So, about the upcoming draft...

The Magic's chances of getting an impact player with the 22nd overall pick are pretty slim, to put it charitably. Ryan Schwan of Hornets247 exhaustively crunched numbers from every draft pick in the NBA from 1984 to 2005 and came up with a nifty table that outlines those picks' performance based on a letter-grade scale. Here, he describes players taken with picks 20-28:

20-28 continues the trend, with more players falling into the grades D and F(67%) though it is still possible to land a good player. The odds are that one of the players picked in this range will at least be a starter, and another one will land in a rotation. The rest? Not so good.

Indeed, 37% of all players drafted 20th-28th got a grade of "F", which Schwan defines as a player who "never developed and earned minor minutes." Additionally, the data show the Magic are equally as likely to draft a guy who will not play a single minute in the NBA than they are to draft a star (5% each).

For the record, the Magic have owned the 22nd overall pick once before in their history: 2001. They selected Jeryl Sasser, who lasted just 2 seasons in the NBA, both of them with the Magic. It's not hard to imagine why his career ended so early: his averages (2.5 points, 2.3 rebounds, 0.8 assists, 30.3% FGs) are simply horrendous. And to think this guy went 6 picks ahead of Tony Parker.

Oy. I'm getting to be as bad as Buzz Killington.

However, it's not all gloom-and-doom. There haven't been many great 22nd overall picks in recent memory (you have to go back to the 1987 draft to find Reggie Lewis, the last All-Star drafted 22nd) but some players taken 23-30 have worked out okay. Just ask the Celtics (Kendrick Perkins), Lakers (Jordan Farmar, Sasha Vujacic), Pistons (Jason Maxiell, Tayshaun Prince), and Spurs (Tony Parker), the four teams still standing this season, each of which gets key contributions from recent late-first round draft picks. Sure, the odds are decidedly against us getting anyone of that caliber, especially given the questionable draft history of Otis Smith and Dave Twardzik, but it's not impossible.

As for whom the Magic might select, I can't say for sure, but my three favorite NBA Draft sites can. Bookmark this 3QC Mock Draft Summary page for regular updates from DraftExpress, NBADraft.net, and Ridiculous Upside.

As we covered earlier, there's no shortage of outrage/disbelief that Jameer Nelson, the Magic point guard who averaged a mere 10.9 points and 5.6 assists this season, guaranteed a victory for the Magic tomorrow night, and to a much lesser extent, that Rashard Lewis thinks the Magic are a better team than the Pistons. Oh, the nerve of that Jameer Nelson! How dare one of the team's captains expresses confidence in himself and in his teammates, even though they face impossible odds!

All that sound and fury -- seriously, he's the team's captain, and he's not going to guarantee a loss, so get over it -- relegates discussion of the non-call at the end of Game Four to the background. Admittedly, I wasn't that ticked-off about it, but then I read this update from John Denton. Stan Van Gundy is pissed. Emphases added:

"Let's just say this _ (Maxiell) is in the restricted area, it's a block at any other time of the season," Van Gundy fumed following Orlando's practice Monday morning. "(Referee) Mike Callahan raises his hand and you can see it on the tape _ his hand's up and his hand's down and I can't explain that."

Using the video from NBA.com, I tried to get screencaps of the non-call, which looks a lot more obvious here than it did live, from my vantage point in the upper bowl of Amway Arena. Here are the results:

Fig. 1: The beginning of the play. Hedo Turkoglu (with the ball) is isolated against Tayshaun Prince about eleven feet above the foul line. Note Jason Maxiell, the figure I've circled in yellow, lurking in the painted area. And, if you're both a Magic fan and a masochist, take a look at the game clock on the lower-right of the scoreboard.

Fig. 2: Hedo, after driving left, elevates to take a shot. Note that Jason Maxiell has slid over to try to draw a charge, but his foot (circled in yellow) remains in the restricted area. Again, if you're a glutton for punishment, look at the game clock. Hedo took entirely too long to make his move, but that's not the point of this exercise.

