The NBA released its schedule yesterday, and to much fanfare. In this harsh and unforgiving period of summer in which the biggest NBA news is the Bobcats signing Shannon Brown, ANYTHING will do.

That statement especially pertains to the Magic, who have rounded out much of their roster and, barring a tune-up trade, are just biding their time for the season to begin. Now we know when it'll begin (October 29th) ad where (in Atlanta). What follows the jump is 3QC's take on the Magic's 2008/2009 schedule, which you can view here.

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You may remember this post from May, in which I tried to navigate the NBA's salary cap to see what the Magic could do this summer in free agency. Now that we're closer to the beginning of the free-agent signing period (Wednesday, July 9th), I thought I'd take another look at it. I've presented my findings in a Q-and-A format. For this post, I consulted Larry Coon's NBA Salary Cap F.A.Q., Storyteller's Contracts, ESPN's 2008 NBA Free Agent list, and the Orlando Magic's official roster page. We hope you find this guide helpful.

Question: How many players do the Magic have under contract next season, and what are they owed?

Answer: Currently, the Magic have 11 players under contract, owed a total of $60,553,339 next season. While the league has yet to release its official salary-cap data, we can say with absolute certainty that the Magic are over the salary cap. Here's how everything breaks down by player...

Note: for this table, "Age" refers to a player's age as of October 31st, 2008, when we expect the NBA season to begin.

... and by position...

Make the jump to read the rest of the Q-and-A.

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If you're like me, you care about what NBA teams wear on the court. And, if you're like me, you want a distraction from all this draft madness taking place. We know the Magic are changing their logo and uniforms for this season, their 20th in the league. What we don't know is when we might see said new uniforms and logo. Let's look at some recent history so we have a better idea when we can line-up to buy our Courtney Lee jerseys.

• 2007: Atlanta Hawks
  • What they changed: their uniforms, their alternate logo, and the color scheme of their main logo.
  • When we saw it (or not...)
    • June 25th: the Hawks release a press kit which includes pictures of the new logos and new uniforms. Forward Josh Smith modeled the uniforms in the photos. The jersey number on both uniforms was 07 instead of Smith's usual 5.
    • June 28th: after NBA Commissioner David Stern called their names on draft night, the Hawks' selections were handed a ballcap bearing the team's new alternate logo. The new uniforms were nowhere to be found.
    • July 2nd: the Monday after the draft, Atlanta holds a press conference to introduce Al Horford and Acie Law IV, whom they selected in the draft:

      File photo by Todd Bennett, the Associated Press

• 2006: Charlotte Bobcats
  • What they changed: What they wear during certain road games; they introduced a "Bobcats Blue" alternate jersey.
  • When we saw it (or not...)
    • August 16th: the Bobcats call a press conference to unveil their new uniforms, with draftees/sexpots Sean May and Adam Morrison serving as models.
• 2006: Milwaukee Bucks
  • What they changed: their uniforms. They also updated their main logo with a new typeface to reflect the new jerseys' wordmark.
  • When we saw it (or not...)
    • June 28th: the team releases its new logo and color scheme.
    • September 28th: the Bucks unveil their new uniforms.
• 2003: Orlando Magic
  • What they changed: their uniforms.
  • When we saw it (or not...)
    • June 26th: none of the Magic's picks are on-hand during draft night, but it's a moot point, as teams drafting in the teens never have a custom jersey ready for their picks.
    • June 27th: Keith Bogans, Reece Gaines, and Zaza Pachulia arrive in Orlando for an introductory press conference. Still no sign of the new uniforms.
    • July 16th: the Magic's big free-agent signee, Juwan Howard, arrives in Orlando for his introductory press conference. Magic coach Doc Rivers presents him with a home version of the team's obsolete jersey, numbered 03:

      

      File photo by Phelan M. Ebanhack, the Associated Press

    • October 2nd: players wear the new uniforms for team photographs during media day. Zaza Pachulia was one of them:

      

      File photo by Peter Cosgrove, the Associated Press

What does this extremely limited sample-size tell us? That we could see the new goods as early as next week or as late as -- gulp -- October. At least we'll have free agency and potential trades to keep us occupied until then, should it take that long.

