vs.
11-52		42-24
AmericanAirlines Arena
7:30 PM
FSN Florida
Probable starters:
Jason Williams	PG	Jameer Nelson
Daequan Cook	SG	Maurice Evans
Ricky Davis	SF	Hedo Turkoglu
Shawn Marion	PF	Rashard Lewis
Mark Blount	C	Dwight Howard
Season series:
24 Nov 2007: Magic 120, Heat 99
28 Dec 2007: Magic 121, Heat 114
30 Jan 2008: Magic 107, Heat 91

The Magic take to the road for the first time in over a week to take on their rivals to the south, the Miami Heat. They'll return to Orlando to play the Indiana Pacers on the second night of a back-to-back, and won't have to play another road game for a week. I'm really digging this late-season schedule, and I'm sure the players are too.

The Heat are miserably bad. As Basketbawful noted yesterday, in Miami's loss to the New York Knicks on Wednesday night, Ricky Davis and Mark Blount took a combine 35 shots. Yeah, it's gotten real bad in South Beach. So bad, in fact, that coach Pat Riley has left the team to scout some college players. Not that Riley is any stranger to quitting taking time off or anything.

Oh, by the way: the Heat have lost Alonzo Mourning (knee), Shaquille O'Neal (trade), and Dwyane Wade (knee) for the season. Udonis Haslem, their glue-guy, has also missed some games with a bum ankle. At least they managed to snag Shawn Marion in the O'Neal trade.

Tipoff's at 7:30 because the Heat are about five years behind us in terms of scheduling. The game's on FSN, so most of us won't be able to see it, but that may be a good thing. Do we really want to subject ourselves to the Mark Blount? What about Heat's insufferable P.A. announcer? Seth from Posting and Toasting, SB Nation's Knicks blog, explains:

• Someone needs to make a video of every time Mark Blount touched the ball in the second half. It was surreal. I'd guess he had 15 touches in the final 24 minutes, and that he hastily bricked an off-balance jump shot on about 10 of those touches. It was so egregious that Mike Breen's call at one point was "Mark Blount with...a pass!". My fantasy team thanks you, asshole.
• As Barnesgasm pointed out, the Miami PA announcer must have accidentally ingested some speed in his pre-game snack. The guy was practically screaming such unimpressive names as "DAEQUAN COOOOOOK!!!" and "CHRIS QUIIIIINN!!1", which was made even more depressing by the noticeable echo in the completely empty arena.

So, yeah, enjoy. Go Magic.

The 2008 NBA trading deadline is Thursday, February 21st, at 3 PM EST. 3QC is keeping tabs on the Magic's involvement.

• Gary Washburn of the Seattle Post-Intelligencer joined the Magic/SuperSonics trade rumor discussion extravaganza by writing this piece, entitled "Thomas' Future Uncertain Now," in which he writes, "And at All-Star Weekend in New Orleans, there appeared to be interest in [Kurt] Thomas by a few teams, including the Orlando Magic, which is in need of a power forward."

  Washburn mentions Carlos Arroyo, Keyon Dooling, and Pat Garrity, saying a combination of two of those three players could be used to pry Thomas from Seattle. (Hat-tip: poster TheFalcon at MagicMadness)

  My original Magic/SuperSonics proposal involved Arroyo, James Augustine, Keith Bogans, and J.J. Redick for Thomas and Delonte West. I'd like to revise that trade: Arroyo, Augustine, and Bogans for Thomas. It doesn't appear as though Smith wants to trade Redick, and there's no real reason for us to want West when we already have one undersized combo-guard, Keyon Dooling.

• Meanwhile, Will Brinson at FanHouse discusses a Thomas-to-the-Magic swap as part of FanHouse's Trade Machinations series. He concludes:

  Will it happen? Yes. Yes it will. The only hold up here -- I would imagine -- is whether the Sonics and Magic want to consider anything that might involve either J.J. Redick or Chris Wilcox. Well, that and the full compensation for the swap: draft picks, etc.

