vs.
37-43		50-30
Philips Arena
7:00 PM
Sun Sports, NBA TV
Probable starters:
Mike Bibby	PG	Jameer Nelson
Joe Johnson	SG	Maurice Evans
Josh Smith	SF	Hedo Turkoglu
Marvin Williams	PF	Rashard Lewis
Al Horford	C	Dwight Howard
Season series:
10 Dec 2007: Hawks 98, Magic 87
10 Mar 2008: Magic 123, Hawks 112
22 Mar 2008: Hawks 98, Magic 90

The Magic get a chance to even the score against the Hawks tonight when they meet at the Philips Arena. Atlanta the only team in the East this season that has a winning record against the Magic; the thirteen other teams in the conference have either lost or tied the season-series. In light of that, I decided to take a look at the four factors to see why the Hawks seem to have our number.

Puzzling. Versus Atlanta, we shoot about the same and commit fewer turnovers, so what accounts for the huge drop in offensive efficiency as compared to our regular-season numbers? Poor free-throw shooting. We are an atrocious 46-of-76 from the stripe against the Hawks this year, or 60.5%. If we shot free throws at our regular-season clip, 72.2%, we would have scored 8 more points against the Hawks.

Through the three games in this series, the Hawks are +8. Ouch.

So yes indeed, our guys need to have their focus at the foul-line tonight if they hope to earn their 51st victory of the season. They'll also have to find some way to stop Joe Johnson, whose scoring output has increased (24, 27, 34) in each game against the Magic. Maurice Evans and Keith Bogans have their work cut out for them.

Speaking of defense, let's take a similar look at the Hawks' numbers to see on what else the Magic should focus on the other end of the floor...

There doesn't seem to be much wrong with our team defense against the Hawks this season. We've done a commendable job keeping Atlanta off the offensive glass and off the foul line. Our biggest problem has been defending the three-point line. Closing out the Hawks' shooters, especially Johnson and backcourt-mate Mike Bibby, should be another priority for us. Given our abysmal late-game defense against Minnesota on Friday night, I can't say I believe in our ability to do that.

Tipoff's at 7. Go Magic.

UPDATE: Brian Schmitz's preview at the Sentinel says that Stan Van Gundy will "slightly reduce" the minutes of Hedo Turkoglu, Rashard Lewis, and Dwight Howard tonight. Interesting. Free James Augustine!

	vs.
29-39		46-25
Philips Arena
7:00 PM
FSN Florida
Probable starters:
Mike Bibby	PG	Jameer Nelson
Joe Johnson	SG	Maurice Evans
Josh Smith	SF	Hedo Turkoglu
Marvin Williams	PF	Rashard Lewis
Al Horford	C	Dwight Howard

Too exhausted to do a full preview. Check out the coverage at Orlando Magic Blog and Bold 'n' Blue. Fear Josh Smith and his 5x5 potential.

Go Magic.

	vs.
41-24		21-41
Amway Arena
7:00 PM
Sun Sports HD
Probable starters:
Jameer Nelson	PG	Brevin Knight
Maurice Evans	SG	Quinton Ross
Hedo Turkoglu	SF	Corey Maggette
Rashard Lewis	PF	Al Thornton
Dwight Howard	C	Josh Powell
Season series:
9 Jan 2008: Magic 113, Clippers 106

Given the heaps of praise piled upon the Los Angeles Lakers, it's easy for some people to forget that they share a building with the Clippers. For more on this criminally underexposed team, I checked-in with Steve from Clips Nation.

------------------------------------------------------

3QC: The Clippers are in a bad way right now. Elton Brand and Shaun Livingston, two of their top-four players, have yet to play this season due to injury. Another top-four player, Corey Maggette, is worth more money than he's earning and may leave via free-agency this summer. If you could only bring one of those players back next season, which one would you choose? And why do you think that player is Clippers' key to building a winning franchise?