Brent Beck, a die-hard Pacers fan, really wants Indiana to make a move for J.J. Redick, as he explains in a guest post at Indy Cornrows. Considering the Pacers a) are one of my favorite teams, b) Redick is one of my favorite players, and c) the Magic have no use for him, I heartily endorse the idea of sending Redick to Indy. But, as in any trade proposal, one must consider what the Pacers have to offer the Magic. And there's an obvious answer:

Jeff Foster.

File photo by Tim Strattman, the Associated Press

The Magic need help at power forward and center. Foster, a nine-year veteran with a career PER of 14.4, plays both positions. And unlike Brian Cook, the Magic's presumed backup four next season, Foster bangs around the boards with the best of them. And I really mean "the best": he lead the NBA in Offensive Rebounding Rate (the percentage of available offensive rebounds a player snags while on the floor) in each of the last two seasons. His career ORR, 15.31, is fifth-best in the history of the league and tops among active players, even more highly paid ones like Erick Dampier, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, and Ben Wallace. And, wouldn't you know it, the Magic's biggest weakness in their first season under Stan Van Gundy was their inability to clean up their own misses: although they were nigh-elite on the defensive boards, they were horrendous on the offensive ones, finishing 27th in the league in Offensive Rebounding Rate.

Foster's presence has a tremendous impact on the Pacers' rebounding abilities as a team. Data from 82games.com show that when he's on the floor, they grab 50.9% of available rebounds, a 4.7% improvement from their average when he's off the floor. Don't let the advertising quacks fool you. "Foster" is not "Australian for 'beer,'" but rather "San Antonian for 'Rebound.'"

As always, we must consider finances when discussing potential trades. Foster's $5.70 million salary next season more than double's Redick's ($2.14 million), but the Magic can throw in a player to make the trade work. Whom might they package? Look no further than Brian Cook. At 27, he's nearly four full years younger than Foster, and while he's certainly hit his ceiling, he fits in with Indiana's younger players (average age: 26.7) better than Foster did. Additionally, Cook's specialty, three-point shooting, will come in handy in Indiana. Only the Warriors and the Magic attempted more triples last season than the Pacers did, yet they finished eighth in three-point percentage. As a bonus for Indiana, his style contrasts nicely with Ike Diogu, the so-called "steal" in the trade that sent Stephen Jackson and Al Harrington to the Warriors, who plays more of a low-post game.

And if all those reasons didn't do it for you, maybe this one will. Foster's contract expires at the end of next season, giving the Magic cap room to re-sgn Hedo Turkoglu, who will almost certainly use his opt-out clause to negotiate a contract which would reward him for his exemplary play of late. Or, if Turk decides he would rather not stay with the Magic, or if the Magic decide Turk's asking price is too high, they can try to re-sign Foster.

To me, this trade is a low-risk, high-reward proposition for the Magic. They exchange one young player who doesn't play and a veteran who doesn't fit their needs for a veteran who does fit their needs. Heck, I wouldn't mind throwing a future first-round pick into the deal if it would appease the Pacers.

When the Magic traded Trevor Ariza to the Lakers for Maurice Evans and Cook, ESPN's John Hollinger liked the deal because it was the sort of minor move that above-average teams make to take themselves to the next level. Obtaining Foster would be a similar, seemingly minor move for the Magic, but one that would pay even greater dividends. Every serious contender in the NBA gets contributions from role-players: Detroit has Antonio McDyess; San Antonio has Kurt Thomas; Boston has... well, it has three future Hall-of-Famers, so it doesn't count; and the Lakers have Derek Fisher. If the Magic want to make the most of the primes of their stars, they'd do well to acquire Foster (or another similar role-player) who may be slightly past his.

