You may remember this post from May, in which I tried to navigate the NBA's salary cap to see what the Magic could do this summer in free agency. Now that we're closer to the beginning of the free-agent signing period (Wednesday, July 9th), I thought I'd take another look at it. I've presented my findings in a Q-and-A format. For this post, I consulted Larry Coon's NBA Salary Cap F.A.Q., Storyteller's Contracts, ESPN's 2008 NBA Free Agent list, and the Orlando Magic's official roster page. We hope you find this guide helpful.

Question: How many players do the Magic have under contract next season, and what are they owed?

Answer: Currently, the Magic have 11 players under contract, owed a total of $60,553,339 next season. While the league has yet to release its official salary-cap data, we can say with absolute certainty that the Magic are over the salary cap. Here's how everything breaks down by player...

Note: for this table, "Age" refers to a player's age as of October 31st, 2008, when we expect the NBA season to begin.

... and by position...

Make the jump to read the rest of the Q-and-A.

Continue reading this post »

Throwing a wrench in the Orlando Magic's free-agent plans, Chris Duhon has agreed to a two-year deal with the New York Knicks, reports Sean Deveney of Sports Illustrated. Deveney's source reports that the deal is worth the full mid-level exception, which is considerably more than the Magic were willing to offer.

Orlando will now likely turn its attention to Keyon Dooling, who has come off the bench to play both backcourt positions for the Magic in the last three seasons. A New York Post report earlier today, before Duhon's signing was announced, said Dooling was indeed the Magic's "fallback plan" in the event Duhon signed with New York.

I was never thrilled with the idea of the Magic replacing Dooling with Duhon, so this news comes as a relief to me. But if the Magic are unable to retain Dooling -- at least six other teams have contacted him -- they will have no other choice but to target shaky veterans like Jason Williams or Anthony Carter to back-up incumbent point guard Jameer Nelson. More likely, they'll wait to see what swingman Corey Maggette, the biggest remaining prize in this year's free-agent market, does before making an offer to anyone else at any position.

UPDATE: John Denton's version of the story includes reaction from Keyon Dooling:

"No, (the Magic) haven't given me an offer yet, but it is what it is," Dooling said Friday. "I've gotten a lot of interest, but what's interest without an offer. It's like a Catch-22.

"I understand that it's still young in the free-agent process and some of the bigger names have to go before I do. But I do think Duhon going (to New York) clears up some things for me (with Orlando)."

Aside: Denton also notes that Jameer Nelson will get married tomorrow, and that Dooling will be part of the ceremony. Congratulations, Jameer.

Other teams interested in Dooling include Miami, which won't offer a contract longer than two years, and Golden State, which needs to replace Baron Davis. I suspect Denver is in the mix as well, although apparently it prefers to sign Carlos Arroyo.

UPDATE: One final, interesting detail, this one from Brian Schmitz:

Bradbury [Kevin Bradbury, Duhon's agent] said Duhon himself called Magic General Manager Otis Smith to tell him he signed with the Knicks.

Huh. Nice guy, that Chris Duhon.

I updated this post to reflect the fact that the Magic lost Grant Hill in free agency last summer, which I somehow overlooked earlier. Thanks to commenter OVERWADED for bringing that serious oversight to my attention. Additionally, I updated the list after the jump to reflect the Phoenix Suns' potential interest in one of Orlando's current free agents.

With all the draft nonsense last week, it was easy for us at 3QC to lose sight of the fact that the NBA's free-agency period starts Tuesday.

So I'd like to thank Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald (via Dee Gugel of the Orlando Sentinel) for shocking us out of our stupor with today's Florida Sports Buzz feature. Apparently, the Heat have their eyes on some of our free agents (emphases Jackson's):

Riley said he still might trade for a point guard, with Memphis (Kyle Lowry, among others) considered in play. Otherwise, the Heat believes it can find a stopgap starter from a free agent group including Chris Duhon, Carlos Arroyo, Keyon Dooling, Anthony Johnson, Tyronn Lue, Jannero Pargo and Anthony Carter. And the Heat likes restricted free agent Sebastian Telfair, though Minnesota can match any offer.

[....]

[Heat GM Pat] Riley pointed to the potential to lure a player from ''teams that have three or four unrestricted free agents.'' Keep an eye on Orlando (Arroyo, Dooling, Maurice Evans) and Golden State [...]