• Brian Schmitz cautions the Magic not to include Dooling in any trade before the deadline... unless it yields Udonis Haslem. I agree with Schmitz for the most part. Keyon has indeed been our best, most consistent bench scorer. We need him more than we need Arroyo, who is actually fairly similar to Jameer Nelson. If we can only re-sign one guard with an expiring contract this summer -- Arroyo, Keith Bogans (if he opts-out), Dooling, and Maurice Evans are the players whose contracts will be up for renewal -- Dooling has to be the pick. He may not run the offense well, but he gets to the basket and converts. I'd hate to see him go, even in a deal for Haslem.
  • For what it's worth, Heat scribe Ira Winderman thinks Haslem would be a great fit in Orlando, "a utilitarian power forward to handle the dirty work." He doesn't suggest any potential deals, however.
• Interesting discussion thread over at John Denton's forum, in which readers debate the merits of rooting against the Magic tonight and tomorrow night in hopes that successive losses to Detroit and Toronto would force Otis Smith to make a trade. I'm opposed to rooting for my team to fail for any reason, but especially when there's no guarantee of a reward. For instance, when a cellar-dwelling team tanks its season, there's a tangible increase in the odds of it winning the draft lottery, and thus improving its fortunes. In this situation, it's not a given that back-to-back losses before the trading deadline will make Otis get on the phone and make a deal.
• UPDATE: From this diary entry I posted at Sactown Royalty:

  Poster "BriceC0815" at John Denton's Magic board posted a link to this page at another board (PG-13 for language), which details some Magic/Kings trade rumors.

  • Brad Miller and Francisco Garcia for Carlos Arroyo, Keith Bogans, and Pat Garrity. (Trade Machine)
  • Kenny Thomas and Garcia for Arroyo, Bogans, and Garrity. (Trade Machine)

  Very interesting, but I don't see why Sacramento would make the Miller deal. Sure, it'd free-up some salary, but I doubt [Kings GM] Geoff Petrie would make any trade in which he gives up the two best players in it. The Thomas deal makes more sense for Sacramento, but even Otis Smith has to realize that Kenny Thomas is no-good...

  ...right?

  [....]

  • UPDATED AGAIN: John Denton, as usual, is on the case. He checked with Otis on the validity of the rumor, and Otis told him there was no chance the Magic would take on Miller and his large salary. Denton added that his sources within the Magic organization indicated Orlando will not make a trade with Miami anytime soon.

Speaking of trades: the Jason Kidd-to-the-Mavericks deal is done, and Mavs Moneyball has this indispensable timeline of events leading up to its completion. Kudos to Wes for keeping tabs on the situation.

This following statement from Magic coach Stan Van Gundy about his team's point guards, cited by Tim Povtak in a brief piece in yesterday's Orlando Sentinel, is about as clear-cut as it gets. To use Bill Parcells' cooking analogy, Magic General Manager Otis Smith bought the groceries, but Stan doesn't like the dish they've yielded:

"I can't play all three of them. That doesn't work," Van Gundy said. "We just don't have any of those [point guards] who create a lot for other people. That's [Hedo Turkoglu's] job. We've changed our lineup looking for guys who can get us off to a good start. Maybe we need to look at that again¹."

To recap: the Magic have three point guards whom their coach can't play and who don't get the ball to the people who need it. Although Hedo has indeed done a great job facilitating the offense, the responsibility shouldn't rest on his shoulders alone. It appears as though Van Gundy has seen enough of each of the Magic's point guards and doesn't have a preference over which one plays. Maybe I'm reading too far into Stan's comments, but it sure sounds like he's sending a message to Otis: This team needs a point guard.

The fact is, point guard isn't our biggest area of need. Most Magic fans agree that neither Jameer Nelson nor Carlos Arroyo can lead the Magic to a championship in the future, despite the team's 5-year, $35 million investment in Nelson; he is, in effect, the highest-paid backup point guard in the league. Although he hasn't improved much this season, he's still a serviceable starter. In other words, he's not a total waste. Neither is Arroyo. The Magic have gotten 10.6 points and 5.4 assists per game from their starting point guards this season, which is modest, but certainly not embarrassing.

Magic fans seem to want the team to upgrade at shooting guard via trade, with the Los Angeles Clippers' Corey Maggette and Memphis' Mike Miller as the two most popular targets; incidentally, both those players spent their rookie seasons in Orlando, and both of them wore no. 50. The Magic could depend on either of those players to score 15-to-17 points a night. Each player adds his own unique specialty: Maggette is exceptional at drawing fouls and converting at the free throw line (.820 career); and Miller could stretch the defense with his sweet three-point shooting stroke (.401 career).

However, Knickerblogger.net shows us the Magic rank second in the league in eFG%, trailing only high-powered Phoenix. Without putting too fine a point on it, two-guards in the NBA are primarily suppose to shoot, and to do so well. Thing is, the Magic shoot well enough as it is. This season, Magic two-guards have collectively shot a remarkable .552 eFG%. So as nice as it would be to have Maggette or Miller back in Orlando, they don't provide what we need, which is rebounding.