Fig. 3: Turkoglu, airborne, collides with Maxiell, still grounded. His foot is still inside the restricted area.

Fig. 4: Turkoglu misss the shot and his teammate, Dwight Howard, misses a tip-in. Two seconds remain on the clock. The thing to notice here is the baseline official, Mike Callahan, raising his right hand to signal a foul while using his left hand to put his whistle in his mouth.

Fig. 5: not even a full second later, Callahan lowers his hand and decides not to call the foul. The game ends, but not before the head official, Joe Crawford, reviews the play on a courtside monitor. He rules that no foul occurred on the play.

IN NO WAY AM I SUGGESTING that Callahan or any of the officials have it out for the Magic, nor am I suggesting that his change-of-heart cost the Magic the game. There's no shortage of blame for that:

• Keyon Dooling
  • for losing his cool at the end of the game, earning himself a technical foul while arguing a shooting foul called on him. Richard Hamilton missed the technical free throw -- Detroit's only missed freebie in the game -- but it still reflects poorly on him, a veteran on an otherwise young team.
• Dwight Howard for
  • not demanding the ball;
  • for missing several gimmes at the basket.
• Jameer Nelson
  • for grinding the offense to a halt in the third quarter by taking too many jumpers.
• Hedo Turkoglu
  • for taking so gosh-darn long to evaluate the final play that he left no time for Howard (or any of his teammates) to get an offensive rebound and a good look at a tip-in.
• Stan Van Gundy
  • for not resting Howard more than he did;
  • for not putting a taller defender on Richard Hamilton down the stretch;
  • for failing to design an effective play at the end of the game.

I merely aim to point out that this non-call (which the official clearly intended to call in the first place) made a tremendous difference in the game, certainly more than the infamous phantom three-pointer that Chauncey Billups made at the end of the third quarter of Game Two, yet no one is talking about it. Of course, the league will offer the standard conciliatory b.s. it always does in these sorts of situations, and nothing about this series will change. The Magic will still have to play Game Five in Detroit, facing a three-games-to-one deficit and incredibly long odds that they will advance.

[Note by Ben Q Rock, 05/12/08 5:58 PM EDT]: 3QC reader Andrew emails this theory:

Is it at all possible that the ref raised his hand to call the charge on Turkoglu but realized that Maxiell was in the restricted zone and put his hand down? Seems like a plausible explanation, right? Like, at least one worth considering in the interest of balance? I mean, the fact that Maxiell's foot was in the circle means he can't take a charge but it absolutely does not mean that anything he does in the circle is automatically a block.

I certainly wouldn't rule that out. Perhaps Callahan believed the game shouldn't end on a foul call, but that doesn't excuse -- at least not to me -- his decision to start to call a foul, then to change his mind.

The Magic held a 60-48 lead over the Pistons with 9:23 to play in the third quarter of Game Four, and gained possession after referee Joe Crawford whistled Detroit's Antonio McDyess for offensive basket interference. At the 9:11 mark, Maurice Evans hit a three-pointer to give the Magic a 15-point advantage. As the media have well documented, the Pistons went on a 15-0 run to tie the game, and eventually won it with Tayshaun Prince's running hook with 00:08.9 to play in the fourth quarter. But whom should the Magic blame for their miscues? This table sums it up, from the 8:55 mark of the third (when Rodney Stuckey missed a three-pointer for Detroit) to the 2:56 mark of the third (when Richard Hamilton tied the game at 63 with a fast-break dunk):

Likewise, whom should the Pistons praise for their resurgence? Again, we have a table:

Yahoo!'s Kelly Dwyer and 3QC reader Eyriq both pointed out the appropriateness of this website's name after the Magic lost thanks to a blown third-quarter lead. I've already explained that I started the original site at Blogspot after a similar loss to the Sacramento Kings during the 2006/2007 season. But that's not when I came up with the site's name. In fact, I didn't come up with it at all.

