• Dwight Howard's missed dunk (2:28, first quarter). This dunk wasn't heavily contested. Dwight reached back with one hand and simply threw it too hard into the back iron.
• Keyon Dooling's bad pass (11:30, second quarter). The scorer credited Keyon with the turnover, but this one was Dwight's fault. After screening for Keyon on the right baseline, Howard rolled to the basket and was wide-open. Keyon delivered a crisp bounce pass, but Howard bobbled it, and Jason Maxiell recovered for Detroit.
• Jameer Nelson's missed free throws (take your pick). Nelson, shooting 83.9% from the stripe this postseason, went just 2-of-6 from the line tonight. Sure, other guys missed free throws -- Rashard Lewis was 1-of-2 and Hedo was 4-of-5 -- but Nelson's misses simply stand out more. His miss with 44 seconds remaining kept the score 89-88, our favor. If he had made it, Tayshaun Prince's floater with 8.9 left in the game would have tied the score, not given the Pistons the lead.

Obviously, I'm disappointed we lost, but we still got some great efforts:

• Hedo was huge in the fourth quarter, as I mentioned.
• Maurice Evans played his tail off and scored 15 points.
• Keith Bogans had 6 points and 7 boards (?!) off the bench, and he showed a new dimension in his game: the driving layup. Both of his field goals were of that variety, and they were both "and-one" plays. A shaky foul shooter, Bogans converted on both his tries.
• In just 3 minutes, Marcin Gortat showed flashes of brilliance, scoring on a beautiful hook from the left baseline (over Rasheed Wallace, no less) and on a layup. The final total for Marcin: 4 points, 1 rebound, and 1 block in just 3 minutes.

I say "just" 3 minutes for Marcin because he should have been on the floor longer. Dwight Howard had arguably his worst offensive performance as a professional, with 8 points on 3-of-12 shooting. He didn't make any shots after the first quarter. The Pistons took him out of the game by muscling him as he shot, and he did not get the benefit of the whistle. Perhaps intimidated, by their defense, he also rushed a few shots, including one put-back (3:08, second quarter) that the threw entirely too hard off the glass; all he needed to do was grab the rebound, come down with it, gather himself, and go up for the jam. With more rest -- he played the entire second half! -- he might have been able to tip-in Hedo's missed layup at the final buzzer. He might have been able to box-out McDyess (who finished with 14 rebounds) more effectively. And something tells me that Gortat would have been able to hold his own in Dwight's absence. But we'll never know for sure.

After Game Three, Yahoo!'s Kelly Dwyer wrote that we let the Pistons creep back into the game because "Jameer Nelson really enjoys shooting 20-foot jumpers." It's true. Nelson tends to settle for the jump-shot too frequently, and especially at the ends of quarters. He ended the Magic's last three first-quarter possessions on jump-shots, making the first and missing the next two. He finished with 6 assists and just 1 turnover, which is fantastic, but the 6-of-14 shooting isn't. And we covered the free-throw shooting.

That's a wrap, both for this recap and for this series. Game Five is Tuesday night in Detroit, and I expect the Pistons to close it out in big fashion on their home floor. They've earned it. Of course, I won't complain if the Magic steal one there... but I wouldn't bank on it.

Rashard Lewis celebrates after drilling one of his five three-pointers in the Orlando Magic's 111-86 rout of the Detroit Pistons. Lewis scored a career playoff-high 33 points.

Photo by Doug Benc, NBAE/Getty Images

The Orlando Magic came out blazing against the Detroit Pistons tonight, jumping out to an early 24-8 lead in the first quarter, and staved off a third-quarter run by the Pistons to clean their clock pummel them by a 25-point margin, 111-86.

First, I have to encourage us to curb our enthusiasm: it's only one game. When some Pistons fans left my section late in the fourth quarter, Magic fans taunted them unmercifully, but one Piston fan held up two fingers on one hand and one on the other to symbolize the Pistons still have a 2-1 lead in the series. Further, Detroit was without its best player for all but the first 3 minutes of the game, as Chauncey Billups left with a strained hamstring and did not return. Last, this Pistons team has a poor record in Game Threes, as Orlando Sentinel writer David Whitley mentioned after the game.

But...