The Magic held a 60-48 lead over the Pistons with 9:23 to play in the third quarter of Game Four, and gained possession after referee Joe Crawford whistled Detroit's Antonio McDyess for offensive basket interference. At the 9:11 mark, Maurice Evans hit a three-pointer to give the Magic a 15-point advantage. As the media have well documented, the Pistons went on a 15-0 run to tie the game, and eventually won it with Tayshaun Prince's running hook with 00:08.9 to play in the fourth quarter. But whom should the Magic blame for their miscues? This table sums it up, from the 8:55 mark of the third (when Rodney Stuckey missed a three-pointer for Detroit) to the 2:56 mark of the third (when Richard Hamilton tied the game at 63 with a fast-break dunk):

Likewise, whom should the Pistons praise for their resurgence? Again, we have a table:

Yahoo!'s Kelly Dwyer and 3QC reader Eyriq both pointed out the appropriateness of this website's name after the Magic lost thanks to a blown third-quarter lead. I've already explained that I started the original site at Blogspot after a similar loss to the Sacramento Kings during the 2006/2007 season. But that's not when I came up with the site's name. In fact, I didn't come up with it at all.

My mom did.

Flashback to 2006. Somehow or another, my dad won free tickets to a Magic game. We went to claim them, hoping to choose the Lakers' visit to Orlando as our prize. As it turns out, we didn't have the ability to choose which game we'd attend, and the Magic representative gave us two tickets to see the Milwaukee Bucks on January 31st. The Magic won big, 98-73, and held a 56-29 lead at halftime, but almost gave the game back in the third quarter after being outscored, 24-13. "Just another third-quarter collapse by the Magic," Mom said later, describing the game. The phrase stuck with me, and I kept it in mind when I started the old site.

And that was that.

Some notes and references after the jump.

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This attitude is what the Magic need more of. From Dwight's comments after the Magic beat the Wizards on Wednesday:

"Everybody knows what LeBron did, everybody remembers," Magic center Dwight Howard said. "I want to be remembered."

[....]

"We want Toronto to feel like they're in hell."

I want Dwight to be remembered, too, and not just for the Superman dunk. He can ascend from Superstardom to, uh, Superduperstardom (?) if he can dominate in the playoffs. As much as we worry about not having anyone who can guard Chris Bosh, it's easy to lose sight of the fact that somebody on the Raptors has to guard Howard. On whom will the Raptors call? How has Dwight done against that person historically?

Enter Rasho Nesterovic, the veteran center who's having a career renaissance in April, averaging 16 points, 6 rebounds, and 60% shooting from the field. But the focus of this piece is defense, so let's get to it. 82games shows us that he held opposing centers to a PER of 13.8 this season. That's all well and good, but how did he and Dwight do against one another in the regular season? Let's take a look:

These resources can't tell us who guarded whom in these stretches, so take the results with a grain of salt. However, it's reasonable to assume that Dwight and Rasho were indeed matched-up with one another. That was most evident in the third game, when the Raptors were without Bosh. Dwight scored 19 points in 29 minutes, but the play-by-play shows he did most of that damage when Rasho was off the floor. Overall, Dwight's total of 12 points in 26:36 against Nesterovic puts him on pace for 16.2 points per 36 minutes, well below his season average of 19.8 points per 36, which suggests that the Raptors can indeed rely on Nesterovic to contain Howard.

But can they afford to play him heavy minutes? Does he negatively impact the offense? While the Raptors are nearly 6 points worse per 100 possessions when Nesterovic is on the court, they shouldn't fret; when on the floor with the Raptors' other starters (T.J. Ford, Anthony Parker, Jamario Moon, and Bosh), Toronto outscores its opponent 82% of the time.

But...

When Dwight's motivated, he's awesome. After Stan Van Gundy famously called him out for his lack of effort, Dwight responded with a 23-point, 24-rebound effort against the Denver Nuggets, who employ Marcus Camby, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, at center.

So, one table and several paragraphs later, we're no closer to figuring out how Dwight will do against Rasho. Considering that Chris Bosh will get his points (probably 35 a game), and that Jamario Moon's athleticism poses problems for Hedo Turkoglu, it's important that Dwight at least scores at his usual rate. He's had trouble with Nesterovic in the past, but the playoffs are a different animal.

And so is Dwight.

This year's Magic team is shaping up to the best since the mid-1990s one that featured Shaquille O'Neal and Dennis Scott, among others. But will it enjoy similar postseason success?
File photo by Chris O'Meara, the Associated Press

It's time to talk playoffs.

