The Magic's Rashard Lewis gets his shit sent back is denied at the basket by the Pistons' Amir Johnson in Detroit's 101-93 victory over the Magic on Friday night.
Photo by Duane Burleson, the Associated Press

The phrase "No Rip? No Problem" started the headline of the Associated Press' recap of the first meeting between these two teams this season. Eliminate the two negatives in the phrase and you're left with "Rip? Problem"... which is exactly what we faced tonight. Richard "Rip" Hamilton scored 32 points on 14-of-22 shooting to lead the Pistons in a curb-stomping against us tonight.

Just a bad game. The Magic, as usual, had no answer for Hamilton or for Chauncey Billups, who repeatedly broke-down our sub-standard defense and got the shots they wanted, usually uncontested. The Magic ended the third quarter on a 14-2 run after getting some much-needed stops, but obviously never capitalized against a team that is clearly in a higher class.

The frustrating thing is, as badly as we played, we could have been right there at the end with a better effort. Letting the Pistons rebound 40% of their own misses is inexcusable, and we have done better against them; they only got 27% in the first meeting and 26% in the second one, which is about average. And I don't know what it is about Detroit, but we just do not capitalize on our free-throw attempts against them: 25-of-39 tonight, 75-of-109 overall. Beating them on Monday did nothing to boost our confidence, as they appear to have a mental advantage on us.

This game leaves me asking lots of questions, but there's one answer it's given me: we have a long way to go to get to Detroit's level. We absolutely have to beat Boston on Sunday if we are to have any shot of legitimizing ourselves in the East. Right now, I'd put the Celtics, Pistons, Cavaliers, and Raptors ahead of us, with the Wizards not far behind. If we don't pick up the defensive intensity, we're looking at another first-round playoff exit.

I feel somewhat obligated to say something nice about one of our players, so I'll get to it:

• Carlos Arroyo deserves recognition for his 16-point, 6-assist effort, 1-turnover effort. He gets bonus points for throwing an elbow at Billups late in the game. Yeah, it was a cheap play, and it's not one that I usually advocate. But the Pistons dish out a lot of punishment, and it was nice to see at least one player take it to them.
• Hedo Turkoglu had a decent third-quarter and was probably our best hope at winning the game; he had his midrange jumper going, which was nice.
• Keyon Dooling didn't play great, but came back in the second half after having to be helped off the floor in the first half with a knee contusion. Way to play through pain, Keyon.
• Jameer Nelson, although inactive, enhanced my viewing experience by wearing a sharp tan suit, a blue shirt, and a blue-and-silver tie. It was glorious in HD.

No donuts tomorrow. I'm disappointed, and I'm sure Brian Cook is too.

	vs.
49-29		19-59
Amway Arena
7:00 PM
Sun Sports
Probable starters:
Jameer Nelson	PG	Randy Foye
Maurice Evans	SG	Marko Jaric
Hedo Turkoglu	SF	Kirk Snyder
Rashard Lewis	PF	Ryan Gomes
Dwight Howard	C	Al Jefferson
Season series:
6 Nov 2007: Magic 111, Timberwolves 103

We should have no trouble with Minnesota at all. The Timberwolves are a decent rebounding team (12th in offensive rebound rate, 15th in defensive rebound rate), but don't do anything else well. They have Al Jefferson, who'd be an All-Star if he played for a team anywhere close to .500. He's one of only four players in the league this year averaging 20 points and 10 rebounds; Dwight Howard, Antawn Jamison, and Carlos Boozer are the others.

Jefferson is a poor defender, though. In an improbable victory over the Suns earlier this year, Jefferson scored 39 points, but allowed Amare Stoudemire to score 33.... on 14-of-16 from the field. Dwight Howard will destroy Jefferson tonight, provided that his teammates do a good enough job of getting him the ball.

They also have free-agent-to-be Ryan Gomes, who can play either forward position and is a solid "glue guy," the kind of role-player I'd like to see us sign this summer. But he told Hoopsworld he wants to stay in Minnesota. What a shame.

I get a feeling like we'll get to see plenty of J.J. Redick, Carlos Arroyo, Pat Garrity, and James Augustine tonight. It's our last game against a Western team, so if there's ever a time to rest the starters, it's tonight.