The Pistons still got 19 points from Billups' backup, Rodney Stuckey, and got 24 points from their best scoring threat, Richard Hamilton. When Stuckey left after acquiring his second foul, Tayshaun Prince ran the offense well as a point forward and the Pistons played the Magic essentially evenly, outscoring them 16-15 until Stuckey checked back in to run the point. Most importantly, Billups would not have changed the Pistons defense -- or lack thereof -- on Rashard Lewis, who saved his best offensive night for the Magic's most important game of the season. Lewis was simply unstoppable, scoring 33 points on 15 shots (!), taking only what the defense gave him and not forcing the issue. Stan Van Gundy called plenty of isolation plays for him, more than any other game this season, and Lewis converted with a variety of drives. He also had the signature shot of the game to start the fourth quarter. Matched up at the top of the key with Rasheed Wallace, a great defender, right in his face, Lewis jab-stepped a few times, faked, fired, and drilled a three to give the Magic a 76-69 lead. That shot, moreso than the three-pointer Keyon Dooling hit just moments later, sealed the game as a win for us, at least as far as I'm concerned.

But the Dooling three was pretty tremendous. The circumstances around it are as follows: a Dwight Howard missed free throw caromed out long to the right wing. Stuckey grabbed the rebound on the sideline before losing his balance and falling out-of-bounds right in front of Detroit's bench. Initially, official Joe DeRosa signaled for the Magic to get possession. But after Pistons coach Flip Saunders said a few words to him, DeRosa changed the call to a foul on Hedo Turkoglu. On the ensuing (and wrongfully awarded) possession, Rasheed Wallace missed a long two-pointer. The Magic got the rebound and pushed the ball ahead to Dooling, who hit the shot to give the Magic an 80-69 lead.

Another word on Wallace: he was not at his best tonight. He got in foul trouble, jawed with the refs, and the Amway Arena crowd rewarded him with the most vociferous booing it's given any other opponent this season, louder than even the one it gave former Magic players Shaquille O'Neal and Grant Hill in their returns with new teams.

But as big as Lewis was, the difference in the game was Dwight Howard. He had "only" 12 rebounds, but dominated defensively and proved to be, as one in-arena sign termed it, "Pystonite." His six swatted shots discouraged further Pistons penetration, forcing them to take midrange shots, some of which they still managed to convert. Still, I'd rather Detroit score two points via a contested jumper than via a layup, so I can live with those makes.

So, which team should we favor to win Game Four? I'm undecided. On the one hand, our offense has improved in each game and the Pistons might be without Billups, who won't be at 100% even if he does play. On the other hand, this thumping may have woken the Pistons up, and they could come out looking for blood Saturday and effectively end the series with a win. Additionally, as Brian from Empty the Bench points out, the Pistons made a game of it late in the third quarter even with all the odds (no Billups, foul trouble for Wallace, no offense from Jason Maxiell) stacked against them:

And, still, the Pistons whittled the Magic's lead down to just 3 points by the end of the 3rd quarter. Orlando rattled off a 9-0 run to the start the 4th, however, and the Pistons never recovered

 

All the credit in the world to Orlando for their Game 3 win. They deserved it. [....] I'm not convinced they [The Magic] will [win Game 4] though. And I'm not convinced they'll win another game in the 2008 playoffs, period.

Anyway, let's savor this win as best we can tonight... and savor our free donut tomorrow morning.

Note: I wrote this post before last night's Game Two between the Magic and the Pistons.

Last week, Ellen of the Cavaliers blog And One posted this thoughtful rundown of mental toughness in sports using a 2007 article from The Sports Psychologist as a backdrop. As the Magic face the Detroit Pistons, a team famous for playing mind games with its opponents, in these playoffs, it seems pertinent to discuss the Pistons' mental advantage: other than skill, what sets them apart from the Magic?