Not super in-depth or anything; there's still another month or so to go in the regular season, so a lot of things can change. But there are a few reasons why I want to discuss the postseason now:

• This report from the Daytona Beach News-Journal, which says the Magic need to win only three games -- or have New Jersey and Chicago lose three games -- to wrap-up the East's third playoff berth. (HT: MagicManEvan)
• A few days ago, ESPN posted its current playoff matchup page for the 2007/2008 season.
• Some fans are already getting a bit antsy about it.

I agree with Red's Army, a Celtics blog, when it says the playoff matchups are basically set; that is, we're not moving up from the third seed. Assuming that holds true, we'd match-up with the sixth-seeded team which will likely be either Washington or Philadelphia. For the sake of this post, though, I want to review our matchups with the other four plus-.500 teams in the East to gauge our chances of getting past them to either the Eastern Conference Finals or -- gulp -- the NBA Finals.

The other plus-.500 teams in the East are Boston (51-12), Detroit (46-18), Cleveland (37-28), and Toronto (34-30). We have a combined record of 7-5 against these teams, with only two meetings with Cleveland left. Additionally, we're the only NBA team to defeat both Boston and Detroit twice this season. We're in good shape, right?

Well, not so much. There are several other factors in play here. I submit to you now a list of things to consider before proclaiming us world-beaters:

• We got lucky. A lot. Four of our seven wins went down-to-the-wire, and each time we caught a lucky break.
  • November 14th @ Cleveland: Dwight Howard inexplicably goes 13-of-16 from the foul line and hits the go-ahead free throw with 5 seconds left in overtime. On Cleveland's ensuing possession, LeBron James drives to the basket, only to be tied-up by Hedo Turkoglu. The final horn sounds after the jump-ball, and the Magic escape Cleveland with a win.
  • November 18th vs. Boston: Paul Pierce's three-pointer at the buzzer clanks off, and the Magic win by two points despite letting the Celtics score almost at will in the second half.
  • January 21st vs. Detroit: Rashard Lewis nails a seventeen-foot banker at the buzzer to give the Magic a narrow 102-100 victory.
  • January 27th vs. Boston: Hedo Turkoglu improbably drills a step-back triple at the buzzer -- with Pierce's hand in his face -- to win the game for Orlando.
• Our opponents were hurt. A lot. At the risk of stating the obvious, it's a heckuva lot easier to beat a team when it's missing its best player. Unless that team is Houston, in which case you don't stand a chance.
  • January 27th vs. Boston: All-Star forward and future Hall-of-Famer Kevin Garnett (18.8 points, 9.7 rebounds per game in 2007/2008) misses the game with an abdominal strain. Despite the fact that his replacement, Brian Scalabrine, contributes just 1 point and 1 rebound, the Magic win by a scant three points.
  • March 4th vs. Toronto: All-Star forward and certified Magic Killer Chris Bosh (22.6 points, 8.9 rebounds per game in 2007/2008) misses the game with a sore knee. The Magic don't assert themselves in the first half, and only win because Toronto's T.J. Ford decides to play one-on-five basketball in the fourth quarter.

Point differential is a better indicator of a team's ability than won-lost record is. With that in mind, let's take a look at what point differential tells us about how the Magic really stack-up with the rest of the good teams in the East. Make the jump to read the rest of the story.

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The Magic's offense has improved each month this season. Unfortunately, their defense has declined each month. In February, the Magic have surrendered an eye-poppingly awful 118.7 points per 100 possessions to their opponents. If it keeps up, the team surely won't make it very far in the playoffs. Until further notice, this team should be known as the Orlano Magic. No "d."

It may appear as though those numbers are skewed by the fact that the Magic have faced two of the league's top-three most efficient offenses (Dallas and Los Angeles) this month. However, the other four teams they've played -- Philadelphia, Indiana, New Jersey, and Cleveland -- are well below-average.

The graph below shows the Magic's offensive progression (and defensive regression) by month. Clicking the chart -- and indeed any other chart in this post -- will open a larger version in a new browser window or tab, depending on your settings.