Steve: There's no question who everyone in ClipsNation would bring back - it's Elton Brand.  And it's not close.  I've wondered at times why other teams seemed to weather prolonged absences of superstar players a little better than the Generic Clippers (no Brand).  I've come to the conclusion that Elton Brand, as the best all around player on the Clippers - the best scorer, the best rebounder, the best post defender, the best locker room influence, the best leader - is just that much more important to the Clipers than, say, Gilbert Arenas is to the Wizards.  The Wizards replace Arenas with Antonio Daniels and there team defense gets better and their turnovers go down, while their offense definitely suffers.  The Clippers replace Brand with Tim Thomas and every damn thing gets worse.  EVERY DAMN THING.

In fact, I'd go so far as to say that if Brand isn't coming back, don't bother re-signing Maggette.  With both of them gone, they'd be far enough under the cap to actually sign somebody (not that there's anyone out there, but still).  If Brand isn't going to be here, get out the dynamite, blow it up.

Livingston is a bit of an exception - because of his uncertain status, he can probably be retained inexpensively.  I don't expect him to play anywhere else next season - he and the Clippers have been through too much together.  But he's a restricted free agent, and it remains to be seen how much he signs for and for how long.

The good news is that Brand is not going anywhere.  He's chomping at the bit to get back on the floor this season, and would be playing on this trip if Coach would let him.  And the reason he wants to play is to start getting the team ready for next season.  He's committed to staying with the Clippers, and has said as much.  It may only be for the final year of this contract (he has one more year, with an opt out this summer), but he'll be a Clipper next season, and so will Livingston.  Maggette is a tougher call.  I really have no idea what will happen with him.

3QC: The Magic and the Clippers have something in common in that they both have veteran players having career-years this season. We have Hedo Turkoglu; you have Chris Kaman. When completely healthy, how far can Kaman lead the Clippers? Is he All-Star material?

Steve: Is he All Star material?  Well, the short answer is yes.  He might well have been an All Star this season had he not been playing on a last place team.  But I think we're finding out that he's not really cut out to be the main man - as the double teams have become more aggressive, his offensive numbers have definitely suffered.  He has certainly shown that he will be a defensive and rebounding force in this league for years.  He's third in the league in both rebounding and blocked shots, and maintaining that position despite playing hurt for the last month.  He also is a surprisingly good on ball defender - he does ok on the pick and roll, he can cover more mobile centers - he's not just a Camby style free safety loading up on weak side blocked shots.  In the absence of Brand he's had to take the tough low post assignments all season long, and he's still managed to be third in the league in blocks.  (This is another reason Brand will be back - he definitely wants to play alongside this new version of Kaman.  Brand has been top 10 in rebounding and blocked shots for years.  If they can manage to be top 10 in those categories in the same front court it will be the first time since David Robinson and Tim Duncan - and those guys did alright together.)

This isn't actually a question; I just want to give you the opportunity to tell Magic fans, and other 3QC readers on the East Coast, how awesome Al Thornton is.

He's pretty awesome.  Since I see him every night, I forget what a secret he is around the league.  But never fear - everyone got to see Jeff Green in the Rookie game, so there's that.  The fact that Al Thornton wasn't selected for the rookie game; the fact that he lost out to Luis Scola for February Rookie of the Month (Scola averaged 11.7 points and 5.9 rebounds while Thornton went for 17.4 and 6.3); well, that's just life in ClipsNation.

While many rookies have been hitting the Wall, Thornton has been steadily improving.  He averaged 6 points in November, 8 in December, 13 in January and the aforementioned 17.6 in February, which he's pretty much maintained into March.  He's also shooting better and rebounding more.  In 21 games since January 30, he's been in double figures 18 times, gone for 20 or more 9 times, and had two games of 33.  He's a freak of an athlete, and can score in a variety of ways.  He's got a deadly first step and the ability to finish around the basket; he can create space for his jump shot; he has NBA three-point range (31 for 87 on the season); and he's got a motor that just doesn't stop.  The athleticism in particular is very welcome on the Clippers.  Brand is one of the less athletic superstars in the NBA.  Outside of Maggette, the Clippers don't have anyone that qualifies as a flyer, let alone a high flyer.  Thornton's myriad dunks this season, over Vince Carter, Chris Bosh, Josh Smith and Mikki Moore among others, are the only things getting the Clippers onto SportsCenter these days.

