Not to pile on Otis Smith, but the Magic are the only Eastern Conference team currently over .500 not to make at least one roster move to improve itself in the past month. To recap:

1. Boston Celtics (44-12)
   • Sign forward P.J. Brown out of retirement
   • Sign free-agent guard Sam Cassell (bought-out by the Los Angeles Clippers, a decision with which ClipperSteve does not agree)
2. Detroit Pistons (42-16)
   • Acquire guard Juan Dixon from the Toronto Raptors for center Primoz Brezec
   • Sign free-agent center Theo Ratliff (bought-out by the Minnesota Timberwolves)
3. Orlando Magic (37-23)
4. Toronto Raptors (32-24)
   • Acquire center Primoz Brezec from the Detroit Pistons for guard Juan Dixon
5. Cleveland Cavaliers (32-26)
   • Acquire forwards Joe Smith and Ben Wallace from the Chicago Bulls for foward Drew Gooden and guard Larry Hughes
   • Acquire forward Wally Szczerbiak and guard Delonte West from the Seattle SuperSonics for forwards Donyell Marshall and Ira Newble

Okay, maybe the Raptors getting Brezec from the Pistons doesn't count, but the fact remains: the teams around us are at least trying to improve, and we aren't. The Magic, as constituted the day of the trade deadline, were certainly not talented enough to defeat Boston, Detroit, or Toronto in a seven-game series. Now? They're arguably not talented enough to take down Cleveland, either. Even more troublesome is the fact that Toronto and Cleveland are potential first-round playoff opponents for us, which makes the possibility of an early vacation for us much more immediate.

As MME wrote at Bold 'n' Blue, the Magic are the only team in the NBA this season to beat Boston and Detroit twice each. However, one win against each of those teams came on a game-winning shot, and another came down to a missed last-second shot by the opponent. Only one, the most recent victory over the Pistons, was decisive by any stretch of the imagination.

On the day of the trade deadline, I considered Detroit the most formidable of any of these plus-.500 teams. Now that Boston has added two talented, savvy, playoff-proven veterans, I'm even more frightened of them. In last season's playoffs, Detroit's Chris Webber and Dale Davis (who no longer play for the Pistons) hacked Dwight Howard into a funk he could not shake. They intimidated him. The Celtics now have P.J. Brown, who can similarly pester Dwight. Celtics coach Doc Rivers can also dust-off Scot Pollard, who is good for six fouls a game. Meanwhile, Sam Cassell has 115 games of playoff experience, and still has the skills to pick-apart younger point guards; see this season's 35-point undressing of the Pacers' Jamaal Tinsley for proof.

Theo Ratliff is finally healthy, and he gives the Pistons the same toughness that Davis and Webber provided them last year. He's still a good shot-blocker, and can be trusted in late-game situations; in the fourth quarter of Game 7 in a playoff series, with Rasheed Wallace fouled out, Pistons coach Flip Saunders will go with Ratliff over emerging youngster Amir Johnson 11 times out of 10.

Cleveland is similarly tougher with Ben Wallace and Joe Smith. Even with Wallace's declining skills, he's still more of a banger than Drew Gooden ever was or ever will be. Adding those two guys to a frontcourt that already boasted Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Anderson Varejao makes the Cavaliers a team built for hard-nosed playoff basketball. Also, they have LeBron James.

As for Toronto, they're already a better team. As ESPN.com's John Hollinger mentioned yesterday (Insider, although it's free for right now), Toronto has a better point differential than we do, and point differential is a better indicator of a team's ability that won-loss record is:

Let's put it more simply: The Raps aren't beating people, they're killing them. Toronto topped Milwaukee by 31, Washington by 39, Miami by 32, Minnesota by 23 and 22, New Jersey by 18, Orlando by 17, and New York by 23. In a 16-game stretch, half their games were blowout wins.

Sum it up and you'll see in that modest-looking 16-game stretch [during which Toronto is 10-6] the Raptors are outscoring opponents by an impressive 10 points per game.

Chris Bosh and Dwight Howard play well against each other, so the real difference-making factor for the Raptors in a series against us is the point guard tandem of Jose Calderon and T.J. Ford. There's no way that either Jameer Nelson or Keyon Dooling can shut both of those guys down; they get into the lane at will and have the three-point shooters to make defenses pay for collapsing on them. The Raptors, as a team, shoot 40% from beyond the arc, is tops in the NBA.

So should we just give up and concede the conference to these teams? No, of course not. We can beat any of these teams in a playoff series, but the odds are decidedly not in our favor. After reading this post by Matt at Hardwood Paroxysm, I decided to contact him to chat about D-League players who could help Orlando. Click "Permalink" below to read what he had to say.

Continue reading this post »

	vs.
10-21		22-14
Staples Center
10:30 PM
FSN Florida
Probable starters:
Sam Cassell	PG	Carlos Arroyo
Quinton Ross	SG	J.J. Redick1
Corey Maggette	SF	Hedo Turkoglu
Al Thornton	PF	Rashard Lewis
Chris Kaman	C	Dwight Howard

I stayed up late last night to listen to the Kings game, although I did tune-out early. Here's the recap, which just hit the front page moments ago. Either way, this preview is pretty abbreviated.

• Chris Kaman used to look like a caveman
• Clips Nation homepage
  • See below for a link to Clips Nation's preview.
• ClipperBlog homepage
• Is Chris Kaman an All-Star?

The Clippers have been absolutely decimated by injuries, and it might be time for them to make some trades to make sure they get something in return for free-agents-to-be Corey Maggette and Sam Cassell. ClipperSteve thinks Orlando would be an ideal destination for Maggette, who started his career with the Magic:

But wouldn't Corey be a nice fit in Orlando?  Keith Bogans is their starting shooting guard, and Mo Evans is their first forward off the bench.  Maggette would be a major upgrade in both cases.