Go Magic. Get that 50th win, and we can all celebrate with free Dunkin' Donuts Saturday morning.

Here's Mike's recap from tonight's Magic/Bulls game. Thanks, Mike! - BQR

Looking to erase the stench of the awful loss to the Knicks Sunday night, the Magic (49-29, 24-15 home) got off to another slow start in this game, as Chicago jumped out to a 18-10 lead, and Magic C Dwight Howard had to sit with two quick fouls.  Howard then returned and caught fire in the second quarter, as he scored 16 points in the second as the Magic led at the half 62-49.  The Bulls were able to cut into the Magic lead and get within 78-70 with under two minutes remaining in the third quarter, but from that point on, the Magic pulled away quickly and dominated, outscoring the Bulls 37-13 the rest of the way for a 115-83 win.

The focal point of the Magic's offense against Chicago was Dwight Howard.  He did an excellent job setting up down low, the Magic players did a great job in getting the ball to him, and Howard was quick and decisive when he got the ball, either shooting that nice little jump-hook off the glass or dunking the ball, as the Bulls had no answer for Howard, who finished with 30 points on 12 of 15 FG shooting along with 14 rebounds.

Continue reading this post »

SLAM

• Dwight Howard is on the cover of the newest issue of SLAM, which hits newsstands next week.
• It's hard to make Dwight look scary (he's goofy!), but this video feature, brought to our attention by Hardwood Paroxysm, does a damn fine job of it.
• Stan Van Gundy puts into words what a lot of Carlos Arroyo fans surely think. Regarding Jameer Nelson's CT scan:

  "They said his brain was normal. I said I might have to dispute that."

  As the article notes, Jameer is expected to return to the starting lineup this Saturday in Cleveland...

• ... where the Magic can officially lock-up the Eastern Conference's third seed with a victory.

The Magic's Hedo Turkoglu drives past the Hornets' Peja Stojakovic in New Orleans' 98-97 victory over Orlando on Tuesday night. Turkoglu scored a game-high 26 points, but Stojakovic had the last laugh on April Fool's Day, hitting the go-ahead three-pointer in the fourth quarter.
Photo by Kevin Kolczynski, Reuters

Damn. What a way to lose. The Magic dropped a tough one to the Hornets tonight, 98-97, despite having a lead as large as 14 points. Here's the boxscore.

The Hornets wanted this game more, and we only have to look at rebounding to see why. Their 21 offensive rebounds (in 49 opportunities) compensated for their poor field goal shooting. And make no mistake: the rebounds they got weren't balls that took lucky bounces. Jannero Pargo and Chris Paul both took boards away from Dwight Howard. That's a terrible showing on the defensive glass, and we didn't compensate by dominating on our end. Our final offensive rebound total -- 2 -- sets a new franchise low. Inexcusable.

Anytime Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis combine for 50 points on 31 shots, and we hit 13 three-pointers, we should win running away. Instead, the Hornets' extra effort put them over-the-top. They earned this win.

However, the officiating seemed suspect at times. As a rule, I never directly blame a loss on the referees' whistles; it's our fault for letting the game get close enough for a single call to swing momentum in either direction, and the officials weren't the guys beating the Magic to every loose ball. However, I should note the Magic were called for 25 fouls compared to the Hornets' 18. As a result, the Hornets enjoyed a solid 27-15 edge in free throw attempts. The game-changing play came when Maurice Evans was whistled for an away-from-the-ball foul when he got tangled-up with Morris Peterson. Replays showed Peterson clearly pushed Evans first, and fell because he merely lost his balance, but it didn't matter. Peja Stojakovic hit the penalty free throw, then drilled a three-pointer on the resulting possession -- just his second field goal of the night -- to give the Hornets a 96-95 lead they would not relinquish.