The Sports Psychologist article which Ellen referenced breaks-up mental toughness into this framework. Refer to the scans at And One for the full explanation of each sub-category:

1. Attitude/Mindset
   • Belief
   • Focus
2. Training
   • Using long-term goals as the source of motivation
   • Controlling the environment
   • Pushing yourself to the limit
3. Competition
   • Handling pressure
   • Belief
   • Regulating performance
   • Staying focused
   • Awareness and control of thoughts and feelings
   • Controlling the environment
4. Postcompetition
   • Handling failure
   • Handling success

The branch in which I have the most interest is "Attitude/mindset." How do the inexperienced Magic, in just the second year of the Dwight Howard Playoff Era, compare with the veteran Pistons, which have made the Eastern Conference Finals in each of the last five seasons with the same core of players? One of the tenets of "Attitude/mindset," as the article explains, is "Having and unshakable self-belief as a result of total awareness of how you got to where you are now." Consider that, then examine this quote from Pistons guard Chauncey Billups, courtesy John Denton:

"That's what we do. We play physical and we feed off other teams when they try to be physical on us," he said. "It's like somebody coming to you house and doing exactly what you wanted. They feed right into what you wanted them to do. (The Magic) play hard, but they don't play as physical as us, but they shoot that three-pointer. If they can do that, they have a chance. But if they want to rough it up, it's going to be tough."

Of course, the Magic know what they have to do. Here's Keyon Dooling, from the same Denton article:

"More so than getting caught up in their physical game, we've got to take care of us," Dooling said. "We've got to make our shots and do what we've been doing all year."

Another tenet is "Having an inner arrogance that makes you believe that you can achieve anything you set your mind to." If there's any single word that describes the Pistons' demeanor, it's "arrogant." Heck, it sure didn't take long for Pistons center Theo Ratliff, who's been with the Pistons for fewer than three months, to adopt Detroit's trademark swag:

"Look at the [veteran big] guys we have. We've already played against the greatest who ever played -- Hakeem [Olajuwan], [Patrick] Ewing, David Robinson -- there is nobody we haven't seen or guarded," said Pistons backup center Theo Ratliff. "Sure, Dwight is an imposing player, but it's not something we're really worried about."

The Pistons aren't worried about containing Howard, the Magic's All-Star center and overall best player? Well, why should they be? His attitude in this series leaves much to be desired. Let's set the scene with two quotes, the first from Pistons forward Jason Maxiell, one of the four different Pistons who defended Dwight in Game One, telling reporters explaining how he and his teammates held our Superman in-check:

"You pretty much just have to get underneath him [Howard] and you're OK," Maxiell said. "He has really strong, broad shoulders, but you get down low and take his legs out from under him. He's not very powerful down low because his legs aren't very strong. There are ways to play him."

When informed of these comments, Magic coach Stan Van Gundy agreed with Maxiell's assessment, saying that Dwight needs a "stronger base." But Dwight himself disagreed, saying flatly, "That's not true. Trust me." So Dwight says he believes in himself, but does that sound bite actually convince you of anything? If anything, it sounds like Dwight's trying to convince himself.

But it gets worse. After the game, Howard said, "I don't think I even looked up at the scoreboard for a while. It's disappointing." Those are disconcertingly weak words for a guy who dominated the first round of the playoffs by having three games of 20-plus points and 20-plus rebounds in the series. Where are those performances? Where is the intensity he showed in the first round when he earned a technical foul after getting in Carlos Delfino's face after Delfino tried to hack him on a dunk attempt? Maybe Rasheed Wallace was right when he likened Dwight to his "intern." Dwight can't be afraid to man-up against Wallace or any of his teammates.

It should go without saying that Dwight Howard is the Magic's key to success, now and in the future. He must get himself back on track after a disastrous Game One in which he scored 12 points and grabbed 8 rebounds -- well below his averages. The Magic have no chance to win this series with Dwight struggling so mightily, especially when Tayshaun Prince shuts-down Hedo Turkoglu, the Magic's other big scoring threat. "Superman" must punish Maxiell, Wallace, Ratliff, and Antonio McDyess -- the foursome which RaptorsForum dubbed Detroit's "Legion of Doom" -- by attacking the basket as soon as he receives the ball and by being more active on the offensive boards. The Pistons are a great team, to be sure, but they aren't invincible. Dwight can be, when he wants to.

Advantage, Magic.

The Magic's Jameer Nelson tied for the team lead in scoring with 22 points, but it didn't matter, as Orlando fell to Detroit, 100-93, facing a 2-0 series deficit in its best-of-seven Eastern Conference Semifinals matchup.