What's to blame for this awful defensive showing? I turned to the four factors, presented in Dean Oliver's book Basketball on Paper and summarized in this page at basketball-reference, to see if there were any trends. The first one I examined is effective field goal percentage:

The Magic have consistently outshot their opponents, but note the sharp increase from January to February. Six games should be a good enough sample-size from which to draw, and I doubt teams' hot shooting against the Magic is coincidental. Closing out on shooters and altering their shots at the basket -- I'm looking at you, Dwight Howard -- will send the opponents' eFG% downward.

Forcing turnovers has been a problem for the Magic all season. Despite playing at a much faster pace this season than last season, the Magic have turned the ball over less frequently. Unfortunately, so have their opponents. The Magic have a few good one-on-one defenders, but no one who consistently steals the ball. Rashard Lewis leads the team in steals per game, but that's only because hardly anyone else even tries, not because Lewis is actually a good defender. To his credit, he did an outstanding job on Dirk Nowitzki against Dallas last Monday.

As a team, the Magic are unbalanced on the glass. They rebound well on the defensive end, but not so well on the offensive end. The best move General Manager Otis Smith can make at the trading deadline would be to acquire a strong rebounding power forward. Tony Battie may return for the playoffs, but he's not a great rebounder, and thus not a viable long-term solution. The same could be said for Seattle's Kurt Thomas and Chicago's Joe Smith, for whom the Magic could trade, but they are more likely to make a difference on the defensive glass.

This table is the one that's most telling. As the season's progressed, the Magic have gotten to the foul line less often, while their opponents have gotten there more often. This trend, combined with the overall decline in defensive efficiency as displayed in the first graph in this post, suggests the Magic have simply gotten lazy or have stopped caring. They're settling for more jump shots -- and making them, as evidenced by their effective field goal percentage increase -- which is a sign of a lack of aggression. Meanwhile, their opponents are getting to the basket and to the foul line seemingly at will.

The key phrase in that last paragraph is "at will." Where is the Magic's desire to be great? What happened to it? In November and December, they showed they could dominate on both sides of the ball, even grabbing second-place in the Eastern Conference for a brief while. They finished the 2007 portion of this season at 22-11. Since then, they're a pedestrian 10-10. Which team will show up tonight against Denver and next week after the All-Star break?

Will it be the team that flexed its muscle during the first 33 games of the season and opened eyes throughout the league?

Or will it be the one that has played unenthusiastically for the last 20 games, content with mediocrity?

Note: Although this post is dry and stat-oriented, it should nonetheless provoke thought. I'll make a lighter post later tonight, time-permitting.

After Jameer Nelson struggled as Orlando's starting point guard in an overtime win at Miami, Magic coach Stan Van Gundy opted to insert Carlos Arroyo, who was key to the Miami win with 11 points in the fourth quarter and overime, at the point. The Magic went an unimpressive 2-3 over their next 5 games, so Van Gundy changed the lineup again, calling upon Nelson to start the next 5 games. The Magic went 2-3 in that stretch as well, and with Nelson nursing a sore foot, Arroyo became the de facto starter once more. Nelson has come off the bench in each of the last two games he's played. Additionally, although Nelson has been available for the past two games, he has received a DNP-CD both times. In the game prior to that, at Philadelphia, Nelson played just 7 minutes.

After last night's loss to Dallas, in which the Mavericks outscored the Magic, 29-16, in the first quarter, I wondered if another lineup shuffle would help the Magic. Using data from the first quarters of each Magic game this season, I attempted to find if any starting backcourt stood out.

As the table above shows, Nelson and Maurice Evans comprise the Magic's best first-quarter backcourt because the Magic outscored their opponents by an average of 3 points per first quarter in the 5 games in which they started. Oddly, the Magic have gone on to win just 2 of those 5 games. Odder still, the worst first-quarter lineup both in terms of point differential and win percentage has the best overall game win percentage. Indeed, it appears as though there is no correlation between Magic victories and which two guards started in them.

I've covered the debate between Nelson and Arroyo ad nauseum on this site, but nevertheless sought a correlation between which point guard starts and whether or not the Magic win. Although the Magic have outscored opponents in only 33% of the first quarters in which Arroyo started, they go on to win 67% of their games. When Nelson starts, the Magic tend to win first quarters and games, but Arroyo's won-lost record is better overall. This similarity struck the Orlando Sentinel's Brian Schmitz, who wrote this entry on his blog:

Let me pull out another old football cliche about a quarterback controversy: If you have two quarterbacks, you don't have one. If you have two point guards, my, you ought to be out there trying to make a deal.