Last year, the Magic only lost two three players to free agency: little-used point guard Travis Diener to Indiana; more notably, backup power forward Darko Milicic to Memphis; and swingman Grant Hill to Phoenix. Nobody expected Diener or Hill to come back, and although Milicic's departure surprised plenty of people, we should have expected the Magic to ignore him if it meant focusing on signing Rashard Lewis, which they did.

But the circumstances surrounding its summer -- limited cap space, high expectations entering next season, the higher quality of its own free agents -- will magnify the impact of any Orlando's free-agent losses, especially if they eventually sign with archrival Miami.

What follows after the jump is a list of Orlando's free agents, what they can provide, and which teams might be interested in them.

Continue reading this post »

This summer, 3QC will take a look back on each Magic player's 2007-2008 season. The first nine posts will evaluate, on an individual basis and in alphabetical order, the players who played in at least 20% of the team's total minutes; the final post will briefly evaluate the five players who appeared in less than 20% of the team's minutes.

Today, our focus is Jameer Nelson.

Unfortunately for him, most NBA observers will remember Jameer Nelson's 2007/2008 season as the one in which he guaranteed the Magic would win the fourth game against the Detroit Pistons in the second round of the playoffs. As we saw, both Nelson and his team failed to back up that tough talk, and the Pistons ended the Magic's season a few days later in Detroit. It's a darn shame, too. For all the undeserved flak he took for his guarantee -- my friend Matt Moore from Hardwood Paroxysm, usually even-tempered, wrote, "Jameer Nelson, I hate you," after the fact -- Jameer still had a pretty good season and proved (to me, anyway) he has what it takes to start for a championship-caliber team.

Obviously, that's not to say he was perfect. He turned the ball over on 17.4% of his possessions, the worst mark of any Magic player this season )and the worst of his career). Nelson, the fourth option on offense, seemed almost overeager to defer to his more scoring-inclined teammates, throwing passes into heavy traffic. He's at his best when he probes the lane a la Steve Nash, lulling defenders to sleep before lobbing the ball to Dwight Howard for a dunk; he's at his worst when he dribbles around the perimeter looking to make a play when he should instead get the ball to Hedo Turkoglu.

But if there's one thing that makes Nelson the ideal point guard for this team, it's his three-point shooting. Jameer drilled 52% of his treys after the All-Star break, most of them wide-open as a result of Turkoglu's penetration. If the Magic try to capitalize on Turkoglu's trade value this summer, Nelson may be the beneficiary of higher assist totals since Stan Van Gundy will want the ball in his hands more often; unfortunately, he'll also lose the open three-point looks that make this offense go. It's a wash.

Defensively, Nelson is a virtual zero. It's not that he lacks effort -- you can accuse Nelson of many things, but laziness isn't one of them -- but rather athleticism and height. What I'm about to say may sound harsh, but it's true: he's not cut-out to defend NBA-quality point guards. He's usually able to keep his man in front of him, but it just doesn't matter. Even if opponents can't get around Nelson, they can still shoot over his 5'11" frame (6'00" with shoes). The unofficial list of players who scored season-highs against the Magic in 2007/2008 is filled with point guards whom most average defenders could contain (Rajon Rondo, Darrell Armstrong, Anthony Carter, and Jason Williams immediately spring to mind).

So why do I like Jameer? Because he makes plays; because he's a leader; because, at 26, he hasn't yet entered his prime; and because he's reasonably priced at a little over $7 million a year. Nelson isn't going to make any All-Star teams, but he will provide value at the point guard spot for the Howard/Rashard Lewis Era.

For those readers who are curious: yes, I am cutting Nelson a bit of a break for his early- and mid-season struggles. His father, a welder at a shipyard, died unexpectedly last summer and Nelson needed some time to get his head straight, even spending one game against Charlotte on the Inactive List for a mental break. I have no doubt the rest he gets this summer, along with his natural development as a player, will help him perform at his best next season. He'll prove his doubters wrong.

	vs.
35-22		26-28
Amway Arena
6:00 PM
Sun Sports HD
Probable starters:
Jameer Nelson	PG	Beno Udrih
Maurice Evans	SG	Kevin Martin
Hedo Turkoglu	SF	Ron Artest
Rashard Lewis	PF	Mikki Moore
Dwight Howard	C	Brad Miller

The Kings may be talented enough to make the playoffs. That's what section214 concludes after this Sactown Royalty article about the players earning fewer than $2 million who give the most bang for their buck; Jameer Nelson makes an appearance. So why don't the Kings stand a chance? Because they have $21 million tied-up in unproductive power forwards. Sounds like a problem we could stand to have, no?