Perhaps most amazing for a rookie is that he's been the go to scorer in the fourth quarter of several wins.  Against New Jersey he out-dueled Carter in the fourth.  He scored 9 crucial fourth quarter points while being defended by Bosh in a close win on the road in Toronto.  And last week against the Kings he nailed a nasty step back 20 footer on the Clippers final possession to send the game into overtime.  He scored 22 points in the fourth period and overtimes combined in that game, which the Clippers eventually won.  How many rookies are getting the ball in key late game possessions this season?  I'll answer my own question - two.  Kevin Durant and Al Thornton.

The duel emergences of Thornton and Kaman are definitely the silver lining on this cumulonimbus of a season in ClipsNation.

3QC: I like to end these Q-and-A sessions positively, so I wanted to compliment your team on its wonderful uniforms. What are your thoughts on the Clippers' on-court attire? I think the blue alternate uniforms are among the best in the entire league.

Really, that's it?  That's the most positive you can be?  "Nice unis."

I'm no expert by any means, but this is probably an area where the Clippers non-innovative ways have benefited them.  While most of the NBA has been exploring the color pallet (teal?  really?), designing ever more detailed logos, and adding black to pretty much everything (it was cool when the Bulls did it - it's just lame for the T-Wolves), the Clippers have remained with the most primary of primary colors, and logos involving nothing more than letters and a basketball.  As the pendulum has swings back to old school unis, it turns out the Clippers have been there all along.  That blue road uniform is a case in point - pretty much a straightforward royal blue uni with the word Los Angeles on the front.  But name another team that uses that color at all?  Of course, I don't think they've won while wearing that uniform in like two seasons, so I'm beginning to hate it.  But it looks sharp.

------------------------------------------------------

Many thanks to ClipperSteve for those thorough responses. I meant no harm in commending the Clippers for their beautiful uniforms, but I do indeed see now how that could come across as a slight. Apologies to Steve and to Clippers fans for that.

Check out my answers to his questions -- including my take on the Magic's point guard situation -- at Clips Nation.

Assorted notes:

• Corey Maggette gets to the foul line at will -- he's taken 48 foul shots in his last 5 games! -- and converts at a high rate: .841 on the season and .823 for his career. Keith Bogans and Mo Evans are going to keep him away from the basket and force him to take contested jumpers. Maggette's hitting his outside shots at an effective field goal percentage of .418, which is well below average.
• Chris Kaman is day-to-day with a sore back and may not be available this evening. If that's the case, Dwight Howard will feast upon match-up against Josh Powell.
• Al Thornton should go for 20+ points tonight. I don't think Rashard Lewis can stop him.
• No word on if J.J. Redick, who left the team after Saturday's loss to Golden State to be with his brother, will be in-uniform tonight. David Redick underwent successful surgery to remove a tumor from his spine on Monday.
• If J.J. isn't available, and the game is a blowout, we could very well have another Marcin Gortat sighting. I do not object to this. Free Marcin.

Tip's at 7, as usual. I may be a bit late to the party, but better late than never, amIrite?

	vs.
40-24		26-36
Amway Arena
7:00 PM
Sun Sports HD, NBA TV
Probable starters:
Jameer Nelson	PG	Mike Bibby
Maurice Evans	SG	Joe Johnson
Hedo Turkoglu	SF	Josh Smith
Rashard Lewis	PF	Marvin Williams
Dwight Howard	C	Al Horford
Season series:
10 Dec 2007: Hawks 98, Magic 87

This game is one we can't take lightly. The Hawks may be 10 games below .500, and they may be just 4-8 since acquiring Mike Bibby, but they always play us tough. Joe Johnson seems to be coming around a bit after a slow start to the year, averaging 26 points per game in his last five, including outbursts of 38 and 39 points. Mo Evans and Keith Bogans can slow him down, though. I think.