Final notes:

• The Magic got the final shot with a chance to win. Coming out of a timeout, Turkoglu inbounded the ball to Lewis, who drove to his right and... dished the ball to Keyon Dooling, who came up well short on the final shot. That's the best we could do? Yes, Tyson Chandler gave Lewis some trouble when he switched to cover him, but Lewis needed to be more aggressive and assertive.
• Sun Sports displayed a graphic at the beginning of the fourth quarter that showed the Magic have the fifth-best record of any NBA team when entering the fourth quarter with the lead. I called it a jinx as soon as it happened. Hate to say I told you so, ALRIGHT.
• Dwight Howard played 42 minutes, yet got just 9 shots from the field and 5 shots from the  line. He needs more touches if we expect to win.
• Jameer Nelson was a late scratch. Carlos Arroyo got the start at point guard, and had a game to forget: no points on 5 shots. Jameer might have been able to make the difference tonight.
• Think we miss Brian Cook? Pat Garrity took Cook's spot in the rotation, going 1-of-4 and registering a plus-minus rating of minus-14. Ouch.

We have a tough matchup Cleveland in a nationally televised affair on Saturday. BIG GAME for us. Sure, we're essentially locked into the East's third seed, but we need to come out and stomp the Cavaliers to show the league and its observers that we can't be written-off.

	vs.
24-46		46-27
Bradley Center
8:30 PM
Sun Sports HD
Probable starters:
Mo Williams	PG	Carlos Arroyo
Michael Redd	SG	Maurice Evans
B. Simmons	SF	Hedo Turkoglu
C. Villanueva	PF	Rashard Lewis
Andrew Bogut	C	Dwight Howard
Season series:
31 Oct 2007: Magic 102, Bucks 83
12 Dec 2007: Bucks 100, Magic 86

Shaquille O'Neal told the Orlando Sentinel yesterday that he'd like to be the Magic's GM once he retires from playing. Well, there's an opening in Milwaukee if he's interested. The Bucks' owner, Senator Herb Kohl, was so dissatisfied with his team's performance -- Milwaukee is the only team Miami's beaten twice this year -- that he didn't even wait until the summer to fire former GM Larry Harris. The other Larry in the Bucks' organization, coach Larry Krystowiak, may find himself unemployed soon. Milwaukee is 29th in defensive efficiency, "bested" only by the New York Knicks. And it's not like the Bucks are injury-riddled or anything; they're just wildly underachieving. That didn't stop them from killing us in December, though, when we shot a comically awful .338 from the field. That's a solid average... for a baseball player. Ugh. Anyway, we owe them one. Let's take it to 'em; we need to tune-up before facing the Hornets on Monday.

As both Brian Schmitz and John Denton noted yesterday, Hedo Turkoglu will play tonight despite his sprained right wrist. Jameer Nelson is out, however, with a concussion suffered when he collided with Dwight Howard's forearm in Tuesday's loss to San Antonio. I kinda wish Stan Van Gundy would make Hedo miss a game or two just as a precaution, but Turk's played in every game this year, which is something of which he is proud, telling Denton yesterday, "One of my goals is to finish 82 games. I’ve never finished it before and hopefully I can this season."

Tipoff's at 8:30 and in glorious HD, so you'll be able to see Michael Redd's prominent bald spot. For a Bucks-centric preview of tonight's game, check out the write-up at BrewHoop, which consistently puts other NBA blogs to shame. We wish we were that good.

Go Magic.

From Brian Schmitz of the Orlando Sentinel (via my mom, who is a saint):

Orlando Magic forward Hedo Turkoglu was diagnosed Wednesday with a sprained right wrist and is listed as day-to-day, much to the relief of the playoff-bound team.

Point guard Jameer Nelson also is listed as day-to-day after leaving Tuesday night's game against San Antonio in the first quarter after being struck in the jaw by teammate Dwight Howard.

Turkoglu sustained his injury in a fall late in the first quarter against the Spurs, and left early in the second period.

WHEW!

Schmitz mentions that Keith Bogans and Carlos Arroyo would likely start for Turkoglu and Nelson, respectively, "if" they are unavailable Friday in Milwaukee. The key word there is "if." The fact that neither player is certain to miss that game is encouraging.

Carlos Arroyo looks none too pleased during the second half of the Magic's game against the Spurs on Tuesday night. Arroyo scored 17 points, but the Magic fell to the Spurs, 107-97.
Photo by Phelan M. Ebanhack, the Associated Press

When Jameer Nelson (chin contusion) and Hedo Turkoglu (sprained wrist) went down in the first period -- here's John Denton's report -- our guys knew they had to step up, and they did:

• Keyon Dooling responded off the Magic bench with 19 points.
• Carlos Arroyo added 17.
• Rashard Lewis put together another fine game and played Hedo's usual role of aggressor, with 24 points on 7-of-8 shooting from the line.
• Dwight Howard piled-up 24 points and 21 boards on the league's best center.