The last time these two teams played, the Kings totally embarrassed us on their home floor. As the GameFlow tells us, we never had a lead after the opening minutes of the game, and we were down by as many as 19 points in the fourth quarter; the respectable final margin, 104-100, was largely due to J.J. Redick scoring 10 points in the final 8 minutes.

Since then, the Kings have shaken up their roster. They traded Mike Bibby to Atlanta, a division rival of ours, for Shelden Williams and Cap Space. Bibby's replacement at point guard, Beno Udrih, produces almost the exact same level. Additionally, the Kings will have Ron Artest and Kevin Martin available this evening. Those two players sat out the first time we played the Kings.

For us to win, we're going to have to keep Kevin Martin off the foul line, which is much easier said than done. "Speed Racer" is capable of scoring 15 points without making more than five shots. Consider what Martin did to us the last time the Kings were here, a loss so infuriating it caused some deluded moron to start a website: in 30 minutes, he made only one-of-eight shots, yet still scored 20 points. The Kings managed to win despite shooting .338 from the field. That's got to be some sort of record.

Other Kings who could kill us: Brad Miller, whom Rashard Lewis had trouble guarding in these teams' first meeting this season; Francisco Garcia, who is en fuego this month, shooting .600 from three-point range(!); and Quincy Douby, a rambunctious combo-guard who can join Paul Millsap and Anthony Carter in the "Obscure Players Who Absolutely F---ing Destroyed Us" Club.

Be sure to mosey on over to Sactown Royalty for some brilliant Kings blogging. Tipoff tonight is at 6 PM instead of 7, and the first 5000 fans at the Amway Arena will receive a Jameer Nelson action figure. No word on if the concession stands are serving turnovers to commemorate the event.

Post your pre-, in-, and post-game comments in here. Go Magic.

	vs.
32-21		32-19
Amway Arena
7:00 PM
FSN Florida
Probable starters:
Jameer Nelson	PG	Anthony Carter
Maurice Evans	SG	Allen Iverson
Hedo Turkoglu	SF	Carmelo Anthony
Rashard Lewis	PF	Kenyon Martin
Dwight Howard	C	Marcus Camby

The Nuggets are coming off a 114-113 overtime victory over the Miami Heat last night. J.R. Smith lead Denver with 28 points... in 27 minutes... on 8-of-14 three-point shooting. He has no conscience. And the Magic damn well better close out on him if they hope to win.

And ohbytheway, the Nuggets also have the league's highest-scoring duo: Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson. The theme for the Magic tonight has to be DEFENSE.

Of course, the biggest story in this game is the (overblown) "feud" between Dwight Howard and Stan Van Gundy. How will Dwight respond in his first game since his coach called him out for not playing good defense? Brian Schmitz guarantees Howard will go for 20 points and 20 rebounds, even though he'll be matched-up with Marcus Camby, the league's leading rebounder and shot-blocker. However, a big night for Dwight isn't out of the question: Mark Blount (!) managed to post 18 points and 13 boards against Camby last night, and he's Mark Blount.

Anyway, look for the Nuggets to cream us. Sure, they're on the second night of a back-to-back, but that certainly didn't bother the Cavaliers on Monday. Unless the Nuggets flat-out miss their shots, they have this one in the bag. Accuscore disagrees, as the Magic won 62% of the game simulations it ran. Don't count on it. We are not a good team right now.

For some really super-cool Nuggets p.o.v., check out Pickaxe & Roll. Jeremy, who runs the site, does a great job analyzing Nuggets games with video. Check out this video breakdown of the Nuggets' first game against the Magic, which resulted in a Denver win thanks to Anthony Carter's 14th fourth-quarter points.

Tipoff's at 7. Go Magic.

Dwight Howard throws down a dunk in the Orlando Magic's 107-91 victory over the Miami Heat on Wednesday night.
Photo by Fernando Medina, NBAE/Getty Images

There were two big blowouts in the NBA last night: the 76ers crushed the Bucks by 43 points, and the Raptors downed the Wizards by 39. Considering the Magic are more talented than both the 76ers and the Raptors, and considering the Heat dressed only 10 players last night, the Magic should have won by more than 16 points. The game was an anomaly in that it was unsettlingly close before we put it away in the fourth quarter, as you can see in this GameFlow from PopcornMachine. Typically, we'll take a big lead, then give it all back late in the fourth, as we did versus New Jersey and at Charlotte. Oddly enough, those games also took place on Wednesdays. I write this on my brain.