Photo by Allen Einstein, NBAE/Getty Images

Let's get one thing out of the way: the Magic did not lose tonight's game because of the three-point basket that the Pistons were erroneously awarded at the end of the third quarter. Odenized (who else?) has the video of the whole bizarre sequence at YouTube:

As you can see, the game-clock malfunctioned, and only three-tenths of a section went off the clock despite the Pistons inbounding the ball, taking three dribbles, passing, taking another dribble, then passing again to Chauncey Billups for the shot.

That basket gave the Pistons a 78-76 lead heading into the fourth quarter. The Magic had 12 minutes to overcome a two-point deficit. Yes, they should have started the quarter with a one-point lead, but there's no way to guarantee that it would have made any difference. A lot can happen in 12 minutes of basketball, so let's not waste our time complaining about an error the officials were not even allowed to fix, given the current replay rules, and instead use in constructively on figuring out why we lost.

First, we turned the ball over entirely too much (19 turnovers on 87 possessions), forcing the issue early in the game and down the stretch. Rashard Lewis, Hedo Turkoglu, and Dwight Howard combined for 17 of those turnovers, although we can attribute most of Dwight's miscues to soreness in his left thumb, which made it hard for him to hang onto passes. Our gameplan seemed to be "get the ball to Dwight!" and, although it worked well when executed, both Lewis and Turkoglu were guilty of telegraphing their entry passes, which the Pistons easily deflected or stole. Turkoglu in particular had a horrible offensive game. His rushed three-point jumper -- there were 21 seconds on the shot clock. Turk! -- with the Magic down 2 points and 48 seconds to play doomed us. It's bad enough he shot it just 3 seconds into the possession. What makes it worse is the fact that he did not set his feet OR follow through. Our greatest fears have come true: Hedo, our greatest fourth-quarter player, has developed a hero complex.

This shot was eerily similar to the fadeaway three for which he settled at the buzzer of the Magic's 103-102 loss to the Timberwolves in mid-April. After that game, Magic coach Stan Van Gundy said, "I didn't like the shot because he wasn't set." Well, I hope Hedo hears it from Stan and from the media after tonight's game: that rushed shot, more than anything else we did offensively, doomed us.

There's also the matter of defense. We held Richard Hamilton to 14 points on 4-of-18 shooting, but we had no answer for Detroit's other three big guns: Billups, Tayshaun Prince, and Rasheed Wallace combined for 62 points on 23-of-42 shooting. Now, Billups' total -- 28 -- is a bit nflated due to the fouling we did late in the game when it got out of hand, and Jameer Nelson was no slouch offensively with 22 points of his own. Still, when Wallace and Prince create mismatches like that, Detroit is tough to beat. We simply don't have an answer for those two players. Prince is too quick for Turkoglu to guard, yet too tall for Maurice Evans to guard. Similarly, Wallace has too much range for Dwight to handle, yet too good a post game for Rashard to handle. And that, in a nutshell, is how the Pistons have stayed on top of the East for so long: they have four guys who can beat tyou, by themselves, on any given night.

But let's give ourselves some credit for fighting back from a fourteen-point deficit against a superior team on its home floor. Let's also credit the Pistons, for clamping down on defense when it mattered most: we scored 17 points on 25 fourth-quarter possessions for an offensive rating of 68.0.

Let me recognize some strong efforts from our guys before I wrap this thing up: Jameer's 22 points were fantastic, and tonight was his best game against Detroit by far in his career. People may point to Billups' gaudy 28 points, but that doesn't tell the whole story. Jameer took, and made, some big shots of his own, and his five three-pointers are the only reason we were in the game in the second half anyway. And Dwight Howard, with 22 points and 18 rebounds, was tremendous. He fared well against each Piston who defended him, even throwing down a furious two-handed slam in the face of that #42 fellow on the Pistons, the one whose name escapes me.

Photo by Gregory Shamus, Getty Images

Dwight did a lot of the dirty work tonight and recovered nicely from his poor Game One effort.

I don't know the exact statistic, but if memory serves, when the team with home-court advantage in a seven-game series wins its first two games, it goes on to win the series 94% of the time. But I'm not counting us out quite yet. Turnovers and boneheaded shot-selection aside, we still played a heckuva game tonight, and as I said in the Hoops Addict podcast I did last night, there's no shame in losing to a better team, especially when you put up a fight, which we did tonight.