The Magic are exceptional on the defensive glass, ranking 6th in the league in defensive rebound percentage. But they're lackluster on the offensive glass, checking in at 27th in the league in offensive rebound percentage, a fact made all the worse when one considers they have two of the league's top individual offensive rebounders: Adonal Foyle and Dwight Howard.

Since Foyle and Howard play center, we need to look for a quality rebounder at the power forward position. Rashard Lewis, a natural small forward, starts at that position now, and he's not having much success on the boards: among the 55 qualified power forwards, Lewis is 52nd in offensive rebound rate (3.8) and 54th in overall rebound rate (7.6). This fact is especially damning because Lewis is an athletic, 6'10" man in his physical prime. For some perspective, Jameer Nelson has an identical overall rebound rate, despite the fact he stands a full foot shorter than Lewis and he plays further away from the basket.

Apart from shooting, rebounding is the second-most important aspect of basketball, as Dean Oliver wrote in his book, Basketball on Paper. If the Magic hope to contend for an NBA title, they'd do well to acquire a strong, rebound-centric power forward, even if only for the rest of this season. Four of the last five NBA Finals winners had at least three players (minimum: 15 minutes per game) with rebound rates above 15.0². The current Magic team has only one player who fits that description: Dwight Howard. As Brian Schmitz explained in this blog post (to which I linked yesterday), adding a power forward to flank Howard in the frontcourt will allow Lewis to play small forward and Turkoglu to play shooting guard. This move would give the Magic a bevy of size at the two-through-five positions and what should be a decisive advantage on the glass.

We've concluded that rebounding, particularly offensive rebounding, is the Magic's biggest weakness. Furthermore, we've explained why addressing the rebounding issue is of critical importance for a team with championship aspirations. In a later entry, we'll look at potential ways to acquire solid, rebounding power forwards via trade.

Footnotes:

¹: From an earlier entry: the Magic are 12 games over .500 despite losing a majority of their first quarters. Conclusion: It's not who starts, but who finishes.
²: All data from www.basketball-reference.com

• 2007 San Antonio Spurs: Tim Duncan (18.7 R Rate), Fabricio Oberto (16.3), Francisco Elson (15.2)
• 2006 Miami Heat: Shaquille O'Neal (17.6), Alonzo Mourning (16.2), Udonis Haslem (15.0)
• 2005 San Antonio Spurs: Nazr Mohammed (20.8), Tim Duncan (19.4), Rasho Nesterovic (15.0)
• 2004 Detroit Pistons: Ben Wallace (19.1), Mehmet Okur (15.4)
• 2003 San Antonio Spurs: Tim Duncan (19.0), David Robinson (17.5), Malik Rose (15.2)

As expected, the Orlando Magic beat the Wade-less, Shaq-less, Haslem-less Miami Heat. The final score was 107-91, but don't let that fool you. The Heat were within three points until the Magic reeled-off an 18-to-1 run to put the game on ice. Here's the boxscore, here's John Denton's recap, and here's Ira Winderman's blog entry from a Heat perspective. Winderman says Rashard Lewis is "grotesquely overpaid." Adverbs sure are terrific.

Hedo Turkoglu is making a strong case for team MVP. He had his most efficient scoring outing in a while, registering a game-high 27 points while taking just 13 shots. He also grabbed 12 rebounds. Hell, if it weren't for the 6 turnovers, he would have had an essentially flawless game. Damn.

The Magic won by 16, the outcome of the game wasn't in doubt for much of the fourth quarter, yet J.J. Redick still got a DNP-CD. That's gotta hurt, especially considering Ketih Bogans' ineffectiveness; J.J. could have done better than 7 points on 2-of-7 shooting if he played Bogans' 26 minutes. Just saying.

With any luck, I'll have more on this game tomorrow morning. There's real-life stuff for me to take care of now.

	vs.
28-18		9-33
Amway Arena
7:00 PM
Sun Sports HD
Probable starters:
Carlos Arroyo	PG	Jason Williams
Maurice Evans	SG	Ricky Davis
Hedo Turkoglu	SF	Dorell Wright
Rashard Lewis	PF	Mark Blount
Dwight Howard	C	Earl Barron

The Miami Heat are one of the league's worse teams, and were jubilant after ending a 15-game losing streak against the slump-busting Indiana Pacers. The happiness was short-lived, though, as they suffered a 117-87 defeat against the Boston Celtics last night. The margin of defeat is made even more disconcerting for the Heat considering the Celtics were without Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen. Worse still, the Heat lost starting power forward Udonis Haslem to a sprained ankle. Dwyane Wade scored just 7 points last night on 1-of-9 shooting, clearly bothered by the flu. He'll probably definitely sit out tonight. Clearly, Miami has no shot at the playoffs this season, even in the inferior Eastern Conference. Their probable starting lineup tonight -- no Shaq, no Wade, no Haslem -- resembles something they'd use in a preseason game. It's that bad.