This game illustrates two main points: Hedo Turkoglu is having an amazing season and our point guards are playing pretty terribly.

It's too bad the coaches already turned in their All-Star reserve votes, because Hedo Turkoglu played like an All-Star last night. However, I don't think he stands a chance at making the team. One of the reserve spots went to Joe Johnson (Atlanta Journal Constitution via FanHouse), who is completely undeserving. To be fair, I also left Turkoglu off my hypothetical ballot, but that's only because Josh Smith caught my eye with his incredible defense. He, not Johnson, is the reason Atlanta is in the playoff picture. If Johnson made the team at Turkoglu's expense, it will be a true injustice. Maybe I'm taking this All-Star thing too seriously, but pardon me for wanting players more deserving than Joe Johnson (Jose Calderon, Richard Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince, Turk, Gerald Wallace...) to get the recognition they deserve. I am, quite frankly, disgusted with the coaches' ignorance in this selection.

Something with which I am more disgusted is our point guard play. We're winning in spite of it, not because of it, as some Carlos Arroyo fans would like you to believe. Both he and Jameer Nelson have played terribly lately, which should concern Otis Smith. He says he doesn't want to make any moves before the trade deadline, but if a reasonable offer for a point guard comes along, he might have no choice but to pull the trigger. A title-contending team would probably be happy with either Arroyo or Nelson as its backup point guard, but not at its starter. Every title-contending team gets All-Star-level production from its point guard: Dallas has the one-two punch of Devin Harris and Jason Terry; Detroit has Chauncey Billups; New Orleans has Chris Paul; Phoenix has Steve Nash; Portland has Brandon Roy, who plays point forward; and San Antonio has the flop-happy Tony Parker. The only exception to the rule is Boston, which has three future Hall-of-Famers in its starting lineup. If we're going to contend, we need to upgrade that position. Period. Last night, Jason Williams -- Jason freaking Williams!!! -- had 11 points and 8 assists against us. Darrell Armstrong -- Darrell freaking Armstrong!!! -- came off the bench for the Nets four weeks ago and went absolutely bananas against us. Anthony Carter -- Anthony fre... you get the idea. Run-of-the-mill point guards routinely torch us, and we won't be facing too many of those in the playoffs.

Okay, we won the game. Lovely. But we should have won by a lot more, and there's no reason to think our season is going any better than it was. Yes, I am indeed complaining about playing .617 ball, which is about a 51-win pace. The fact is, we can do better. And I'm not going to be satisfied with anything less than the team's best effort. But hey, at least we've beaten the Heat eight straight times.  

If you've ever wanted an up-close view of Brian Cook's quads, you're in luck.

Really, guys? Anthony Carter? Ugh.

That basically sums up last night's game. On to tonight's:

	vs.
20-17		23-15
EnergySolutions Arena
9:00 PM
FSN Florida
Probable starters:
Deron Williams	PG	Jameer Nelson
Ronnie Brewer	SG	Maurice Evans
C.J. Miles	SF	Hedo Turkoglu
Carlos Boozer	PF	Rashard Lewis
Mehmet Okur	C	Dwight Howard

Utah's Andrei Kirilenko is a game-time decision due to back trouble. If he's able to go, and coach Jerry Sloan elects to start him, he'll take C.J. Miles' place as the starting small forward.

The Jazz embarrassed us on our home floor the last time we played them, so we'd like to return the favor. It won't be easy, though; the Jazz are 14-3 at home.

Short preview today because I went to see Juno last night. Do yourself a favor and go see it, just not at game-time tonight. This should be a good one because both teams are looking to legitimize themselves in their respective conferences. Are the Nuggets for real? What about the Magic? We'll get a pretty good idea after tonight.  

	vs.
21-13		23-14
Pepsi Center
9:00 PM
Sun Sports HD
Probable starters:
Anthony Carter	PG	Jameer Nelson
Allen Iverson	SG	Maurice Evans
Carmelo Anthony	SF	Hedo Turkoglu
Kenyon Martin	PF	Rashard Lewis
Marcus Camby	C	Dwight Howard

I've listed Nelson and Maurice "Mogans" Evans as the starting guards because they played well together Wednesday night in Los Angeles, but it's really anyone's guess as to who will start back there at this point. Mark Price and Brooks Thompson could suit-up for us and I wouldn't be surprised.

Be sure to check out Pickaxe And Roll, the newest member of the SB Nation team, for your Denver Nuggets news.