I'd love to see Corey in Magic-blue again, but I still think our biggest concern is at power forward, not at shooting guard.

The game starts at 10:30. Maybe we'll start then, too. Another 18-point first quarter in a losing effort and I'll be royally pissed-off at first, then move into a fairly dark stage of depression as I prepare myself for another mediocre season. Maybe I can buy this Reece Gaines replica jersey -- yes, you read that right -- and cry into it when it arrives.

UPDATE: ClipperSteve has his preview up at Clips Nation, and makes this sobering statement:

[O]ther than Hedo Turkoglu, no one else on the Magic is having a particularly good season.  Hence 10 losses in the last 16 games (I can't really explain the 16-4 start).  In fact, in their last 9 games they are 4 and 5, but the four wins came against New York, Miami, Charlotte and Chicago - literally the 4 worst teams in the Eastern conference.  They have one win against a team with a winning record in their last 16 games - which is one more than the Clippers have, but still.

...wow. It's actually even worse than that; the total is 0 wins over teams with plus-.500 records in that stretch, which starts with that awful home loss to Indiana. I knew we were playing poorly, but that poorly?! Sweet merciful Seikaly.

¹ No, I don't think J.J. will start in this game at all, but he probably should. Bogans and Keyon Dooling have been awful lately, and Stan really has nothing to lose by starting the youngster, especially after his strong, 10-point showing last night. Free J.J.!

Going with wordmarks instead of logos in the chart today. Let's see if that can change our luck a little bit...

	vs.
21-3		18-10
TD Banknorth Garden
6:00 PM
Sun Sports
Probable starters:
Rajon Rondo	PG	Jameer Nelson
Ray Allen	SG	Keith Bogans
Paul Pierce	SF	Hedo Turkoglu
Kevin Garnett	PF	Rashard Lewis
Kendrick Perkins	C	Dwight Howard

Just like the last time these two teams met, Jim of Green Bandwagon and I have exchanged questions for one another to answer. You can read my answers to his questions here. Here are my questions, in bold, followed by his responses:

1. Recently, former NBA guards Gary Payton and Travis Best have expressed an interest in joining the Celtics. Are you flattered or infuriated by their statements? And would you rather have Payton, Best, or another free-agent point guard on your roster come playoff time?
Their statements are not infuriating. In fact it is encouraging to see guys want to play in Boston. Call it the KG effect. Shortly after he came to town Eddie House, Scot Pollard (for better or worse) and James Posey signed on board. Even Reggie Miller considered it. Best and Payton are just the two latest veterans to show interest. Also it is clear that House is better at catching and shooting than playing the back up point, particularly against good teams. Furthermore, the Celtics have two open roster spots. Finally, deep down Celtics fans want Sam Cassell to get bought out and join the Celtics (Bill Simmons' idea originally I think). Yes he has the potential to disrupt chemistry. But so does Payton and Cassell still has something left in the tank. I just don't want to see Rajon Rondo get lost in the process. It turns out it is much easier to play arm chair general manager and demand the Celtics get a back up point guard than it is to actually name who it should be.

2. The Celtics have lost three times this year: a close one against the Magic, who were playing well at the time; an overtime game against LeBron and his Cavaliers; and a close one against the Pistons. Which loss was most infuriating? And does the possibility of facing any of those teams in a seven-game playoff series scare you?
I was at the Pistons game and was mildly annoyed to see Pierce take the possible game winner, because he did not have the hot hand and he left time on the clock. Meanwhile, the Cavs loss was frustrating because Ray Allen missed a couple of free throws towards the end of regulation and the C's offense imploded in overtime. But to be honest none of the losses are that big a deal to me, particularly the Magic one because it was on the road with Orlando playing very well. It's too long a regular season to get worked up about these things. That said, in a 7 game series I'd be terrified of the Celtics getting LeBroned (see Pistons last year) or getting picked apart by a veteran Detroit squad. I have a healthy respect for Dwight Howard and could see him ripping off a streak of 30-20s, but think the Magic are a year or two away.

3. Brendan of Believing in Magic started a bit of a flame-war when he called all the Celtics "punks" because of their constant hammering of Dwight Howard in the teams' first meeting this season. Is there bad-blood between Celtics fans and Magic fans? Or do you think that's all water under the bridge by now?
The whole concept of a flame-war is a bit beyond me and strikes me as something that gives blogging a bad name. I've had a few attacks on my work. In each case I either accepted the comments as warranted or been so thoroughly confused that it simply went away. I would be more likely to participate in a heated exchange with someone I knew well and thus it would not be a flame war. Bottom line some people really seem to enjoy that stuff. So I would not be shocked to see it again. Although it makes more sense for Celtics fans to get into with Knicks, Pistons, Lakers and – for myself only and for reasons I can't explain – Bucks fans.

4. I'm sure you've seen John Hollinger's Playoff Odds doohickey at ESPN. The simulator gives the Celtics a 10% chance of posting a record of 72-10 or better and a 61% chance of winning the NBA title. How much stock do you put into that?
I can't think of any situation in which the Celtics win 72 games. And I put absolutely no stock in the "61% chance of winning a title" talk. Two years ago the Pistons won 64 regular season games. Last season the Mavericks won 67. Look where it got them. Also I'd like to see the Celtics go on some real road trips and play a few elite Western Conference teams¹ before I get too carried away.

¹ - (Editor's note: the Celtics are 4-0 against the West, having defeated Denver, Golden State, the L.A. Lakers, and Sacramento. They have yet to play a Western team on the road, although they are about to embark on a four-game Western swing through Sacramento, Seattle, Utah, and Los Angeles.)