My mom did.

Flashback to 2006. Somehow or another, my dad won free tickets to a Magic game. We went to claim them, hoping to choose the Lakers' visit to Orlando as our prize. As it turns out, we didn't have the ability to choose which game we'd attend, and the Magic representative gave us two tickets to see the Milwaukee Bucks on January 31st. The Magic won big, 98-73, and held a 56-29 lead at halftime, but almost gave the game back in the third quarter after being outscored, 24-13. "Just another third-quarter collapse by the Magic," Mom said later, describing the game. The phrase stuck with me, and I kept it in mind when I started the old site.

And that was that.

Some notes and references after the jump.

Continue reading this post »

Rashard Lewis celebrates after drilling one of his five three-pointers in the Orlando Magic's 111-86 rout of the Detroit Pistons. Lewis scored a career playoff-high 33 points.

Photo by Doug Benc, NBAE/Getty Images

The Orlando Magic came out blazing against the Detroit Pistons tonight, jumping out to an early 24-8 lead in the first quarter, and staved off a third-quarter run by the Pistons to clean their clock pummel them by a 25-point margin, 111-86.

First, I have to encourage us to curb our enthusiasm: it's only one game. When some Pistons fans left my section late in the fourth quarter, Magic fans taunted them unmercifully, but one Piston fan held up two fingers on one hand and one on the other to symbolize the Pistons still have a 2-1 lead in the series. Further, Detroit was without its best player for all but the first 3 minutes of the game, as Chauncey Billups left with a strained hamstring and did not return. Last, this Pistons team has a poor record in Game Threes, as Orlando Sentinel writer David Whitley mentioned after the game.

But...

The Pistons still got 19 points from Billups' backup, Rodney Stuckey, and got 24 points from their best scoring threat, Richard Hamilton. When Stuckey left after acquiring his second foul, Tayshaun Prince ran the offense well as a point forward and the Pistons played the Magic essentially evenly, outscoring them 16-15 until Stuckey checked back in to run the point. Most importantly, Billups would not have changed the Pistons defense -- or lack thereof -- on Rashard Lewis, who saved his best offensive night for the Magic's most important game of the season. Lewis was simply unstoppable, scoring 33 points on 15 shots (!), taking only what the defense gave him and not forcing the issue. Stan Van Gundy called plenty of isolation plays for him, more than any other game this season, and Lewis converted with a variety of drives. He also had the signature shot of the game to start the fourth quarter. Matched up at the top of the key with Rasheed Wallace, a great defender, right in his face, Lewis jab-stepped a few times, faked, fired, and drilled a three to give the Magic a 76-69 lead. That shot, moreso than the three-pointer Keyon Dooling hit just moments later, sealed the game as a win for us, at least as far as I'm concerned.

But the Dooling three was pretty tremendous. The circumstances around it are as follows: a Dwight Howard missed free throw caromed out long to the right wing. Stuckey grabbed the rebound on the sideline before losing his balance and falling out-of-bounds right in front of Detroit's bench. Initially, official Joe DeRosa signaled for the Magic to get possession. But after Pistons coach Flip Saunders said a few words to him, DeRosa changed the call to a foul on Hedo Turkoglu. On the ensuing (and wrongfully awarded) possession, Rasheed Wallace missed a long two-pointer. The Magic got the rebound and pushed the ball ahead to Dooling, who hit the shot to give the Magic an 80-69 lead.

Another word on Wallace: he was not at his best tonight. He got in foul trouble, jawed with the refs, and the Amway Arena crowd rewarded him with the most vociferous booing it's given any other opponent this season, louder than even the one it gave former Magic players Shaquille O'Neal and Grant Hill in their returns with new teams.