Other commitments beckon, so I have to cut this preview short. The Orlando Sentinel reports that Jameer Nelson is a game-time decision due to a sore right foot. For more on tonight's game, check out the previews at Bold 'n' Blue and Orlando Magic Blog.

• John Denton of Florida Today spoke to Otis Smith over the weekend. Here's some of what Otis said:

  If I can find a bigger body who can play, well then great. But it has to make sense for us because I'm not doing a deal just because some other teams are dealing.

  Denton believes the Seattle SuperSonics have made Kurt Thomas and Chris Wilcox available, but that Smith hasn't been able to put together an attractive enough package for them. My belief? Otis will make a deal before the deadline, even if it's a minor one. Carlos Arroyo will probably be the bait.

• Thanks to TexSUN for posting NBA dunk contest highlights in the diaries.
• Regarding the Superman dunk: I didn't think it was that great. The costume and pageantry really sold it; the dunk itself wasn't impressive. Hell, of the four dunks Dwight did, it ranked third. The tap dunk and behind-the-backboard windmill were more difficult.
  • The Superman nickname is going to haunt Dwight and the Magic for a while, especially when the green-clad Celtics do a number on us in the playoffs. Prepare for Kryptonite-themed headlines...
• Division Rival Watch: The Hawks obtained Mike Bibby from the Kings over the weekend. Bibby is only slightly better-than-average, but he basically assures the Hawks a playoff spot. Atlanta is a possible first-round opponent for Orlando, so we need to keep an eye out on how they fare the rest of the season.
  • Bibby, Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Al Horford... that's a pretty good team.
• MagicManEvan started his own Magic blog over the weekend. It's called Bold 'n' Blue. Check it out.
• UPDATE: Forgot to mention this note in the first update: Marcin Gortat turned 24 years old on Sunday. Happy belated birthday, Marcin! Here's hoping you see some playing time before your 25th birthday.

We've got the Pistons tomorrow night. See you in the preview thread later.

Drew Gooden and his considerable beard foul Dwight Howard. The Magic fouled their fans last night, flagrantly, by losing to a tired, undermanned, inferior Cleveland team. But you knew that already.
Photo by Gary W. Green, the Orlando Sentinel

• I went through my notes from the Magic's first game against Cleveland this preseason as part of the China Games. Notable passage:

  Hughes shoots over Nelson, draws foul (will be a problem all season).

  Observations like that are why they pay me the big bucks. Wait, I do this for free. Oops.