The storyline for this game could have been Dwight Howard vs. Shaquille O'Neal, but Shaq is dealing with a sore hip and will be out for a few more games. He's vowed to keep playing until his contract expires in 2010, citing his upbringing as the son of an army drill sergeant as the reason. David Friedman thinks the more honorable thing for Shaq to do is retire to free up the $40 million of salary-cap space his contract will take up over the next two seasons. Thing is, Shaq isn't going to walk away from $40 million in guaranteed money, and Heat coach/GM Pat Riley isn't going to insult the future Hall-of-Famer by offering a buyout. So yeah, the Heat are a terrible team with no salary cap space. At least they have the lottery to look forward to.

The Magic will get a nice, long look at Heat point guard Jason Williams tonight. Williams has a contract that expires at season's end, and as Tim Povtak suggested yesterday, he could be a free-agent target for us. I'm not super anxious to use even part of the mid-level exception on a backup point guard, especially one who shoots miserably (.378) from the field. From a running-the-offense-capably standpoint, he's probably on-par with Carlos Arroyo. Unfortunately, Williams is 3-and-a-half years older and not as quick. In short: no thanks, Tim. I'll pass on Williams. For what it's worth, G.L. Rawx of the Howeva Files likes the idea of White Chocolate in a Magic uniform, mostly because he doesn't like Jameer "the Meerkat" Nelson.

And speaking of Nelson, he'll will be back in action tonight, albeit off the bench, says Brian Schmitz. Nelson practiced with the team yesterday and feels well enough to play.

Be sure to check out Ira Winderman's blog for more Heat coverage. Winderman has been the Sun-Sentinel's Heat reporter since the team's inception, and is one of the best reporters in the NBA at balancing his print work with his online pieces. He understands the difference between a news article and a blog entry, which is important.

The game is in HD tonight, so you'll be able to get a great sense of just how large Mark Blount's ears are. Go Magic.

	vs.
8-21		19-11
AmericanAirlines Arena
7:30 PM
FSN Florida
Probable starters:
Dwyane Wade	PG	Jameer Nelson
Ricky Davis	SG	Keith Bogans
Dorell Wright	SF	Hedo Turkoglu
Udonis Haslem	PF	Rashard Lewis
Earl Barron	C	Dwight Howard

The Heat are having a truly awful season. Just two years after winning the NBA title, the Heat are dead last in the Eastern Conference and will have to go 33-20 the rest of the way just to reach .500 at season's end, which might earn them a playoff berth. On top of that, they've lost backup center Alonzo Mourning to a career-ending knee injury and backup guard William "Smush" Parker to a career-ending case of mental flatulence. Shaq might take his annual injury vacation due to sore hips. Starting guard Jason Williams has a sore knee. Chris Quinn, Williams' backup, has a sprained left ankle and may not be available tonight. Yes, the Heat indeed may be without a true point guard tonight. But look on the bright side, Heat fans: as Ira Winderman notes (thirteenth bullet), your team has five centers under contract this season. Hooray!

The Magic should indeed be heavily favored in this game, but they can't afford to overlook any opponent, especially one that fields a starting five which includes Dwyane Wade and Shaquille O'Neal. And as boneheaded as Ricky Davis is, he's also a threat to pop off for 40 points at least once a season. Yahoo!'s Kelly Dwyer looks at the Heat's most recent loss, a 96-85 setback in Philadelphia, and concludes that Pat Riley the coach deserves just as much of the criticism as Pat Riley the GM. Basically, they're better than their record lets on, and perhaps they'd be more successful with a different coach. It should be noted that the Heat are 4-6 in their last 10 games. Is that impressive? Lord, no, but it's also one game better than our 3-7 mark in that same span.

We handled the Heat fairly well the last time we matched up with them; in fact, it might have been our best game of the season. Basically, the Heat don't have anyone who can shut down both Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis. Also, Shaq is too slow and too old to hang with Dwight Howard defensively, although he played well on the offensive end (20 points, 8-15 FG) against Dwight in November.

The game is on FSN Florida, which means most of us won't get to see it. Thank you, NBA Audio League Pass.