But as big as Lewis was, the difference in the game was Dwight Howard. He had "only" 12 rebounds, but dominated defensively and proved to be, as one in-arena sign termed it, "Pystonite." His six swatted shots discouraged further Pistons penetration, forcing them to take midrange shots, some of which they still managed to convert. Still, I'd rather Detroit score two points via a contested jumper than via a layup, so I can live with those makes.

So, which team should we favor to win Game Four? I'm undecided. On the one hand, our offense has improved in each game and the Pistons might be without Billups, who won't be at 100% even if he does play. On the other hand, this thumping may have woken the Pistons up, and they could come out looking for blood Saturday and effectively end the series with a win. Additionally, as Brian from Empty the Bench points out, the Pistons made a game of it late in the third quarter even with all the odds (no Billups, foul trouble for Wallace, no offense from Jason Maxiell) stacked against them:

And, still, the Pistons whittled the Magic's lead down to just 3 points by the end of the 3rd quarter. Orlando rattled off a 9-0 run to the start the 4th, however, and the Pistons never recovered

 

All the credit in the world to Orlando for their Game 3 win. They deserved it. [....] I'm not convinced they [The Magic] will [win Game 4] though. And I'm not convinced they'll win another game in the 2008 playoffs, period.

Anyway, let's savor this win as best we can tonight... and savor our free donut tomorrow morning.

Note: I wrote this post before last night's Game Two between the Magic and the Pistons.

Last week, Ellen of the Cavaliers blog And One posted this thoughtful rundown of mental toughness in sports using a 2007 article from The Sports Psychologist as a backdrop. As the Magic face the Detroit Pistons, a team famous for playing mind games with its opponents, in these playoffs, it seems pertinent to discuss the Pistons' mental advantage: other than skill, what sets them apart from the Magic?

The Sports Psychologist article which Ellen referenced breaks-up mental toughness into this framework. Refer to the scans at And One for the full explanation of each sub-category:

1. Attitude/Mindset
   • Belief
   • Focus
2. Training
   • Using long-term goals as the source of motivation
   • Controlling the environment
   • Pushing yourself to the limit
3. Competition
   • Handling pressure
   • Belief
   • Regulating performance
   • Staying focused
   • Awareness and control of thoughts and feelings
   • Controlling the environment
4. Postcompetition
   • Handling failure
   • Handling success

The branch in which I have the most interest is "Attitude/mindset." How do the inexperienced Magic, in just the second year of the Dwight Howard Playoff Era, compare with the veteran Pistons, which have made the Eastern Conference Finals in each of the last five seasons with the same core of players? One of the tenets of "Attitude/mindset," as the article explains, is "Having and unshakable self-belief as a result of total awareness of how you got to where you are now." Consider that, then examine this quote from Pistons guard Chauncey Billups, courtesy John Denton:

"That's what we do. We play physical and we feed off other teams when they try to be physical on us," he said. "It's like somebody coming to you house and doing exactly what you wanted. They feed right into what you wanted them to do. (The Magic) play hard, but they don't play as physical as us, but they shoot that three-pointer. If they can do that, they have a chance. But if they want to rough it up, it's going to be tough."

Of course, the Magic know what they have to do. Here's Keyon Dooling, from the same Denton article:

"More so than getting caught up in their physical game, we've got to take care of us," Dooling said. "We've got to make our shots and do what we've been doing all year."

Another tenet is "Having an inner arrogance that makes you believe that you can achieve anything you set your mind to." If there's any single word that describes the Pistons' demeanor, it's "arrogant." Heck, it sure didn't take long for Pistons center Theo Ratliff, who's been with the Pistons for fewer than three months, to adopt Detroit's trademark swag:

"Look at the [veteran big] guys we have. We've already played against the greatest who ever played -- Hakeem [Olajuwan], [Patrick] Ewing, David Robinson -- there is nobody we haven't seen or guarded," said Pistons backup center Theo Ratliff. "Sure, Dwight is an imposing player, but it's not something we're really worried about."