In a later entry, Schmitz asserts the Magic should make a trade for a power forward. Given that Arroyo and combo-guard Keyon Dooling have expiring contracts, and given that expiring-contract-owner Pat Garrity has seen a sudden and inexplicable return to the team's rotation, it's reasonable to believe the Magic are ready to make such a trade.

But perhaps the two-guard position is the problem. Once again, I used the data I had to discern if any starting two-guard resulted in more wins. None of them distinguished himself in terms of first-quarter performance. Further, Bogans and Evans have similar game win percentages. J.J. Redick, the team's fourth shooting guard, has played sparingly and has not made a single start. Because of his role (or lack thereof) on this team, Redick has asked Magic GM Otis Smith to trade him, which Smith is reluctant to do.

Ultimately, the results of this analysis show only that this team's first-quarter performance is not indicative of its overall success; indeed, the Magic are just 21-25-4 (.460) in first quarters this season. The team's high win-percentage when Arroyo and Evans start is clearly not due to anything that backcourt combination produces together, because among lineups with at least 5 starts, it is the one that performs the worst in the first quarter.

The inconclusive backcourt data, coupled with the fact that Orlando has used just two different starting frontcourt combinations this season, points to the bench as the unit that has the largest impact on the Magic's chances of winning or losing. If the Magic indeed trade for a power forward, as Schmitz recommends they do, they could shift Rashard Lewis from power forward to small forward (his natural position) and Hedo Turkoglu from small forward to shooting guard. The sixth-man role would depend on which players Smith included in the hypothetical deal.

Quarter-by-quarter statistical data available at PopcornMachine. Here is a sample boxscore from that site, with quarter-by-quarter and cumulative stats. Click on a player's name to see his quarter-by-quarter performance.

The Magic got off to a fast start during the 2007/2008 season, winning 16 of their first 20 games. But there's been a turning point. Since a home loss to the Indiana Pacers on December 7th (a day which will live in infamy...?), the Magic dropped 13 of their next 20 games. In other words, their 24-17 record isn't as good as it looks.

So, why have the Magic been playing .350 ball since that game? Let's compare the team's offense before and after, using offensive rating (points per 100 possessions) and the Four Factors as measuring tools:

Apart from the marked increase in offensive rebound rate, the team's offense has remained fairly consistent throughout the season. It can't be to blame for the team's struggles. Let us now turn to the team's defense:

The team has regressed significantly on defense. Opponents are scoring more efficiently against the Magic, as the improved offensive rating and effective field goal percentage suggests. Also noteworthy is the increased frequency with which Orlando has allowed its opponents to parade to the foul line. The team has gotten lazy on defense, choosing to foul shooters rather than to take them out. In no way am I advocating thuggery, but the Magic need to be more assertive in challenging opponents' shots, especially in the immediate basket area.

Just how sharply has the Magic's defense declined? Had the Magic continued to hold opponents to a 102.1 offensive rating, they would be the second-best defense in the league behind only the Boston Celtics. Conversely, had the team played the whole season allowing an offensive rating of 112, it would be 27th and rated ahead of only the lowly Memphis Grizzlies, New York Knicks, and Minnesota Timberwolves.

Stan Van Gundy asserted after his team's 119-115 loss to the Jazz on January 12th that its defense "is one of the worst in the league right now. If it doesn't improve, it's going to be a long season." He is absolutely right.
Luckily, there are 41 games left in the season for the Magic players to regroup and commit themselves to defense; a 50-win season is unlikely, but still within reach. The first 20 games of the season showed that this team has the potential to be an elite defensive unit. Now it's a matter of the team playing to the best of its ability.

Thanks to the following sources:

• KnickerBlogger, for its advanced stat page
• Basketbawful, for his analysis of the Suns' struggles
• Dean Oliver for his book, Basketball on Paper, which explains the Four Factors
• Tom Ziller of Sactown Royalty, for his guidance