For more on tonight's game, check out Matt Watson's pregame interview with Rashard Lewis. Also check out this unscientific poll at OrlandoSentinel.com, in which 76% of respondents blame poor officiating for the Magic's loss tonight, at least at the time of this post.

The Magic lead the Pistons at halftime by a score of 52-45. Huh?!

• Orlando Magic points in the first quarter: 20
• Keith Bogans and Keyon Dooling points in the second quarter: 19

To quote the late Vince Lombardi, What the Hell is going on out there?!

In a word: effort. Despite a cold-shooting first quarter, the Magic have stuck with the Pistons and forced them to miss some tough shots. On the offensive end, the Magic are getting the looks they want (for the most part) and converting. The Pistons' bench is one of the best in the league (at least in terms of plus/minus, but tonight, they haven't done much, with a combbined 11 points on 4-of-10 shooting. Jason Maxiell continues to kill us, though. He has 6 boards in 6:33 of playing time, and we'll need to keep him off the glass if we hope to protect this lead. Detroit is bound to make a run in the second half, and we have to be ready.

I'm fairly pleased. Holding a 7-point halftime lead over the hottest team in the league, in its own building, is impressive. Even better is the fact that we've built this lead with Dwight Howard and Hedo Turkoglu shooting poorly; each is 2-of-7 from the field and each has had two of his shots blocked.

Odd note from the first half: Keyon Dooling was called for a blocking foul as Tayshaun Prince barreled into him in transition, but the call was reversed, resulting in a Magic possession. I've never seen a foul-call overruled like that before. Nice that we were the beneficiary of that whistle. Too bad it resulted in a turnover.

	vs.
39-13		33-21
The Palace of Auburn Hills
7:30 PM
Sun Sports HD
Probable starters:
Chauncey Billups	PG	Jameer Nelson
Richard Hamilton	SG	Maurice Evans
Tayshaun Prince	SF	Hedo Turkoglu
Antonio McDyess	PF	Rashard Lewis
Rasheed Wallace	C	Dwight Howard

The Pistons enter tonight's matchup with the Magic having won 10 straight games, yet nobody seems to want to talk about them. That's fine with Chauncey Billups. From the Denver Post:

"Nobody knows we're winning," Pistons guard Chauncey Billups said. "All people know is that Pau Gasol went to Los Angeles, Shaq (O'Neal) went to Phoenix and Jason Kidd is supposed to be on his way to Dallas."

[....]

But Billups, a Denver native, said he likes being the "hunter." He doesn't mind being under the radar in February, as long as he's still lacing his sneakers in June.

"Guys are making big-name trades, but to win a championship, you've got to be a cohesive unit," he said. "You can't have all all-stars. Some guys have to sacrifice some things and you have to be a little lucky, as well. Teams are making some great moves, but you still need time."

(Hat-tip: Detroit Bad Boys)

The Magic always have trouble with the Pistons, largely due to Billups' dominance over our point guards. Billups isn't big by NBA standards, but he's large enough (6'3", 201 pounds) to give Jameer Nelson (5'10", 180 pounds) fits, as Need4Sheed illustrated in this post. But he's not the only Piston who poses matchup problems for us. In the Magic's last visit to the Palace of Auburn Hills, a 101-93 defeat, Hedo Turkoglu let Rasheed Wallace abuse him for 13 points in the first quarter alone. The Pistons lead by 21 points at the end of that period and playing the remaining 36 minutes was a formality. Stan Van Gundy is going to have to adjust his defense before tonight's game if he hopes to leave the Palace a happy man.

For some good mojo, here's video of Rashard Lewis' game-winner against the Pistons from earlier this year:

Tipoff's at 7:30 PM on Sun Sports HD. Tonight is the first part of a road back-to-back against the Pistons and the Raptors, teams we went a combined 0-12 against last season. Let's see if we can't get the stretch run off to a good start against the most formidable team in the Eastern Conference, the one I most fear heading into the playoffs.

Go Magic!

UPDATE: Pistons Nation has its preview up, featuring a pretty cool photo manipulation of Dwight Howard's greatest enemy: Sheedonite! PN thinks the Pistons should be concerned with Hedo Turkoglu, especially on the pick-and-roll in the fourth quarter. Considering the damage Turk's done in the fourth quarters of games this year, I'd say PN is pretty spot-on.