The Pistons aren't worried about containing Howard, the Magic's All-Star center and overall best player? Well, why should they be? His attitude in this series leaves much to be desired. Let's set the scene with two quotes, the first from Pistons forward Jason Maxiell, one of the four different Pistons who defended Dwight in Game One, telling reporters explaining how he and his teammates held our Superman in-check:

"You pretty much just have to get underneath him [Howard] and you're OK," Maxiell said. "He has really strong, broad shoulders, but you get down low and take his legs out from under him. He's not very powerful down low because his legs aren't very strong. There are ways to play him."

When informed of these comments, Magic coach Stan Van Gundy agreed with Maxiell's assessment, saying that Dwight needs a "stronger base." But Dwight himself disagreed, saying flatly, "That's not true. Trust me." So Dwight says he believes in himself, but does that sound bite actually convince you of anything? If anything, it sounds like Dwight's trying to convince himself.

But it gets worse. After the game, Howard said, "I don't think I even looked up at the scoreboard for a while. It's disappointing." Those are disconcertingly weak words for a guy who dominated the first round of the playoffs by having three games of 20-plus points and 20-plus rebounds in the series. Where are those performances? Where is the intensity he showed in the first round when he earned a technical foul after getting in Carlos Delfino's face after Delfino tried to hack him on a dunk attempt? Maybe Rasheed Wallace was right when he likened Dwight to his "intern." Dwight can't be afraid to man-up against Wallace or any of his teammates.

It should go without saying that Dwight Howard is the Magic's key to success, now and in the future. He must get himself back on track after a disastrous Game One in which he scored 12 points and grabbed 8 rebounds -- well below his averages. The Magic have no chance to win this series with Dwight struggling so mightily, especially when Tayshaun Prince shuts-down Hedo Turkoglu, the Magic's other big scoring threat. "Superman" must punish Maxiell, Wallace, Ratliff, and Antonio McDyess -- the foursome which RaptorsForum dubbed Detroit's "Legion of Doom" -- by attacking the basket as soon as he receives the ball and by being more active on the offensive boards. The Pistons are a great team, to be sure, but they aren't invincible. Dwight can be, when he wants to.

Advantage, Magic.

The Magic lead the Pistons at halftime by a score of 52-45. Huh?!

• Orlando Magic points in the first quarter: 20
• Keith Bogans and Keyon Dooling points in the second quarter: 19

To quote the late Vince Lombardi, What the Hell is going on out there?!

In a word: effort. Despite a cold-shooting first quarter, the Magic have stuck with the Pistons and forced them to miss some tough shots. On the offensive end, the Magic are getting the looks they want (for the most part) and converting. The Pistons' bench is one of the best in the league (at least in terms of plus/minus, but tonight, they haven't done much, with a combbined 11 points on 4-of-10 shooting. Jason Maxiell continues to kill us, though. He has 6 boards in 6:33 of playing time, and we'll need to keep him off the glass if we hope to protect this lead. Detroit is bound to make a run in the second half, and we have to be ready.

I'm fairly pleased. Holding a 7-point halftime lead over the hottest team in the league, in its own building, is impressive. Even better is the fact that we've built this lead with Dwight Howard and Hedo Turkoglu shooting poorly; each is 2-of-7 from the field and each has had two of his shots blocked.

Odd note from the first half: Keyon Dooling was called for a blocking foul as Tayshaun Prince barreled into him in transition, but the call was reversed, resulting in a Magic possession. I've never seen a foul-call overruled like that before. Nice that we were the beneficiary of that whistle. Too bad it resulted in a turnover.