But not even those fantastic offensive efforts were enough to hold-off the defending champion Spurs. We held an 8-point lead in the third quarter before San Antonio scored 15 straight points, quickly silencing what was a raucous Amway Arena crowd and demonstrating why it has won four of the last seven NBA titles. We had no answer for Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, or Michael Finley (?!), wasting an unusually solid bench effort -- our reserves outscored the Spurs', 42-40 -- and an uncharacteristically horrific shooting night from Tony Parker (4-of-13).

Our guard play undid us tonight. Arroyo and Dooling scored alright themselves, but our other guards combined to score 11 points (3-of-15 FGs, 2-of-6 3FGs, 3-of-7 FTs) in 63 minutes. Sure, Jameer Nelson's absence skews that figure a bit, but that doesn't change the collective ineffectiveness of Keith Bogans, Maurice Evans, and J.J. Redick. On the other end, Finley's corpse played out of its his body mind, scoring the first 2 points of the game -- and the first 2 of his season-high 24 -- on a give-and-go with Tim Duncan. The Magic are obviously taking notes on how to run their offense through a big-man, but Dwight has neither the court vision (to pass out of the post effectively) nor the shooting touch (to keep defenses honest when he's pushed off the block) to be a viable post playmaker in the Bill Walton/Lakers Shaquille O'Neal/Duncan mold.

This loss drops us to 46-27 on the season and losers of 3 out of our last four games... and 0-2 in games I predicted we'd win. Hopefully, a few days' rest will get us going again, as we have to get motivated to face the Bucks on Friday night. Hedo and Jameer, we're counting on you two to get healthy.

Other notes

• It was a night for season-highs. In addition to Finley's and Dooling's scoring outputs, Evans posted a career-high 7 assists.
• Howard had another 20-20 game, his first since March 1st versus New York. His previous 20-20 effort came February 13th versus Denver. Perhaps not coincidentally, Stan Van Gundy called Howard out before that game as well.
• The Spurs were called for 18 fouls and the Magic were called for 25, yet the Magic shot more free throws.
• Evidence that the plus/minus stat doesn't accurately tell the whole story when it's applied to only one player: Howard was a minus-14 and Arroyo a minus-15; Parker was a game-best +19. Don't trust it unless it's applied to a unit of players.

I'm not quite sure what to make of this game on the whole, though. On the one hand, we only lost to the World Champions by 10 points even though we were without two of our top-four players; on the other hand, it took superhuman efforts from Arroyo, Dooling, Howard, and Lewis -- not to mention an impressive 41-35 rebounding advantage -- just to pull to lose by 10... at home... when we shot more free throws. Your thoughts?

One year ago today, some chump with a laptop and entirely too much time on his hands I started a website dedicated to the past, present, and future of the Orlando Magic. Yes indeed, Third Quarter Collapse is now one year old! To celebrate that occasion, I've compiled links -- in bullet form, naturally -- to my favorite posts from the old site. Enjoy the archives. Happy birthday to us. And to Hedo Turkoglu, while we're at it. Turk turns 29 today. Bold 'N' Blue has the birthday thread.