• The "little bit of conflict" between Dwight Howard and Stan Van Gundy has gotten a lot more press than it's worth; SportsCenter even devoted a brief segment to it. I don't think it's a big deal at all, especially now that they've talked it over (hat-tip: John Denton). As Dwight says, it's like when family members get into a disagreement with one another. It's normal. However, I agree with Brian Schmitz when he says that Stan better watch how he treats Dwight, lest he find himself unemployed.
  • By the way, the statistics indeed bear out Stan's argument that Dwight needs to focus more on his defense:
    • In games in which Dwight lead his team or tied for the team's lead in scoring, the Magic are 11-23.
    • In Magic wins, Dwight averages 20.6 points on 11.3 field goal attempts. In Magic losses, Dwight averages 23.3 points on 13.7 field goal attempts.
  • However, I still think the Magic need to do a better job of feeding him the ball late in games. Foul-line liability or not, he's a dependable scorer. And, as I noted a few weeks ago, Adam Hoff agrees.
• On a much lighter note, Dwight has posted a video of him practicing for the Sprite Slam Dunk contest happening this Saturday night. (hat-tip: FanHouse)
• The Magic have their own YouTube channel (via J.E. Skeets at Ball Don't Lie)
• The first four pictures in the Orlando Sentinel's photo gallery of last night's game depict, in order:
  • LeBron James dunking on Keith Bogans, who is on the seat of his pants;
  • LeBron James shooting over Keith Bogans, again on the seat of his pants;
  • LeBron James driving by Keith Bogans and Jameer Nelson;
  • and LeBron James driving past just Keith Bogans
  Well, you can't spell "defensive specialist" without "special," I suppose.
• Hardwood Paroxysm has Round 6 of Blogger MVP and RoY rankings. Dwight has really slipped out of contention at this point, and I didn't even have him in my top 10. Guess where Hedo Turkoglu's single vote came from...
• It wasn't from David Stern. On Sunday, the NBA's Commissioner named Rasheed Wallace to the Eastern All-Star team to replace Kevin Garnett, who will miss the game with an abdominal injury. Yes, Hedo Turkoglu is probably having a better season, but Wallace's selection doesn't bother me. His skill-set is more similar to Garnett's than Turkoglu's is. Congratulations, Rasheed.
  • Turk still has a chance to make the team if Caron Butler skips the game due to hip trouble. Josh Smith also merits consideration, but I don't buy for a second that Ray Allen does. First, he's not even having that great a season. His per 36 minute scoring (17.3) is his worst since his rookie year, when he scored 15.7 points per 36 (See basketball-reference.) Second, he doesn't even remotely play Butler's position. Third, a given team's record shouldn't dictate how many All-Stars it has. An All-Star roster spot is an individual honor, not a team one.
• The Eastern Conference Powerless Rankings are up at Basketbawful. Matt from Hardwood Paroxysm writes, "You can't spell 'elite' without Hedo. Okay, you can. That's probably a good sign as to the Magic's chances of becoming elite." There's still time before the trading deadline! We can get better! Oh, wait. Otis Smith. Yeah, Matt's got a point.
• 3QC's next post, which will feature some charts and graphs (probably just graphs), should be up later tonight or sometime tomorrow. The subject is defense, and the outlook is grim.

Dwight Howard throws down a dunk in the Orlando Magic's 107-91 victory over the Miami Heat on Wednesday night.
Photo by Fernando Medina, NBAE/Getty Images

There were two big blowouts in the NBA last night: the 76ers crushed the Bucks by 43 points, and the Raptors downed the Wizards by 39. Considering the Magic are more talented than both the 76ers and the Raptors, and considering the Heat dressed only 10 players last night, the Magic should have won by more than 16 points. The game was an anomaly in that it was unsettlingly close before we put it away in the fourth quarter, as you can see in this GameFlow from PopcornMachine. Typically, we'll take a big lead, then give it all back late in the fourth, as we did versus New Jersey and at Charlotte. Oddly enough, those games also took place on Wednesdays. I write this on my brain.

This game illustrates two main points: Hedo Turkoglu is having an amazing season and our point guards are playing pretty terribly.

It's too bad the coaches already turned in their All-Star reserve votes, because Hedo Turkoglu played like an All-Star last night. However, I don't think he stands a chance at making the team. One of the reserve spots went to Joe Johnson (Atlanta Journal Constitution via FanHouse), who is completely undeserving. To be fair, I also left Turkoglu off my hypothetical ballot, but that's only because Josh Smith caught my eye with his incredible defense. He, not Johnson, is the reason Atlanta is in the playoff picture. If Johnson made the team at Turkoglu's expense, it will be a true injustice. Maybe I'm taking this All-Star thing too seriously, but pardon me for wanting players more deserving than Joe Johnson (Jose Calderon, Richard Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince, Turk, Gerald Wallace...) to get the recognition they deserve. I am, quite frankly, disgusted with the coaches' ignorance in this selection.