• Deja vu all over again: note that in the 3QC recap of the Magic's first loss to the Pistons, the feature photo was Rashard Lewis getting his shot blocked baby eaten by Jason Maxiell. In last night's recap, it was Lewis getting his shot blocked by Amir Johnson. In both games, the Magic wasted good efforts from their starting point guards and from Keith Bogans. The only real difference was that Lewis played fairly well in the first meeting, and not well at all last night.
  • Need4Sheed: A Magical Ride at the Palace
  • Pistons Nation: Game #44: First quarter burst propels Pistons
• Brian Schmitz gets under my skin with this blog entry, in which he asserts Shaquille O'Neal should be an All-Star this season because, "if anybody should get a lifetime achievement award, it's Shaq." He goes so far as to say, "This is where Commissioner David Stern can step in and create another roster spot." Are you kidding, Brian? At least three guards in the West are going to get shafted because of too much talent at that position, and you want to create a "lifetime achievement" roster spot for an injury-prone, past-his-prime, ineffective center in the inferior conference? Give me a break.
• Dwight Howard also thinks Shaq should be an All-Star. Say it ain't so, Dwight.
• Speaking of Howard and O'Neal, Accuscore's Jonathan Lee has this in-depth statistical comparison of the two players at age 22.

The game preview for tomorrow should be up sometime later today.

Hedo Turkoglu, Maurice Evans, and James Augustine mob Rashard Lewis after Lewis' shot at the buzzer lifted the Magic over the Pistons, 102-100, on Monday night.
Photo by John Raoux, the Associated Press

Brett Edwards is a great blogger. In addition to co-writing The Association with Craig Kwasniewski, Edwards regularly contributes to NBA Fanhouse. I've always enjoyed reading his take on NBA goings-on, even if I don't always agree with him.

That's why I find it so odd that he'd make a post like this one at Fanhouse, in which he tries raining on our parade by writing the following:

That's an okay shot by Shard I guess (it did win the game and all) but he sure needed a lot of rim and backboard to get that thing to go down, didn't he? Hey, how about that three by Chauncey though? It was from about 32 feet, and please, he only took two and a half steps, not four as the ESPN goofballs would have you believe. In the end it was irrelevant, as the Magic got the victory, but to me that was a much more impressive shot than the game-winner from Lewis.

I see Brett's point regarding Rashard's shot: it did bounce around for a while before dropping, which makes it a bit less remarkable. I also agree with Brett that Billups was indeed really freakin' far away from the basket on his shot. But I don't buy his argument that Billups' shot was more impressive. Why? It should never have counted in the first place, and there are two reasons why. First, Keyon Dooling did his best to intentionally foul Chauncey when Billups received the inbounds pass, but the foul wasn't called. Second, Billups took approximately 83,422 4 steps before hoisting that trey, which should have been subsequently waved-off due to traveling. Edwards doesn't think Billups took extra steps, but the tape doesn't lie: watch ESPN's fourth-quarter highlight reel (thanks, YouTube) and you'll see what I mean.

However, I guess we should thank Chauncey for making the basket and the liberal officiating crew for not making the proper calls. In a way, those forces collaborated to make our victory that much sweeter for us, and the defeat that much more bitter for Pistons fans.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch Detroit Bad Boys, Matt Watson concedes in his post-game write-up that Billups traveled. He adds this condescending remark towards the end: "So yeah, unbeknownst to you, me or the Pistons, the Magic viewed this game as their own little Ohio State-Michigan." Yes, the Pistons have every right to talk down to us after having owned us for this entire decade. But is it really so bad that a team celebrates a victory over a tough opponent after years of futility? I don't think so.  

We'll see what happens Friday night in Detroit when these teams meet in a rematch; needless to say, the Pistons will be juiced for that one, especially given our excitement last night. Until then, I'm going to enjoy this victory as I should, and not let other people in the basketblogosphere dampen my enthusiasm.

UPDATE: Two more Pistons-centric views for you.

• Need4Sheed wasn't a fan of Detroit's defense:

  You can't let a team shoot 50% from the floor and expect to win. You can do it...but it's not easy.