• Introduction - The first-ever 3QC post!
• In Defense of Brian Hill - Ugh.
• Streaky Like Superman's Cat: Magic 94, Knicks 89 - Not a particularly special post, but I love the title.
• Intelligent Design - Wondering if Dwight Howard can improve between his third and fourth seasons the way Kevin Garnett did.
• There's A Battle Ahead - Making the case that Magic fans need to GET WILD AND CRAZY to increase Orlando's standing as a sports town. I invoke the words of William Shakespeare and Winston Churchill.
• Brave New World - Just a few days before the start of the postseason, I describe the feeling of impending doom I have. The Magic promptly drop four straight games to the Pistons, and I look fairly intelligent. What that post doesn't tell you is I had the Magic playing the Rockets in the Finals.
• My coverage of the Billy Donovan Saga.
• Reverse the Curse: Forgive Shaq and Bring Him Back - Begging the Magic ownership to reach-out to Shaquille O'Neal and offer him a consultant position with the team once he retires. Not quite sure what I was thinking there.
• The Case for Keeping Grant Hill - Arguing the Magic should re-sign Grant Hill. Again, not sure what I was thinking.
• The Orlando Magic Free-Agency Countdown. Boy, am I glad I did this series.
  • Part One: Vince Carter
  • Part Two: Mo Williams
  • Part Three: Chauncey Billups
  • Part Four: Gerald Wallace
  • Part Five: Rashard Lewis - I had this one right -- does anyone seriously believe we'd be better off with one of the other guys? -- but I was way off-base when I said Lewis "rebounds well." Whoops.
• WKMG: Rashard Lewis Will Sign with Orlando for 5 years, $75 million - If only that dollar amount were accurate.
• ESPN: Grant Hill to Sign with Phoenix Suns - "Grant Hill may be a great basketball player, but if NBA-ers were rated in Consumer Reports, Hill would certainly not be a 'Best Buy'." That's as charitably as I could put it.
• Which Free-Agent Big-Men Should the Magic Pursue? - I begin my love/hate relationship with coding HTML tables.
• End of an Era, Such as it Was: Darko Milicic, Orlando Magic Part Ways - I was really proud of this piece when I wrote it, but it embarrasses me now. But go ahead. The picture at the end is worth the click-through.
• The Future Is Now: Rashard Lewis Formally Introduced at Press Conference - I'm more interested in the fact that I thought Keith Bogans would be behind J.J. Redick on the depth chart. Bogans went on to start the first 35 games at shooting guard for us. Whoops.
• In DeFense of DeVos/In Support of a New Downtown - Hard to believe that just last summer we were worried about the Magic leaving in a few years if they couldn't get that arena built...
• Success! Venues Plan Passes by a 5-2 vote... especially since the arena funding got approved 3 days after I wrote that first post.
• Are the Magic a Playoff Team? Discussion From Around the Web - Also hard to believe that many observers picked Orlando to finish out of the playoff picture, even in the Eastern Conference. To be fair to them, no one could have predicted the Bulls would suck this badly, nor could anyone have predicted that Hedo Turkoglu would have an All-Star season. But still, not even in the top 8 in the East? It was as absurd then as it is now.
• Don't Free Keyon - When the Keyon Dooling-for-Reggie Evans rumors circulated over the summer, I was seemingly the only guy who didn't want the Magic to make the deal. I have no regrets. I LOVE KEYON DOOLING AND THERE'S NOTHING YOU CAN SAY OR DO TO CHANGE MY MIND! THAT'S MY PURSE!
• Carlos Arroyo Shows Masonry Skills as Mexico Upsets Puerto Rico - "If the Magic want to have their new arena built on-schedule, they might consider asking Carlos Arroyo to lend a hand. His brick-laying skills might come in handy." I'm so proud.
• Who's Under Contract: A Tentative 2007/2008 Orlando Magic Roster - Does anyone think I need to work a post like this into the sidebar somewhere? An at-a-glance summary of the Magic's players and their contracts? Let me know.
• The Southeast Division Outlook, Part Three: Miami Heat - "[T]he Heat's grip on the Southeast loosened considerably this summer, making the possibility of Orlando or Washington seizing it much more likely." Yeah, I'll say.
• Tell Harris Rosen Where He Can Stick It - I sincerely hope Harris Rosen read this post. Actually, I hope he's reading this one. Hey, Harris: thanks for failing at your bid to steal an arena from Orlando citizens so you can line your pockets. We really appreciate it, scumbag.
• The Southeast Division Outlook, Part Four: Orlando Magic - "I'm not saying that the Magic are going to win 57 games, but I am saying is that they will improve." 57 games isn't out of the question, actually. The Magic will reach that total if they go 12-1 the rest of the way.
• Summer of 2007: An Orlando Magic Photo Album - I was really scraping for content at this point, as I knew the SB Nation relaunch was just around the corner. Still, I'm happy with this post; pictures are fun!
• Orlando Sentinel: Surgery a Possibility for Tony Battie - The last news-related post at the original 3QC. Sucks that it's such a bummer.
• I've Moved to ThirdQuarterCollapse.com - "Thanks for everything." Thanks, indeed. Here come the waterworks...