Something with which I am more disgusted is our point guard play. We're winning in spite of it, not because of it, as some Carlos Arroyo fans would like you to believe. Both he and Jameer Nelson have played terribly lately, which should concern Otis Smith. He says he doesn't want to make any moves before the trade deadline, but if a reasonable offer for a point guard comes along, he might have no choice but to pull the trigger. A title-contending team would probably be happy with either Arroyo or Nelson as its backup point guard, but not at its starter. Every title-contending team gets All-Star-level production from its point guard: Dallas has the one-two punch of Devin Harris and Jason Terry; Detroit has Chauncey Billups; New Orleans has Chris Paul; Phoenix has Steve Nash; Portland has Brandon Roy, who plays point forward; and San Antonio has the flop-happy Tony Parker. The only exception to the rule is Boston, which has three future Hall-of-Famers in its starting lineup. If we're going to contend, we need to upgrade that position. Period. Last night, Jason Williams -- Jason freaking Williams!!! -- had 11 points and 8 assists against us. Darrell Armstrong -- Darrell freaking Armstrong!!! -- came off the bench for the Nets four weeks ago and went absolutely bananas against us. Anthony Carter -- Anthony fre... you get the idea. Run-of-the-mill point guards routinely torch us, and we won't be facing too many of those in the playoffs.

Okay, we won the game. Lovely. But we should have won by a lot more, and there's no reason to think our season is going any better than it was. Yes, I am indeed complaining about playing .617 ball, which is about a 51-win pace. The fact is, we can do better. And I'm not going to be satisfied with anything less than the team's best effort. But hey, at least we've beaten the Heat eight straight times.  

If you've ever wanted an up-close view of Brian Cook's quads, you're in luck.

	vs.
16-5		9-10
Amway Arena
7:00 PM
FSN Florida
Probable starters:
Jameer Nelson	PG	Anthony Johnson
Keith Bogans	SG	Joe Johnson
Hedo Turkoglu	SF	Josh Smith
Rashard Lewis	PF	Marvin Williams
Dwight Howard	C	Al Horford

Very abbreviated preview today. It's the last week of school and I have projects to finish and exams for which to study. Sorry about that.

• That refined Hawks logo sure is sharp, but I wish they kept the away uniforms red instead of changing them to dark blue.
• Hoopinion, which covers the Hawks, doesn't think that Dwight Howard and Rashard Lewis pose as much a threat to Atlanta as Carlos Arroyo and Jameer Nelson do:

  Atlanta has demonstrated no ability to guard quick point guards at any point this season. If Anthony Johnson and Acie Law IV create a third option for Orlando's offense, the game could be out of hand before the Hawks have a chance to start warming up early for the third quarter.

• Tim Povtak reports that Keyon Dooling practiced with the starters over the weekend. Keith Bogans won't know if he can play until just before tip-off.
  • UPDATE: John Denton reports that Bogans has iced his sore thigh and feels good enough to start tonight.
• Bethlehem Shoals thinks Dwight Howard should have won the dunk contest this year and should be favored to win it this year. I'm sure Bullets Forever will have something to say about that, given its campaign to get Nick Young into dunk-contest contention.
• If Joe Johnson and Josh Smith go off on us tonight, well, at least I have them on my fantasy team.

Register your pre-, in-, and post-game comments here.

	vs.
0-0		0-0
Amway Arena
7:00 PM
Probable starters:
Speedy Claxton	PG	Jameer Nelson
Joe Johnson	SG	Keith Bogans
Marvin Williams	SF	Hedo Turkoglu
Josh Smith	PF	Rashard Lewis
Zaza Pachulia	C	Dwight Howard

After a week fine-tuning their skills at "Camp Van Gundy", the Orlando Magic look to open the preseason with a victory over the new-look Atlanta Hawks.

The Magic have a new coach and a new superstar, as well as three open slots in the starting lineup. Tonight, Hedo Turkoglu and Jameer Nelson will fight to keep their starting jobs, while J.J. Redick and Keith Bogans will make their cases to start at shooting guard and fill the void Grant Hill left when he departed for Phoenix in free-agency. Newcomers Kevin Kruger and Torrell Martin will battle with veteran Bo Outlaw for the final roster spot.

It's the start of a new era for Atlanta as well, as the Hawks look to see how well center Al Horford and point guard Acie Law IV, their lottery picks in this year's draft, fit in with the core duo of All-Star shooting guard Joe Johnson and power forward Josh Smith.

Indeed, these division rivals have plenty to prove, not just to one another, but to themselves and to their coaches.