• Pistons Nation wasn't happy with the play of the Pistons' reserves:

  The bench, out side of Jason Maxiell (11 pts, 7 rbs / 4 off ), continued to struggle. Jarvis went 0/4 from the field while picking up 4 fouls in 12 minutes of play. Stuckey too continued to struggle matching his point output (2) with his turnovers.

  Until further notice they’re NOT the "Zoo Crew", they’ve been playing more like the animal shelter.

Pistons junkies are lucky enough to have three great blogs chronicling their team. Check them all out.

Slow news day. Goodness.

• UPDATE: Earlier, I somehow forgot to link this rather lengthy Hardwood Paroxysm post, which suggests ways to improve the other stuff that happens at NBA games. Bravo, gents. Magic fans who are similarly annoyed with the entertainment at Amway Arena should definitely read this post. It's pretty ridiculous that the "other stuff" -- Stuff the Mascot, the Magic dancers, the JetBlue Crew, etc. -- is collectively called "Magic Live" and billed as an "in-arena entertainment experience." Note to whoever is responsible for coming up with this stuff: the GAME ITSELF is the "in-arena entertainment experience." Good grief.
• In non-basketball news, Dwight Howard is the father of a baby boy who was born on November 18th. The Orlando Sentinel reports the mother is Royce Reed, who was an Orlando Magic Dancer during the 2005/2006 season. Oddly enough, she spent last year as a Miami Heat dancer. She now joins Rony Seikaly, Shaquille O'Neal, and Michael Doleac as people who have worked for both Florida-based NBA teams. Congratulations, Dwight. Just stay away from Jason Maxiell for a while.
  • UPDATE #2: For those of you who are interested in photos of Royce Reed, you can scroll through this picture gallery at the Magic's official website.
• Also from the Sentinel: ABC has picked up the Magic/Celtics game on January 27th. Tipoff has been moved up to 1 PM. It's been five or six years since I've been to a nationally televised, non-playoff Magic game, so that should be exciting.
• Bullets Forever makes the case that Brendan Haywood is the second-best center in the Eastern Conference. Unfortunately, I don't think the coaches will vote him onto the team; Chris Bosh, although listed as a forward on the NBA's official ballot, is more likely to be designated a center for backup purposes.

Is it 9:00 yet?

Because of his strong play of late, Carlos Arroyo may soon start at point guard for the Magic.
Photo by Terrence Vaccaro, NBAE/Getty Images

• Fairly surprising news from John Denton that Carlos Arroyo and J.J. Redick may soon nab the starting guard spots from Jameer Nelson and Keith Bogans. Nelson was already suffering from a sore shoulder and a sore wrist before he received an upsetting text message after last night's game that has left his status for tomorrow night against the Lakers in doubt. His loss is Carlos' gain, as the Puerto Rican sensation has played spectacularly in relief of Nelson. Meanwhile, Bogans has struggled with his shot, and Redick has made the most of his minutes lately. Denton adds that a change won't be immediate:

  It’s hard to imagine a coach being so eager to change things considering the Magic have played this season. But Van Gundy is determined not to let the Magic get content [....]
  I’d be shocked if the lineup is different come Sunday night. But if it is, Arroyo and Redick are the candidates most likely to get promotions.

• The Magic's official team schedule lists the December 14th tilt against the Charlotte Bobcats as being televised on ESPN. That's new, as far as I know.
• One Western Conference executive told ESPN's Marc Stein that he expects the Magic to win a title within the next five seasons:

  "They have so much more offensive firepower than anyone in the East besides the Celtics, and those guys [in Boston] aren't going to be able to do it forever. And the big guy [Howard] in Orlando is just going to get better and better."

• Mike From Illinois and Big Figure, who write for Orlando Magic Blog, break down Rashard Lewis' recent struggles in the comments section of this post.
• Advanced metrics also illustrate Rashard's struggles. His 15.83 PER is 4th on the team and 90th in the league, where he's surrounded by such luminaries as Kyle Lowry and Jason Maxiell.