When I started 3QC last year, I had no idea it'd ever get this "big." Okay, it's not BlogABull or TrueHoop or anything, but it went from a nondescript Blogspot site averaging 13 hits a week to a fairly reputable SB Nation site averaging 13 hits an hour (give or take). So I'd like to thank the SB Nation crew for letting me come aboard as well as the readers who brought this site to their attention in the first place. I really appreciate the support I've received.

Thanks for everything. I'll be here as long as you guys will have me.

And, uh, for what it's worth: the Magic are 54-29 (.651) since I launched the original 3QC. Just saying.

Corey Maggette spent his rookie season in Magic blue, but could return to Orlando as a free-agent this summer.
File photo by Eric Gay, the Associated Press

In his NBA Confidential piece in today's Orlando Sentinel, Tim Povtak mentions two possible free-agent acquisitions for the Magic this summer: Jason Williams and Corey Maggette:

Point guard Jason Williams of the Miami Heat isn't the only one who will go into free agency this summer hoping the Orlando Magic will give him a call. With the Magic having so many guards in the final year of their contracts -- and with center Dwight Howard locked in for many years -- there are players all over the league hoping for a ride to Orlando.

Shooting guard Corey Maggette of the Los Angeles Clippers will be another one looking to see what the Magic will do, which is why he smiled last week when he was asked about opting out of the final year of his contract to become a free agent this summer [....]

"We'll sit down this summer and see where it goes," Maggette said before the Clippers were pounded by the Magic last week [....]

I have no interest in Jason Williams at all -- seriously, if we want to have a pass-first point guard around to back-up Jameer Nelson, we'd be better off re-signing Carlos Arroyo -- but Maggette is an interesting proposition. So interesting, in fact, that discussing his potential signing merits its own discussion.

Consider these positives: Maggette is averaging career-highs in scoring (22.4 points per game), field goal percentage (.470), and three-point percentage (.413). Additionally, he's fourth in the league this season in free throw attempts per game, and he converts on a solid 84% of them. Adding him to a starting lineup that already features Nelson, Hedo Turkoglu, and Rashard Lewis along the perimeter -- not to mention Dwight Howard down low -- would make the Magic formidable indeed. Furthermore, Nelson, Maggette, and Turkoglu can all handle the ball well, meaning they aren't just going to stand around on the perimeter and launch threes. This year's Magic team is fourth in the league in offensive efficiency, and it's not a stretch to think that standing would surge to first with Maggette in the starting lineup.

There are a few downsides to Maggette, however. For one, he likes to dominate the ball: when he's on the floor, he uses 27% of the Clippers' possessions. Of course, if he's willing to sacrifice " million in guaranteed money next season to play for us, as Povtak suspects he might, I'm sure he'd be willing to share the ball. Second, he's a poor defender. He allows opposing small forwards to post a PER of 18.4 against him. For comparison's sake, note that Dallas forward Josh Howard's PER this season is 18.2. Understandably, I'm a bit leery of signing a guy who lets his man post borderline All-Star numbers. Finally, he's far from a beast on the offensive boards. The player he'd replace in the starting lineup, Maurice Evans, grabs 7.2% of the Magic's missed shots when he's on the floor. Maggette grabs just 3.6% of the Clippers' misses. Don't be fooled by Maggette's higher overall rebound rate: the Magic are 26th in the league in offensive rebound rate and third in defensive rebounding, and Evans is the better offensive rebounder. We could also retain Evans more cheaply than we could obtain Maggette. Even if Evans wants a raise this summer -- and he's earned it, by all accounts -- he'd still only command $2.5 million or so. Maggette would cost us the whole $5.5 million mid-level exception, and he'd be on our books for five seasons.

So, should the Magic make a run at Maggette to improve their already elite-level offense? Or should they look elsewhere, hoping to shore-up their 11th-ranked defense and save money? I'm still undecided. On the one hand, I like the idea of having yet another offensive threat, especially one whose presence could -- gulp! -- allow us to trade Hedo Turkoglu, whose value has never been higher, for help at the power positions. On the other hand, there's no reason to tinker with what's already a fantastic offense, especially not when the defense needs attending to.

Corey Maggette and Maurice Evans statistics from www.basketball-reference.com.