UPDATE: Shaquille O'Neal is active for tonight's game, but will not start, reports ESPN.com.

	vs.
3-9		11-3
Amway Arena
7:00 PM
FSN Florida
Probable starters:
Jason Williams	PG	Jameer Nelson
Dwyane Wade	SG	Keith Bogans
Ricky Davis	SF	Hedo Turkoglu
Udonis Haslem	PF	Rashard Lewis
Shaquille O'Neal	C	Dwight Howard

25 words or fewer: Surging Orlando faces off against division rival Miami in an early-season matchup with plenty of subplots.

Know your enemy: The Heat beat the Rockets last night. Shaquille O'Neal reverted back to championship form in scoring 26 points and grabbing 14 rebounds while simultaneously holding Yao Ming to 20 points and 7 rebounds.

Useless information: The Heat went with an eight-man rotation last night. Fatigue may be a factor, especially for their backcourt; both Wade and Williams played 40-plus minutes.

I'll be at the game tonight. Let's see if the Magic can add another win to their total before embarking on a long West-Coast swing.

UPDATE: Added a poll. Will you be cheering or booing Miami's former Magic players in their return to Orlando this evening?

Damn, Stan sure knows how to dress coach, doesn't he?
Photo by Steven M. Dowell, the Orlando Sentinel.

The Magic cruised to a big victory over the Heat in a game in which they never trailed. All five starters for the Magic -- Carlos Arroyo, Keith Bogans, Hedo Turkoglu, Pat Garrity (!), and Dwight Howard -- scored in double-figures. J.J. Redick lead all scorers with 19 points off Orlando's bench.

I'm pleased with the victory, but I still can't get too worked up over whooping up on a team playing without four of its five starters. Losing to what amounted to Udonis Haslem and some D-League hopefuls would have been a colossal embarrassment. However, we should be pleased with our hot shooting, especially from three-point range. As Brian Schmitz mentioned in this morning's Sentinel recap, the Magic are shooting 43.9% from that distance so far this preseason. Hopefully that momentum will carry over into the regular season, as the Magic will want to spread the floor to give Dwight Howard more room to operate in the low post.

Equally important to the Magic's success has been their point guard play. Jameer Nelson and Carlos Arroyo have combined to tally 31 assists to just 11 turnovers. Additionally, they've shot 20-of-45 from the field, or 44.4%. In short, they're distributing the ball, not turning it over too much, and shooting well when they do indeed choose to shoot. If they can maintain that level of discipline throughout the season... wow.

It's only the preseason. It's only the preseason. It's only the preseason. It's only the preseason...

Quick box score notes: Dwight Howard was two blocks away from a triple-double; Pat Garrity lead the Magic in field goal attempts; J.J. Redick needed just 6 shots to score 19 points; The two teams combined for 44 turnovers, with Miami's Brian Chase and Devin Green and Orlando's Howard each having 4.

	vs.
0-2		1-1
Amway Arena
7:00 PM
Probable starters:
Jason Williams	PG	Jameer Nelson
Dorell Wright	SG	Keith Bogans
Jeremy Richardson	SF	Hedo Turkoglu
Udonis Haslem	PF	Dwight Howard
Shaquille O'Neal	C	Adonal Foyle

25 words or fewer: The Magic will try to keep the Heat winless in preseason play in a matchup of in-state rivals.

Know your enemy: The Heat, just two years removed from winning an NBA title, are coming off a game against Atlanta in which they were held scoreless in overtime en route to a 106-100 loss.

Useless information: Heat power forward Udonis Haslem scored 22 points on Wednesday night, which is the most points he's scored in a single game since last November, when he torched New Jersey for 28 points on 10-of-14 shooting.

Bullet points:

• You can listen to tonight's game for free by following this link to NBA.com Audio League Pass.
• The Magic will be without the services of forward Rashard Lewis, who left Wednesday's game against Charlotte after spraining his right ankle.
• Heat forward Antoine Walker is so out-of-shape that coach Pat Riley fears he won't be in playing condition until January. Riley is cutting Walker some slack, though. After all, Walker was the victim of a home-invasion robbery this past offseason.
• This game will be the last one the Magic play stateside until October 25th; next week, they venture to China to play the Cleveland Cavaliers twice and Team China once.
• I really want to see more of Marcin Gortat, who has played just 11 minutes in the Magic's two preseason games. He scored 7 points in 7 minutes against Charlotte and first-hand accounts tell us he's good at running the floor. He'll be important to our season, as he will likely back up Adonal Foyle at center.
• Former Magic guard Penny Hardaway has a non-guaranteed contract with the Heat and is trying to make an NBA comeback. However, he hasn't played yet this preseason owing to a quadriceps strain and his status for tonight is unknown. Thus, Magic fans will likely have to wait until the team's November 24th matchup with Miami to see the former face of their franchise return to action... for the enemy.